Statistics Canada Reports II

[Xelebes]

This thread is a continuation of the previous thread. Please proceed.

[MonctonRad]

Archived previous thread here:

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=213258

[MonctonRad]

What's going on with the Stats Can population clock? It hasn't been working for the last 7-10 days.

[MolsonExport]

If the GTA (currently ~7,500,000) grows by 1% per year, by 2050, the GTA will have 9,811,567 people. If the GTA grows by 2% per year, by 2050, the GTA will have 11,948,205 people. If the GTA grows by 3% per year, by 2050, the GTA will have 16,659,668 people.

Okotoks, with a current 3.34% year over year population growth, will grow from 36,338 today to 25,944,928 by 2223.
Woot woot!!

[MonctonRad]

Okotoks, with a current 3.34% year over year population growth, will grow from 36,338 today to 25,944,928 by 2223.
Woot woot!!

Will there be even more things to do in Okotoks at that point, or, simply still a number of things to do???? :)

[phone]

If the GTA (currently ~7,500,000) grows by 1% per year, by 2050, the GTA will have 9,811,567 people. If the GTA grows by 2% per year, by 2050, the GTA will have 11,948,205 people. If the GTA grows by 3% per year, by 2050, the GTA will have 16,659,668 people.

Okotoks, with a current 3.34% year over year population growth, will grow from 36,338 today to 25,944,928 by 2223.
Woot woot!!

What will come first, Austin eclipsing NYC, or Okotoks (as its own CMA distinct from Calgary) eclipsing the GTA?

[MolsonExport]

Okotoks elipsing NYC!

https://media0.giphy.com/media/jpNuN8LJpxMzu/200w.gif?cid=82a1493b8oahdtc52ceh258wknj0vjbxnjk2vrhvujk11pfl&ep=v1_gifs_related&rid=200w.gif&ct=g

And for sure there will be a number of things to do.

[Nashe]

Okotoks elipsing NYC!

https://media0.giphy.com/media/jpNuN8LJpxMzu/200w.gif?cid=82a1493b8oahdtc52ceh258wknj0vjbxnjk2vrhvujk11pfl&ep=v1_gifs_related&rid=200w.gif&ct=g

And for sure there will be a number of things to do.

As long as they can all be done standing up.

[GeneralLeeTPHLS]

Otokok's will reign supreme for the number of things to do will make them the happiest, most productive metro region of all time. :yes: :tup:

In all seriousness, it seems like a fairly big town/city.

[Innsertnamehere]

The real question is which is better - Okotoks or Airdrie.

For a real twist - how about East Gwillimbury? With an annual growth rate between 2016 and 2021 of 8.8%, by 2050 it'll have a population of 408,000 and by 2100 a population of over 28 million! By 2223, a population of over 1 billion people! Even more things to do than Okotoks!

[mapleleaf66]

What's going on with the Stats Can population clock? It hasn't been working for the last 7-10 days.

I noticed that too. Every quarter they adjust the numbers and change the estimates on the graphs, but this is an unusual stoppage. The time clock is running but no numbers. Maybe has something to do with the big under counting of temporary residents earlier this year.

[Hawrylyshyn]

What about Milton?

Currently at 132,000 people -- there was a 71.4% increase from 2001 to 2006 and a 56.5% increase from 2006 to 2011. Slowed down since, but let's get it back to those growth numbers and kick Ocotoks's ass!

[O-tacular]

The real question is which is better - Okotoks or Airdrie.

For a real twist - how about East Gwillimbury? With an annual growth rate between 2016 and 2021 of 8.8%, by 2050 it'll have a population of 408,000 and by 2100 a population of over 28 million! By 2223, a population of over 1 billion people! Even more things to do than Okotoks!

100% Okotoks. It actually has a quaint old town mainstreet with some nice historic buildings and a beautiful river valley. Airdrie is just a suburb with no historic stock, a highway dividing it and a giant ugly water tower from Mars.

[kora]

If the GTA (currently ~7,500,000) grows by 1% per year, by 2050, the GTA will have 9,811,567 people. If the GTA grows by 2% per year, by 2050, the GTA will have 11,948,205 people. If the GTA grows by 3% per year, by 2050, the GTA will have 16,659,668 people.

Okotoks, with a current 3.34% year over year population growth, will grow from 36,338 today to 25,944,928 by 2223.
Woot woot!!

Okotoks has been surpassed by the much faster growing Cochrane, west of Calgary. Only difference is that Cochrane is part of the Calgary CMA, while Okotoks soon will be.


Stats Canada, Population estimates, July 1, by census subdivision, 2016 boundaries

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710014201&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2016&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2022&referencePeriods=20160101%2C20220101

[ssiguy]

Unless there is a major reworking of current boundaries, Okotoks will NEVER be part of the Calgary CMA.

A CMA must be a continuous urban environment and between Okotoks and Calgary is a small section of Foot Hills MD which is not subdivided into towns but surrounds several ie OK/HR. This means that to include OK, the CMA must include all of Foot Hills MD which is a truly massive 3600 km2.

[harls]

Unless there is a major reworking of current boundaries, Okotoks will NEVER be part of the Calgary CMA.

Damn rights. Calgary will become part of Okotoks.

[ssiguy]

I noticed that too. Every quarter they adjust the numbers and change the estimates on the graphs, but this is an unusual stoppage. The time clock is running but no numbers. Maybe has something to do with the big under counting of temporary residents earlier this year.

Ya, that's exactly what I was thinking. When the big banks state that the numbers are grossly undercount, it lowers the credibility of the pop clock itself and even quarterly pop estimates.

[kora]

Unless there is a major reworking of current boundaries, Okotoks will NEVER be part of the Calgary CMA.

A CMA must be a continuous urban environment and between Okotoks and Calgary is a small section of Foot Hills MD which is not subdivided into towns but surrounds several ie OK/HR. This means that to include OK, the CMA must include all of Foot Hills MD which is a truly massive 3600 km2.

It's likely that Foothills MD will be added to the Calgary CMA too. Currently the Calgary CMA boundary ends at the southern City limits. That doesn't make much sense.

