Who did you vote for?

[TorontoDrew]

Originally Posted by JakeLRS

I have a feeling these polls are going to be off by quite a bit... again...

NDP will have more than the suggested ~35. I'm eying somewhere close to 60-80 (call me crazy eh?), they've had such a good campaign and they absolutely got a ton of support from millennials (IF they show up to vote this time around).

PPC will get more than 1 seat.
Greens will get 2-4.

Well we will find out tonight. No matter what though it's going to be a Liberal Government. Whether they're able to maintain the most seats or get propped up by the NDP.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by jigglysquishy

PPC getting more than 1 seat is the boldest prediction of the day. Are they polling over 10% in any riding besides Beauce?

I'd guess Nipissing-Timiskaming might go more than 10% PPC, simply because the candidate (Mark King) is a fairly well known city councilor who was spurned by the Conservatives for some reason.

Which means that the Liberals will take the riding easily as the Conservatives and PPC split the vote.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by wave46

I'd guess Nipissing-Timiskaming might go more than 10% PPC, simply because the candidate (Mark King) is a fairly well known city councilor who was spurned by the Conservatives for some reason.

Which means that the Liberals will take the riding easily as the Conservatives and PPC split the vote.

Etobicoke North might be another one like that thanks to Mrs. Rob Ford.

[JakeLRS]

Originally Posted by jigglysquishy

PPC getting more than 1 seat is the boldest prediction of the day. Are they polling over 10% in any riding besides Beauce?

I have a feeling there is a "silent" population of voters that will jump onto PPC.

Would be funny to see the PPC and Conservatives split votes in several ridings with Liberals or NDP winning because of a split in a conservative vote.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

According to 338canada.com the liberals have a pretty good lead now since the 18th of October. Still a minority but a 59>2% chance of winning over the cons 40.2% Is that beacuse of how he answered about the negative social media campaign he ran?

I don't know what happens at 338. That brief mix up Oct 12-18th didn't seem to reflect any reality I was aware of.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by CityTech

MPs have to serve for 6 years before they are eligible for a pension (and they still have to wait until they reach pensionable age to collect). This means you have to be re-elected to get the pension.

Hey don't let reality get in the way of a good "I hate the government" rant.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by JakeLRS

I have a feeling there is a "silent" population of voters that will jump onto PPC.

Would be funny to see the PPC and Conservatives split votes in several ridings with Liberals or NDP winning because of a split in a conservative vote.

If that's true it could be disastrous for the CPC. They could be below their current 99 seats.

But I don't think so... PPC will be done after this election.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

But I don't think so... PPC will be done after this election.

I've got a vague feeling that the rightwing populist backlash, never much of a force in Canada to begin with, is cresting and may peter out soon.

We're always late to the game with global trends.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by rousseau

I've got a vague feeling that the rightwing populist backlash, never much of a force in Canada to begin with, is cresting and may peter out soon.

We're always late to the game with global trends.

It's always a matter of timing. Our 2015 election was just a bit too soon. Rob Ford still Rob Forded his way in though.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Hey don't let reality get in the way of a good "I hate the government" rant.

Nah, I'm just amused by it, is all. Good for them and I completely acknowledge the fluke of it.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by JakeLRS

I have a feeling there is a "silent" population of voters that will jump onto PPC.

Would be funny to see the PPC and Conservatives split votes in several ridings with Liberals or NDP winning because of a split in a conservative vote.

It'll be the 1990s all over again!

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by rousseau

I've got a vague feeling that the rightwing populist backlash, never much of a force in Canada to begin with, is cresting and may peter out soon.

We're always late to the game with global trends.

Dunno, see my post here:
http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/show...postcount=4621

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by rousseau

I've got a vague feeling that the rightwing populist backlash, never much of a force in Canada to begin with, is cresting and may peter out soon.

We're always late to the game with global trends.

