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thenoflyzone
Sep 9, 2019, 11:12 PM
5th freedom routes are a vestige from the past. It was a matter of time. CX now has 4 daily non stops to the NY area. This will go up to 32x weekly after the end of YVR-JFK.

People want non stop, and YVR-JFK demand wasn’t enough for the route to make money. Sadly HKG-YVR will go down to 14x weekly in the process as well.

CareerShow
Sep 10, 2019, 12:20 AM
Airliners.net has a thread about Cathay discontinuing JFK-YVR fifth freedom flight in the new year.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1430987

The source is an article from The Points Guy: https://thepointsguy.com/news/cathay-pacific-will-end-its-new-york-vancouver-flights-next-spring/

Really too bad, the flight times were ideal, and the service quality was A+. With this loss in capacity (only AC year round YVR to NYC) I wonder if AC adds an additional daily flight, or if WS, DL, UA pick up the lost capacity.

Also, sad to see YVR - HKG down to 2 daily on Cathay.The article says that the 2 daily flights will be served by 438 seat 777....however, it appears these aircraft are equipped with regional seating.....not sure that is correct.

CloudInspector
Sep 10, 2019, 3:50 AM
I could see WS adding YVR-JFK. It would be a good addition, seeing as how they already serve JFK from YYC and the JV with Delta would help build connections at both ends.

thenoflyzone
Sep 10, 2019, 12:40 PM
I could see WS adding YVR-JFK. It would be a good addition, seeing as how they already serve JFK from YYC and the JV with Delta would help build connections at both ends.

Let's not forget that between DL, AC and UA, there is still a decent amount of capacity between Vancouver and New York in the summertime.

DL already serves YVR-JFK seasonally. I dont think WS will be able to compete on YVR- NYC before the JV is approved (at least not with a B737), because they would essentially be competing with DL to JFK and with AC - which has the corporate traffic tied up nicely with the daytime B789- and UA on YVR-EWR). It would also go against the WS strategy of feeding the YYC hub. Why feed DL at JFK when you can feed your own hub at YYC? Also, on the westbound leg, it's not like WS has much to offer the DL clientele through YVR. So they would need to rely on O&D.

Maybe DL could go year round JFK-YVR because of this (although US Point of sale is highly seasonal on the route), or AC adding a second daily flight (a red eye, but that departs early enough to make use of the preclearance). Once the DL/WS JV gets approved, WS could takeover the route.

If WS really wants to compete on YVR-JFK, they would need to match AC and send a B789 on the route, to try and steal some corporate traffic away from AC. But they would be chasing mostly O&D and would run the risk of running the route at a deficit for a few years, while they build up their brand on the route. Ideally, they would announce some YVR-Asia flights to go along a YVR-JFK. The chances of all of this happening? Not great.

Remember, all signs point to a recession just around the corner.

My 2 cents.

Langdon0630
Sep 10, 2019, 8:07 PM
The official end date is 28MAR2020 per Routesonline.

Cathay Pacific discontinues Vancouver – New York JFK service in late-March 2020
By Jim Liu

Posted10 September 2019 19:35

Cathay Pacific in late-Tuesday (10SEP19; Hong Kong time) adjusted inventory system, which sees the closure of Vancouver – New York JFK reservation, a route it has been operating since July 1996 when the oneWorld carrier launched New York JFK service.

Reservation for travel on/after 28MAR20 is now closed. Previously filed summer 2020 schedule as follows.

CX888 YVR2255 – 0700+1JFK 77W D
CX865 JFK2150 – 0050+1YVR 77W D

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/286281/cathay-pacific-discontinues-vancouver-new-york-jfk-service-in-late-march-2020/

So sad. I have three one-way YVR - JFK flight booked using points in April 2020. I wonder how I will get to New York now...

officedweller
Sep 10, 2019, 8:55 PM
Pics by me Thursday, Sept 5th:

https://i.imgur.com/AN8AZme.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/UvX9kcR.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/1hwnwMO.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/wcLE5lp.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/Kf0yTO5.jpg

SpongeG
Sep 11, 2019, 8:52 PM
Air Philippines doesn't fly YVR to JFK anymore, does it? on a facebook post about this service ceasing some people were like just use Philippines air as they do the route.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 12, 2019, 12:46 AM
The CX YVR cuts are part of a much bigger picture.
CX cutting capacity significantly as passenger volumes to/from HKG plummet.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VW0ZB

thenoflyzone
Sep 12, 2019, 1:27 AM
The CX YVR cuts are part of a much bigger picture.
CX cutting capacity significantly as passenger volumes to/from HKG plummet.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1VW0ZB

CX is cutting HKG-YVR from 16x to 13x weekly as of Oct 29. This is directly related to what is going on in HKG.

Cancelling YVR-JFK next March has little to do with the protests in HKG. The writing was on the wall for that one a long time ago. Surprised it lasted this long, considering CX management confirmed the route has been losing money for years.

moosejaw
Sep 12, 2019, 2:42 AM
Cancelling YVR-JFK next March has little to do with the protests in HKG. The writing was on the wall for that one a long time ago. Surprised it lasted this long, considering CX management confirmed the route has been losing money for years.


Agreed not a huge market currently and besides CX has three direct flights daily from JFK to HKG. Why stop off at YVR?

jollyburger
Sep 12, 2019, 7:01 AM
But they'll increase the seating density on the remaining 14 flights HKG-YVR by dumping First Class.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/286281/cathay-pacific-discontinues-vancouver-new-york-jfk-service-in-late-march-2020/

Johnny Aussie
Sep 12, 2019, 10:07 AM
But they'll increase the seating density on the remaining 14 flights HKG-YVR by dumping First Class.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/286281/cathay-pacific-discontinues-vancouver-new-york-jfk-service-in-late-march-2020/

Only the JFK originating flight had F class. Looks like the overall capacity from YVR-HKG will remain the same. More adjustments coming it looks like to a few stations.

Hourglass
Sep 12, 2019, 12:15 PM
Only the JFK originating flight had F class. Looks like the overall capacity from YVR-HKG will remain the same. More adjustments coming it looks like to a few stations.

No choice really. CX passenger traffic down 11% in August because of the protests, and the drop in J was even more.

On a different note, is it me, or are the lines at security getting worse? Last international flight in July, I think it took me 45 mins. Flew domestic earlier this week, and the queues were also pretty slow.

trofirhen
Sep 12, 2019, 3:01 PM
In 1997, with the cession of HK back to China, despite the semi-autonomous status that the city enjoyed, I think it was in the back of everyone's mind that a hard crackdown would come.
It was not a question of 'if' but of 'when' and the open-ended question was 'when.' This, of course, has played havoc with HK's international standing as a major world financial status.
..... https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singapore-reclaims-top-spot-in-competitive-economy-ranking
Singapore has taken the lead now (as everyone knows, better than I: see article) and that nonstop to Singapore is more necessary than ever, it seems, even if on the less-glamorous AC.
If Canada is trying to get a nonstop to Singapore, would this not be most timely? Don't wait for SQL to come to us; they won't, it seems. Air Canada has to go Singapore, like it or not.
This is not intended as trolling; just an observation, and I hope it will be taken as such. Thank you.

Rogie
Sep 13, 2019, 1:55 AM
YVR AIF going up by $5 to $25 on January 1. AIF within B.C. stays $5.

SpongeG
Sep 13, 2019, 5:24 AM
No choice really. CX passenger traffic down 11% in August because of the protests, and the drop in J was even more.

On a different note, is it me, or are the lines at security getting worse? Last international flight in July, I think it took me 45 mins. Flew domestic earlier this week, and the queues were also pretty slow.

I fly out Saturday at 3 usually and the lineup at C gates is usually 5 minutes or so. If I go earlier it can be 15+ minutes.

Later on, in the evening it can be quite long cause they security for the B gates is closed. I usually come back around 7-8 pm and the C gate line is quite long when I pass it.