Land area comparison of CMAs with similar population:
Ottawa: 8047 km2
Calgary: 5099 km2
Edmonton: 9416 km2

[MonctonRad]

Land area comparison of CMAs with similar population:
Ottawa: 8047 km2
Calgary: 5099 km2
Edmonton: 9416 km2

Land area of the province of PEI - 5,660 km² :)

[MolsonExport]

Ottawa's city limits are absurd. Driving northbound on the 416, you see this sign "Ottawa: Canada's capital. Population 1,000,000". Twenty minutes of more driving, and it is still trees and fields. If it were a bit larger, it could take in Okotoks.

[phone]

It is indeed rather strange that Calgary's CMA is so small geographically. I didn't realize that the Saskatoon CMA had a larger footprint than Calgary's at 5,864 km2. There should be no justification for that.

[1overcosc]

Ottawa's city limits are absurd. Driving northbound on the 416, you see this sign "Ottawa: Canada's capital. Population 1,000,000". Twenty minutes of more driving, and it is still trees and fields. If it were a bit larger, it could take in Okotoks.

Even with that, Ottawa's CMA border actually extends beyond it's city limits on all sides, incorporating Rockland, Embrun, Kemptville, Carleton Place, Almonte, and Arnprior.

[harls]

Carleton Place and Arnprior aren't in the Ottawa CMA. Actually all of those places are just outside the CMA.

[1overcosc]

Carleton Place and Arnprior aren't in the Ottawa CMA. Actually all of those places are just outside the CMA.

Carleton Place, Arnprior, and Almonte were added to the CMA in 2021. Kemptville was added in 2016. Rockland, Embrun, and Russell have been in the CMA since at least the 1990s IIRC.

The addition of Carleton Place, Almonte, and Arnprior is actually why Ottawa-Gatineau retook 4th place from Calgary in 2021. Using the 2016 borders, Calgary would still be bigger.

The fact that it took until 2021 for these places to be added to the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA despite the fact they've been bedroom communities of Ottawa for decades is because of a methodology quirk. At least half the workforce of a municipality has to work in the CMA's central urban area to be included. And because of Ottawa's Greenbelt, Kanata is not counted as part of the central urban area, so all the people from Carleton Place, Almonte, and Arnprior that commute to the Kanata North high tech park are not factored in.

[MonctonRad]

Population clock is now working.

The estimates have been significantly changed.

Yukon now has a larger population than the Northwest Territories! 45,216 vs 45,214. :eek:

Not often you see one geographic territory surpass another one...........

Both NB and PEI somehow misplaced about 5,000 people each. NS is not significantly changed.

[MolsonExport]

Yukon is ahead of NWT by 3 people now. Okotokian-style growth!

[harls]

Carleton Place, Arnprior, and Almonte were added to the CMA in 2021. Kemptville was added in 2016. Rockland, Embrun, and Russell have been in the CMA since at least the 1990s IIRC.

The addition of Carleton Place, Almonte, and Arnprior is actually why Ottawa-Gatineau retook 4th place from Calgary in 2021. Using the 2016 borders, Calgary would still be bigger.

The fact that it took until 2021 for these places to be added to the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA despite the fact they've been bedroom communities of Ottawa for decades is because of a methodology quirk. At least half the workforce of a municipality has to work in the CMA's central urban area to be included. And because of Ottawa's Greenbelt, Kanata is not counted as part of the central urban area, so all the people from Carleton Place, Almonte, and Arnprior that commute to the Kanata North high tech park are not factored in.

My apologies, I didn't know.

The CMA is crazy massive. It is even creeping close to Cornwall..

[MonctonRad]

It's conceivable StatsCan didn't know the population clock wasn't working. I sent them an email at the end of the workday yesterday to apprise them of the situation, and they actually emailed me back today, thanking me for bringing it to their attention, and stating that the clock was now working normally.

[mapleleaf66]

It's conceivable StatsCan didn't know the population clock wasn't working. I sent them an email at the end of the workday yesterday to apprise them of the situation, and they actually emailed me back today, thanking me for bringing it to their attention, and stating that the clock was now working normally.

The guy responsible probably works from home....anyway it looks like Alberta is farther behind BC than before, AB looked to be making significant gains.

[Acajack]

Mostly unrelated but I once knew the guy who took care of Canada's atomic clock that is the official source of time, at the National Research Council of Canada. He took his job very seriously and I doubt he would ever have let it lapse in any way.

[thurmas]

Mostly unrelated but I once knew the guy who took care of Canada's atomic clock that is the official source of time, at the National Research Council of Canada. He took his job very seriously and I doubt he would ever have let it lapse in any way.

Atomic clock? Isn't that just a clock at taco bell?

[MolsonExport]

Atomic clock? Isn't that just a clock at taco bell?

yep, guaranteed diarrhea 1 hour after consuming Taco Hell's mystery meat.

[O-tacular]

It is indeed rather strange that Calgary's CMA is so small geographically. I didn't realize that the Saskatoon CMA had a larger footprint than Calgary's at 5,864 km2. There should be no justification for that.

Calgary has a unicity model meant to try and discourage exurban growth. Nothing can stop Okotoks though!!!

Surprised Cochrane is now part of the CMA as it is quite far from the city limits. About equal distance as Okotoks actually.

[Bobert]

The guy responsible probably works from home....anyway it looks like Alberta is farther behind BC than before, AB looked to be making significant gains.

The boom and bust cycles will make it so Alberta will never really pass BC in our lifetimes. Every few years we get the projections and they always seem to get walked back.

[goodgrowth]

The boom and bust cycles will make it so Alberta will never really pass BC in our lifetimes. Every few years we get the projections and they always seem to get walked back.

BC is going to end up as Alberta's port colony.

Land costs are going to make it so.

[Architype]

The boom and bust cycles will make it so Alberta will never really pass BC in our lifetimes. Every few years we get the projections and they always seem to get walked back.

The difference is not negligible.

Here is my screen shot from April 2023.

https://a4.pbase.com/o12/52/479852/1/173552805.49attF7e.1CanadapopulationApril192023.jpg


The difference between BC and Alberta then was 737,634, now it has increased to 824,733.

[Repthe250]

By statcan estimates, BC grew by 135,000 in 6 months. At that rate, BC should* reach 6 million by Q3 2025.

*obviously these are inflated estimates and census counts always come out well below but still exciting times considering how fucking expensive it is here!

[MonctonRad]

The difference is not negligible.

Here is my screen shot from April 2023.

https://a4.pbase.com/o12/52/479852/1/173552805.49attF7e.1CanadapopulationApril192023.jpg


The difference between BC and Alberta then was 737,634, now it has increased to 824,733.

