Provincial Economies III

[Xelebes]

This is a continuation of the previous thread (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=222249). Please proceed.

[SFUVancouver]

Well this is fun, a fresh new thread. Much like the advice of a career advisor (I advise you to get a career), my two cents on the topic is that it is important to have provincial economies. Three of them, even.

[Innsertnamehere]

Well this is fun, a fresh new thread. Much like the advice of a career advisor (I advise you to get a career), my two cents on the topic is that it is important to have provincial economies. Three of them, even.

let the other 7 provinces burn in hell, amiright?

The real question is - which 3 provinces get bestowed the honorable right to have an economy?

[MonctonRad]

let the other 7 provinces burn in hell, amiright?

The real question is - which 3 provinces get bestowed the honorable right to have an economy?

AB, ON & QC of course.

These are the only three provinces that really matter after all.

And, of course, AB will still bellyache that it is paying for all of QC's bills anyway......... :rolleyes:

[Innsertnamehere]

*BC sinks into the pacific ocean*

[SFUVancouver]

The 'three economies' was referring to this being the Provincial Economies III thread. ;)

In actual provincial economy news, the Port of Prince Rupert recently announced it is commencing construction of the $750 million Ridley Island Export Logistics Project (RIELP) expansion of the Port.

The project will consist of a 108-acre greenfield development on Ridley Island that will commence operation in Q3 2026. Ray-Mont Logistics will develop and operate facilities that provide transloading service capacity for 400,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) for agricultural, forestry, and plastic resin products.

The project will also include an expansion of the existing Ridley Island Road Rail Utility Corridor that will facilitate unit trains 10,000 feet in length with direct access to the site from the CN network. The transload facilities will be connected to Fairview Container Terminal by direct private road access, the 5-kilometer Fairview-Ridley Connector Corridor, ensuring all product movements will be within PRPA jurisdiction and fully avoid public infrastructure.

https://www.rupertport.com/prpa-to-begin-construction-on-750-million-export-logistics-project/

[ssiguy]

AB, ON & QC of course.

These are the only three provinces that really matter after all.

Ya, ON, AB, & QU do rule the roost in the country economically and politically. Outside those 3, it's basically just fishing, lumber, and wheat.

[casper]

Ya, ON, AB, & QU do rule the roost in the country economically and politically. Outside those 3, it's basically just fishing, lumber, and wheat.

Actually:

Provincial share of Canadian Economy by GDP

Ontario - 38%
Quebec - 20%
Alberta - 15%
BC - 14%
Saskatchewan - 3.5 %
Manitoba - 3%
Nova Scotia - 2%
Everyone else - under 2%

Alberta is just a more noisy sibling to BC at the family dinner table.

[craner]

Some articles from Western Investor on BC & the Prairies:

B.C. mega-projects scale back construction employment as they near completion
http://https://biv.com/article/2023/10/bc-mega-projects-scale-back-construction-employment-they-near-completion (https://biv.com/article/2023/10/bc-mega-projects-scale-back-construction-employment-they-near-completion)

Comment: Metro Vancouver’s other land crisis
http://https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/comment-metro-vancouvers-other-land-crisis-7682911 (https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/comment-metro-vancouvers-other-land-crisis-7682911)

Industrial action defines Metro Vancouver’s suburban markets
http://https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/industrial-action-defines-metro-vancouvers-suburban-markets-7698451 (https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/industrial-action-defines-metro-vancouvers-suburban-markets-7698451)

Construction employment remains strong on the Prairies
http://https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/construction-employment-remains-strong-on-the-prairies-7693252 (https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/construction-employment-remains-strong-on-the-prairies-7693252)

Calgary office conversion program whittles away at vacancies
http://https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/calgary-office-conversion-program-whittles-away-at-vacancies-7555583 (https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/calgary-office-conversion-program-whittles-away-at-vacancies-7555583)

[MolsonExport]

Alberta's oilsands pump out more pollutants than industry reports, scientists find (https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/alberta-oilsands-research-emissions-1.7093626)


Alberta's oilsands operations produce far more potentially harmful air pollutants than are officially reported, with the daily output on par with those from gridlocked megacities like Los Angeles, new research suggests.

The study, published today in the academic journal Science, measured concentrations of organic carbon emissions in the air by flying overhead and taking samples. Those numbers were compared to estimated amounts, prepared using ground-based data, reported by oilsands operations.

The researchers found levels that were between 20 and 64 times higher than those reported by industry, depending on the oilsands facility.


pipelines?

[Airboy]

Some articles from Western Investor on BC & the Prairies:

B.C. mega-projects scale back construction employment as they near completion
http://https://biv.com/article/2023/10/bc-mega-projects-scale-back-construction-employment-they-near-completion (https://biv.com/article/2023/10/bc-mega-projects-scale-back-construction-employment-they-near-completion)

Comment: Metro Vancouver’s other land crisis
http://https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/comment-metro-vancouvers-other-land-crisis-7682911 (https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/comment-metro-vancouvers-other-land-crisis-7682911)

Industrial action defines Metro Vancouver’s suburban markets
http://https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/industrial-action-defines-metro-vancouvers-suburban-markets-7698451 (https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/industrial-action-defines-metro-vancouvers-suburban-markets-7698451)

Construction employment remains strong on the Prairies
http://https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/construction-employment-remains-strong-on-the-prairies-7693252 (https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/construction-employment-remains-strong-on-the-prairies-7693252)

Calgary office conversion program whittles away at vacancies
http://https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/calgary-office-conversion-program-whittles-away-at-vacancies-7555583 (https://www.westerninvestor.com/british-columbia/calgary-office-conversion-program-whittles-away-at-vacancies-7555583)

Talking with my brother yesterday. He is a PM on a large BC project. He mentioned that labour is needed. His site is 100 trades person short. He said the site has close to 1000 trades persons on site.I have 5 sites in Alberta and they are all short trades. Regrettably the mega projects have trades that do not cross over to buildings con easily.

[craner]

^Yikes - not good.

[Hardhatdan]

Talking with my brother yesterday. He is a PM on a large BC project. He mentioned that labour is needed. His site is 100 trades person short. He said the site has close to 1000 trades persons on site.I have 5 sites in Alberta and they are all short trades. Regrettably the mega projects have trades that do not cross over to buildings con easily.
There are no surplus workers regardless of construction sector. There is no one to cross over, let alone with the requisite depth of experience. This is the new normal.

[Architype]

There are no surplus workers regardless of construction sector. There is no one to cross over, let alone with the requisite depth of experience. This is the new normal.

We need more skilled immigrants then?

[kwoldtimer]

We need more skilled immigrants then?

Hence the government programs to promote same.

