CrooklynDodger
Sep 13, 2007, 9:07 AM
Seeing as StatsCan 2006 estimate was grossly under 2006 estimates what do you think is the true Metro population?
Some liturature from BC stats:
Census Figures vs. Population Estimates For more information
contact Dave O'Neil (250) 387-0335
Why do the Census figures differ from the estimates of the population presented in the population pages of this web site?
The objective of every Census is to provide detailed information at a single point in time on the demographic, social and economic conditions of the population. One of its goals is to enumerate the entire population on Census Day. Inevitably, however, some people are not counted, either because their household did not receive a Census questionnaire (for example, a household living in a separate apartment in a house) or because they were not included in the questionnaire completed by the household (for example, a boarder or lodger). Some people may also be missed because they have no usual residence, and did not spend census night in any dwelling. On the other hand, a small number of people may also be counted twice (for example, a student living away from home).
To determine how many individuals were missed, or counted more than once, Statistics Canada conducts post-censal coverage studies of a representative sample of individuals. The results of these studies provide information that is used to adjust the Census counts for the purpose of producing current (quarterly and annual) population estimates, which take into account net under-enumeration in the Census.
For example, in 2001, after adjustment for net under-enumeration, the population estimate for Canada was 2.99% higher than the population enumerated in the Census and the population estimate for British Columbia was 4.04% higher than the Census count. For more information, please see the document How many people were missed in the 2001 Census?.
Currently stats BC has this model for population as of 2007 and onward:
15000 Greater Vancouver 2006 T 2,218,561
15000 Greater Vancouver 2007 T 2,255,373
15000 Greater Vancouver 2008 T 2,290,568
15000 Greater Vancouver 2009 T 2,325,817
15000 Greater Vancouver 2010 T 2,361,833
Source:
Population estimates (1986-2006) and projections (2007-2036) by BC STATS, Service BC, BC Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services.
Release Date:
August 2007
Notes:
Population estimates for 2002 to 2006 have been revised (August 2007) to align with the 2006 Census age/sex population counts. These estimates will be revised further when an estimate of the 2006 net census undercount from Statistics Canada becomes available.
The data sets consist of population estimates (1986-2006) which incorporate information from the 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 Censuses of Canada, and population projections which contain estimates from 1986 to 2006 and projections 2007-2036. Note that one year's estimate will over lap projections for some months when estimates are newly released.
All figures are as of July 1st of the year stated; i.e. data periods (e.g. 1999/2000) are census year (July 1 to June 30).
Total population estimates (1986-2006) are prepared using the Generalized Estimation System (G.E.S.). A Regression Approach, specifically the Difference-Correlation Method (DCM), is the primary method underlying the sub-provincial population estimates. For more information on the G.E.S. methodology and for the Estimation Breakdown System (EBS) age/sex methodology, visit the BC STATS web site at http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/popstart.htm .
Population projections are from P.E.O.P.L.E. Projection 32 (Population Extrapolation for Organizational Planning with Less Error). British Columbia small area population projections result from the application of a "Component/Cohort Survival" population model to area-specific assumptions dealing with fertility, mortality, and migration. For more information on this model, visit the BC STATS web site http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/popstart.htm. Select the Small Area Population Projections .pdf document.
Population projections include assumptions relating to migration, fertility and mortality by small area that are based on past conditions, modified to take into consideration possible future changes. They should be regarded as one possible future scenario and do not necessarily reflect the provincial government's views on population growth in small geographic areas. Due to the statistical instability of areas of small population size, both the population estimates and projections for very small areas should be used with caution.
1986, 1991, 1996, and 2001 figures include estimates of the net census undercount (population that was not counted or overcounted at the time of the Census). 2006 figures use the 2001 estimate of net census undercount, since estimates of the 2006 net census undercount are not yet available.
1986 figures include estimates of the non-permanent residents (those holding student or employment authorizations, Minister's permits, or who are refugee claimants). For 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 the non-permanent residents were counted in the Census.
Data may not always reconcile with data presented in released or future reports. Discrepancies may exist due to ongoing amending and updating of data.
Lower Mainland BC Stats:
2 Mainland/Southwest 2006 T 2,553,311
2 Mainland/Southwest 2007 T 2,595,996
2 Mainland/Southwest 2008 T 2,636,954
2 Mainland/Southwest 2009 T 2,677,991
2 Mainland/Southwest 2010 T 2,719,876
2 Mainland/Southwest 2011 T 2,761,365
Some liturature from BC stats:
Census Figures vs. Population Estimates For more information
contact Dave O'Neil (250) 387-0335
Why do the Census figures differ from the estimates of the population presented in the population pages of this web site?