SpongeG
Sep 14, 2019, 5:56 AM
“We are expecting a couple of new ones,” he said. “I cant tell you exactly what they are – possibly inter-continental. We would have more new routes within the U.S., I think, if it weren’t for the 737-Max issue.”

Cathay Pacific to cut Vancouver-New York route next spring

Frequency on Cathay Pacific's Hong Kong-Vancouver route will also be reduced

By Glen Korstrom | September 13, 2019

Vancouver International Airport CEO Craig Richmond told BIV on September 12 that he is disappointed that Cathay will no longer fly to New York out of his airport.

“You don’t like to lose any flight,” he said. “I’ve taken that flight myself. It’s very popular with a lot of Vancouverites. The fact is the airline decided they’re not making enough money and they’re going to redeploy those aircraft. We would do everything we can to try to convince them if it is possible to not pull that flight, but, honestly, I haven’t had a chance to talk to Cathay. We just found out about it two days ago.”

Richmond said that the good news about flight routings out of his airport is that there are likely to be some new routes to announce soon.

“We are expecting a couple of new ones,” he said. “I cant tell you exactly what they are – possibly inter-continental. We would have more new routes within the U.S., I think, if it weren’t for the 737-Max issue.”

https://biv.com/article/2019/09/cathay-pacific-cut-vancouver-new-york-route-next-spring?fbclid=IwAR2WNrNwcooo_esfV44zGWSuDFqq0jn54prCZKlHloiXqSjDTY34UmzdAgk

nname
Sep 14, 2019, 9:53 AM
YVR posted the terminal map for the D pier extension

https://i.imgur.com/iMJUSco.png
(http://www.yvr.ca/en/passengers/navigate-yvr/terminal-maps)

So from 59 to 67, 4 of them are bridge gates and 4 are remote stand, not sure which is which.

nname
Sep 14, 2019, 9:58 AM
“We are expecting a couple of new ones,” he said. “I cant tell you exactly what they are – possibly inter-continental. We would have more new routes within the U.S., I think, if it weren’t for the 737-Max issue.”

Does the Air North route count as new ones? :D

The Air North milk run had finally opened for reservation, at least between YVR, YLW, and YXY (other cities are not in the destination drop-down list yet). The route had been operating as charter since late June.

Effective Sep 19, 26
4N473 YVR-YCD-YLW-YXS-YQH
4N474 YQH-YXS-YLW-YCD-YVR

Effective Oct 3-31 (weekly on Thursday)
4N473 YVR-YCD-YLW-YXS-YQH-YXY
4N474 YXY-YQH-YXS-YLW-YCD-YVR

Yes, you can book a 4-stops flight to YXY, at a higher price compared to the other direct or 1-stop flights.

(YQH = Watson Lake)

trofirhen
Sep 16, 2019, 2:22 PM
Regarding the dropping of CX YVR to JFK, although the service may be super, and it's JFK, not EWK, it seems to me that this is a blow to YVR prestige more than anything else.
Craig Richmond mentioned several routes, not announced yet yet, which may be 'intercontinental.' For me that's exciting. Mr. Richmond is cautiously noncommital at the moment,
but the idea of several (two or more) intercontinental routes, IMO, outweighs the loss of CX to JFK. :2cents:

LeftCoaster
Sep 16, 2019, 10:45 PM
Correct as intl capacity is down around that range. Seems to be a good result of better LF perhaps. Maintaining the meteoric rise over the last decade is a good sign even with slight downturn and it’s a fact the MAX has had an impact.

A few more routes from Australia to China also being dropped.

My rough calcs were showing intl seats per week down 2.0%. The surprise for me is that Asia-Pac was showing the biggest drop in capacity at over 6.5% but it was flat. There must have been some quiet planes that are flying a bit fuller this year.

LatAM seats were up 9.7% with misc capacity down 14.3 so that's a bit concerning. May have seen the endless frames AeroMexico was adding to YVR finally slow down.

Transborder I've been expecting to rise so that one makes sense to me, although I was expecting a bigger boost. No doubt the Max had an effect here since US tourism numbers are way up.

TBH, I think we would see YVR-DEL goes to 77W and YYZ-BOM goes back to year-round before we'll see YVR-BOM...

Yep, that said I would still not be surprised to see a BOM flight one day. If India keeps growing the way it has been its connections to NA will continue to grow, and it won't all be VFA like today.

“We are expecting a couple of new ones,” he said. “I cant tell you exactly what they are – possibly inter-continental. We would have more new routes within the U.S., I think, if it weren’t for the 737-Max issue.”

I'm of two minds on this. On one hand Vancouver keeps growing like stink and leading the country in economic growth rates. On the other hand if the economy slows down next year it looks like we could get hosed out of a good year of growth.

I don't buy the whole it was growing too fast nonsense, if you average YVRs growth over the past 20 years it's barely beating inflation. The last few years were only making up for losses after 2001 and 2008.

nname
Sep 16, 2019, 11:34 PM
LatAM seats were up 9.7% with misc capacity down 14.3 so that's a bit concerning. May have seen the endless frames AeroMexico was adding to YVR finally slow down.

I'm surprised the LatAM seat actually goes up... WS pulled it's daily MEX flight, and 4O did not have additional summer flights to MEX and CUN this year, offset by AM adding a few extra flights per week. With all others stay pretty much the same, the capacity should drop?

LeftCoaster
Sep 16, 2019, 11:47 PM
Ahh damn, I had removed it in my 2018 sheet. My bad. Drop makes sense now.

Gordon
Sep 22, 2019, 5:23 PM
Ho is the construction on the Remote Stands that were going to take part of the Jet set parkig area going?

nname
Sep 22, 2019, 8:05 PM
Effective Oct 29, 3U will convert YVR-CGO-CTU into non-stop YVR-CTU. There will no longer be direct service between YVR and CGO.

Also, departure and arrival at YVR will move to nighttime slot. Seems like the nighttime international bank is quickly catching up the noon departure bank. If there is no new or increased service, seems there will be 3-4 spare gates at D/E pier next summer at both the noon and midnight bank.

3U8501 CTU2355 - 2015YVR 330* 25
3U8502 YVR2215 - 0400+2CTU 330* 25

* = probably pending equipment change to 359... does 330 even have the range?

YVR-SHE-CTU remain unchanged 1x weekly service.

thenoflyzone
Sep 22, 2019, 9:34 PM
... does 330 even have the range?

An A332, yes. An A333, no.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 22, 2019, 9:45 PM
Effective Oct 29, 3U will convert YVR-CGO-CTU into non-stop YVR-CTU. There will no longer be direct service between YVR and CGO.

Also, departure and arrival at YVR will move to nighttime slot. Seems like the nighttime international bank is quickly catching up the noon departure bank. If there is no new or increased service, seems there will be 3-4 spare gates at D/E pier next summer at both the noon and midnight bank.

3U8501 CTU2355 - 2015YVR 330* 25
3U8502 YVR2215 - 0400+2CTU 330* 25

* = probably pending equipment change to 359... does 330 even have the range?

YVR-SHE-CTU remain unchanged 1x weekly service.

Maybe YVR won’t have to use remote stands then. Always good to have a little spare capacity and not maxed out all the time if managed properly. Most likely will become a 359 as 332s continue to get phased out. Consistent with mainland Chinese carriers making changes with very little notice sometimes.

MEL is also losing direct CGO service the end of November.

thenoflyzone
Sep 23, 2019, 4:39 PM
Thomas Cook Group just went belly up......

Condor is a part of Thomas Cook Group. They are still operating, but applied to the German Government for some much needed cash. Let's see what happens.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ge...093244564.html

Condor's operations in Canada include service to YXY, YVR, YYC, YHZ and YYZ.

trofirhen
Sep 23, 2019, 5:14 PM
Thomas Cook Group just went belly up......