[Hardhatdan]

We need more skilled immigrants then?
TFWs will likely be a major contributor in 2025 onward for the Industrial sector. There are alot of projects queued up all planning to hit peak construction at the same time across BC/AB/SK. The traditional availability of travel coverage across Canada has been abandoned by owners and even when that is available the pools of labour from the east now seem to be engaged in work within their home provinces or less willing to travel.
The residential/commercial sector is doing to struggle as its majority staffed by small businesses who don't have the organization to apply and lobby the Gov.

[MolsonExport]

Keeping Alberta rollin'

https://smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital/nationalpost/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/bus3.jpg?w=400&quality=90&strip=all&sig=3s-Hmbh3azYD7vktAA1Wtg

somebody in another thread made a funny quip about the strategic placement of the wheels

[Airboy]

There is a movement here to call her by her real name. Marlaina Smith.

[Hackslack]

Keeping Alberta rollin'

https://smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital/nationalpost/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/bus3.jpg?w=400&quality=90&strip=all&sig=3s-Hmbh3azYD7vktAA1Wtg

somebody in another thread made a funny quip about the strategic placement of the wheels

Eeeek! Couldn’t imagine the shit firestorm that would be blazing around here if that picture was picture was of Climate Barb…, errr Catherine McKenna….

[Truenorth00]

Eeeek! Couldn’t imagine the shit firestorm that would be blazing around here if that picture was picture was of Climate Barb…, errr Catherine McKenna….

It's sad that prime still don't understand why the attacks on Catherine McKenna were misogynistic.

[Hackslack]

It's sad that prime still don't understand why the attacks on Catherine McKenna were misogynistic.

Pretty sure everyone agrees the attacks on McKenna were misogynistic. Myself included. Completely unprofessional. But so is posting pictures of Danielle Smith commenting on the “strategic placement” of the wheels… referring to her god damn breasts. Stop talking or thinking of her breasts, or does the rule only hold true for Con supporters. That’s why I said, prettty sure it’d be a shit storm blazing here if it was a supporter of the Cons that posted a similar pic of Notley or McKenna.

Sorry, just to be clear, I said “Climate Barb…” just reminding of the shit storm that started because of that statement simply because she is a women.

[casper]

Pretty sure everyone agrees the attacks on McKenna were misogynistic. Myself included. Completely unprofessional. But so is posting pictures of Danielle Smith commenting on the “strategic placement” of the wheels… referring to her god damn breasts. Stop talking or thinking of her breasts, or does the rule only hold true for Con supporters. That’s why I said, prettty sure it’d be a shit storm blazing here if it was a supporter of the Cons that posted a similar pic of Notley or McKenna.

Sorry, just to be clear, I said “Climate Barb…” just reminding of the shit storm that started because of that statement simply because she is a women.

I think most people on here (left, right or center leaning), have little to say about that photo. All I can say, is I am surprised. These political parties have teams that sit around boardroom tables reviewing such things. Odd that was approved.

That said, that photo does not change my impression of where she is.

[Justanothermember]

Pretty sure everyone agrees the attacks on McKenna were misogynistic. Myself included. Completely unprofessional. But so is posting pictures of Danielle Smith commenting on the “strategic placement” of the wheels… referring to her god damn breasts.

Someone in one of the Edmonton threads referred to her as Premier Bustits. I haven't laughed that hard in a long time because I remembered where that came from; it was funny then and it's funny now.

Would people get all bent out of shape if somehow JTs package (or any other male political figure for that matter) was enhanced (unintentionally) somehow in an add? Declaring sexism against men? I doubt it as people would be too busy busting a gut on the floor.

People really need to lighten up and stop throwing around the racist/sexist cards willy-nilly simply because they are incredibly thin-skinned and constantly offended.

[ScreamingViking]

Eeeek! Couldn’t imagine the shit firestorm that would be blazing around here if that picture was picture was of Climate Barb…, errr Catherine McKenna….

Would be funnier if it was a Ford bus. :haha: (or Trudeau, for that matter)

[Truenorth00]

Pretty sure everyone agrees the attacks on McKenna were misogynistic. Myself included. Completely unprofessional. But so is posting pictures of Danielle Smith commenting on the “strategic placement” of the wheels… referring to her god damn breasts. Stop talking or thinking of her breasts, or does the rule only hold true for Con supporters. That’s why I said, prettty sure it’d be a shit storm blazing here if it was a supporter of the Cons that posted a similar pic of Notley or McKenna.

Sorry, just to be clear, I said “Climate Barb…” just reminding of the shit storm that started because of that statement simply because she is a women.

Fair point. I missed that you were drawing a parallel. And I totally agree. It's ridiculous to attack a politician based on their gender.

[WarrenC12]

Looks like Tucker Carlson went from Alberta to Moscow. Can't make this shit up.

https://twitter.com/marcbennetts1/status/1753864448513647101

[whatnext]

Looks like Tucker Carlson went from Alberta to Moscow. Can't make this shit up.

https://twitter.com/marcbennetts1/status/1753864448513647101

Too bad he can’t be jailed for breaking some sanction. It’s disgusting that the Republicans have sunk so low they’ve become Putin’s little bitches.

[Truenorth00]

Too bad he can’t be jailed for breaking some sanction. It’s disgusting that the Republicans have sunk so low they’ve become Putin’s little bitches.

It was inevitable once they decided winning was more important than principles. We should be careful to not allow that here with our political parties.

[kwoldtimer]

It was inevitable once they decided winning was more important than principles. We should be careful to not allow that here with our political parties.

I thought that winning was a key Liberal trait. It's one of their greatest strengths as a party. Lots of wiggle room in the "centre".

[casper]

Too bad he can’t be jailed for breaking some sanction. It’s disgusting that the Republicans have sunk so low they’ve become Putin’s little bitches.

I don't believe the US has gone as far with Russia as it once did with Cuba. Is it not still legal for Americans to travel to Russia?

If there were limits, he likely would claim he is a journalist traveling to do a story. I may think he is a poor journalist, but a journalist none the less.

[Truenorth00]

I thought that winning was a key Liberal trait. It's one of their greatest strengths as a party. Lots of wiggle room in the "centre".

The Libs aren't winning by resorting to conspiracy theories. Nor does Justin Trudeau have anywhere the cult of personality that Orange Julius does south of the border.

I do think we should be weary of the LPC carrying water for China, and increasingly the CPC looks way too comfortable with Putin affiliates.

[Truenorth00]

I generally agree with this. Quebec having a higher per capita GDP than Ontario is extremely unlikely. It can still have a comparable or even better standing of living due to other factors though. It's arguably pretty close to that already, I'd say.

Not only do I think this is possible, I actually think it's quite likely that Québec will surpass Ontario in GDP per capita.

