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  #141  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2015, 4:20 AM
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Originally Posted by SamInTheLoop View Post
Interesting discussion above on who/what is and isn't machine these days.

It can always devolve into mere definitions and semantics, however I have to same I'm much more with Chicago103.

I still have trouble thinking anyone is arguing in good faith if they are presenting Rahm as any sort of outsider, reformer, or not fully part of the true inner spirit of good 'ole fashioned Chicagaww machine style politics. It just isn't so - at his core, that is not at all what he is about. If you actually believe that, it means he's likely pulled one over on you.

Think about it: If he's brought the machine into his fold, ie 90% or whatever of old fashioned machine politicians support him and work for him, etc - he hasn't changed the machine, and brought it over to his side - rather, he now is the machine (actually though, he never 'left' it)

Pinstripe patronage is still patronage. In an age where many are deluded into thinking corporations and hedge funds are people, and money is speech, those strategies - advancing policies and/or awarding contracts that your benefactors explicitly or implicitly want/expect in exchange for their campaign contributions - is in fact fully "machine". It's not at all about labor causes = machine, corporatism policies = not machine. That's not only a crude analysis, but a wrong one. Rahm is definitely a full-fledged member of the machine. Just because one may like some pro-business policies that he may (or actually may not) have, and one dislikes traditoinal, corrupt Chicagaww machine politics, does not in fact make Rahm not machine. Also, to try to make a case that Karen Lewis is more machine than Rahm is borders on laughable. She is definitely more of a legitimate 'outsider'.......
Exactly, most of what LouisVanDerWright and a few others have said about Rahm I agree with and really no one is questioning in the first place. Of course we know that he uses nationalized campaign tactics, and money, we know very smart people run his campaign and many used to work for Obama, etc. However just because he uses "new" tactics does not mean he doesn't use "old" machine tactics in addition to them, the two are not mutually exclusive.

If anything Rahm is more machine now than four years ago because unlike then with Gery Chico there is no machine candidate alternative so the machine leaders that still exist are either going to endorse Rahm or stay out of the mayor's race altogether.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright View Post
The machine was an organization of these groups to mobilize every last possible voter block by block, house by house, and completely bury any potential competition. Please show me where Rahm's network of block captains, precinct captains, union stooges, etc. is.

.......It was, as I say above, a block by block, house by house, method. Please let me know when someone you know from your block comes to your door and tells you (they don't ask, they tell) to vote for Rahm. Please let me know when your union boss tells you that you won't get out of the union hall for any jobs if you don't vote for Rahm.
I said it before and I can tell you exactly where this is happening. In the 13th Ward (SW side near Midway and Ford City) Alderman Marty Quinn (Mike Madigan protege) is using these very tactics. They put up tons of Rahm Emanuel yard signs in high traffic areas. You can see them on Central Avenue between 59th and 63rd and in other parts of Clearing and West Lawn (just pick up a 13th ward map and see what you find within the boundaries). I know people personally who live in the vicinity of Nathan Hale Park and Elementary School (near 63rd and Narragansett) where people have been going door to door and soliciting people to put up a Rahm Emanuel sign in their yard (asking them to put up a sign, not even asking for their vote) and they try to be quite persuasive about it too from what I was told, "they practically begged me to put it up" is what I was told verbatim. There are also signs up and down Narragansett between 65th and 56th Street (which happens to be the boundary of the 13th ward). I know from other sources that these are people from the 13th ward organization that are doing this solicitation. I really can't tell you any more without breaching personal confidence.

Granted it is 2015 and not 1955 so the machine usually can't be quite as bold with their intimidation as they used to so if someone told these campaign workers to get the hell off their property they probably would but that doesn't mean it isn't a form of high pressure solicitation. You can try and argue semantics all you want but anyone who has worked in the machine in any capacity knows this is a classic machine tactic.

