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  #261  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2015, 2:24 PM
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more good polling numbers for rahm. this time a tribune poll conducted from march 25-29. MoE is 3.7%.

rahm: 58%
chuy: 30%
undec.: 9%

(i don't know why these percentages don't total 100%, they're just the figures the trib is reporting)

source: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/l...ry.html#page=1


only one week to go until election day. chuy is going to need a massive, monumental shift in the campaign dynamic to have a chance.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Mar 31, 2015 at 3:14 PM.
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  #262  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2015, 7:58 PM
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^ Based on the widening margin, look for Chuy to turn into a pitbull in the next debate
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  #263  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2015, 10:22 PM
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^ well, the 3rd and final debate is tonight on WTTW, this will be chuy's last face to face opportunity to try and turn the tide of the campaign to his favor.
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  #264  
Old Posted Apr 1, 2015, 8:07 PM
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more good numbers for rahm. here's a Chicago Defender/WVON poll of chicago african-americans. 1,003 registered african american voters, conducted 3/25-3/26, MoE 3.2%.

rahm: 46%
chuy: 36%
undec.: 18%

source: http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-...nt-lead-garcia
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  #265  
Old Posted Apr 1, 2015, 8:21 PM
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Yea, based on the last Fox debate I saw Chuy looked aggressive and made Rahm look calm and cool by contrast, lol. I'm sure it was Chuy's strategy to dig into Rahm, but I think it just ended up making Rahm look more calm and he softened his personality alot.
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  #266  
Old Posted Apr 1, 2015, 9:28 PM
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Chuy got nowhere in last night's debate
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  #267  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2015, 3:05 PM
SamInTheLoop SamInTheLoop is offline
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I do think Rahm's pulled away somewhat.....

I'm going with:

Rahm 56.2%
Chuy 43.8%
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  #268  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2015, 4:07 PM
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Two new Ogden & Fry polls from this past weekend. not much has changed since last week.


4/3/15

rahm - 56.6%
chuy - 43.4%



4/4/15

rahm - 51.3%
chuy - 33.0%
undec. - 15.6%




tomorrow we vote!
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  #269  
Old Posted Apr 7, 2015, 5:16 PM
SamInTheLoop SamInTheLoop is offline
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In addition to my prediction on results, above, here's where I am as for total turnout:

593,524
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  #270  
Old Posted Apr 7, 2015, 6:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SamInTheLoop View Post
In addition to my prediction on results, above, here's where I am as for total turnout:

593,524
^ You're way off, more like

593,579
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  #271  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2015, 1:28 AM
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Crains is calling the election for Emanuel.

Still too early to tell for some of the key aldermanic races. Hopkins has a lead in the 2nd but I really hope Pattison can pull it out. Michele Smith is winning in the 43rd, but barely.
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  #272  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2015, 2:03 AM
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The Tribune is reporting that Chuy has conceded defeat to Emanuel.

As of 9pm CST, Emanuel leads Chuy, 55.6% to 44.4% with 86.4% of precincts reporting.
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  #273  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2015, 2:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ardecila View Post
Crains is calling the election for Emanuel.

Still too early to tell for some of the key aldermanic races. Hopkins has a lead in the 2nd but I really hope Pattison can pull it out. Michele Smith is winning in the 43rd, but barely.
Does Crains have a % for Rahm yet?



A link would be nice but I can look it up. I am just thinking about those that do not find the link easily



The last election Rahm got 75% of the loop. this poll says greater than 85% in this run off. Even Chicago republicans came out for Rahm.











http://www.chicagobusiness.com/artic...-term-as-mayor


April 07, 2015


Emanuel wins new term as mayor


The race for mayor is over.

With more than two-thirds of the vote in, Mayor Rahm Emanuel holds a commanding lead over challenger Jesus “Chuy” Garcia,




and there's no indication it's going to be close.




Detailed ward by ward totals were still coming in, but it appears that Emanuel won just about everywhere except heavily Hispanic wards.


For instance, Emanuel is winning the downtown 42nd Ward with a whopping 85 percent of the vote.

With 1,787 out of 2,069 precincts reporting, or more than 86 percent:







RAHM EMANUEL 275,718 55.58%
CHUY GARCIA 220,355 44.42%




Garcia, a Cook County Commissioner, has conceded the election, according to news media reports.
...
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  #274  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2015, 5:13 AM
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I hate the association some are making between Garcia and Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Not in the same league IMO. Does a disservice to Warren and Sanders.
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  #275  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2015, 3:21 PM
SamInTheLoop SamInTheLoop is offline
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^ With you 1,000%.......the news media can be very analytically challenged and lazy at times .......most of the time (and I don't consider Fox News to be news media, btw)
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  #276  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2015, 3:24 PM
SamInTheLoop SamInTheLoop is offline
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Not just Rahm that had a good night........take a look at good 'ole Sammy Boy.

Rahm finishing up with abound 0.5 pct pts less than my prediction, and I was only about maybe 23,000-25,000 or so heavy on turnout (I think my weather adjustments were a little off, and this also impacted my vote results slightly too).......I'll take it.....
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  #277  
Old Posted Apr 8, 2015, 3:33 PM
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Ogden & Fry also come out looking pretty good with their polling.



final O & G poll on 4/3/15:

rahm - 56.6%
chuy - 43.4%



actual election results with 99% of precincts reporting:

rahm - 55.7%
chuy - 44.3%



i'll be sure to put more stock in their polling in the future. they're polling was saying that this race wasn't nearly as close as some in the media desperately wanted, and their polling was more or less dead on.
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  #278  
Old Posted Apr 9, 2015, 12:37 AM
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Good job Chicago. Nice to see it was not even close.
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  #279  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2015, 5:01 PM
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So, I'd just like to state that I'm not sure if they're now 100% final, but as of today, the vote stands at:

Rahm: 56.19%
Chuy: 43.81%

Total Election Turnout: 588,557
Total Mayoral Race Votes Cast: 586,802


But who's counting?
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  #280  
Old Posted Dec 31, 2015, 9:17 PM
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Pretty good read..and depressing. Rahm is done. Don't really know where Chicago goes from here, politically. I think his exit is a lot sooner than many of us might expect.

The Sudden But Well-Deserved Fall of Rahm Emanuel
By Rick Perlstein

http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-...f-rahm-emanuel

Here is the poll Perlstein references regarding how many Chicagoans think Rahm should resign:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/292630702/Emanuel-Poll
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