Québec has a major advantage which most of the world lacks: cheap, clean power. Combine this with substantial resource extraction, access to global and the American markets, and a highly skilled workforce and you have a combination that can't be found anywhere else in the world

Ontario has limited clean energy, an aversion to all kinds of development, an economy over-reliant on the housing ponzi and its resource base is much less inaccessible and further away from its industrial base.

I honestly would bet on Québec having one of the strongest economies in Canada in 20-30 years. Can Québéc politicians screw it all up with bad policy? Peut être. But it's still more of a winning hand than most of the provinces in this country.

[Acajack]

If indeed that were to emerge, it would kinda be one of those "unique advantages" deftly played that New Brisavoine was referring to.

[MolsonExport]

ahh yes, the "winning conditions" that will encourage the nationalists to once again "roll the dice". It would be an interesting situation.

I am also bullish on Quebec GDP/capita matching or perhaps surpassing that of Ontario's in the decades to come. Quebec's deindustrialization happened earlier, and was even more wrenching than that which occurred in Ontario. It has taken 40 years, but Quebec has now reconfigured its economy to make up for what was lost (an awful lot) during the 70s-90s.

[Truenorth00]

If indeed that were to emerge, it would kinda be one of those "unique advantages" deftly played that New Brisavoine was referring to.

It's honestly not that hard to play. And we see the Québec government doing this right now with things like me battery plants. But also things like pension plan investment domestically.

Fundamentally, Ontario is so dependent on the housing ponzi, both domestically and nationally, that it is really going to struggle to rebuild and sustain an industrial economy. For all kinds of different reasons, Québec never went down the same path. It paid for not doing so with worse economics. But not it's benefiting from not doing so.

The view that language is the sole determinant of economic success is ridiculous. It might speak to the eventual absolute size, because of addressable size of the market. But a bigger economy doesn't necessarily mean a higher quality of life.

[Acajack]

Bluster and righteous indignation aside, it's an interesting question and one that can apply to Quebec or any other place, really.

Does economic prosperity (greater than the average of the larger entity you're a part) favour or discourage sentiment for independence?

Because on the one hand you can argue that if Quebec (or anyone else) is doing extremely well within a country, why risk that with independence?

On the other hand, if you're not doing well, what does it do for independence?

Are people going to want independence because they're frustrated by their unfavourable situation?

Or will they be against independence because they already feel fragile and think things could get worse, and are also insecure about their in-group's collective prospects and abilities?

[MolsonExport]

The view that language is the sole determinant of economic success is ridiculous. It might speak to the eventual absolute size, because of addressable size of the market. But a bigger economy doesn't necessarily mean a higher quality of life.

Agreed. Flanders (Belgium) is much mightier than Wallonia (Belgium) despite the former speaking a marginal dialect (Flemish) of a tongue (Dutch) that is only spoken to any wide extent in the Netherlands (and maybe among a few living in current/former colonies). Things were reversed when my grandfather was growing up in Belgium (period before WW1), where, despite being Flemish, he and his brothers/sisters were admonished to speak French at home as well as much as possible outside the home, by their (my) Flemish/German parents (great grandparents), as it was seen as the language of the future and economic prosperity.

[MolsonExport]

Bluster and righteous indignation aside, it's an interesting question and one that can apply to Quebec or any other place, really.

Does economic prosperity (greater than the average of the larger entity you're a part) favour or discourage sentiment for independence?

Because on the one hand you can argue that if Quebec (or anyone else) is doing extremely well within a country, why risk that with independence?

On the other hand, if you're not doing well, what does it do for independence?

Are people going to want independence because they're frustrated by their unfavourable situation?

Or will they be against independence because they already feel fragile and think things could get worse, and are also insecure about their in-group's collective prospects and abilities?


Indeed.

https://pics.filmaffinity.com/The_Clash_Should_I_Stay_or_Should_I_Go_Music_Video-501140190-large.jpg

If I go, there will be trouble
And if I stay, it will be double
So come on and let me know
Should I stay, or should I go?

[Acajack]

I was honestly hoping for a more fulsome response.

[Truenorth00]

Bluster and righteous indignation aside, it's an interesting question and one that can apply to Quebec or any other place, really.

Does economic prosperity (greater than the average of the larger entity you're a part) favour or discourage sentiment for independence?

Because on the one hand you can argue that if Quebec (or anyone else) is doing extremely well within a country, why risk that with independence?

On the other hand, if you're not doing well, what does it do for independence?

Are people going to want independence because they're frustrated by their unfavourable situation?

Or will they be against independence because they already feel fragile and think things could get worse, and are also insecure about their in-group's collective prospects and abilities?

I am mostly going to leave the independence discussion to the other thread and to the benevolent tutelage of the colonials by the Parisien.

But on the economics, I will say that past is not going to be a guide to the future. The last few referendums happened when Quebec was more prosperous but also far less integrated into the global economy. Today's deindustrialization is much more underpinned by global supply chains but also highly dependent on access the American market. And I'm not so sure that populist America would be interested in the same deals with a smaller Québec. And even less so if a lot of ex-Canada was absorbed into the US.

For example, a huge part of Quebec's aerospace and defence sector benefits from access to the US because of ITARs exemptions and qualifications under various bilateral or Five Eyes cooperation. Most of that would almost guaranteedly disappear with independence. Scotland is having the same discussion about naval shipbuilding over there. Si cela en vaut la peine peut être décidée seulement par les gens de Québec.

[Acajack]

I am mostly going to leave the independence discussion to the other thread and to the benevolent tutelage of the colonials by the Parisien.

But on the economics, I will say that past is not going to be a guide to the future. The last few referendums happened when Quebec was more prosperous but also far less integrated into the global economy. Today's deindustrialization is much more underpinned by global supply chains but also highly dependent on access the American market. And I'm not so sure that populist America would be interested in the same deals with a smaller Québec. And even less so if a lot of ex-Canada was absorbed into the US.

For example, a huge part of Quebec's aerospace and defence sector benefits from access to the US because of ITARs exemptions and qualifications under various bilateral or Five Eyes cooperation. Most of that would almost guaranteedly disappear with independence. Scotland is having the same discussion about naval shipbuilding over there. Si cela en vaut la peine peut être décidée seulement par les gens de Québec.

Quebec in 1980 and 1995 was not more prosperous than today, not in actual terms nor relative to the rest of Canada, the US or the western world.

I agree that it's much more integrated with its neighbours and the world economically, as we all are.

[Truenorth00]

Quebec in 1980 and 1995 was not more prosperous than today, not in actual terms nor relative to the rest of Canada, the US or the western world.

I agree that it's much more integrated with its neighbours and the world economically, as we all are.

Maybe not 1995. But I think Québec definitely held its own in the era when Montreal was the financial centre for Canada. Maybe that didn't filter down to the working class.

In any event, if the question is who has better prospects now? I'd say Québec.