Condor is a part of Thomas Cook Group. They are still operating, but applied to the German Government for some much needed cash. Let's see what happens.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ge...093244564.html

Condor's operations in Canada include service to YXY, YVR, YYC, YHZ and YYZ.
Reading the article, especially about the now-jobless Condor employees leaving in tears suggests that this is in fact the end of Condor. A shame.
Nevertheless, if they do go out, and stay out of the market, would any airline offer flights from Germany, stepping in to Condor's place?
Would love to see Frankfurt, Munich, maybe Zurich year- round (even with reduced winter frequencies, of course), although it's doubtless a few years before YVR sees that.

whatnext
Sep 23, 2019, 7:19 PM
Thomas Cook Group just went belly up......

Condor is a part of Thomas Cook Group. They are still operating, but applied to the German Government for some much needed cash. Let's see what happens.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ge...093244564.html

Condor's operations in Canada include service to YXY, YVR, YYC, YHZ and YYZ.

And now one can clearly see why Transat was wise to sell-up while they still could. The package holiday business model is fading.

thenoflyzone
Sep 24, 2019, 4:41 AM
And now one can clearly see why Transat was wise to sell-up while they still could. The package holiday business model is fading.

That might be the case in Europe, but not quite so in North America, and even less in Canada.

TS wasn't doing as bad as Thomas Cook was. Also, Sunwing seems to be doing just fine.

Over in Europe, what is killing the package holiday business is the likes of Ryanair and EasyJet, which fly from every nook and cranny to every other nook and cranny, for under 100 Euros. You don't have that here. If you want to go from Vancouver to Varadero, there is only 1 airline offering non stop service. Over in Europe, half a dozen airlines step over each other on the same leisure routes, with dirt cheap fares. Thomas Cook simply couldn't compete.

I firmly believe TS was on the right path, with their A321 purchase (fleet commonality with the A330), and the phasing out the old A310s, they would have reduced their operating costs and could have turned things around. We shall never know.

nname
Sep 24, 2019, 7:02 AM
YVR Long-Haul change for S20:

HKG - 789 replaces 77W.
PEK - 789 replaces 77L.
KIX - 5x weekly 788/789 June-July, increase to 6x weekly starting August. One of the weekly flight operates with 789.
ZRH - 5x weekly 788/789, one of the weekly fight operate with 788 instead of 789.
CDG - Reduce to 3x weekly, 333 replaces 788. This 333 will alternate between CDG and DUB out of YVR.
FRA - 77W replaces 789.
LHR - 1x daily flight change to 77W, the other remains 788.

So currently

TPE (234567) and MEL still shares 3x 789
DUB (1357) and CDG (246) shares a 333
KIX (3) and ZRH (1567) shares a 789 with 2x weekly left (24)
KIX (12567) and ZRH (3) shares a 788 with 1x weekly left (4)

So where will they put those extra planes on Tuesday and Thursdays?

connect2source
Sep 24, 2019, 1:56 PM
Thomas Cook Group just went belly up......

Condor is a part of Thomas Cook Group. They are still operating, but applied to the German Government for some much needed cash. Let's see what happens.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ge...093244564.html

Condor's operations in Canada include service to YXY, YVR, YYC, YHZ and YYZ.

Was just about to book a Condor flight FRA-YVR late Oct but after the news I've changed my plans. Even though they're still operational I have my concerns about Condor due to their request for the loan.

Last year I witnessed the collapse of Primeria while waiting for my WOW flight STN-KEF, ironically WOW is gone now too.

LeftCoaster
Sep 24, 2019, 6:52 PM
YVR Long-Haul change for S20:

HKG - 789 replaces 77W.
PEK - 789 replaces 77L.
KIX - 5x weekly 788/789 June-July, increase to 6x weekly starting August. One of the weekly flight operates with 789.
ZRH - 5x weekly 788/789, one of the weekly fight operate with 788 instead of 789.
CDG - Reduce to 3x weekly, 333 replaces 788. This 333 will alternate between CDG and DUB out of YVR.
FRA - 77W replaces 789.
LHR - 1x daily flight change to 77W, the other remains 788.

So currently

TPE (234567) and MEL still shares 3x 789
DUB (1357) and CDG (246) shares a 333
KIX (3) and ZRH (1567) shares a 789 with 2x weekly left (24)
KIX (12567) and ZRH (3) shares a 788 with 1x weekly left (4)

So where will they put those extra planes on Tuesday and Thursdays?

Looks like AC is planning on Condor not making it with that big upgrade to FRA. All in all a good increase of roughly 4.5%.

Interesting that an A333 will run both CDG and DUB. I doubt it's being based at YVR, as there is no pilot base here, but that would mean another A330 transcon to YYZ or YUL.

Long term if AC decides to keep the 330s around for a while I wouldn't be surprised to see them set up a base here to run some trans atlantic service from YVR.

With the AC increases I'm actually showing an increase in long haul seats if Hong Kong Airlines, Interjet and Condor all live through next summer. That's a mighty big if though.

nname
Sep 24, 2019, 7:03 PM
Looks like AC is planning on Condor not making it with that big upgrade to FRA. All in all a good increase of roughly 4.5%.

Most likely it's planned long ago, and was already changed in their internal system sometimes last week before the bankruptcy news was first revealed sometimes over the weekend. I do think Condor will survive though, the loan had been approved by the government of Germany. The same cannot be said for the other two...

I'm more interested that, with the increases, I wonder which will be the next route to go year-round... FRA (AC), KIX, or ZRH... or maybe the MUC from LH will become year-round also?

As for CDG, doesn't seems like it's performing too well. Maybe AC will transfer the frequencies to TS once the merger is completed?

Rogie
Sep 24, 2019, 9:29 PM
Long term if AC decides to keep the 330s around for a while I wouldn't be surprised to see them set up a base here to run some trans atlantic service from YVR.


AC executives have said repeatedly on investor conference calls that they like the 330 and plan to keep them in the fleet. So what you're suggesting is possible.

casper
Sep 25, 2019, 1:58 AM
AC executives have said repeatedly on investor conference calls that they like the 330 and plan to keep them in the fleet. So what you're suggesting is possible.

They like them enough that they are buying more of them. They recently picked up some of the A330 that TAP Air Portugal was replacing with newer aircraft.

I think the preference is to fly them to-from Europe. There range is limited going to Asia. That said, I was on an A330 a few years ago from YVR to Narita. At the time it was great aircraft to upgrade on. Lots of seats in J.

trofirhen
Sep 25, 2019, 7:14 AM
/please excuse the edit/....
I'm more interested that, with the increases, I wonder which will be the next route to go year-round... FRA (AC), KIX, or ZRH... or maybe the MUC from LH will become year-round also?

As for CDG, doesn't seems like it's performing too well. Maybe AC will transfer the frequencies to TS once the merger is completed?
Personally speaking, I would very much like year-round FRA and MUC on LH. It would be a step up in the maturing of YVR's European network.
As of next summer, with AC, CDG total is 8/week in the summer but only 3/week in winter. Could AC handle 2/week in winter to CDG for 5/week? (with AF, of course). Is the market there?
And if ZRH coud be made year-round, with even only 3/week in winter, we'd have Europe licked .... especially if that 3/week TK to IST happens,
although Seattle will probably get TK (offering 5/week slots, compared to only 3 at YVR). That is a real shame.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 26, 2019, 12:29 AM
Most likely it's planned long ago, and was already changed in their internal system sometimes last week before the bankruptcy news was first revealed sometimes over the weekend. I do think Condor will survive though, the loan had been approved by the government of Germany. The same cannot be said for the other two...

I'm more interested that, with the increases, I wonder which will be the next route to go year-round... FRA (AC), KIX, or ZRH... or maybe the MUC from LH will become year-round also?

As for CDG, doesn't seems like it's performing too well. Maybe AC will transfer the frequencies to TS once the merger is completed?

Definitely a shift in capacity to Europe. I also think AC’s decision to put 77W’s on FRA is independent of anything happening with DE.

FRA has gone from 788->789->77W Since it started.