It is now almost precisely six months from your screen shot. Here are the current estimates from today:

CANADA - 40,438,308 (+619,325)

NL - 540,557 (+7,263)
PE - 175,978 (-261)
NS - 1,068,960 (+24,593)
NB - 843,284 (+12,935)
QC - 8,934,412 (+119,937)
ON - 15,745,247 (+239,690)
MB - 1,466,797 (+30,599)
SK - 1,219,112 (-698)
AB - 4,743,961 (+48,570)
BC - 5,568,688 (+135,663)
YK - 45,217 (+874)
NT - 45,215 (+118)
NU - 40,880 (+42)

Of course, these are revised estimates, and, should be taken with a grain of salt, but, annualized, Canada is on track to grow by roughly 1,240,000 people this year!!! :eek:

NS may pass SK in population sometime by the end of the decade. I am making no firm predictions just because we are dealing with revised estimates.

[Architype]

It is now almost precisely six months from your screen shot. Here are the current estimates from today:

...

Of course, these are revised estimates, and, should be taken with a grain of salt, but, annualized, Canada is on track to grow by roughly 1,240,000 people this year!!! :eek:

NS may pass SK in population sometime by the end of the decade. I am making no firm predictions just because we are dealing with revised estimates.

I use copious amounts of salt with my facts, sometimes numbers DO lie. :rolleyes:

[csbvan]

The difference is not negligible.

Here is my screen shot from April 2023.

https://a4.pbase.com/o12/52/479852/1/173552805.49attF7e.1CanadapopulationApril192023.jpg


The difference between BC and Alberta then was 737,634, now it has increased to 824,733.

Well, that's a narrative buster.

[ssiguy]

I noticed that before the Pop Clock stall, Alberta was at about 4,811,000 and is now 70K less which would result in Alberta being one of the slowest growing provinces. The chances of that are zero so something is REALLY wrong with these new Alberta numbers.

[Architype]

I noticed that before the Pop Clock stall, Alberta was at about 4,811,000 and is now 70K less which would result in Alberta being one of the slowest growing provinces. The chances of that are zero so something is REALLY wrong with these new Alberta numbers.

Maybe it's the Libs tampering with the system, that will reverse when the Conservatives take over. ;)

[jamincan]

I noticed that before the Pop Clock stall, Alberta was at about 4,811,000 and is now 70K less which would result in Alberta being one of the slowest growing provinces. The chances of that are zero so something is REALLY wrong with these new Alberta numbers.

Architype's screenshot is from before it stalled, and it was at 4.7 million then.

In any case, the population clock is just a data visualization tool that uses information from the most recent population estimates to show the current population. It is updated quarterly as new quarterly population estimates are released. You can review the data and see that at no point since the 1980s has Alberta been losing population.

[Centerprovince]

I’m thinking a lot of the discrepancies are possibly because the population clock was adjusted using the 2021 census. The latest quarterly population estimates released in September were the first estimate using the 2021 census.

[MonctonRad]

There are now five more people in the YT than the NT. This horserace is over!!! :)

[Drybrain]

NS may pass SK in population sometime by the end of the decade. I am making no firm predictions just because we are dealing with revised estimates.

Possible, but I probably wouldn't bet on it. (Even though as an east coaster I'd love to see our largest province bigger than the prairies' smallest!)

Saskatchewan had 195,000 more people than NS five years ago. Now, according to both the Q3 estimates and this new population clock data, it has about 150,000 more. But it in the past year SK's formerly sluggish growth has picked up again. NS is still growing faster, but the discrepancy would have to grow much more (i.e., NS pick up even further, and SK slow down again) for them to swap places anytime soon.

I think probably NS will continue to gain, but how fast is up in the air.

[MolsonExport]

For years we've been hearing about the boom in Saskatchewan, and how Moe is some economic sage, but the population has barely budged.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b8/Saskatchewan_population_growth.png?20070528013010

[LuluBobo]

For years we've been hearing about the boom in Saskatchewan, and how Moe is some economic sage, but the population has barely budged.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b8/Saskatchewan_population_growth.png?20070528013010

Your graph ends in 2005, when the boom started.

Saskatchewan hit 920,000 in 1931, fell down to 830,000 in 1951, and has shuffled between 925,000 and 1,000,000 between 1961 and 2006.

If the graph extends

2001 - 978,000
2006 - 985,000
2011 - 1,053,000
2016 - 1,098,000
2021 - 1,132,000
2023 (Jul 1 Estimate) - 1,209,000


Now, I'm the last one to say anything nice about Moe.

But Saskatchewan was basically stuck at the same population for 75 years. We hit our all time high in 2011, and have grown by 175,000 since then.

https://i.imgur.com/Kn1ljiz.png

[phone]

For years we've been hearing about the boom in Saskatchewan, and how Moe is some economic sage, but the population has barely budged.


Who is saying that Moe is an economic sage? He is a glassy-eyed buffoon content to leave things on autopilot (stop signs be damned) -- except, of course, when it comes to recalling the legislature to invoke the notwithstanding clause. Him and the rest of his clown car cabinet.

Frankly, I don't blame anyone for leaving. Our government is an utter embarrassment that deserves to witness sustained outmigration as a testament to its dereliction of duty to its citizens.

[1overcosc]

SK has transformed quite substantially in the last 20 years, from a perennial basketcase to a prosperous place. Maritimes are in the middle of that switch now. It's a good thing - makes for a much healthier federation when there isn't just a handful of provinces carrying all the weight.

[O-tacular]

Who is saying that Moe is an economic sage? He is a glassy-eyed buffoon content to leave things on autopilot (stop signs be damned) -- except, of course, when it comes to recalling the legislature to invoke the notwithstanding clause. Him and the rest of his clown car cabinet.

Frankly, I don't blame anyone for leaving. Our government is an utter embarrassment that deserves to witness sustained outmigration as a testament to its dereliction of duty to its citizens.

Your government and ours!!! At least Manitobans were smart enough to ditch theirs.

[LuluBobo]

Ultimately, the country as a whole benefits when economic/population growth happens outside Ontario/Quebec/BC/Alberta.

We can generate a more diverse economy that is better able to weather economic storms. And we can reduce housing/infrastructure pressure away from lower mainland/southern Ontario.

We know all this growth is happening in CMAs.

The growth and vitality of Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Halifax, Moncton, St. John's will only make the country as a whole healthier.