[Acajack]

Maybe not 1995. But I think Québec definitely held its own in the era when Montreal was the financial centre for Canada. Maybe that didn't filter down to the working class.

In any event, if the question is who has better prospects now? I'd say Québec.

That's an interesting point.

People talk about Venezuela, but when Venezuela was "doing well" into the 1990s, 15% of the population was beset by famine. When Hugo Chavez died after 10-15 years in power, famine was down below 5%.

With Chavismo still reigning over the country after his death, they got famine down to basically zero a few years later.

[lio45]

It's honestly not that hard to play. And we see the Québec government doing this right now with things like me battery plants. But also things like pension plan investment domestically.

Fundamentally, Ontario is so dependent on the housing ponzi, both domestically and nationally, that it is really going to struggle to rebuild and sustain an industrial economy. For all kinds of different reasons, Québec never went down the same path. It paid for not doing so with worse economics. But not it's benefiting from not doing so.

The view that language is the sole determinant of economic success is ridiculous. It might speak to the eventual absolute size, because of addressable size of the market. But a bigger economy doesn't necessarily mean a higher quality of life.Also, by definition, one of the immediate effects of the housing Ponzi is to reduce all per capita metrics, so even though it does grow the total GDP, it's going to be bad for per capita GDP.

The bigger the population gap between Quebec and Ontario, the wealthier Quebec is likely going to be and the poorer Ontario is likely going to be.

[Truenorth00]

It's worth mentioning that I don't think I ever heard a PQ person say that Quebec as a country would be richer than the ROC.

Their discourse has always been that things would be fine economically, generally acknowledging that it might take a bit of a hit in the first couple of years.

If you'd ask them they'd say they think Quebec would similar to France, Finland or Japan in terms of overall prosperity.

There are always bizarre assumptions made about the post-independence world. Sovereignists seem to act like everything will be the same except for different passports, currency and postage stamps. Nothing could be further from the truth. Even Brexit hasn't gone this well. And they didn't even break up a country or leave a currency.

Also, the comparisons listed are bizarre. Japan is a massive population in close proximity to other large markets. Finland and France are part of the EU, a market of 450M and part of the Eurozone, sharing a currency with 350M. Quebec that doesn't launch with USMCA on day one would be in a world of hurt economically. And there is literally nothing Québec has which the Americans are desperate enough to negotiate over. As we see now with complaints from US Secretary of State over labelling requirements in French, the Americans don't really believe they have to cave in much to Canada of 40M. Just imagine what they'll say to a region of 8-10M.

Will add too that a lot of the assumptions are based on continuity of deals that Canada itself would not have today, and that we largely benefit from, mostly out of legacy. If NATO and Five Eyes were being formed today, we might well have been left out. Just like we got left out of AUKUS. If there's no Canada, then there's no reason to continue the charade with successor states. This is again, similar to the assumptions made by the Brexiters.

[Truenorth00]

I've talked about this this before. Developing countries don't see importing fuel as a benefit despite what Canadians think about exporting oil and gas.


Ethiopia becomes first country to ban internal combustion engines: Only EVs allowed..

.....
Having spent around $6 billion last year importing fossil fuels, Ethiopia's Ministry of Transport and Logistics has just decided to allow only electric vehicles to enter the country. One of the reasons for this drastic decision, according to Minister Alemu Sime, is the country's lack of access to cheap foreign currency. This makes it difficult to import petrol and diesel due to economic pressures:....
.. .


https://www.notebookcheck.net/Ethiopia-becomes-first-country-to-ban-internal-combustion-engines-Only-EVs-allowed.802396.0.html

[Changing City]

I've talked about this this before. Developing countries don't see importing fuel as a benefit despite what Canadians think about exporting oil and gas.

If this becomes a trend in Africa, where will we 'export' our stolen cars (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/auto-theft-canada-1.6953242)? (Apparently they're always ICE, as stolen EVs can be disabled remotely).

edit
It's OK - apparently they can still go to the Middle East (https://www.ctvnews.ca/autos/251-vehicles-stolen-in-canada-and-bound-for-middle-east-seized-in-italy-1.6741787).

[Truenorth00]

Pretty interesting what's happening in Quebec with Northvolt (https://www.msn.com/fr-ca/finances/affaires/northvolt-il-faut-vraiment-changer-d-attitude-au-qu%C3%A9bec-dit-legault/ar-BB1hZE7z?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=083e0c888c58434087deff63f4e5c225&ei=26).


Northvolt: «il faut vraiment changer d'attitude au Québec», dit Legault

QUÉBEC — Le premier ministre François Legault a pris la défense jeudi du promoteur de l'usine de batteries Northvolt contre la fronde que suscite ce méga-projet.

En mêlée de presse, il a appelé les Québécois à changer d'attitude sur le développement économique.

Son ministre de l'Environnement, Benoit Charette, s'est pourtant dit confiant le même jour que le projet allait se réaliser comme prévu.

Le projet Northvolt, le plus important investissement industriel privé de l'histoire du Québec, se construira notamment sur des milieux naturels en Montérégie et il est en train de fédérer tous les groupes environnementaux contre lui.

M. Legault a dit avoir eu des discussions avec certains représentants d'entreprises qui ne «comprennent pas» l'opposition aux grands projets économiques.

....

[Truenorth00]

Really sad to hear the Covered Bridge chip factory burning down.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7131884

[Airboy]

Really sad to hear the Covered Bridge chip factory burning down.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7131884

There was a lot of talk locally about chips in general and Covered Bridge had a huge following. Went by the only grocer that carries them here and they were almost sold out already. How they can recover quickly.

[whatnext]

Wow, is this Canada or South Africa? Alberta sounds Third World. :P

Rotating brownouts leave thousands of Albertans without power Friday
Electric system operator issued provincewide grid alert at 6:49 a.m.
Janet French · CBC News · Posted: Apr 05, 2024

Tens of thousands of Alberta households lost power Friday morning as a shortage of electrical generation prompted the province's electrical system operator to temporarily cut usage.

At least seven major power plants were generating little to no electricity early Friday afternoon, according to information on the Alberta Electric System Operator website.

"It is truly a combination of many things that occurred that got us into the rotating outage situation," Marie-France Samaroden, vice-president, grid reliability operations at AESO, said at a news conference Friday afternoon.

AESO issued a grid alert at 6:49 a.m., meaning the province's electric system was under stress and needed to use emergency reserves.

A wind power forecast overestimated the amount of wind power to be generated Friday morning by 800 megawatts, Samaroden said.

When the Keephills 2 natural gas plant west of Edmonton tripped offline two hours later, AESO asked power distribution companies, including Edmonton's Epcor and Calgary's Enmax, to begin rotating outages to their customers, she said......