AC YVR-CDG is effectively competing with AF, TS and now WS via YYC.
If it were doing “well” they certainly wouldn’t be reducing it while all other routes are actually adding capacity. 11 flights per week between the three carriers to CDG is still a lot of seats.

Hourglass
Sep 26, 2019, 10:38 AM
Interesting article on flightglobal.com: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/changi-eyes-nonstops-to-vancouver-and-chicago-461012/

I find it interesting that Changi seems to be lobbying specifically for SIN-YVR.

jollyburger
Sep 26, 2019, 4:06 PM
Interesting article on flightglobal.com: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/changi-eyes-nonstops-to-vancouver-and-chicago-461012/

I find it interesting that Changi seems to be lobbying specifically for SIN-YVR.

They said the same thing last year so I wouldn't expect an announcement soon

https://www.anna.aero/2018/07/04/singapore-vancouver-is-skyscanner-unserved-route-of-the-week-with-130000-searches/

trofirhen
Sep 26, 2019, 6:10 PM
Interesting article on flightglobal.com: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/changi-eyes-nonstops-to-vancouver-and-chicago-461012/

I find it interesting that Changi seems to be lobbying specifically for SIN-YVR.

They said the same thing last year so I wouldn't expect an announcement soon

https://www.anna.aero/2018/07/04/singapore-vancouver-is-skyscanner-unserved-route-of-the-week-with-130000-searches/
This is encouraging at any rate. There may not be an announcement "soon," but it shows that YVR is in the upper echelon of preferred destinations for SIN; no need to hang our heads about Seattle. Now, just to snag two or three other biggies on other continents, and we'll be in the 'A' list of international airports. (B+, anyway)

Johnny Aussie
Sep 26, 2019, 7:04 PM
Cargo stats for Canadian Airports for 2018 released by Stats Canada.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=2310025401

YVR added another 40,000 tonnes to over 321,000 tonnes in 2018.

Over the 2014-2018 period YVR added over 104,000 tonnes.

YVR is the only airport in Canada that discloses monthly cargo stats. 2019 cargo stats for YVR are down 8.4% YTD 2019.

YYZ still by far the largest of course...

YYZ 481,155
YVR 321,328
YUL 119,386
YHM 105,692
YMX 88,668
YYC 86,204
YWG 57,827
YEG 28,475
YHZ 28,118

thenoflyzone
Sep 26, 2019, 10:32 PM
The overseas international cargo (non US) breakdown for our busiest airports is interesting as well:

YYZ 292,247 (61% of total cargo)
YVR 164,256 (51% of total cargo)
YUL 92,645 (78% of total cargo)
YYC 20,054 (23% of total cargo)

YHM, YMX and YWG breakdowns are not available, but intl non US cargo is historically less than 2% of their respective cargo numbers.

thenoflyzone
Oct 1, 2019, 11:31 PM
YVR August 2019

Total: 2,681,698 -1.2%

Domestic 1,282,643 -1.2%
Transborder 651,410 +0.2%
Asia Pac 435,325 -2.5%
Misc 51,344 -8.7%
Europe 260,976 -1.1%

Total international incl. transborder 1,399,055 -1.2%

YTD total: 17,991,557 +1.5%

trofirhen
Oct 2, 2019, 12:25 AM
YVR August 2019

Total: 2,681,698 -1.2%

Domestic 1,282,643 -1.2%
Transborder 651,410 +0.2%
Asia Pac 435,325 -2.5%
Misc 51,344 -8.7%
Europe 260,976 -1.1%

Total international incl. transborder 1,399,055 -1.2%

YTD total: 17,991,557 +1.5%
Yikes!! This cannot be due mainly to the 738Max groundings. It must be due to to the political turmoil in Asia, and the fact that the German economy is retracting.
(That has a huge ripple effect on all of Europe)

thenoflyzone
Oct 2, 2019, 1:39 AM
Don’t know if this was mentioned, but Interjet will cancel YVR-CUN at the end of this month, among other routes. Granted, Interjet as a whole won’t last much longer to begin with.

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/1164796153415659520

trofirhen
Oct 2, 2019, 1:48 AM
Don’t know if this was mentioned, but Interjet will cancel YVR-CUN at the end of this month, among other routes. Granted, Interjet doesn’t have long left to begin with.

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/1164796153415659520
For a while now, Interjet has been listed as having financial problems, and probably nearing the end of its corporate existence, so this isn't all that much of a surprise.
I wonder if any other Mexican airlines (notably Volaris) could fill that gap, and/or introcuce new destinations, in particular Guadalajara, which is now served from Seattle and Portland both.

thenoflyzone
Oct 2, 2019, 11:30 AM
For a while now, Interjet has been listed as having financial problems, and probably nearing the end of ots corporate existence, so this isn't all that much of a surprise.
I wonder if any other Mexican airlines (notably Volaris) could fill that gap, and/or introcuce new destinations, in particular Guadalajara, which is now served from Seattle and Portland both.

You tell me.

What are the chances of a Mexican ULCC flying to one of the most expensive countries in the world and offer service to GDL out of all places?

Slim to none. Same reason why you dont see Southwest or Spirit flying to Canada. Cost structure is simply too high.

trofirhen
Oct 2, 2019, 12:40 PM
You tell me.

What are the chances of a Mexican ULCC flying to one of the most expensive countries in the world and offer service to GDL out of all places?

Slim to none. Same reason why you dont see Southwest or Spirit flying to Canada. Cost structure is simply too high.
Excuse me. I did not know that Volaris was an ULCC (if that is what you were saying your post). I just thought that, given that they fly to SEA, they might fly YVR also.
I know SEA is not as expensive as Vancouver, but it is still a wealthy and fairly expensive city nonetheless - with people moving out of Seattle to elsewhere in Puget Sound region.
So I assumed that there might be a market for GDL - YVR, but as you point out, I guess there isn't.

Klazu
Oct 2, 2019, 2:45 PM
YVR August 2019

Total: 2,681,698 -1.2%

Domestic 1,282,643 -1.2%
Transborder 651,410 +0.2%
Asia Pac 435,325 -2.5%
Misc 51,344 -8.7%
Europe 260,976 -1.1%

Total international incl. transborder 1,399,055 -1.2%

YTD total: 17,991,557 +1.5%

Oh man, you must have a party over there. The sky is falling on YVR!

thenoflyzone
Oct 2, 2019, 2:59 PM
Oh man, you must have a party over there. The sky is falling on YVR!

Why? Because of the red?

I made no comment. It’s only a 1% drop. Not the end of the world. Considering what is going on in HKG and China, i’d say it’s not too bad. Europe and Misc are disappointing though. I think we can agree on that.

If anything, I fear the situation in China could affect non stops to that area from secondary Canadian airports, such as YUL’s PEK and PVG flights. AC could very well end up consolidating China flights back at YVR, in order to improve yields.

nname
Oct 2, 2019, 7:56 PM
Yikes!! This cannot be due mainly to the 738Max groundings. It must be due to to the political turmoil in Asia, and the fact that the German economy is retracting.
(That has a huge ripple effect on all of Europe)

My response from last month are still true:

Big cut in domestic and transborder capacity due to MAX grounding.
Political situation in Asia, which probably affect YVR more than other Canadian airport.
WS pulled out of MEX this summer.
YYC competes with YVR for European connecting traffic.

AFAIK, the number for YYZ is pretty weak too. YUL have some gain, but it's nothing compared to the huge increase observed last year and in the early part of this year.

The direct YVR-Europe flight just can't complete with the $500-700 round-trip that WS offered via YYC last summer.

But still...

Same here, I was expecting a decrease of about 2-3%...

Now it's more in line with my expectation and matches the actual seat change.

If anything, I fear the situation in China could affect non stops to that area from secondary Canadian airports, such as YUL’s PEK and PVG flights. AC could very well end up consolidating China flights back at YVR, in order to improve yields.

I don't see YUL flight to PEK and PVG go away. I always though YUL-HKG was a high possibility. In fact, I've seen report that AC complained they cannot get slot at HKG for additional service (which implies the intention for starting YUL or second daily YVR/YYZ). But now, there's no chance.

