2018 Population Estimate of US Metropolitan Areas

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by ungerdog

I moved to metro Phoenix 4 years ago from Fremont, CA (near San Jose). I'm from Chicago but have lived in Kentucky, Maryland, Virginia, Texas and California.

Fortunately, I got a job in Cybersecurity where I could work from anywhere, but I had to be out west. I was living in Fremont and created a spreadsheet of western cities. I had Sacramento, Seattle, Portland, Boise, Denver, Las Vegas and Phoenix on the list. I put categories that I care about on the spreadsheet... overall tax burden, cost of housing, how new is the housing, things to do (pro sports/college sports/concerts/festivals/hiking/etc), how bad is the traffic, can I trust the local government to not try and micromanage my life and finally how many direct flight options are there out of the airport.

I ranked each city from 1 to 7 on the list in each category and ranked the categories themselves from 1 to 7 in terms of personal importance. After EXTENSIVE research on each of these topics, I added the scores. Phoenix won, but Boise was a close second. Four years later and I don't regret the decision at all. It is the one place in the country I have lived and said "I don't want to leave."

In the 4 years that I have been in the southeast valley, I have seen a lot of things constructed due to the incoming Californians and Illinoisans. An overnight city is being created here and it is no surprise why. A wasteland? Hardly. The only trouble is that the incoming people may change some of the very things that made me arrive.. we'll see.

Why dont you post in the PHX forums brah????

[llamaorama]

The only trouble is that the incoming people may change some of the very things that made me arrive.. we'll see.

So the newcomers are ruining the place by voting to widen roads, adequately fund schools, maybe build public parks and libraries?

Oh the horror!

You would do well in Houston. We are proud of our third-world neighborhoods because at least the people out by the Grand Parkway can afford their blue-dyed fake lakes between their 4,000 square foot houses.

[JManc]

How about don't relocate to Phoenix from Cleveland because you think it's pretty and you like the desert climate and then grow a lawn.

[ungerdog]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

So the newcomers are ruining the place by voting to widen roads, adequately fund schools, maybe build public parks and libraries?

Oh the horror!

You would do well in Houston. We are proud of our third-world neighborhoods because at least the people out by the Grand Parkway can afford their blue-dyed fake lakes between their 4,000 square foot houses.

I always love a good mischaracterization of the issue. Awesome examples you shared, sadly, they fail to make a valid point.

Listen buddy, we can get into a socialism vs capitalism argument all day long. I would LOVE it. However, this thread isn't the place. Start one somewhere and send me an invitation. People are moving with their wallet to places that generally don't hammer them from a tax perspective. People are leaving Illinois due to the state’s poor public policies.

You would do well in Illinois. They love the burden that the government hammers down on its own citizens... well, the ones that stayed.

All I'm asking is that Arizona not change from what made it attractive.. the horror!

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

That topography you're thinking of resembles land and geographical features that are closer to Colorado than Phoenix. A lot of it reminds me of the high desert areas of Monument Valley and maybe Bryce or Zion.

The low desert - Sonoran has more vegetation, less dramatic cliffs and almost zero red rocks.

I find Phoenix, especially the topography, to be beautiful. Mountains all around and some right in the city. The freeways are landscaped and kept clean of litter, unlike the rest of the country (or so it seems). South Phoenix is an eyesore, but a lot of the rest of it is very appealing to me. I like Tucson even more.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

So the newcomers are ruining the place by voting to widen roads, adequately fund schools, maybe build public parks and libraries?

Oh the horror!

That is nothing like our local political battles, there is no shortage of parks no efforts to prevent parks and libraries, We just had a whole thing about increasing school spending (not that spending per pupil has an correlation with performance) you might have seen #redfored in the news. and if anything we are shrinking our roads not widening them.

Why do people just assume they know what is going on with places when they so obviously do not?

[Tom In Chicago]

Originally Posted by ungerdog

People are leaving Illinois due to the state’s poor public policies.

No they're not. . . they're moving because the winters are cold and they have the means to go where it's warm. . . when pressed on the issue everything becomes politicized. . . it just doesn't make the underlying reasons matter of fact. . .

. . .

[edale]

Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago

No they're not. . . they're moving because the winters are cold and they have the means to go where it's warm. . . when pressed on the issue everything becomes politicized. . . it just doesn't make the underlying reasons matter of fact. . .

. . .

I assumed you were joking the first time you said the cold weather thing. How do you reconcile the growth of the Twin Cities, Columbus, Boston, NYC, DC, etc. if weather is really the determining factor. All of those cities have cold winters...

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by edale

I assumed you were joking the first time you said the cold weather thing. How do you reconcile the growth of the Twin Cities, Columbus, Boston, NYC, DC, etc. if weather is really the determining factor. All of those cities have cold winters...