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/rotating-brownouts-leave-thousands-of-albertans-without-power-friday-1.7165290

[Acajack]

This can happen anywhere from time to time so not to bash on Alberta especially, but even so it's not guaranteed that the standard of living that we've enjoyed all our lives will always be available to us.

As a Canadian I never really even thought about this until fairly recently.

[casper]

This can happen anywhere from time to time so not to bash on Alberta especially, but even so it's not guaranteed that the standard of living that we've enjoyed all our lives will always be available to us.

As a Canadian I never really even thought about this until fairly recently.

It is structural to some extent.

More likely in Alberta and Ontario. Those are the provinces that have adopted complex open (free enterprise) markets for power production.

Less likely in provinces that have well managed central utilities.

Alberta could also build more inter-connects with other provinces. However it is a bit of a weird position. Inter-connects with BC involve traveling through mountain passes.

Inter-connects with Saskatchewan involve converting from AC to DC and back to AC. Alberta is part of same grid as BC so both systems are phase locked. Saskatchewan is part of a different system, so there is an extra step in the process.

[Truenorth00]

This can happen anywhere from time to time so not to bash on Alberta especially, but even so it's not guaranteed that the standard of living that we've enjoyed all our lives will always be available to us.

As a Canadian I never really even thought about this until fairly recently.

Yeah....I don't see it. This is entirely a local management problem. Not something that should afflict other parts of the country, unless we adopt their practices.

[CanSpice]

This can happen anywhere from time to time so not to bash on Alberta especially, but even so it's not guaranteed that the standard of living that we've enjoyed all our lives will always be available to us.

As a Canadian I never really even thought about this until fairly recently.

It's weird, I do a google search for "bc hydro brownouts" and I don't get any news articles, other than ones where BC Hydro has sold electricity to Alberta so that Alberta can prevent brownouts. Same for "saskatchewan brownouts". "Manitoba brownouts" leads to a couple of stories about outages caused by weather, but those are because of things like ice and wind knocking out transmission lines. I search for "alberta brownouts" and I get heaps of news articles about numerous brownouts with plants going offline. There must be something systematically different between power generation in Alberta versus the other three western provinces.

[whatnext]

This can happen anywhere from time to time so not to bash on Alberta especially, but even so it's not guaranteed that the standard of living that we've enjoyed all our lives will always be available to us.

As a Canadian I never really even thought about this until fairly recently.

Don’t recall it ever happening in B.C….

[thewave46]

Fluke things do happen with power grids.

The type of pricing system and regulatory environment of electrical grids plays into it.

Purely market-based systems with lower regulatory burden achieve greater cost reductions under optimal scenarios, but they are more prone to failure or price inelasticity under non-optimal conditions. See: Texas power crisis during cold snap.

That, and companies can game the market if it is set up poorly. California learned that the hard way.

Alberta’s free market electricity system seems to be having issues with expensive pricing, peak capacity issues, and reliability. Generally, several units tripping off simultaneously is an outlier event as grids are not optimized for multi-unit failures. Without large contingency reserve generation, this requires rapid start of peaker plants.

A deeper dive into the underlying issues seems to be merited.

[Hardhatdan]

It's not an end user friendly system. It's probably the worst of all worlds.

[Hackslack]

Is rolling brown outs a common occurrence in Alberta?

[thewave46]

Is rolling brown outs a common occurrence in Alberta?

Alberta has had several high-profile incidents with its electricity system recently.

The cold snap of early January caused AESO to send out a mass text to reduce consumption. Fine, the cold puts strain on these things.

Electricity rates have spiked in the last few years. Alberta has some of the highest rates in the country now. The average rate as per this history (https://www.epcor.com/products-services/encor/electricity-plans-and-rates/Pages/historical-electricity-rates.aspx) was as low as 7 cents/kWh in June 2021 (see average RRO rate). It had spiked to >32cents/kWh in August 2023.

Now this brownout situation during a season not known for high electricity demand as multiple power stations tripped on a daily ramp-up of demand.

Individually considered, not necessarily a problem. As a whole? Starting to think there may be a systemic issue.

[whatnext]

Alberta has had several high-profile incidents with its electricity system recently.

The cold snap of early January caused AESO to send out a mass text to reduce consumption. Fine, the cold puts strain on these things.

Electricity rates have spiked in the last few years. Alberta has some of the highest rates in the country now. The average rate as per this history (https://www.epcor.com/products-services/encor/electricity-plans-and-rates/Pages/historical-electricity-rates.aspx) was as low as 7 cents/kWh in June 2021 (see average RRO rate). It had spiked to >32cents/kWh in August 2023.

Now this brownout situation during a season not known for high electricity demand as multiple power stations tripped on a daily ramp-up of demand.

Individually considered, not necessarily a problem. As a whole? Starting to think there may be a systemic issue.

Especially when said province likes to brand itself as an energy powerhouse...:rolleyes:

[Hackslack]

Albertans should pay more/higher taxes and make the power a provincial government program… is that part of why other provinces pay higher taxes, and pst, and hst… I mean, is other provinces power really that much cheaper, or are the costs actually hidden in the higher taxes, or additional taxes the other provinces pay

[Acajack]

Yeah....I don't see it. This is entirely a local management problem. Not something that should afflict other parts of the country, unless we adopt their practices.

I guess I didn't express myself properly as everyone interpreted it as being a reference only to electrical brownouts.

I was actually using the brownouts as an example of other failings in our comfortable lives that we have seen and will probably see in the future.

It could be electricity, or drinking water, or products in stores, or fuel, or anything really.

As I was saying, in Canada we take for granted that most everything is going to work reasonably well, that it will be fixed fast when it doesn't, and that we'll have access to anything we need in a reasonable time frame.

But it's not a given that it will always be the case and the reason it's been that way for the entirety of our lives is due to a fairly fragile, well-balanced human-built and -run "ecosystem".

[casper]

Albertans should pay more/higher taxes and make the power a provincial government program… is that part of why other provinces pay higher taxes, and pst, and hst… I mean, is other provinces power really that much cheaper, or are the costs actually hidden in the higher taxes, or additional taxes the other provinces pay

Actually Alberta has relatively expensive electricity compared to other provinces.

Quebec, BC and Manitoba have some of the lowest cost power in the country. They are also highly dependent on hydro.

[Airboy]

Actually Alberta has relatively expensive electricity compared to other provinces.

Quebec, BC and Manitoba have some of the lowest cost power in the country. They are also highly dependent on hydro.

Albertans are paying the highest power rates right now. All because UCP deregulated the market to let free market forces play out. hoping we would see more competitive pricing. But all is did was spike costs. Natural gas rates also went up.

Alternative power production is at 14% right now. The last power loss (selective black outs) was because 2 natural gas and one coal plant were off line. Solar and Wind were reduced but did not account for the loss.