AC had further cut YVR-HKG capacity. Over the off-season, now it goes down to as little as 4x weekly...

trofirhen
Oct 3, 2019, 1:04 AM
Everything you stated makes total sense. At least, when they get the MAX up and running again, that'll help transborder. And as I understand WS to FRA and CDG are summer seasonal.
Is that correct? YVR - CDG in the off season is only 3x / wk on AF, but at least it's still there.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 3, 2019, 10:48 PM
My response from last month are still true:

The direct YVR-Europe flight just can't complete with the $500-700 round-trip that WS offered via YYC last summer.

But still...

Now it's more in line with my expectation and matches the actual seat change.

Wow a whole page of blocked posts... must have been enlightening.

If those fares were as low as you mentioned then the yields on the new YYC-Europe flights must be shite. That was expected tbh.. to fill those planes a huge reliance would be on connecting traffic. Looks like they did a good job filling them but at what cost?

Note though "scheduled" Europe was up 1.4%. The decline was in "charter" Europe... the budget conscious traveller would be snapping up those $500-$700 return flights who cares if there is a connection. Even with Europe down only 1.1% is not huge.
Asia PAC would have to be mainly due to HKG. YVR-HKG is YVR's largest Asian route. Makes sense for a decrease but really only 2.5% based on that is a blip.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 4, 2019, 1:45 AM
Looks like Omni is going to be helping out with the Max grounding even more.

Omni 762 will take over the daily AC YVR-PHX this winter doing a scissor with HNL or OGG.

Why sit on the ground in YVR all day. This perhaps opens up another potential daily flight if they utilise the downtime of the other OGG/HNL flight.

nname
Oct 4, 2019, 8:11 AM
Looks like Omni is going to be helping out with the Max grounding even more.

Omni 762 will take over the daily AC YVR-PHX this winter doing a scissor with HNL or OGG.

Why sit on the ground in YVR all day. This perhaps opens up another potential daily flight if they utilise the downtime of the other OGG/HNL flight.

Just thinking of posting this.

This seems to be big capacity boost for YVR-PHX, which will remain daily except for 6 weeks in Jan/Feb where the route will run 5 or 6x weekly.

Omni schedule now run until Apr 19, 2020.

YYCguys
Oct 4, 2019, 9:30 PM
And as I understand WS to FRA and CDG are summer seasonal.
What??? Wow!!! When did WS announce FRA service? From YVR, YYZ or YYC?

Johnny Aussie
Oct 4, 2019, 10:10 PM
Just thinking of posting this.

This seems to be big capacity boost for YVR-PHX, which will remain daily except for 6 weeks in Jan/Feb where the route will run 5 or 6x weekly.

Omni schedule now run until Apr 19, 2020.

I'm curious if any other Transborder route moves to the Omni 762. Good use of equipment otherwise it sits on the ground all day.

nname
Oct 4, 2019, 11:58 PM
I'm curious if any other Transborder route moves to the Omni 762. Good use of equipment otherwise it sits on the ground all day.

No, I did a full scan of AC2400 to 2499 for one week each month between Jan and Apr last night, only OGG, HNL, PHX showed up.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 5, 2019, 6:38 AM
No, I did a full scan of AC2400 to 2499 for one week each month between Jan and Apr last night, only OGG, HNL, PHX showed up.

Perhaps they will change another route soon. Maybe PSP? Cannot be too long a flight to get it back to run one of the evening Hawaii flights.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 6, 2019, 7:13 PM
Possible announcement from Turkish coming...?

Don’t know the legitimacy of the following but... here goes...

https://mobile.twitter.com/AnalystTK/status/1180916266376269825

This guy on airliners.net ankaraflyjet seems to be in the know...

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1432099&p=21707365#p21707365

“I am Happy to announce that Turkish Airlines signed for thrice weekly Istanbul Vancouver starting from mid2020 subject to availability of 787 or A350. It will be made public in the coming days and we are happy to see that happening as Turkish Canadians...”

nname
Oct 6, 2019, 8:59 PM
DL extending YVR-JFK service for 5x weekly (x23) starting April 2. The route might be going year-round?

trofirhen
Oct 6, 2019, 10:22 PM
:???:Possible announcement from Turkish coming...?

Don’t know the legitimacy of the following but... here goes...

https://mobile.twitter.com/AnalystTK/status/1180916266376269825

This guy on airliners.net ankaraflyjet seems to be in the know...

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1432099&p=21707365#p21707365

“I am Happy to announce that Turkish Airlines signed for thrice weekly Istanbul Vancouver starting from mid2020 subject to availability of 787 or A350. It will be made public in the coming days and we are happy to see that happening as Turkish Canadians...”


Thank you for this. Natuarlly, I'm thrilled reading this. The key element is that they HAVE SIGNED. As such, the legal entry into the deal leadup to TK at YVR early 2020 (( Seattle, willl get TK also:shrug:? 5/wk 797:(:???:)) But this is a step in the right direction. There is the possiblity of future frequency expansion. For YVR, a foothold, a major intercontinental hub super-located, and more global reach for YVR.


This does not appear on the wwweb at time of posting. It will be interesting to see if a formal announcement is made.

nname
Oct 7, 2019, 7:19 PM
:???:


Thank you for this. Natuarlly, I'm thrilled reading this. The key element is that they HAVE SIGNED. As such, the legal entry into the deal leadup to TK at YVR early 2020 (( Seattle, willl get TK also:shrug:? 5/wk 797:(:???:)) But this is a step in the right direction. There is the possiblity of future frequency expansion. For YVR, a foothold, a major intercontinental hub super-located, and more global reach for YVR.

If this is indeed true, then there's no reason for TK not to start the route after the route is granted. Otherwise it'll pretty much guaranteed the Canadian side not granting any request from TK in the future.

PS. 797 will not be in service for at least another 10 years. :rolleyes:


This guy on airliners.net ankaraflyjet seems to be in the know...

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1432099&p=21707365#p21707365

“I am Happy to announce that Turkish Airlines signed for thrice weekly Istanbul Vancouver starting from mid2020 subject to availability of 787 or A350. It will be made public in the coming days and we are happy to see that happening as Turkish Canadians...”

I think in the earlier post he said he is directly involved with the bilateral talk with the Canadian government...

Johnny Aussie
Oct 7, 2019, 8:46 PM
I think in the earlier post he said he is directly involved with the bilateral talk with the Canadian government...

Thanks. I thought it was something like that. A bit of inside knowledge!

thenoflyzone
Oct 7, 2019, 10:23 PM
Possible announcement from Turkish coming...?

CTA just tweeted about it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CanBorder/status/1181200052980736006?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3ACTA_gc%7Ctwcon%5Etimelinechrome&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F%3Furl%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Ftwitter.com%252FCTA_gc%26ref_src%3Dtwsrc%255Etfw%257Ctwcamp%255Eembeddedtimeline%257Ctwterm%255Eprofile%253ACTA_gc%26ref_url%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.otc-cta.gc.ca%252Feng%23

twoNeurons
Oct 7, 2019, 10:26 PM
Turkish needs more flights to validate the existence of the new massive IST airport is my guess.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 8, 2019, 5:21 PM
Turns out ankaraflyjet is a director of the Canadian Turkish Business Council.

Sounds like he has been directly involved in negotiating this new route.

trofirhen
Oct 8, 2019, 5:27 PM
Turns out ankaraflyjet is a director of the Canadian Turkish Business Council.

Sounds like he has been directly involved in negotiating this new route.
Based on what you know, would you say that all this heralds a YVR - IST startup maybe next year, or is it still in the negotiating stages?
Otherwise stated, is the ink dry, and the process going forward to having Turkish Airlines at YVR maybe next year?

nname
Oct 8, 2019, 8:34 PM
Seems like AC had closed the reservation for the second daily YVR-LHR. So S20 the route will be operate with just a daily 77W (400 seat).