Not that the big cities shouldn't grow too, but everyone wins when everyone grows.

The States having growth hotspots around the country has been a big part of their economic success over the last 200 years.

[someone123]

Canada doesn't really have a lot of habitable regions and options to move to so failing to develop a region comes at a big cost. The Maritimes were the worst example of this, and didn't just fail to develop but fell apart for a while as part of Canada. I would argue that all of Western Canada is probably underdeveloped as well.

Canadians are somewhat bad for being defeatist and regionalist and assuming other places are not fixable or don't have value, though I get the impression this has improved during the past couple decades. Again with the Maritimes you hear people saying it's turning the corner and so on but it's not really that different from 20 years ago and the gap between cities places hasn't changed that much. It's true that most Canadian cities are more interesting now in an absolute sense, but if you lived in 1992 you had 1992 options.

[svlt]

Canada doesn't really have a lot of habitable regions and options to move to so failing to develop a region comes at a big cost. The Maritimes were the worst example of this, and didn't just fail to develop but fell apart for a while as part of Canada. I would argue that all of Western Canada is probably underdeveloped as well.

Canadians are somewhat bad for being defeatist and regionalist and assuming other places are not fixable or don't have value, though I get the impression this has improved during the past couple decades. Again with the Maritimes you hear people saying it's turning the corner and so on but it's not really that different from 20 years ago and the gap between cities places hasn't changed that much. It's true that most Canadian cities are more interesting now in an absolute sense, but if you lived in 1992 you had 1992 options.

The Maritimes are absolutely a lost opportunity. This is a region that should be 3x as large and economically relevant to this country than it is. Instead we have Toronto, Montreal, the Prairies and BC as essentially the four nodes that mean anything in the country. That's laughable when you look across the border and see the huge amount of iconic business and cultural centers they've developed.

[MolsonExport]

two cities and two huge regions as "nodes"?

Canadian Prairies: 1,780,650.6 km2
That is one heck of a large node.

https://y.yarn.co/d877a3dd-c89f-4037-acae-402efd92c932_text.gif

[phone]

3 times seems like a stretch but I would definitely believe 2 times. 6 million people in NB/NS/PEI sounds unrealistic even if in an alternate reality where the National Policy wasn’t a thing. Honestly, the Maritimes best case scenario for socioeconomic heft may have been joining the Thirteen Colonies. In any event, might as well put out there that basically the whole country has a much higher “carrying capacity” than is currently being realized, the Maritimes aren’t really all that special in that regard (even if proportionately speaking they are probably the more glaring example of this phenomenon).

[lio45]

For years we've been hearing about the boom in Saskatchewan, and how Moe is some economic sage, but the population has barely budged.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/b8/Saskatchewan_population_growth.png?20070528013010If SSP had existed in the 1920s people would have been arguing when exactly Saskatchewan would be overtaking Ontario and Quebec combined :haha:

[someone123]

In any event, might as well put out there that basically the whole country has a much higher “carrying capacity” than is currently being realized, the Maritimes aren’t really all that special in that regard (even if proportionately speaking they are probably the more glaring example of this phenomenon).

I would look at outmigration and maybe economic activity rather than carrying capacity, which is hard to nail down in the modern world (Gaza has 2 million people for example, but fewer resources than PEI).

I doubt the West had as much outmigration as the Maritimes or Atlantic Canada. Maybe Saskatchewan did but a lot of that migration was internal to Western Canada while in the Atlantic region people left entirely. They left (and weren't replaced) because of a disparity in local opportunities and opportunities available elsewhere. The major outmigration was concentrated in a few periods, like the 1920's, and you could calculate what the demographics would have looked like without it. Neither the West nor Atlantic populations were governed by Malthusian concerns like food supply.

The Maritimes also had the harshest history in Canada. In the 1750's much of the population was deported and then in the 1910's most of the industrial base of the largest city was blown up. You could try to figure out counterfactuals for those too.

Some of these things have a "tipping point" based around qualitative factors like where there's a single diversified metropolitan economy. That did develop in Calgary and Edmonton in Alberta, and they do pretty well now even when oil and gas is in the doldrums. Places like Saint John and Sydney never hit that, and Halifax is borderline.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Saint John was also destroyed by fire in 1877, left 20,000 people without homes.

This is from an excerpt on The Great Fire of Saint John,

"When it was over, the fire had destroyed over 80 hectares (200 hundred acres) and 1612 structures including eight churches, six banks, fourteen hotels, eleven schooners and four wood boats in just over a nine hour period. Nearly all the public buildings, the principal retail establishments, lawyers' offices and all but two printing firms were burned in the inferno. To make matters worse, less than one fourth of the $28 million in losses was covered by insurance."

[DLLB]

That was a huge and strange drop for Alberta of 55,876 between Oct 1/23 and Nov 1/23
Fault in the system, over correction?

DATE ..................... Oct 1/23 ....... Nov 1/23 .... Monthly Diff .. Yr over Yr
Ontario .............. 15,708,581 ... 15,752,905 .... 44,324 ........ 552,730
Manitoba ............. 1,458,809 .... 1,467,600 ........ 8,791 ........... 52,505
Saskatchewan .... 1,234,098 .... 1,219,709 ..... -14,389 .......... 20,689
Alberta ................ 4,802,625 .... 4,746,749 ..... -55,876 ........ 174,424
British Columbia .. 5,511,224 .... 5,571,130 ...... 59,906 ........ 217,238

[blueandgoldguy]

That was a huge and strange drop for Alberta of 55,876 between Oct 1/23 and Nov 1/23
Fault in the system, over correction?

DATE ..................... Oct 1/23 ....... Nov 1/23 .... Monthly Diff .. Yr over Yr
Ontario .............. 15,708,581 ... 15,752,905 .... 44,324 ........ 552,730
Manitoba ............. 1,458,809 .... 1,467,600 ........ 8,791 ........... 52,505
Saskatchewan .... 1,234,098 .... 1,219,709 ..... -14,389 .......... 20,689
Alberta ................ 4,802,625 .... 4,746,749 ..... -55,876 ........ 174,424
British Columbia .. 5,511,224 .... 5,571,130 ...... 59,906 ........ 217,238

ooooohhhhhh. At that rate Manitoba is growing the population may actually surpass Edmonton's and Calgary's metros in a few years.