[whatnext]

I posted this in the BC section but Canada is in for a world of hurt in the future. Not only has the Federal gov't been on an out of control spending spree but the provinces are just as bad:

Provincial finances are a future crisis in the making. It’s time to start work on a solution
ANDREW COYNE
PUBLISHED MARCH 27, 2024

... A monetary union thus implies some limits on the borrowing of member states. And indeed, at the euro’s outset, Europe had imposed such limits: deficits of no more than 3 per cent of GDP, total debt of no more than 60 per cent. But these had not been enforced. Greece, and the euro crisis, were the result. Silly Europe. Tut, tut, tut.

Except … that’s also the case in Canada. Australia co-ordinates the borrowing of its member states through a federal-state body known as the Australian Loan Council. American states have self-imposed limits on their ability to take on debt. German Länder (states) are constitutionally prohibited from running deficits. But in Canada, provinces can borrow as much as they like, in any currency they like. Like Europe, we are a monetary union without a fiscal union. Until lately that hasn’t posed much of a problem. It is about to become one.

Every year the Parliamentary Budget Office issues a Fiscal Sustainability Report on the debts of the federal and provincial governments. Half the provinces, it finds in its latest instalment, have debts that are “not sustainable over the long term,” meaning they are likely to grow faster than the economy. Its projections are, of course, conditional on the assumptions it plugs into its model, and as such tend to jump about from year to year. Nevertheless, the forecasts for Newfoundland, Manitoba, Prince Edward Island and, of late, British Columbia are consistently worrisome, with projected net debts in 25 years’ time exceeding 50 per cent or even 70 per cent of GDP. When Saskatchewan nearly hit the “debt wall” a generation ago, its debt-to-GDP ratio was in the high 40s....

....University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, co-director of the invaluable Finances of the Nation website, is even gloomier. He projects the provinces generally face a “fiscal gap” over the next 25 years on the order of 2.5 percentage points of GDP. That’s the amount they would have to either raise taxes or cut spending – not over the long run, but “immediately and permanently” – to bring their debts under control.

In B.C., according to Prof. Tombe, the gap is between 4 per cent and 5 per cent of GDP. To recoup that much through revenues alone, B.C. would have to double its personal income tax, or triple its sales tax. But Newfoundland, PEI and Nova Scotia are, on his calculations, not far behind..

All of which makes the insouciance of recent provincial budgets in Canada’s largest four provinces a little hard to bear. Take B.C., which not long ago had the most rock-solid finances of any province but whose fiscal future, after years of rapid spending growth under the province’s NDP government, Prof. Tombe now rates as “bleaker than any other.” The province’s latest budget projects a deficit of nearly $8-billion for the current fiscal year, with similarly hefty deficits to follow – nearly doubling the province’s debt-to-GDP ratio in four years...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-provincial-finances-are-a-future-crisis-in-the-making-its-time-to/

[Airboy]

LNG Canada in Kitimat has now moved from the construction phase and are moving to the commissioning phase.

There were 9000 works on this project. I would expect the main camp to start mothballing parts.

The other project in town the Cedar LNG (owned by the local FN) has moved further along with guarantee for sales. This will be faster to turn on since it will be a floating facility.

My last visit to site was last May and there were 5000 on site then.

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/canadas-first-lng-export-facility-set-for-commissioning-activities/#:~:text=Canada's%20first%20LNG%20export%20facility%2C%20the%20Shell%2Dled%20LNG%20Canada,up%20activities%20about%20to%20begin.

[svlt]

LNG Canada in Kitimat has now moved from the construction phase and are moving to the commissioning phase.

There were 9000 works on this project. I would expect the main camp to start mothballing parts.

The other project in town the Cedar LNG (owned by the local FN) has moved further along with guarantee for sales. This will be faster to turn on since it will be a floating facility.

My last visit to site was last May and there were 5000 on site then.

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/canadas-first-lng-export-facility-set-for-commissioning-activities/#:~:text=Canada's%20first%20LNG%20export%20facility%2C%20the%20Shell%2Dled%20LNG%20Canada,up%20activities%20about%20to%20begin.

Every single one of the LNG projects seriously proposed in BC (LNG Canada, Cedar LNG, Ksi Lisims LNG, Woodfibre LNG) will be going ahead or has already started construction I think - that's a win :cheers:

Even the Tilbury Marine Jetty in Delta to support the LNG industry that was rife with opposition got its approval. Now we will see if LNG Canada will go forward with Phase 2.

[Airboy]

Every single one of the LNG projects seriously proposed in BC (LNG Canada, Cedar LNG, Ksi Lisims LNG, Woodfibre LNG) will be going ahead or has already started construction I think - that's a win :cheers:

Even the Tilbury Marine Jetty in Delta to support the LNG industry that was rife with opposition got its approval. Now we will see if LNG Canada will go forward with Phase 2.

Plus the Kitimat FN has there Tugboat operation up and running.

[Innsertnamehere]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/honda-is-near-deal-with-canada-to-boost-electric-vehicle-capacity

Honda to build electric vehicles and battery plant in Ontario, sources say



TORONTO - Honda Canada is set to build an electric vehicle battery plant near its auto manufacturing facility in Alliston, Ont., where it also plans to produce fully electric vehicles.

The Canadian Press has learned that the federal and Ontario governments will make the announcement this week.

Senior sources with information on the project confirmed the deal but were not yet able to give any dollar figures.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Monday morning told a First Nations conference that there will be an announcement this week about a new deal that he said will be double the size of a Volkswagen deal announced last year.

That EV battery plant set to be built in St. Thomas, Ont., comes with a $7-billion capital price tag.

The Honda facility will be the third electric vehicle battery plant in Ontario, following in the footsteps of Volkswagen and a Stellantis LG plant in Windsor, and while those two deals involved billions of dollars in production subsidies as a way of competing with the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act subsidies, Honda’s is expected to involve capital commitments and tax credits.

Federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s recent budget announced a 10 per cent Electric Vehicle Supply Chain investment tax credit on the cost of buildings related to EV production as long as the business invests in assembly, battery production and cathode active material production in Canada.

That’s on top of an existing 30 per cent Clean Technology Manufacturing investment tax credit on the cost of investments in new machinery and equipment.

Honda’s deal also involves two key parts suppliers for their batteries — cathodes and separators — with the locations of those facilities elsewhere in Ontario set to be announced at a later date.

The deal comes after years of meetings and discussions between Honda executives and the Ontario government, the sources said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Premier Doug Ford and Honda executives were on hand in March 2022 in Alliston when the Japanese automaker announced hybrid production at the facility, with $131.6 million in assistance from each of the two levels of government.

Around the time of that announcement, conversations began about a larger potential investment into electric vehicles, the sources said, and negotiations began that summer.