Not sure what will they do to the LHR slot now, but this will free up a 788 that can be used for new route and/or add frequency. After this change, only 13x weekly left for 788 routes out of YVR at different time of the day (7x BNE at 2345, 5x KIX at 1100, 1x ZRH at 1310). AC's 788s are all over the places next summer at YVR, YUL, YYZ, and YOW... so more changes are likely.

TheGreatestX
Oct 9, 2019, 1:56 AM
Seems like AC had closed the reservation for the second daily YVR-LHR. So S20 the route will be operate with just a daily 77W (400 seat).

Not sure what will they do to the LHR slot now

Back to YEG?

casper
Oct 9, 2019, 7:00 AM
Back to YEG?

I think a second Calgary flight is more likely.

Using it for Winnipeg would be going back to the routes they have in the 90s. However that is going back to a time when BA had to route their 747 Heathrow-Vancouver-Seattle-Heathrow to fill the aircraft. In comparison today BA using an A380 serving Vancouver alone. Times have changed.

Nites
Oct 9, 2019, 11:34 PM
I flew Westjet domestic yesterday when I usually fly AC and I noticed that to board the plane you have to walk through this tunneled area that almost seemed like it was kind of temporary considering that there was no finishings in the interior.

Is this permanent or is there going to be a expansion?

Gordon
Oct 10, 2019, 4:00 AM
Were You Flying Encore or mainline?

Nites
Oct 10, 2019, 8:37 AM
Were You Flying Encore or mainline?

Encore

trofirhen
Oct 10, 2019, 1:01 PM
Turkish needs more flights to validate the existence of the new massive IST airport is my guess.
If that incudes 3x / week service YVR - IST, so be it!

YYCguys
Oct 10, 2019, 3:51 PM
I flew Westjet domestic yesterday when I usually fly AC and I noticed that to board the plane you have to walk through this tunneled area that almost seemed like it was kind of temporary considering that there was no finishings in the interior.

Is this permanent or is there going to be a expansion?

YYC’s Encore departure gates have the same kind of setup. Not a glamorous look at all! Downright spartan and reminds me of YUL’s old terminal, actually. I hope that both YYC and YVR airport authorities do put some love into those areas in future capital projects but I am probably wishfully thinking.

CloudInspector
Oct 10, 2019, 4:17 PM
YYC’s Encore departure gates have the same kind of setup. Not a glamorous look at all! Downright spartan and reminds me of YUL’s old terminal, actually. I hope that both YYC and YVR airport authorities do put some love into those areas in future capital projects but I am probably wishfully thinking.

My understanding is the big pile of dirt next to the encore gates is destined to become WestJet’s commuter terminal, similar to the Jazz setup at the C pier.

nname
Oct 10, 2019, 4:25 PM
Not sure if they finish updating the schedule, so far seems like big cut for European routes. This is all that's left out of YVR:

TS 334 YVR-AMS 1...... 332
TS 776 YVR-LGW 1...... 332
TS 274 YVR-LGW ..3.... 332
TS 346 YVR-MAN .2..... 332
TS 162 YVR-MAN ......7 332
TS 771 YVR-YUL 1234567 73H
TS 948 YVR-YYC ..3.... 73H
TS 931 YVR-YYZ 1.345.7 73H
TS 933 YVR-YYZ 12345.7 73H
TS 961 YVR-YYZ .2..... 332

nname
Oct 10, 2019, 4:49 PM
Perhaps they will change another route soon. Maybe PSP? Cannot be too long a flight to get it back to run one of the evening Hawaii flights.

Only HNL, OGG, PHX, as announced by AC:

https://www.aircanada.com/ca/en/aco/home/book/travel-news-and-updates/2019/flights-operated-on-behalf-of-air-canada-4.html

phesto
Oct 10, 2019, 5:22 PM
Anyone flown on Omni? I just booked on a 762 to HNL. Just curious what to expect (good or bad).

nname
Oct 15, 2019, 9:35 AM
The entire TS wide-body (332) schedule out of YVR for next summer. So far all the rotations had been accounted for, except for possible 2x weekly AMS which I marked with "AMS??"

12....7
TS 960 YYZ-YVR ......7 332 13:15 - 15:25
TS 162 YVR-MAN ......7 332 17:25 - 10:25
TS 163 MAN-YVR 1...... 332 12:05 - 13:35
TS 334 YVR-AMS 1...... 332 15:25 - 10:05
TS 335 AMS-YVR .2..... 332 11:45 - 12:30
TS 961 YVR-YYZ .2..... 332 14:10 - 21:45

1234567
TS 346 YVR-MAN .2..... 332 15:20 - 08:20
TS 347 MAN-YVR ..3.... 332 10:20 - 11:45
TS 274 YVR-LGW ..3.... 332 13:50 - 07:20
TS 275 LGW-YVR ...4... 332 10:10 - 12:00
---> AMS??
TS 345 AMS-YVR ....5.. 332 13:20 - 14:05
TS 804 YVR-LGW ....5.. 332 16:20 - 09:50
TS 805 LGW-YVR .....6. 332 11:30 - 13:20
TS 284 YVR-MAN .....6. 332 16:00 - 09:00
TS 285 MAN-YVR ......7 332 10:40 - 12:10
---> AMS??
TS 373 AMS-YVR 1...... 332 10:35 - 11:30
TS 776 YVR-LGW 1...... 332 13:30 - 06:55
TS 777 LGW-YVR .2..... 332 09:45 - 11:35


So 1 plane will be here for an entire week, plus another one for 3 days. This is down from last summer, where there's 2 plane + 2 days.

Here is the narrow-body schedule (73H). All domestic trans-con flights uses a single flight number for next summer, but I split it so the flights can be arranged more easily:

1234567
TS 770 YUL-YVR 1234567 73H 19:45 - 22:30
TS 771 YVR-YUL 1234567 73H 10:15 - 18:15

1.345..
TS 930 YYZ-YVR 1.345.. 73H 07:45 - 09:55
TS 931 YVR-YYZ 1.345.. 73H 11:00 - 18:35
TS 932 YYZ-YVR 1.345.. 73H 19:45 - 21:55
TS 933 YVR-YYZ 1.345.. 73H 23:00 - 06:35

.2.....
TS 932 YYZ-YVR .2..... 73H 19:45 - 21:55
TS 933 YVR-YYZ .2..... 73H 23:00 - 06:35

......7
TS 930 YYZ-YVR ......7 73H 07:45 - 09:55
TS 931 YVR-YYZ ......7 73H 11:00 - 18:35

.23....
TS 930 YYZ-YVR .2..... 73H 07:45 - 09:55
TS 118 YVR-PVR .2..... 73H 11:00 - 17:50
TS 119 PVR-YVR .2..... 73H 18:50 - 22:00
TS 948 YVR-YYC ..3.... 73H 08:10 - 10:45
TS 863 YYC-YYZ ..3.... 73H 12:00 - 17:50

...567
TS 862 YYZ-YYC ....5.. 73H 19:40 - 21:55
TS 949 YYC-YVR ....5.. 73H 23:00 - 23:35
TS 118 YVR-PVR .....6. 73H 11:00 - 17:50
TS 119 PVR-YVR .....6. 73H 18:50 - 22:00
TS 118 YVR-PVR ......7 73H 11:00 - 17:50
TS 119 PVR-YVR ......7 73H 18:50 - 22:00
TS 933 YVR-YYZ ......7 73H 23:00 - 06:35


1 plane will fly to YVR daily from YUL (and stay overnight here), while the rest seems to be based at YYZ. This is an increase from last summer.