FWIW, I don't think the cities that I bolded would be growing without foreign migration. But many Sun Belt cities also wouldn't be growing as fast as they are without foreign migrants.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago

No they're not. . . they're moving because the winters are cold and they have the means to go where it's warm. . . when pressed on the issue everything becomes politicized. . . it just doesn't make the underlying reasons matter of fact. . .

. . .

A lot of Illinois people complain about property tax. People dont like to pay rent to the state for their homes.

[ungerdog]

Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago

No they're not. . . they're moving because the winters are cold and they have the means to go where it's warm. . . when pressed on the issue everything becomes politicized. . . it just doesn't make the underlying reasons matter of fact. . .

. . .

I could not disagree with this more. The weather does play a role, but taxes are a major reason, probably the biggest. I live here and talk to the fellow Illinoisans that show up. We have forums where former Illinoisans meet up online and discuss everything from why they came here to where they can find their favorite Chicago foods in the Valley.

This is the response from one guy who was answering a question from a current Chicagoan who is thinking about moving to Arizona. I can find hundreds if not thousands of posts on that forum that echo the same thing. This idea that people are ditching Illinois simply because they decided it is too chilly and had a couple of bucks in their pocket is looking at the situation with blinders on. Illinois is a public policy disaster and just about everyone knows it.

"We live in the #1 growing County in the entire country.
I moved from the #1 most moved out of county in the entire country.
My property taxes went from $14k per year to $2800 per year. It’s not about popularity. It’s about throwing your hard earned money down the drain, flushed into corrupt politicians pockets. I just couldn’t stomach that anymore.
Not that taxes were the only factor... but they definitely played a big role."


Here is another response...

"If I loved it 100% I would maybe justify it but the roads are falling apart, the traffic is awful, there is insane crime, the politicians are corrupt and the weather is bitter.
I realized when my kids spent 8 straight months inside staring at a screen or at an indoor bounce place that it was not ok for suitable human life.
Even here at 113 degrees we are still outdoors because we are swimming.
So in a nutshell, if I payed 14k in taxes to live the lap of luxury than yes.... maybe that would make sense.
However No boxes are checked for all our hard earned money spent. At the end of the day “in Chicago... you don’t get what ya pay for”
The only thing missing is good Italian beef, real gyros and take out Chinese and that’s not worth 14k."

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by ungerdog

I could not disagree with this more. The weather does play a role, but taxes are a major reason, probably the biggest. I live here and talk to the fellow Illinoisans that show up. We have forums where former Illinoisans meet up online and discuss everything from why they came here to where they can find their favorite Chicago foods in the Valley.

This is the response from one guy who was answering a question from a current Chicagoan who is thinking about moving to Arizona. I can find hundreds if not thousands of posts on that forum that echo the same thing. This idea that people are ditching Illinois simply because they decided it is too chilly and had a couple of bucks in their pocket is looking at the situation with blinders on. Illinois is a public policy disaster and just about everyone knows it.

"We live in the #1 growing County in the entire country.
I moved from the #1 most moved out of county in the entire country.
My property taxes went from $14k per year to $2800 per year. It’s not about popularity. It’s about throwing your hard earned money down the drain, flushed into corrupt politicians pockets. I just couldn’t stomach that anymore.
Not that taxes were the only factor... but they definitely played a big role."


Here is another response...

"If I loved it 100% I would maybe justify it but the roads are falling apart, the traffic is awful, there is insane crime, the politicians are corrupt and the weather is bitter.
I realized when my kids spent 8 straight months inside staring at a screen or at an indoor bounce place that it was not ok for suitable human life.
Even here at 113 degrees we are still outdoors because we are swimming.
So in a nutshell, if I payed 14k in taxes to live the lap of luxury than yes.... maybe that would make sense.
However No boxes are checked for all our hard earned money spent. At the end of the day “in Chicago... you don’t get what ya pay for”
The only thing missing is good Italian beef, real gyros and take out Chinese and that’s not worth 14k."

The cost of living in Illinois or Arizona isn’t radically different. According to this source, Illinois is actually more affordable than Arizona.

Illinois has a large outflow of black families and white retirees. The state of Illinois actually has lower rates of outmigration than most states. Illinois’ problem isn’t that too many people leave, it’s that too few people come.

https://budgetblog.ctbaonline.org/wh...o-55779062e9ea

https://budgetblog.ctbaonline.org/il...medium=ios_app

Just to be clear, domestic migration data suggests that people born in Illinois are actually less likely to move out of state than the national average. Even then, residents who do leave tend to relocate to higher tax states. The population is flat or shrinking modestly because of perception issues (crime, taxes, weather, etc.). If Chicago/Illinois didn’t have such large outflows of black families, the city and state would in fact be growing. From everything I’ve seen, all demographics except black Americans have grown since 2010.