[whatnext]

I thought this was of interest as it shows where Canadian pension fund end up putting their money though thankfully CPP doesn't seem invested! :tup:

A U.K. utility partially owned by Canadian pension funds is drowning in debt
B.C. Investment Management Corp., which manages public-sector pension funds, owns a nearly nine-per-cent stake in Thames Water
Bob Mackin
Jun 30, 2023 4:20 PM

london-riverthames-zigaplahutareplusgetty
An aerial view of river Thames in London, from where the U.K. Thames Water utility draws its name | Ziga Plahutar/E+/Getty Images
Two Canadian pension funds — one of which is Victoria-based — are shareholders in London’s troubled water and sewage utility company.

The Financial Times reported Wednesday that Thames Water is in talks with the U.K. government about potentially nationalizing the company, which is facing a crisis over its £14 billion debt, worth $23.4 billion in Canadian funds. CEO Sarah Bentley suddenly quit Tuesday and a new chair, Adrian Montague, was officially announced Friday.

Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System (OMERS) is the biggest external shareholder with a 31.777-per-cent stake. B.C. Investment Management Corp. (BCIMC) holds 8.706 per cent. Other investors include sovereign wealth funds in Abu Dhabi and China....

...In 2006, the BCIMC Crown corporation was part of the Kemble Water Ltd. consortium, led by Australian investment bank Macquarie, that acquired Thames Water from Germany’s RWE AG for £8 billion.

BCIMC’s most-recently released investment inventory, dated March 31, 2022, showed Thames Water among 27 companies under its infrastructure and renewable resources portfolio, which represents 9.5 per cent of BCIMC assets under management. The portfolio represents 9.5 per cent of BCIMC’s $233 billion assets under management.

The regulator, Water Services Regulation Authority, which goes by the brand name Ofwat, was “deeply concerned” about Thames Water and four other regional monopolies, which it deemed “the worst performing companies operationally.”...

https://www.biv.com/news/economy-law-politics/uk-utility-partially-owned-canadian-pension-funds-drowning-debt-8272358

[MolsonExport]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/honda-is-near-deal-with-canada-to-boost-electric-vehicle-capacity

Wow this sounds like really good news. The Japanese auto manufacturers are playing catch up with Tesla and numerous Chinese brands. The vehicle industry is presently undergoing a sea-change.

[Hackslack]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/honda-is-near-deal-with-canada-to-boost-electric-vehicle-capacity

Very cool!

I’m just happy the feds increased the capital gains tax inclusion rate only to announce significant tax breaks to some of the worlds largest auto manufacturers. They nailed the timing of this announcement, in my opinion.

Not only will they provide tax breaks to these companies, they’ll also likely scuttle investments in this country with the increase in capital tax tax inclusion rate.

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

...goddammit, keep those hundreds of millions of dollars OUT of our economy!!!

[Hackslack]

...goddammit, keep those hundreds of millions of dollars OUT of our economy!!!

Lol, no debate with that. I encourage all types of investments in our country, just funny they increase capital gain tax inclusion rate on its citizens, then give tax breaks to international corporations. I wonder how many hundred of millions will be lost to the economy and spent on tax’s from the capital gains increase, and forfeiture of future investments because of the capital gains tax increase.

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

Lol, no debate with that. I encourage all types of investments in our country, just funny they increase capital gain tax inclusion rate on its citizens, then give tax breaks to international corporations. I wonder how many hundred of millions will be lost to the economy and spent on tax’s from the capital gains increase, and forfeiture of future investments because of the capital gains tax increase.

:cheers:

I guess it's financial investment vs. social investment.

[casper]

Lol, no debate with that. I encourage all types of investments in our country, just funny they increase capital gain tax inclusion rate on its citizens, then give tax breaks to international corporations. I wonder how many hundred of millions will be lost to the economy and spent on tax’s from the capital gains increase, and forfeiture of future investments because of the capital gains tax increase.

I am certain if a Canadian citizen was offering to build a multi-billion dollar manufacturing facility, the feds would be willing to provide a tax break.

[Innsertnamehere]

yup. This will be the largest industrial manufacturing facility in Ontario, I believe - by a significant margin.

The Volkswagen plant was already going to be the largest, and this is apparently twice the size of that. It will be immense. The spin-off benefits will be huge, Honda is basically focusing a huge portion of it's north-american production in Ontario. Simcoe County is already exploding in population too, this will only bolster it.

It's also interesting as the plant will be located further north than the "traditional" southwestern Ontario manufacturing belt. Projects like the 413 will be all the more important with this as far more traffic will be heading north of the GTA from southwestern Ontario where a lot of suppliers, etc. will likely be.

[kwoldtimer]

yup. This will be the largest industrial manufacturing facility in Ontario, I believe - by a significant margin.

The Volkswagen plant was already going to be the largest, and this is apparently twice the size of that. It will be immense. The spin-off benefits will be huge, Honda is basically focusing a huge portion of it's north-american production in Ontario. Simcoe County is already exploding in population too, this will only bolster it.

It's also interesting as the plant will be located further north than the "traditional" southwestern Ontario manufacturing belt. Projects like the 413 will be all the more important with this as far more traffic will be heading north of the GTA from southwestern Ontario where a lot of suppliers, etc. will likely be.

I believe that it will be four manufacturing plants in total (including the Aliston re-tooling).

[MonctonRad]

Not only will they provide tax breaks to these companies, they’ll also likely scuttle investments in this country with the increase in capital tax tax inclusion rate.

Well, I'm gonna sell all my stock bearing mutual funds before the capital gains changes come into effect (still taking a tax hit), and doubling down on good solid predictable dividend paying vehicles like bank stocks for my retirement future.

Great for the banks. Not so good for start-ups looking for investors.............

[Innsertnamehere]

Well, I'm gonna sell all my stock bearing mutual funds before the capital gains changes come into effect (still taking a tax hit), and doubling down on good solid predictable dividend paying vehicles like bank stocks for my retirement future.

Great for the banks. Not so good for start-ups looking for investors.............

I mean do you plan on selling more than 250k in any given year? the impact would only be on gains above that. Unless you are planning on regularly realizing more than 250k in annual gains, I would probably just stick to the current plan.. if you know you have a large purchase coming up or something, just max the 250k realized gains for a few years in advance.

[kwoldtimer]

I mean do you plan on selling more than 250k in any given year? the impact would only be on gains above that. Unless you are planning on regularly realizing more than 250k in annual gains, I would probably just stick to the current plan.. if you know you have a large purchase coming up or something, just max the 250k realized gains for a few years in advance.

Am I correct in thinking that the additional tax will be about $10,000 per $250,000 of capital gain?

[MonctonRad]

I mean do you plan on selling more than 250k in any given year? the impact would only be on gains above that. Unless you are planning on regularly realizing more than 250k in annual gains, I would probably just stick to the current plan.. if you know you have a large purchase coming up or something, just max the 250k realized gains for a few years in advance.