The total will be

3x LGW (down from 7x)
3x MAN
3x AMS (up from 2x)
0x CDG (down from 3x)

12x YYZ (up from 9x ?)
7x YUL (up from 5x ?)
3x PVR (up from 1x)
1x YYC
0x CUN (down from 1x)

Seems like the airlines seems to be all cutting from the same destinations next summer (CDG, CUN)...

vanlaw
Oct 15, 2019, 7:19 PM
Turkish Airlines has confirmed IST-YVR flights. No schedule info yet

https://investor.turkishairlines.com/en/announcements/disclosures/detail/15-10-2019-public-disclosures

https://onemileatatime.com/turkish-airlines-vancouver/

LeftCoaster
Oct 15, 2019, 10:29 PM
Great news about Turkish, rumoured a long time glad to see it finally this close to happening (just waiting on it being bookable in the system before it's official IMO).

As for the rest of this thread over the last few weeks, woof. What a mess. Cuts everywhere, it's honestly worse than the oil crash in Calgary. WTF is going on? Every announcement is another cut or reduction.

At this point Air Transat should just pack up and leave, what a joke of a schedule. It's not even just pushing all intl flights through YYZ and YUL either, since domestic capacity is barely up, not even close to covering the international cuts. The sooner AC folds that airline the better.

Just to put these cuts all into perspective, YVR-London is down 22% peak season next year. And that's not some big looking drop because of a relatively small base, that's a 22% drop on Vancouver's biggest international route. How are those people going to get to London next year, of further afield? The economy in Vancouver is still expanding, the population is expanding faster than it has in the last decade, and flights are getting cut like we're in an economic collapse. It makes no sense. Let's hope that YVR-LHR 787 gets put on another YVR route and not based somewhere else because it's pretty ugly right now.

nname
Oct 15, 2019, 11:29 PM
Great news about Turkish, rumoured a long time glad to see it finally this close to happening (just waiting on it being bookable in the system before it's official IMO).

As for the rest of this thread over the last few weeks, woof. What a mess. Cuts everywhere, it's honestly worse than the oil crash in Calgary. WTF is going on? Every announcement is another cut or reduction.

At this point Air Transat should just pack up and leave, what a joke of a schedule. It's not even just pushing all intl flights through YYZ and YUL either, since domestic capacity is barely up, not even close to covering the international cuts. The sooner AC folds that airline the better.

Just to put these cuts all into perspective, YVR-London is down 22% peak season next year. And that's not some big looking drop because of a relatively small base, that's a 22% drop on Vancouver's biggest international route. How are those people going to get to London next year, of further afield? The economy in Vancouver is still expanding, the population is expanding faster than it has in the last decade, and flights are getting cut like we're in an economic collapse. It makes no sense. Let's hope that YVR-LHR 787 gets put on another YVR route and not based somewhere else because it's pretty ugly right now.

I feel like TS is already collaborating with AC on S20 schedule. TS pulled CDG to give the route to AC, while keeping MAN and AMS to supplement AC's Europe service from YVR. LGW is kept as YVR-LON is a bigger pie that supports more than a daily flight, which cannot be said for YYC-LON, so TS pulled that route too. So far every route TS added from YUL are the one that are not already served by AC, and they have added nothing for YYZ this year since AC wanted to build a fortress hub there so TS would just build up YUL instead. I wouldn't be surprised that TS eventually add more leisure routes out of YVR to places such as BCN, ATH, or FCO, which AC most likely won't do on mainline. AC can always codeshare with TS once the merger is done. After all, AC almost finish free up the entire 7200-7499 block...

As for YVR-LON... word is that WS is phasing out the 767, so the route may upgauged to 789 next summer. WS had cancelled service from YEG and YWG, so maybe next summer they will run it daily from YVR...?

Maybe these airlines already know what each other's plan are, so they trim service beforehand to avoid overcapacity (and lower the yield :D)

LeftCoaster
Oct 16, 2019, 1:12 AM
Well TS pulled the route to give to AC, who then promptly cut capacity.

As for London, even if WS went daily with a 789 it would still be a 17% drop in capacity. I've never seen anything like that before, even Hong Kong, with everything going on there, isn't seeing capacity cuts like this.

I feel like it's just not adding up. I know the growth at it's past pace wouldn't continue forever, but 20% drops when the economy, both global and local, is doing well just doesn't make sense.

thenoflyzone
Oct 16, 2019, 2:09 AM
#1. You're underestimating the amount of people from YVR that are connecting in YYC to go to Europe. As WS builds up YYC-Europe, that will inevitably hurt YVR-Europe. You're already starting to see it.

#2 You're focusing on one particular route. The 22% drop is mainly due to AC cutting its second daily run to LHR. AC only went double daily on YVR-LHR in 2016. You're losing something you had for only 3 years. Not the end of the world. If AC feels that frame can be better utilized on a higher yielding route, they will switch things up. Doesn't mean that second daily flight to LHR wasn't profitable. It simply means they can use it on a "more" profitable route. I for one am interested to see what they will do with this idle LHR slot pair.

#3....and most importantly...... Look at where YVR-Europe was 10 years ago. Look at where it is now. That should tell you all you need to know. You now have AF to CDG, AC to CDG/ZRH/FRA, LH to MUC, soon TK to IST. Airlines or destinations you didn't have 10 years ago. YVR-Europe has matured well. As YVR lands deeper European destinations (as well as non stop to India) the need for more LHR or FRA flights diminishes, as people flying to these locations are also connecting further east as well. Let's not forget that VS tried LHR-YVR a few years back. It failed. More Canada to London is not always a winning formula.

This being said, dont underestimate the threat of WS and its buildup of YYC-Europe. It will inevitably eat into YVR-Europe non stop growth. YYC on its own cannot support all those European runs. WS knows this, and while you as a Vancouverite will try to avoid connections on your way to Europe, I can assure you the vast majority of Vancouverites dont mind a connection in order to save a few bucks.

Gordon
Oct 16, 2019, 3:25 AM
how were the yields on the YvR London flights in the Summer?

thenoflyzone
Oct 16, 2019, 1:30 PM
how were the yields on the YvR London flights in the Summer?

No one here knows that. The only people that do are sitting at AC HQ in Montreal.

twoNeurons
Oct 16, 2019, 5:11 PM
#1. You're underestimating the amount of people from YVR that are connecting in YYC to go to Europe. As WS builds up YYC-Europe, that will inevitably hurt YVR-Europe. You're already starting to see it.

#2 You're focusing on one particular route. The 22% drop is mainly due to AC cutting its second daily run to LHR. AC only went double daily on YVR-LHR in 2016. You're losing something you had for only 3 years. Not the end of the world. If AC feels that frame can be better utilized on a higher yielding route, they will switch things up. Doesn't mean that second daily flight to LHR wasn't profitable. It simply means they can use it on a "more" profitable route. I for one am interested to see what they will do with this idle LHR slot pair.

#3....and most importantly...... Look at where YVR-Europe was 10 years ago. Look at where it is now. That should tell you all you need to know. You now have AF to CDG, AC to CDG/ZRH/FRA, LH to MUC, soon TK to IST. Airlines or destinations you didn't have 10 years ago. YVR-Europe has matured well. As YVR lands deeper European destinations (as well as non stop to India) the need for more LHR or FRA flights diminishes, as people flying to these locations are also connecting further east as well. Let's not forget that VS tried LHR-YVR a few years back. It failed. More Canada to London is not always a winning formula.

This being said, dont underestimate the threat of WS and its buildup of YYC-Europe. It will inevitably eat into YVR-Europe non stop growth. YYC on its own cannot support all those European runs. WS knows this, and while you as a Vancouverite will try to avoid connections on your way to Europe, I can assure you the vast majority of Vancouverites dont mind a connection in order to save a few bucks.

Margins are already pretty slim on YVR-Europe. There's plenty of competition. I think YVR may be positioned better to server secondary hubs better, like Munich, Berlin, Stockholm, Warsaw... maybe Brussels? How about a direct YVR-LIS flight? Those are destinations perfectly suited to the 787 and not really doable from YYC. Problem of course is that YYZ already has them all.

YVR-IST is GREAT news and I suspect that will be a super popular flight. I was just in IST, and although I'm not a fan of their grand new monstrosity of an airport, it's an important connection hub that really opens up the world to YVR through 1-stop connections.