[zahav]

Definitely seems like an error with the Alberta figure, their growth has been very elevated and that hasn't changed in the last few months. What it could be, rather than a slowdown or shrinkage from recent figures, is an adjustment because past estimates were too high at the time? So might mean it is still growing fast, but this adjustment takes into account overestimation from previous months all added at once, resulting in what looks like anemic growth?

[someone123]

At these growth rates, PEI will pass Alberta in a mere decades.

[thurmas]

ooooohhhhhh. At that rate Manitoba is growing the population may actually surpass Edmonton's and Calgary's metros in a few years.

What the hell at that rate Manitoba would be growing at over 100k per year. Maybe ex pats Manitobans are being priced out of Calgary and moving back home?

[giallo]

BC grew by 217,238 people in a 12 month period? Crazy to see. BC's population growth has always been a bit of a slow burn.

[Wigs]

BC grew by 217,238 people in a 12 month period? Crazy to see. BC's population growth has always been a bit of a slow burn.

That's wild. Keep it up and that's over 2M people in a decade!



What the hell at that rate Manitoba would be growing at over 100k per year. Maybe ex pats Manitobans are being priced out of Calgary and moving back home?

Maybe Manitobans that moved not just to Alberta, but all across Canada are retiring back home.

Coming from southern Ontario or lower mainland BC they could afford an amazing house for not a high price. Coming from Calgary with their recent rapid housing price rise now too.

I'm glad to hear. I have a soft spot for Winnipeg and Manitoba in general. I want both Winnipeg and Québec City to be over 1M and continue to grow.

[Centerprovince]

Alberta is still booming, and Manitoba did not grow by over 50,000 people in the last six months. Those latest numbers are now based off the 2021 census, the previous numbers were still based on the 2016 census. So those new numbers are simply a correction. When the next population estimates are released, it will be a more accurate reflection of recent trends.

[SignalHillHiker]

URL is in the top. If they have us, they likely have all of your cities too :haha:

The website goes into excruciating detail about their methodology. And it uses StatsCan data.

https://i.postimg.cc/3NL49M1K/IMG-4709.jpg
www.canadiansuburbs.ca

[zoomer]

/\ pretty cool find. What’s up with it showing St. John’s with 0% Transit suburb though? Doesn’t seem right.

Victoria’s numbers are:

Active Core: 21%
Transit Suburb: 9%
Auto Suburb: 66%
Exurban: 4%

[SignalHillHiker]

I think it’s probably fair. Our only transit is the bus and, while the system is feeling the burden of a large growth in ridership, it’s still going to areas built for cars, where most people have their own.

I get off the bus every morning at the Village Mall, which is one of the main transfer hubs. There’s always a half dozen or so buses stopping at once when mine is there. No matter when I arrive in the morning or leave in the evening, almost all are only half full except the ones going to Mount Pearl and the Goulds, two of our farthest-out suburbs that are still served by the bus (most of the suburban municipalities don’t participate in funding it and aren’t covered). So if they had a proper transit one it’d be out on the fringes in his map, which doesn’t really feel right.

I would tweak the core a little, though. The smaller yellow one directly below downtown, left of the larger yellow Southside Hills, that’s definitely core. It’s far more core than the two green ones out by Memorial University along the edges of Pippy Park. So whatever the stats say, I’d be shocked is anyone could come here and not agree with switching those around.

[Drybrain]

I think it’s probably fair. Our only transit is the bus and, while the system is feeling the burden of a large growth in ridership, it’s still going to areas built for cars, where most people have their own.

I get off the bus every morning at the Village Mall, which is one of the main transfer hubs. There’s always a half dozen or so buses stopping at once when mine is there. No matter when I arrive in the morning or leave in the evening, almost all are only half full except the ones going to Mount Pearl and the Goulds, two of our farthest-out suburbs that are still served by the bus (most of the suburban municipalities don’t participate in funding it and aren’t covered). So if they had a proper transit one it’d be out on the fringes in his map, which doesn’t really feel right.

I would tweak the core a little, though. The smaller yellow one directly below downtown, left of the larger yellow Southside Hills, that’s definitely core. It’s far more core than the two green ones out by Memorial University along the edges of Pippy Park. So whatever the stats say, I’d be shocked is anyone could come here and not agree with switching those around.

I see St. John's as 11 percent transit suburb (https://schoolofcities.utoronto.ca/research/canadian-suburbs-atlas/), which correlates to the Censusmapper overlay of transit to work, if you compare to that.

Some of the methodology can seem a little odd. For example, when I looked at Calgary, it's active core seemed bizarrely massive, extending way northwest--but then I realized that was the U of C campus. It's not really a contiguous part of the urban core at all, but I'm sure the concentration of students and staff there do create a higher active-transport percentage. Also, active cores are defined as cores where rates of walking and biking to work are 1.5 times greater than the CMA average--so active cores aren't defined by some national baseline, but relative to each specific city overall.

So we could quibble with that. Still pretty interesting in general though.

[someone123]

If you look at the methodology they say they use both transportation modal share and census tract level density numbers in classification (didn't see them mention something like population-weighted density but maybe they do some corrections). The transportation modal share data is presumably good while the census tract level density numbers are incredibly noisy, particularly in smaller and more geographically complicated cities. You can easily find census tracts made up of some highrises, an industrial park, and then multiple square kilometers of forest or farmland.

Given the amount of data that can be easily processed now you'd think Statistics Canada could provide something more like a point cloud model of where people live and work, with a bit of randomness added for anonymization.

[niwell]

That's a really interesting dataset. One thing that popped out to me is that Toronto's "Active Core" population is actually slightly higher than Montreal's, though the latter's makes up a larger percentage of the overall population. In terms of "Transit Suburb" Toronto's is both significantly larger and makes up a higher percentage of the population, but it captures a lot of suburban tower neighbourhoods that are reliant on transit and not what we'd consider traditionally urban. Meanwhile there are some very pleasant streetcar suburb style neighbourhoods classified as "auto suburb" which assume corresponds to their wealth/corresponding lifestyle (North on Yonge, Kingsway).

[Kilgore Trout]

This is very interesting because it shows how many neighbourhoods are functionally urban as opposed to densely populated. There are definitely some surprises though. I'm wondering how on earth Ville-Émard can be classified as a "transit suburb" when most of it looks like this:

https://maps.app.goo.gl/hToyKoim9DJCsrmb7

And it has a general population density of around 100-150 people per hectare, which is similar to Toronto's west end and many "active core" parts of Montreal. But I guess it depends on transportation modal share, and being somewhat peripheral means there's just that many more people using cars compared to some very similarly built neighbourhoods elsewhere in the city.