I think there is a lot of wishful thinking in the notion that the right-wing populist backlash in the western world has peaked and is beginning its inevitable decline.

That said, Canada may still escape the worst of it, for a variety of reasons.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think there is a lot of wishful thinking in the notion that the right-wing populist backlash in the western world has peaked and is beginning its inevitable decline.

That said, Canada may still escape the worst of it, for a variety of reasons.

Just think how close we were to it breaking the other way with President Sanders.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think there is a lot of wishful thinking in the notion that the right-wing populist backlash in the western world has peaked and is beginning its inevitable decline.

That said, Canada may still escape the worst of it, for a variety of reasons.

Populism may not be dead, but hopefully the buffoonish demagogue caracatures currently leading the movement in the West soon will be.

[jigglysquishy]

Far right populism will always have larger potential in Europe . They're a generation removed from being ethno states. Half of Europe still are ethno states. The Americas have beeb defined by immigration since the 16th century. Europe, since 1970.

AfD is more anti immigrant than the PPC and recieved 20% of the vote the last election. Amongst ethnic Germans that number is closer to 33%. Le Pene won the ethnic French vote the last election.

The PPC won't hit 5%. And they're tamer than most of the right wing populist European parties.

Scheer is closer to Biden than Trump.

[ssiguy]

Gladly voted Liberal this time but still with less enthusiasm than the last less to do with SNC and more to do with FPTP. My riding of Cloverdale-Langley is a real toss up and they have had a couple debates but the Tory candidate hasn't even bothered to show up at either one.

As it now seems apparent the Liberals will win, I think it won't be as close as some think. In close ridings many NDP & Greens will go ABC to stop a Tory government and make sure their city/region is represented at the Cabinet table which always brings far more influence and a lot more federal slush fund money.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by jigglysquishy

Far right populism will always have larger potential in Europe . They're a generation removed from being ethno states. Half of Europe still are ethno states. The Americas have beeb defined by immigration since the 16th century. Europe, since 1970.

AfD is more anti immigrant than the PPC and recieved 20% of the vote the last election. Amongst ethnic Germans that number is closer to 33%. Le Pene won the ethnic French vote the last election.

The PPC won't hit 5%. And they're tamer than most of the right wing populist European parties.

Scheer is closer to Biden than Trump.

I think the far right populist parties in Europe have peaked simply because the mainstream parties have become significantly less pro-immigration and pro-multiculturalism as a response.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Just think how close we were to it breaking the other way with President Sanders.

I thought that too for a long time but now my view is that it may simply have been postponing the inevitable.

France dodged the bullet by electing Macron but my sense is that the Le Pen crowd (whether it's Le Pen or someone else) will take power at some point in the not too distant future.

CityTech has made a good point that a lot of mainstream European parties have averted a right-wing populist political takeover of their countries by adopting milquetoast (right term?) versions of some of these guys' policies that seem to resonate the most with people.

It's a really tough balancing act to maintain because most any Western European party that's been in power over the past 20 years or more has had to toe the globalist, pro-diversity line because that's what the powerful interests want.

They can't go too far in the direction of the populists because "the power" (read = $$$) will abandon them.

And of course they're getting squeezed on the other side as well.

[jigglysquishy]

Originally Posted by CityTech

I think the far right populist parties in Europe have peaked simply because the mainstream parties have become significantly less pro-immigration and pro-multiculturalism as a response.

There's still a sizable portion of the population (as much as 10%) that seeks expulsion of ethnic minorities in Europe. The far right parties will always host these people.

Recessions tend to push voters to extremist parties. There's an almost 100% chance of a recession in the western world in the next 5 years. We could see a far right push in Europe in the near future.

I think Canada (and Australia/NZ ) are immune from the worst of it. We simply don't have the nativist history. France has a native language, culture, political system, deep history, and religion. There are 1000 years of French history defined by the ethnic French. Canada is born out of colonialism and immigration. It's apples and oranges