In my experience, people will do 1 connection, but the number of passengers willing to save money by doing two connections... is a LOT smaller.

whatnext
Oct 16, 2019, 5:15 PM
Great news about Turkish, rumoured a long time glad to see it finally this close to happening (just waiting on it being bookable in the system before it's official IMO).

As for the rest of this thread over the last few weeks, woof. What a mess. Cuts everywhere, it's honestly worse than the oil crash in Calgary. WTF is going on? Every announcement is another cut or reduction.

At this point Air Transat should just pack up and leave, what a joke of a schedule. It's not even just pushing all intl flights through YYZ and YUL either, since domestic capacity is barely up, not even close to covering the international cuts. The sooner AC folds that airline the better.

Just to put these cuts all into perspective, YVR-London is down 22% peak season next year. And that's not some big looking drop because of a relatively small base, that's a 22% drop on Vancouver's biggest international route. How are those people going to get to London next year, of further afield? The economy in Vancouver is still expanding, the population is expanding faster than it has in the last decade, and flights are getting cut like we're in an economic collapse. It makes no sense. Let's hope that YVR-LHR 787 gets put on another YVR route and not based somewhere else because it's pretty ugly right now.

Well, the expanding population isn't coming from the UK. That said, UK tourism to BC is up about 5% so it's odd to see such deep cuts.

nname
Oct 16, 2019, 6:45 PM
how were the yields on the YvR London flights in the Summer?

Only the airline would know the data about yield, but the passengers traffic data is public.

August 2019
YVR-LGW 31,933 (-4.9%)
YVR-LHR 60,499 (-4.4%)
YVR-MAN 7,940 (-10.8%)

July 2019
YVR-LGW 31,665 (+2.4%)
YVR-LHR 57,114 (-3.4%)
YVR-MAN 8,611 (+11.7%)

Add in the cancellation of GLA (about 2000-3000 passengers), YVR-UK traffic seems to be slightly down overall. Overall Canada-UK traffic seems to be stagnant or down also, but that can be attributed to the MAX grounding that cancelled almost all routes from Atlantic Canada. YYC-LGW have a 36% gain due to WS operation though.

As for LF... that would need that spreadsheet with seat info....

Johnny Aussie
Oct 16, 2019, 10:50 PM
Only the airline would know the data about yield, but the passengers traffic data is public.

August 2019
YVR-LGW 31,933 (-4.9%)
YVR-LHR 60,499 (-4.4%)
YVR-MAN 7,940 (-10.8%)

July 2019
YVR-LGW 31,665 (+2.4%)
YVR-LHR 57,114 (-3.4%)
YVR-MAN 8,611 (+11.7%)

Add in the cancellation of GLA (about 2000-3000 passengers), YVR-UK traffic seems to be slightly down overall. Overall Canada-UK traffic seems to be stagnant or down also, but that can be attributed to the MAX grounding that cancelled almost all routes from Atlantic Canada. YYC-LGW have a 36% gain due to WS operation though.

As for LF... that would need that spreadsheet with seat info....

The LHR data can be directly attributed to the AC swap from the second daily 789 to 788.

MAN up and down that’s actually quite strange.

LGW same deal. Up one month down the next. From what I’ve seen and read some of the WS fares were so low that would have easily enticed some travellers to go one stop. But the yields on those flights must have tanked.

The overall drop is really just that change to the 788 and the loss of the weekly GLA.

trofirhen
Oct 16, 2019, 11:27 PM
Margins are already pretty slim on YVR-Europe. There's plenty of competition. I think YVR may be positioned better to server secondary hubs better, like Munich, Berlin, Stockholm, Warsaw... maybe Brussels? How about a direct YVR-LIS flight? Those are destinations perfectly suited to the 787 and not really doable from YYC. Problem of course is that YYZ already has them all.

YVR-IST is GREAT news and I suspect that will be a super popular flight. I was just in IST, and although I'm not a fan of their grand new monstrosity of an airport, it's an important connection hub that really opens up the world to YVR through 1-stop connections.

In my experience, people will do 1 connection, but the number of passengers willing to save money by doing two connections... is a LOT smaller.
Istanbul is the best and biggest announcement for a long time! And I love the idea of flights from YVR to secondary hubs like Stockholm!
I just hope we don't lose one of our "Big Four" European year-round destinations: LHR, AMS, FRA, CDG, that's all. Is that a possibility due to WS at YYC? Thanks.

nname
Oct 17, 2019, 12:39 AM
The LHR data can be directly attributed to the AC swap from the second daily 789 to 788.

MAN up and down that’s actually quite strange.

Maybe it's due to how many trips it operates within the calendar month. For 3x weekly service, a month typically means 13-15 round-trips -- and that's already a 15% swing. It's likely that this July have more op days than last July, and thus this Aug have less compared to last August. The same may also apply, to a much lesser degree, to WS's LGW service, which is 6x weekly.

LeftCoaster
Oct 17, 2019, 12:52 AM
#1. You're underestimating the amount of people from YVR that are connecting in YYC to go to Europe. As WS builds up YYC-Europe, that will inevitably hurt YVR-Europe. You're already starting to see it.

I think more than anything I'm overestimating AC's willingness to protect their Hub. Most airlines in the face of increased competition would actively compete, where as AC has cut capacity on the exact routes WS is trying to poach their business. WS adds CDG and LGW capacity, AC cuts CDG and LHR capacity at YVR. It's very strange that they would just hand over hard fought market share like that, definitely not how I imagined they would respond.

Not to mention the size of the drops are not commensurate. YVR lost nearly 1,900 seats in 10 days. That's almost half of Westjet's entire YYC widebody ops. Are we to believe 50% of travelers on WS's planes are YVR O&D?

Also, I'm very interested to see how WS makes this all work.

Their game plan is to poach low yield travelers from a larger O&D market to fill their brand new expensive planes from a smaller O&D market with a struggling economy to boot. And somehow it's working? It seems quite peculiar to me.

LeftCoaster
Oct 17, 2019, 12:56 AM
Only the airline would know the data about yield, but the passengers traffic data is public.

August 2019
YVR-LGW 31,933 (-4.9%)
YVR-LHR 60,499 (-4.4%)
YVR-MAN 7,940 (-10.8%)

July 2019
YVR-LGW 31,665 (+2.4%)
YVR-LHR 57,114 (-3.4%)
YVR-MAN 8,611 (+11.7%)

Add in the cancellation of GLA (about 2000-3000 passengers), YVR-UK traffic seems to be slightly down overall. Overall Canada-UK traffic seems to be stagnant or down also, but that can be attributed to the MAX grounding that cancelled almost all routes from Atlantic Canada. YYC-LGW have a 36% gain due to WS operation though.

As for LF... that would need that spreadsheet with seat info....

According to my (admittedly rudimentary) seat charts LF would be as follows:

London
July: 90.2%
Aug: 93.9%

Manchester
July: 93.9%
Aug: 86.6%

So not jam packed, but not bad, and certainly not the routes you'd expect to see a 20% cut on.

casper
Oct 17, 2019, 4:08 AM
Well TS pulled the route to give to AC, who then promptly cut capacity.

As for London, even if WS went daily with a 789 it would still be a 17% drop in capacity. I've never seen anything like that before, even Hong Kong, with everything going on there, isn't seeing capacity cuts like this.

I feel like it's just not adding up. I know the growth at it's past pace wouldn't continue forever, but 20% drops when the economy, both global and local, is doing well just doesn't make sense.

The other factor is AT is removing older A310 from the fleet and replacing them with these new extended range A321 aircraft. I don't think these extended A321 can make it from Vancouver to Europe. Fewer longer range aircraft in the fleet means cuts somewhere.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 17, 2019, 7:01 PM
Hey nname TS just added the outbound YVR-AMS on days 4 and 7 so you can complete your TS European chart. Thursday departure at 1640 and Sundays at 1410. Total of 9 weekly - 3 each to LGW, MAN, AMS.