Edit: Actually, looking at more cities I'm a bit suspicious. I would consider all of Nanaimo to be suburban, even the areas right downtown, and yet there are quite a few areas listed as "active core." I suppose a better metric for urban/suburban would be one that finds a way to include both transportation data and population density.

Edit 2: I was thinking about this today (and yes, I do somtimes walk around thinking about SSP theads) and this functions really well as an index of car dependency. Somewhere like Ville-Émard might be dense, it might have direct access to rapid transit, but something structural is preventing it from being "active urban."

[P'tit Renard]

https://i.postimg.cc/TwN6pQJK/Capture.jpg

https://torontofoundation.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/TF-TVS-Microsite-Infographics-v05-A-1024x563.png

https://torontofoundation.ca/powerofus#thefindings

[jamincan]

I'm surprised the Maritimes and Atlantic Canada are so high. They seem far more community-oriented to me, which you would think would reduce loneliness.

[Drybrain]

I'm surprised the Maritimes and Atlantic Canada are so high. They seem far more community-oriented to me, which you would think would reduce loneliness.

I wondered about that too, especially because Statcan actually produces "loneliness" statistics (https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=4510004801) that show people in the Atlantic region report being "always or often" or "sometimes" lonely less often than the national average, and less than in Ontario, the prairies and BC (but more than Quebec).

Ultimately it seems like a pretty nebulous, subjective thing for a survey to nail down anyway. Does loneliness mean different things to different people? Maybe to someone in a region with high connectivity and many family and social ties, loneliness is more easily triggered, whereas people in a highly mobile area, with fewer deep ties and more casual ties, are less sensitive to it (or at least have a higher threshold for what they report as "loneliness.") Do people from different culture experience or report loneliness differently, leading to different responses in more multicultural areas? All hard to say. The Statcan data also shows, with the exception of Quebec, regional results that seem to differ by barely more than a margin of error. So I'm not sure it's that meaningful.

[Acajack]

I wondered about that too, especially because Statcan actually produces "loneliness" statistics (https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=4510004801) that show people in the Atlantic region report being "always or often" or "sometimes" lonely less often than the national average, and less than in Ontario, the prairies and BC (but more than Quebec).

Ultimately it seems like a pretty nebulous, subjective thing for a survey to nail down anyway. Does loneliness mean different things to different people? Maybe to someone in a region with high connectivity and many family and social ties, loneliness is more easily triggered, whereas people in a highly mobile area, with fewer deep ties and more casual ties, are less sensitive to it (or at least have a higher threshold for what they report as "loneliness.") Do people from different culture experience or report loneliness differently, leading to different responses in more multicultural areas? All hard to say. The Statcan data also shows, with the exception of Quebec, regional results that seem to differ by barely more than a margin of error. So I'm not sure it's that meaningful.

Most of my family roots are in the Maritimes. I think I've mentioned before that the Maritimes are a bit of a feast or famine in terms of human contact. People are among the friendliest in Canada with strangers but forming true relationships is a lot more challenging than that friendliness would lead you to believe.

A decent-sized chunk of the population are from families who've been in the region since the 1800s and so all of their social networks are well-established and often you need a really good "in" in order to carve yourself out a spot in these circles. People aren't mean or anything - it's just force of habit to hang out with the same crowd.

I realize YMMV and a larger place like Halifax might be a bit different. But overall I have always found the Maritimes - even in the smaller cities - to trend this way.

It's admittedly a very satisfying and comfortable place to live for those who are "in" (and not saying it's that hard to achieve) but maybe not so fun for those who are left out for reasons XYZ. Or at least not really that much better than in a big allegedly impersonal city like Toronto.

[SFUVancouver]

Hamilton CMA, based on the suburbs mapping project:

Active Core: 12.3% (96,550 people) <- one of those is me!
Transit Suburb: 9.3% (72,920 people)
Auto Suburb: 72.5% (569,227 people)
Exurb: 5.9% (46,434 people)

https://www.canadiansuburbs.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Hamilton_2021.pdf

Disappointingly, this seems pretty accurate.

[ssiguy]

Interesting that London actually has amongst the highest downtown & transit friendly ratios in the country and is tied with Montreal at 30%. Such a statistic would not play well into NJB's narrative about the city so no doubt he will ignore the stat.

[Acajack]

Interesting that London actually has amongst the highest downtown & transit friendly ratios in the country and is tied with Montreal at 30%. Such a statistic would not play well into NJB's narrative about the city so no doubt he will ignore the stat.

Who is NJB?

Now, I've looked at those maps and while interesting, quite a few of them seem off. For example Quebec City is way more car-oriented in reality than what it's given credit for.

[phone]

Who is NJB?

Now, I've looked at those maps and while interesting, quite a few of them seem off. For example Quebec City is way more car-oriented in reality than what it's given credit for.

Not Just Bikes?

[ssiguy]

Yes, Not Just Bikes with his condescending comments about his hometown of "fake London".

[kwoldtimer]

Yes, Not Just Bikes with his condescending comments about his hometown of "fake London".

I prefer to think of it as London Junior, or "the one not in Europe".

[ericmacm]

London is always going to have a bad rep because it is a city that formed from an automobile-focused postwar boom, has minimal conventionally nice/interesting natural geography or features, visually has a lot in common with American rust belt cities, has a city council that thinks regressively, and doesn't really have a core unique identity (as of yet at least) that many of our largest cities do.

I have actually found London to be really underrated since moving here. Lots of people talk like it is a total dumpster but it really isn't. It offers a huge range of housing options and definitely offers way more variety for medium to high-density residential all across the city (even on the outer fringes) compared to other mid-sized cities in Canada. Along most major road corridors, there is generally a solid amount of diversity of land use with commercial, high density residential, and low-density residential all kind of mixed in together so you don't have to travel long distances all the time to get necessities. The urban form often leaves a lot to be desired, but at the end of the day, it is really functional for what it is and that's what matters in daily life.

I honestly think once London finally pulls its head out of the sand and builds a proper rapid transit network to deal with the traffic problem (traffic is easily one of the worst things about living here), it will be seen as one of the best cities in Canada to live in.

[rdaner]

I agree that London gets a bad rap. And aren't there three or four new developments opening downtown this year which will boost the population?