I have a professional corporation. The $250k exclusion does not apply to professional corporations. JT seems fixated on screwing physicians in particular.

[WarrenC12]

Well, I'm gonna sell all my stock bearing mutual funds before the capital gains changes come into effect (still taking a tax hit), and doubling down on good solid predictable dividend paying vehicles like bank stocks for my retirement future.

Great for the banks. Not so good for start-ups looking for investors.............

You can sell enough to generate $250k gains per year without a change in tax rates. I think you'll be ok.

[MolsonExport]

It is interesting how politicians seemingly focus on certain groups. Doug Ford has been a complete disaster for the university sector in Ontario.

[goodgrowth]

Trying to think of a more blatant example of cognitive dissonance than being anti sprawl/car-oriented urban development and pro auto industry subsidies.

[WarrenC12]

Am I correct in thinking that the additional tax will be about $10,000 per $250,000 of capital gain?

Well it will be zero difference at $250k.

Let's say you sell $300k in gains, and your marginal rate is 50%.

Old system:

$300k, 50% marginal rate, 50% inclusion rate = 25% effective rate = $75k tax bill.

New system:
First $250k, 50% marginal rate, 50% inclusion rate = 25% effective rate = $62.5k tax bill.

Next $50k, 50% marginal rate, 66% inclusion rate = 33% effective rate = $16.5k tax bill.

Total new tax bill is $79k. So $4k more. Bear in mind this is somebody making $300k every year in gains. Still paying far less than somebody working a job and earning $300k in wages.

[thewave46]

Trying to think of a more blatant example of cognitive dissonance than being anti sprawl/car-oriented urban development and pro auto industry subsidies.

Pro-high population growth and anti-development mentality?

[MonctonRad]

You can sell enough to generate $250k gains per year without a change in tax rates. I think you'll be ok.

Again, the $250k threshold applies individually, but, not to professional corporations. My capital gains inclusion will increase to 2/3rds from 50% even on the very first dollar of capital gains that I claim.

I'm fucked.

[goodgrowth]

Pro-high population growth and anti-development mentality?

This may be worse as it's a direct endorsement of THE THING that alters societies view on urban planning.

[Acajack]

Again, the $250k threshold applies individually, but, not to professional corporations. My capital gains inclusion will increase to 2/3rds from 50% even on the very first dollar of capital gains that I claim.

I'm fucked.

Ouch. Sounds to me like a "ballot question" if there ever was one.

[whatnext]

This may be worse as it's a direct endorsement of THE THING that alters societies view on urban planning.

Imagine, politicians actually making decisions based on what the public wants and is best for the economy, rather than what some ivory tower planners want. The nerve!

[kwoldtimer]

Ouch. Sounds to me like a "ballot question" if there ever was one.

Not sure that retiring doctors have much of a constituency.

[Innsertnamehere]

I have a professional corporation. The $250k exclusion does not apply to professional corporations. JT seems fixated on screwing physicians in particular.


oof, jeeze. I mean I knew as soon as it was released that it would impact less than the 0.04% of people who they claim it will... Many more people make a capital gains posting large enough to qualify for it, but often it only happens once in a lifetime (sale of a cottage, business, etc.), so doesn't register on an annual basis.

[Innsertnamehere]

Not sure that retiring doctors have much of a constituency.

people who would actually be impacted by it is definitely larger than the 0.04% they claim though. Probably still not significant, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's closer to 5-10% of households which would have some additional tax liability at some point in their life from it.

[P'tit Renard]

You can sell enough to generate $250k gains per year without a change in tax rates. I think you'll be ok.

There's NO $250K exemption for medical professional corps. Doctors get whacked with the 66% capital gain rates inclusion for every single dollar of capital gain starting from $1, and that's even before it's distributed out of the corporation!

Why is Trudeau punishing doctors, but individual real estate speculators get the $250K tax break?

[WarrenC12]

Again, the $250k threshold applies individually, but, not to professional corporations. My capital gains inclusion will increase to 2/3rds from 50% even on the very first dollar of capital gains that I claim.

I'm fucked.

You have benefitted from this reduced tax rate for your entire career.

I realize this government has impacted doctors more than others.

You have had a lower rate compared to other high wage earners for decades.

[whatnext]

people who would actually be impacted by it is definitely larger than the 0.04% they claim though. Probably still not significant, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's closer to 5-10% of households which would have some additional tax liability at some point in their life from it.

Seems to be raising quite a bit of ire amongst doctors. Given the parlous state of Canada's healthcare system any change that risks losing doctors is stupid.

Changes to capital-gains tax may prompt doctors to quit, CMA warns
CHRIS HANNAY INDEPENDENT BUSINESS REPORTER
PUBLISHED 7 HOURS AGO
UPDATED 4 HOURS AGO
FOR SUBSCRIBERS

The head of the Canadian Medical Association says the federal government’s proposed increases to capital-gains taxes will pose a significant financial hit to doctors and may push some out of the profession.

The recent federal budget includes an increase to the capital-gains inclusion rate – up to two-thirds from one-half – which means that more of the income generated from the sale of an asset, such as property or a stock, is taxed.

The first $250,000 of capital gains will continue to be taxed under an inclusion rate of 50 per cent for individuals. But for corporations, the new 67-per-cent rate will kick in on the first dollar of capital gains.

This is important for physicians because most operate their practices as small businesses through medical professional corporations, which leaves them more sensitive to changes in capital-gains rules than a salaried worker might be.

The CMA estimated in 2017 that 66 per cent of physicians practised through corporations.

Kathleen Ross, the president of CMA and a B.C. family physician, said physicians across Canada are feeling strained by high patient counts, rising expenses and limited government funding.

“This really is one more hit to an already beleaguered and low-morale profession,” Dr. Ross said. “I am concerned that overstretched physicians are going to either leave the profession or look at working in other industries.”...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-capital-gains-tax-canadian-medical-association/

[jonny24]

Trying to think of a more blatant example of cognitive dissonance than being anti sprawl/car-oriented urban development and pro auto industry subsidies.

Anti-smoking / pro-tobacco farming? :shrug:

[P'tit Renard]

You have benefitted from this reduced tax rate for your entire career.

I realize this government has impacted doctors more than others.

You have had a lower rate compared to other high wage earners for decades.

That's such a tone-deaf comment. At most the old policy buys doctors some tax deferral.

Given how vital and essential they are to our society and the keystone of our healthcare system, they should not be punished for this government's reckless spending.

Why not instead have capital gains inclusion rates bumped up to 66-100% for residential real estate investments only and hard capping the principal residence exemption like they do in the US? This government chooses instead to pick a fight with doctors, it's idiotic policy.