The objective of every Census is to provide detailed information at a single point in time on the demographic, social and economic conditions of the population. One of its goals is to enumerate the entire population on Census Day. Inevitably, however, some people are not counted, either because their household did not receive a Census questionnaire (for example, a household living in a separate apartment in a house) or because they were not included in the questionnaire completed by the household (for example, a boarder or lodger). Some people may also be missed because they have no usual residence, and did not spend census night in any dwelling. On the other hand, a small number of people may also be counted twice (for example, a student living away from home).
To determine how many individuals were missed, or counted more than once, Statistics Canada conducts post-censal coverage studies of a representative sample of individuals. The results of these studies provide information that is used to adjust the Census counts for the purpose of producing current (quarterly and annual) population estimates, which take into account net under-enumeration in the Census.
For example, in 2001, after adjustment for net under-enumeration, the population estimate for Canada was 2.99% higher than the population enumerated in the Census and the population estimate for British Columbia was 4.04% higher than the Census count. For more information, please see the document How many people were missed in the 2001 Census?.
Currently stats BC has this model for population as of 2007 and onward:
15000 Greater Vancouver 2006 T 2,218,561
15000 Greater Vancouver 2007 T 2,255,373
15000 Greater Vancouver 2008 T 2,290,568
15000 Greater Vancouver 2009 T 2,325,817
15000 Greater Vancouver 2010 T 2,361,833
Source:
Population estimates (1986-2006) and projections (2007-2036) by BC STATS, Service BC, BC Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services.
Release Date:
August 2007
Notes:
Population estimates for 2002 to 2006 have been revised (August 2007) to align with the 2006 Census age/sex population counts. These estimates will be revised further when an estimate of the 2006 net census undercount from Statistics Canada becomes available.
The data sets consist of population estimates (1986-2006) which incorporate information from the 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 Censuses of Canada, and population projections which contain estimates from 1986 to 2006 and projections 2007-2036. Note that one year's estimate will over lap projections for some months when estimates are newly released.
All figures are as of July 1st of the year stated; i.e. data periods (e.g. 1999/2000) are census year (July 1 to June 30).
Total population estimates (1986-2006) are prepared using the Generalized Estimation System (G.E.S.). A Regression Approach, specifically the Difference-Correlation Method (DCM), is the primary method underlying the sub-provincial population estimates. For more information on the G.E.S. methodology and for the Estimation Breakdown System (EBS) age/sex methodology, visit the BC STATS web site at http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/popstart.htm .
Population projections are from P.E.O.P.L.E. Projection 32 (Population Extrapolation for Organizational Planning with Less Error). British Columbia small area population projections result from the application of a "Component/Cohort Survival" population model to area-specific assumptions dealing with fertility, mortality, and migration. For more information on this model, visit the BC STATS web site http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/pop/popstart.htm. Select the Small Area Population Projections .pdf document.
Population projections include assumptions relating to migration, fertility and mortality by small area that are based on past conditions, modified to take into consideration possible future changes. They should be regarded as one possible future scenario and do not necessarily reflect the provincial government's views on population growth in small geographic areas. Due to the statistical instability of areas of small population size, both the population estimates and projections for very small areas should be used with caution.
1986, 1991, 1996, and 2001 figures include estimates of the net census undercount (population that was not counted or overcounted at the time of the Census). 2006 figures use the 2001 estimate of net census undercount, since estimates of the 2006 net census undercount are not yet available.
1986 figures include estimates of the non-permanent residents (those holding student or employment authorizations, Minister's permits, or who are refugee claimants). For 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 the non-permanent residents were counted in the Census.
Data may not always reconcile with data presented in released or future reports. Discrepancies may exist due to ongoing amending and updating of data.
Lower Mainland BC Stats:
2 Mainland/Southwest 2006 T 2,553,311
2 Mainland/Southwest 2007 T 2,595,996
2 Mainland/Southwest 2008 T 2,636,954
2 Mainland/Southwest 2009 T 2,677,991
2 Mainland/Southwest 2010 T 2,719,876
2 Mainland/Southwest 2011 T 2,761,365