You only see Rahm Emanuel signs like these in the 13th ward, contrast this with the 23rd ward where there are virtually zero Rahm yard signs. I live in the 23rd ward and I have actually walked around with a map and can see the difference as soon as I enter the 13th ward. So it isn't as simple as there is a huge gap of sentiment between the 13th and 23rd, it is because the machine is pushing Rahm in the former but not the latter. In a non-machine campaign you would send out mailers and do door to door knocking but signs only go up when someone calls the office or at the door requests a sign, at most you might put up signs on public right of ways or in front of apartment buildings where there is plausible deniability as to who might have put it there. Door to door moderate to high pressure solicitation in specific electoral districts just to put up a sign without said voter expressing a prior interest in the campaign is a machine tactic. To make some claim that Rahm uses no machine tactics or has no machine infrastructure is not only very naive but demonstrably false, I know that for a fact.
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  #142  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2015, 5:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Chicago103 View Post
Might Rahm avoid a runoff? Sure, of course, but I think some of you are a bit overconfident about it.

http://www.ogdenfry.com/polls/2015Mayoral1.pdf

Poll without an undecided option February 14, 2015:

Rahm Emanuel 49.2%
Chuy Garcia 23.0%
Willie Wilson 14.4%
Bob Fioretti 8.6%
William Walls 4.9%
yep. it'll be close. last time rahm was able to squeeze out a 55% win to avoid a run-off. if he avoids a run-off this time around, i expect the margin to be much thinner. the polls keep putting him right around the 50% mark (well within the margin of error) when undecideds are pushed, so it's impossible to tell from polling if he will do it or not.

if rahm doesn't get to 50% + 1 in the first round, i still expect him to beat garcia in a run-off.

only one week to go!
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  #143  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2015, 8:41 PM
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It's nice to see Fioretti trailing Wilson.
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  #144  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2015, 8:48 PM
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At least the whiteys don't mind him..
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  #145  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2015, 5:33 PM
SamInTheLoop SamInTheLoop is offline
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^



I'm prepared to call it:

Rahm: 51.9%
Chuy: 25.7%
Willie: 13.2%
His Orangeness: 6.4%
Dock: 2.0%
Other/Nonsense/Nobody <1.0%
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  #146  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2015, 6:24 PM
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^^I would love to see 'Nobody' win at least 1% of the vote
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  #147  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2015, 6:28 PM
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Originally Posted by SamInTheLoop View Post
Rahm: 51.9%
Chuy: 25.7%
Willie: 13.2%
His Orangeness: 6.4%
Dock: 2.0%
Other/Nonsense/Nobody <1.0%
"His Orangeness"





what is the source for that poll?
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  #148  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2015, 6:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
"His Orangeness"





what is the source for that poll?
I took that as Sam's prediction. It looks about right to me.
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  #149  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2015, 12:35 AM
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Rauner's budget seems to weigh heavily on Chicago, between cuts to direct aid to cities and the cuts to transit agencies and Amtrak.

Not what I expected out of a pro-business governor - is he also planning to cut IDOT's budget for road maintenance? What about raiding some of the Tollway's rich coffers to cover the state's shortfall? We can't do that, of course, because drivers rely on roads to get to work! While transit riders are degenerates!

Rauner should take an example from Rick Snyder in Michigan and encourage transportation investments of all kinds as a way to encourage that growth he keeps promising. To be fair, Rauner hasn't taken the knuckle-dragging stance of other Republican governors yet, but he keeps edging closer. The indifference displayed toward working-class people and even elites who rely on transit services is disappointing but not surprising for somebody with such privilege.

If these cuts go through, I hope CTA responds by raising fares instead of cutting service. Ventra means that the fares don't need to be a round number - they can increase fares by the 11 or 12 cents they need.
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  #150  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2015, 9:45 AM
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Originally Posted by ardecila View Post
Not what I expected out of a pro-business governor
Agreed. Only the worst type of conservatives still believe that spending cuts alone are the solution. I haven't parsed it that much, but I did see that he isn't proposing any new revenue sources, which is nuts; in the very least, the timing is perfect for a gas tax hike.

I also noticed that fire fighter and police officer unions are exempt from his pension-cutting plans.
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  #151  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2015, 1:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Ch.G, Ch.G View Post
I also noticed that fire fighter and police officer unions are exempt from his pension-cutting plans.
^ It's a "white male demographic" thing. Republicans often seem to not tamper with those particular unions. See Scott Walker a couple of years ago.
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  #152  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2015, 2:03 PM
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Originally Posted by ardecila View Post
Rauner's budget seems to weigh heavily on Chicago, between cuts to direct aid to cities and the cuts to transit agencies and Amtrak.

Not what I expected out of a pro-business governor - is he also planning to cut IDOT's budget for road maintenance? What about raiding some of the Tollway's rich coffers to cover the state's shortfall? We can't do that, of course, because drivers rely on roads to get to work! While transit riders are degenerates!