[the urban politician]

^ While I agree with what you are saying, and yes perhaps the overall tax burden in Illinois is exaggerated, one thing is for sure: it has gone up pretty quickly.

Property tax rates are rising fast, and other taxes and fees are being loaded onto the wagon. Plus you've got a bump in the State income tax that the Governor is trying to convert into a progressive tax if he gets his way.

Add to that the pension disaster that will almost certainly add much more to the tax burden.

All of that points to the fact the the issue is acute and real. The people moving to AZ in droves aren't totally full of it.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

The cost of living in Illinois or Arizona isn’t radically different. According to this source, Illinois is actually more affordable than Arizona.

Illinois has a large outflow of black families and white retirees. The state of Illinois actually has lower rates of outmigration than most states. Illinois’ problem isn’t that too many people leave, it’s that too few people come.

https://budgetblog.ctbaonline.org/wh...o-55779062e9ea

https://budgetblog.ctbaonline.org/il...medium=ios_app

Just to be clear, domestic migration data suggests that people born in Illinois are actually less likely to move out of state than the national average. Even then, residents who do leave tend to relocate to higher tax states. The population is flat or shrinking modestly because of perception issues (crime, taxes, weather, etc.). If Chicago/Illinois didn’t have such large outflows of black families, the city and state would in fact be growing. From everything I’ve seen, all demographics except black Americans have grown since 2010.

The Cost in general in Illinois is slightly lower and only recently housing in AZ has appreciated beyond Illinois but the tax burden counteracts that.

Still looking at statewide numbers moderates the reality that we are generally talking about people from Chicago-land and Rockford specifically and not the state as a whole.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by Obadno

The Cost in general in Illinois is slightly lower and only recently housing in AZ has appreciated beyond Illinois but the tax burden counteracts that.

Still looking at statewide numbers moderates the reality that we are generally talking about people from Chicago-land and Rockford specifically and not the state as a whole.

The Chicago region is 70%+ of Illinois’ population. Metro Phoenix makes up an identical share of Arizona’s population. Neither is being more or less influenced by its largest metro area. I’ll add that median incomes in Illinois are ~$7k higher. If we’re being honest, it’s a wash and could swing either way depending your lifestyle.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

The Chicago region is 70%+ of Illinois’ population. Metro Phoenix makes up an identical share of Arizona’s population. Neither is being more or less influenced by its largest metro area. I’ll add that median incomes in Illinois are ~$7k higher. If we’re being honest, it’s a wash and could swing either way depending your lifestyle.

You must not be great at math 30% would change every statistic significantly.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by Obadno

You must not be great at math 30% would change every statistic significantly.

Why only for Illinois and not Arizona?

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Why only for Illinois and not Arizona?

It does. The property taxes in Chicago area counties adds a huge cash-flow issue for home buyers in Illinois. Even though a House in Goodyear and Shaumberg might be similarly priced, in Illinois that house is an additional 1000+ a month.

That is well more than enough to knock people out of the ability to purchase an average house in Illinois, when the same house in Arizona only costs them ~$100 in taxes.

[JAYNYC]

Originally Posted by edale

I assumed you were joking the first time you said the cold weather thing. How do you reconcile the growth of the Twin Cities, Columbus, Boston, NYC, DC, etc. if weather is really the determining factor. All of those cities have cold winters...

For some odd reason, he's super hung up on the cold weather x Chicago mass exodus narrative. A narrative that has exactly zero validity, otherwise a similar mass exodus would be occurring in major metros all over the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Don't get me wrong, people are leaving cities in those regions, too, but nowhere near at the rate they're fleeing Chicago. Cold weather isn't the exclusive factor for their departures.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by JAYNYC

For some odd reason, he's super hung up on the cold weather x Chicago mass exodus narrative. A narrative that has exactly zero validity, otherwise a similar mass exodus would be occurring in major metros all over the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Don't get me wrong, people are leaving cities in those regions, too, but nowhere near at the rate they're fleeing Chicago. Cold weather isn't the exclusive factor for their departures.

These trends of high growth in Sunbelt and slow in much of the East and Midwest have been going on for decades now, not just 2010-2018. The big coastal cities have had a large outflow for decades, and Chicago has maybe held its own, but that was offset by a significant inflow of immigrants, notably Hispanics in Chicago's case. I think that inflow of immigrants has decreased so it cannot offset the outmigration trends. It seems that other smaller cities like Columbus, Nashville, Minneapolis are attracting more immigrants, along with the cheaper inland cities already booming like Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta. Minneapolis and Columbus have the two of the largest Somolian populations in the country and Nashville has the largest Kurdish community in the US according to Wiki. Who would have thought those cities would attract such foreign communities?