[Metro-One]

I recently watched a few NJB videos. The guy has a massive hard on for Amsterdam. He does have some really good points, but he does tread towards black and white, hyperbole rhetoric. He also tends to cherry pick the absolute worst urban examples of North America and then paints everywhere on the continent with that brush.

[ericmacm]

I agree that he tends to have good points, but there definitely is a personal bias in his content. I can’t blame anyone for hating the city that they grew up in, and I also can’t blame anyone for leaving Canada to seek a European urbanist lifestyle if that’s what one ultimately wants (there is nothing even remotely close to that here in Canada). There is a lot we can learn from European cities and I’m glad he is out here producing that kind of content to start these discussions here and elsewhere.

However, I do find the tone of NJB videos quite abrasive and condescending even though the overarching points are valid. People do like angry creators, but because of this general kind of tone, I think the people who need to hear his perspective the most will dismiss his viewpoints. This is unfortunately the worst aspect of many of the engineer/engineering-type creators that make these kinds of videos.

[Nouvellecosse]

Yes I agree about NJB. His content tends to be excellent in terms of the actual facts and research, but the tone can be a problem. Everyone has a personal bias, but the NJB style of mocking places with development styles he doesn't like definitely isn't going to change many minds. That content is there for people who already agree to nod and say "amen" to. The best approach when it comes to changing minds is to meet the opposition where it is which entails empathizing with the opposition and explaining why their concerns can actually be addressed by your prescriptions.

Mocking them basically just implies that people with different priorities are stupid and their values and concerns are so irrelevant that they don't even need to be taken seriously. Which you're welcome to believe and it may even be true, but it isn't useful if the goal is to persuade. It's pretty rare to get someone to agree with you by telling them that they're stupid. Which is unfortunate because he often does a good job of presenting counter arguments and addressing concerns. He just doesn't present them in a way that people will find palatable.

[thewave46]

NJB reminds me of John Oliver, but at least NJB isn't trying to be funny.

Then again, John Oliver fails so badly at being funny I often question if he is actually a comedian. Yet people gobble it up. Bizarre.

[Nouvellecosse]

NJB reminds me of John Oliver, but at least NJB isn't trying to be funny.

Then again, John Oliver fails so badly at being funny I often question if he is actually a comedian. Yet people gobble it up. Bizarre.

With Oliver I think it's mostly just a case of you and him having different senses of humour rather than him having any sort comedic deficiency. Obviously his humour appeals to a big enough percentage of people that he is able to be successful. Personally, while i don't always find him funny, I do often find him funny.

With NJB, I think he does try to be funny but it's just such dry humour that if it doesn't succeed you don't notice the attempt.

[theman23]

Great news if you own a Tim Hortons in this country:
jpw1dnAF9C4
As of October, the labour force has grown by 81,000 a month in 2023 but only added 28,000 jobs a month. The latter is on a downward trend, with job growth in October down to 18,000.
Source:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231103/dq231103a-eng.htm

[thewave46]

Indeed, importing people at a rate four times the job growth rate will certainly help that unemployment rate. It’s been far too low for too long - we need to get it up past 7%, stat. At 0.1-0.2% increase per month, the scheme will likely be complete by the Liberals face the electorate again. Maybe even quicker if the resources/debt/housing quicksand the Canadian economy is so stably built upon starts shifting.

Indeed, for the briefest of windows, low wage labour did have some leverage for improving its condition. Silly peons, improving working conditions are for Landed Gentry.

Fortunately for the Landed Gentry, the continued mass wave of people arriving have kept home prices high despite 5% Bank of Canada rates and their rental properties bursting at the seams. If for a moment one was worried about the Landed Gentry losing their overleveraged homes or their amateur landlord status, fear not.

Team Red/Orange, the real heroes of the little guy.

[lio45]

Great news if you own a Tim Hortons in this country:
jpw1dnAF9C4
As of October, the labour force has grown by 81,000 a month in 2023 but only added 28,000 jobs a month. The latter is on a downward trend, with job growth in October down to 18,000.
Source:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231103/dq231103a-eng.htmIt’s also good news if you own a portfolio of urban real estate. It (the Scheme) is the main cause for optimism at the moment (interest rates being the main cause for pessimism).

Edit — thewave46 totally beat me to it :)

[Nouvellecosse]

Team Red/Orange, the real heroes of the little guy.

Yes, orders of magnitude better, even if one doesn't agree with all individual decisions. We can't make much of month to month changes since there's a lag time in economics, but for one, they're less prone to pitting different "little guys" against one another. The age old "they're terking er jeeerbs!" rhetoric while ignoring the much larger effects of supply-side economics and the corporate race toward the bottom strategy has been successful at devastating the middle class over the decades. Though it's important not to ignore the difference between red and orange as the red part former is much more corporatist than the latter.

[thewave46]

Yes, orders of magnitude better, even if one doesn't agree with all individual decisions. We can't make much of month to month changes since there's a lag time in economics, but for one, they're less prone to pitting different "little guys" against one another. The age old "they're terking er jeeerbs!" rhetoric while ignoring the much larger effects of supply-side economics and the corporate race toward the bottom strategy has been successful at devastating the middle class over the decades. Though it's important not to ignore the difference between red and orange as the red part is former is much more corporatist than the latter.

If there's been something devastating to the middle class in the last decade, huge property price appreciation and rent inflation has been it. I recall middle-class neighbours raising four kids in a bungalow in the 1980s and 1990s. Seems but a dream now for anyone below the upper-middle class in all but the cheapest locales.

I care not of the colour of the political party, nor their ostensible party platform. That's partisan bullshit, and if Team Orange abets Team Red's corporatism, they wear the stain of it too. If government is so blind to their own failings are to make Team Blue appear the better option (see my cynicism on Team Blue's pitch in my previous posts), we deserve what we get.

Oh, but the housing price appreciation felt so good and the cost of screwing over the future wasn't felt at the time. Until we had to keep it up, because we'd built a little scheme. In keeping up the scheme via high immigration, we traded away the pressure release valve of ordinary times. One might lose their overleveraged house, but they'd at least land with somewhat affordable rent. Except that option's gone in many places. Lose the house and get hosed on rent. Proper screwed, with no path forward.

Pressure comes out somewhere. I like safety release valves personally, but watching things go 'Bang!' in ugly ways is fun too.