Rauner should take an example from Rick Snyder in Michigan and encourage transportation investments of all kinds as a way to encourage that growth he keeps promising. To be fair, Rauner hasn't taken the knuckle-dragging stance of other Republican governors yet, but he keeps edging closer. The indifference displayed toward working-class people and even elites who rely on transit services is disappointing but not surprising for somebody with such privilege.

If these cuts go through, I hope CTA responds by raising fares instead of cutting service. Ventra means that the fares don't need to be a round number - they can increase fares by the 11 or 12 cents they need.

Agree. With. Every. Single. Word. Period.
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  #153  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2015, 2:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ch.G, Ch.G View Post
Agreed. Only the worst type of conservatives still believe that spending cuts alone are the solution. I haven't parsed it that much, but I did see that he isn't proposing any new revenue sources, which is nuts; in the very least, the timing is perfect for a gas tax hike.

If this was a serious proposal, it was incredibly naive. Basically, what Rauner asked the Illinois economy to do is to turn around, bend over, say "Please, Mr. Private Equity", and enjoy a good 'brownbacking', full hillbilly-style. It was (and Rauner could very well turn out to be so himself, as a lot of republican businesspeople/investors often are - to the surprise of many simpletons who think that if some dude got himself rich, than his policies for the economy at large must be pro-growth, that running a business is obviously like running a government and devising economic policy, that if you've had some success managing a businesses, than those qualities would apply to leading a government and running an economy - duh!) completely ignorant of how macroeconomics actually works. This was certainly an anti-growth proposal, and also an anti-urban proposal, and also an anti working class/middle class proposal and a lot of supply-side nonsense in general. Significant revenue obviously needs to be part of the equation here. Everybody knows the long term structural pension issue is a major issue and needs to be fixed. This is not the way to get us there, and I don't think gets us there at any rate.

Let's hope this was a wildly right wing opening negotiating position. Otherwise, if this was serious, and an indication of things to come for the next 4 years, I - and many others - will I suspect quickly develop an acute case of voter's remorse......

Postscript: I'd like to see the forum's more Randian-disposed members (you guys know who you are - you're the ones who don't understand how macro works, or what makes for good fiscal, monetary and all other forms of public policy) employ their well-worn pretzel logic to defend what Rauner shitted out into the microphone yesterday......floor is open......
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Last edited by SamInTheLoop; Feb 19, 2015 at 4:36 PM. Reason: PS
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  #154  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2015, 2:20 PM
SamInTheLoop SamInTheLoop is offline
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
"His Orangeness"





what is the source for that poll?

Vlajos is right....wasn't a poll, just my guess for Tuesday's results.....
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  #155  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2015, 3:02 PM
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Well, don't blame me, I voted for Kodos er, Quinn.

Frankly, how did no one expect some shit like this from Rauner?? He's essentially a smarter, wealthier Scott Walker (and that's working out so well for the folks north of the Cheddar curtain).
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  #156  
Old Posted Feb 19, 2015, 4:33 PM
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^ Well, I thought indeed he would certainly be smarter than Walker (WI's economy - eg job growth has indeed stumbed badly - and is far, far short of his projections when arguing for and implementing his anti-growth policies), and also definitely smarter than what we heard yesterday.....
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  #157  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2015, 1:51 AM
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Walker had a track record as a public official before he became governor - voters had no excuse and should not have been surprised by Walker's moves once in Madison.

Rauner on the other hand was a political unknown. Illinois and Wisconsin are very different states politically, there was no reason to suspect that Rauner would be any more of a right-wing ideologue than Chris Christie or Andrew Cuomo (yes he's technically a Dem), who are both pretty moderate by the standards of today's GOP.
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  #158  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2015, 2:00 AM
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Like or dislike Chuy Garcia the first minute and five seconds of this ad is an awesome piece of uplifting Chicago civic patriotism that I have rarely seen in a Chicago mayoral campaign. I only wish this was airing on TV, maybe in a runoff.

Video Link
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  #159  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2015, 5:22 PM
SamInTheLoop SamInTheLoop is offline
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Gov's Budget: Even Diana Rauner Flatly Turns Down Husband's 'Brownbacking'

Good for her. What is it though, that we should be reading into this?

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/artic...s-budget-plans
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  #160  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2015, 8:20 PM
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IL Budget, Mayoral Race.....Gee - Why Don't We Go Ahead and Connect the Two?

So, has Rahm come out and bashed Rauner's budget yet? If so, I can't imagine why not - the politics for it would certainly be overwelming, and with four days to go and closing in on avoiding a run-off Tuesday, he probably should go ahead and do so......
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