[Nouvellecosse]

If there's been something devastating to the middle class in the last decade, huge property price appreciation and rent inflation has been it. I recall middle-class neighbours raising four kids in a bungalow in the 1980s and 1990s. Seems but a dream now for anyone below the upper-middle class in all but the cheapest locales.

I care not of the colour of the political party, nor their ostensible party platform. That's partisan bullshit, and if Team Orange abets Team Red's corporatism, they wear the stain of it too. If government is so blind to their own failings are to make Team Blue appear the better option (see my cynicism on Team Blue's pitch in my previous posts), we deserve what we get.

Oh, but the housing price appreciation felt so good and the cost of screwing over the future wasn't felt at the time. Until we had to keep it up, because we'd built a little scheme. In keeping up the scheme via high immigration, we traded away the pressure release valve of ordinary times. One might lose their overleveraged house, but they'd at least land with somewhat affordable rent. Except that option's gone in many places. Lose the house and get hosed on rent. Proper screwed, with no path forward.

Pressure comes out somewhere. I like safety release valves personally, but watching things go 'Bang!' in ugly ways is fun too.

A guy was out road biking down the highway when he notices a small dark smudge on the side of his right leg. He realizes that his chain must have rubbed against his skin at some point. Annoyed, he stops to wipe off the smudge. At that moment his dirt biker friend emerges from a forest trail covered head to toe in mud. His friend comes over takes a look at him and says well, well, well. You always claimed you didn't want to try dirt biking because it was too messy and you wanted to stay clean. But I guess you should have taken up dirt biking after all. I don't have a single spot of bike grease on me!

But seriously this whole topic is verging on the ludicrous. First of all, the housing affordability crisis is the result of income inequality rather than vice versa. David Hulchansky, Canada's foremost housing policy expert and PhD author, researcher, and UofT professor has written about the topic in great detail. You can access a full discussion he gave on the topic here (https://open.library.ubc.ca/cIRcle/collections/ubclecturesseminarssymposia/67634/items/1.0384875). So while it's a complex issue with many variables, if you want to blame anyone for housing unaffordability the best place to start is with those whose policies have most increased inequality prior to the crisis taking hold. Policies that erode union protections, allow inflation to outpace minimum wages, reduce corporate taxes, increase corporate welfare, weaken the social safety net, etc.

The NDP are well aware that for all the liberal shortcomings they are significantly better in all such regards compared to the conservatives. And since the the NDP aren't poised to actually take power any time soon which is the only way to actually implement their preferred policies, keeping the conservatives out of power as long as possible is pragmatically the most good they can do. There's no "smudge" associated with them for making that (correct) calculation unless you think they could have actually enacted their preferred policies somehow?

[someone123]

So while it's a complex issue with many variables, if you want to blame anyone for housing unaffordability the best place to start is with those whose policies have most increased inequality prior to the crisis taking hold. Policies that erode union protections, allow inflation to outpace minimum wages, reduce corporate taxes, increase corporate welfare, weaken the social safety net, etc.

This doesn't really pass the sniff test as far as current prices go in major markets like Toronto or Vancouver. There isn't any reasonable adjustment of wages that could be made such that real estate would become widely affordable. Material from 2019 is outdated now as prices have increased while interest costs multiplied.

If you're talking about 2010's Vancouver rents or Toronto housing prices, sure, raising wages by some fraction through unionization or something might have helped. Those days are gone.

The main drivers these days are immigration-driven population growth relative to new supply and financial/regulatory considerations relating to housing itself that leads to bubbly pricing. I don't think these clearly map on to the NDP vs. Cons. The NDP have had more of a role in the current government that has overseen a catastrophic deterioration of housing affordability in the last few years. IMO the Canadian public doesn't really grasp the magnitude of what has gone wrong and there are so many third rails and sacred cows in Canada that politicians can't generally propose the kind of policy shift that's needed (fiscal discipline, halting human QE and live with miserable economic growth numbers, building lots of housing even if it annoys NIMBYs, etc.).

[someone123]

I don't have any strong opinions on London ON but I don't think those statistics capture what this NJB person cares about. London will tend to look relatively good on density stats because it has "well packed" development with few geographical barriers (while a place like Stockholm would have a big census tract level density penalty). Commuting transport mode is interesting but doesn't get at urbanism very directly and I wonder how relevant it is in the post-Covid WFH environment. Is work from home a mode or do they shrink the denominator? What if you work from home 3 days and go in 2 days?

For NJB you'd want to look at whether there are vibrant areas of mixed use where people in practice get around on foot or by bike for day-to-day activities (not just commuting). I will leave it to others to debate whether lots of people in London ON live an Amsterdam-like lifestyle that includes things like many short trips to small scale local businesses.

[thewave46]

The main drivers these days are immigration-driven population growth relative to new supply and financial/regulatory considerations relating to housing itself that leads to bubbly pricing. I don't think these clearly map on to the NDP vs. Cons. The NDP have had more of a role in the current government that has overseen a catastrophic deterioration of housing affordability in the last few years. IMO the Canadian public doesn't really grasp the magnitude of what has gone wrong and there are so many third rails and sacred cows in Canada that politicians can't generally propose the kind of policy shift that's needed (fiscal discipline, halting human QE and live with miserable economic growth numbers, building lots of housing even if it annoys NIMBYs, etc.).

Pretty much this.

The various 'prop up things by thowing money/half-assed solution at it' avenues are closing, and late-era government policy is mostly the act of trying to pretend things are fine when they're not.

So, what would make me happy?

1. Acknowledgement that pain has to come via deleveraging and not just piling on more debt at a consumer or government level.
2. The acceptance that people who bought insanely inflated-price homes and can no longer afford them are going to lose said homes and will not be bailed out.
3. A reduction of the amount of students/TFWs entering the country to reduce pressure on the rental side of the housing market when this happens, so that those locals who are losing their homes will have somewhere to land and rebuild.
4. This reduction in labour supply will take the sting out of the inevitable recession and prevent a big pop upwards in unemployment numbers.
5. A policy of pro-housing and pro-rental development in context of the expected growth of the country so as to divorce the idea that one's shelter is also an appreciating financial asset.
6. Government moves towards balance by accepting that its programs must be paid for by taxes and not obligations to future generations.
7. Tighter restrictions on future mortgages.

This will be an ugly process, but perhaps controllable if we accept it as a process. It's just less ugly than the big oscillations of government will be when some sort of world financial/debt crisis hits us smack in the face without warning.