Atlanta Beltline

[stepover]

Originally Posted by montydawg

In the end, these technologies are risky for a city of Atlanta to implement on a large scale. How long will these transit vehicles last? What is the cost per mile? What repair costs will these vehicles incur over time? Will the manufacturer be around in 10 years to supply spare parts?

With so much tech involved in these vehicles, it is likely technology will be vastly different in 10 years, and I am not seeing these autonomous vehicles having the 25-40 year service live that transit agencies are currently getting out of vehicles. There are also a lot of mechanics involved to move around 10 or fewer people per vehicle. That means you will have 5 sets of motors/batteries/complicated electronics to move around the same number of people as one streetcar. That is a lot more to break and repair over the lifespan of the vehicle.

I believe when they run the numbers, the cost per mile and metrics on repair costs will be much lower on a high capacity transit vehicle than these devices which are essentially glorified minivans. I don’t want to think about the safety concerns for pedestrians with these vehicles either.

While the streetcar is very capital intensive initially, it is a very long term investment

Good point! Let's see them run the numbers, I could basically ask almost identical questions for Beltline rail. Let's see the numbers and pros/cons of multiple options before dropping $1 billion plus into a legacy technology that won't be fully delivered in less than 10 years.

BTW, if anyone has ever done Risk Assessments - cost is a major factor in making decisions on risk. So without running the numbers you can't just guess the level of risk to the city.

[Martinman]

My one contribution to the discussion is from a FAQ regarding Beltline transit for every time someone asks the "why" question for the zillionth time as if someone just woke up on a Tuesday and decided there would be rail on the Beltline.

Several studies have been commissioned to look at the best possible transit options throughout the two decades of BeltLine planning. Early studies prior to 2005 looked at a variety of transit types including heavy rail, light rail, local bus, bus rapid transit and even maglev (magnetic levitation). In 2007, MARTA performed an “alternatives analysis” that looked at other transit types (including buses and bus rapid transit) and determined that light rail was the preferred transit based on projected ridership and infrastructure permanence. In 2012, the Federal Transit Administration performed an “Environmental Impact Statement” that studied alternatives and again validated light rail as the preferred transit type. In 2018-2019, Atlanta BeltLine Inc. commissioned an additional study (Transit Task Force Study) that looked at both rail and bus options - again concurring with light rail as the preferred transit type.

[Julien]

Originally Posted by shivtim

Y'all are describing private transit for rich people.

Rich people????? Scooters cost about $1 unlock fee and about 15¢ a minute to operate. So a 15 to 20 minute ride is about a MARTA ticket.

For robotaxies it is still early but right now In Phoenix a Waymo is about 10% cheeper than Uber and there is NO tipping or people to deal with.

Once Tesla, Waymo and then others get into robotaxi competition the price will go down. Also we will start seeing "buses/vans/Pods" type group/shared/assorted people robotaxies that run mapped routes with pre determined "bus" stops and would be very inexpensive. No driver to pay and lower operating costs (energy and maintenance).

OT: An interesting YouTube video made by a software engineer about Tesla robotaxi plans. He does a lot of high quality FSD drives videos normally. He uses some of his stock FSD drives in the background (speed up for this video). The bottom shows what is on the car's screen and the steering wheel in the lower right is Blue FSD and Gray human driving.

Also anyone who wants to experience it in action can arrange a meeting with me in Atlantic Station and I will let FSD drive you around the city to blow your mind.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsBW_3cWVX0

[stepover]

Originally Posted by Julien

Rich people????? Scooters cost about $1 unlock fee and about 15¢ a minute to operate. So a 15 to 20 minute ride is about a MARTA ticket.

For robotaxies it is still early but right now In Phoenix a Waymo is about 10% cheeper than Uber and there is NO tipping or people to deal with.

Once Tesla, Waymo and then others get into robotaxi competition the price will go down. Also we will start seeing "buses/vans/Pods" type group/shared/assorted people robotaxies that run mapped routes with pre determined "bus" stops and would be very inexpensive. No driver to pay and lower operating costs (energy and maintenance).

OT: An interesting YouTube video made by a software engineer about Tesla robotaxi plans. He does a lot of high quality FSD drives videos normally. He uses some of his stock FSD drives in the background (speed up for this video). The bottom shows what is on the car's screen and the steering wheel in the lower right is Blue FSD and Gray human driving.

Also anyone who wants to experience it in action can arrange a meeting with me in Atlantic Station and I will let FSD drive you around the city to blow your mind.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsBW_3cWVX0

I've had Tesla FSD since 2018, it was great on the highway. Once v12 came out it's amazing how well it works on city streets. Driving on a dedicated/specially designed track is enormously easier to pull off then city streets. I guess as more people encounter this they'll better understand the benefits and advancements. Until then I guess a lot of people still see it as science fiction based on this thread.

[cabasse]

people complain about the possibility of a streetcar ruining the "vibe" of the beltline.





a concrete path for the occasional goofy looking autonomous pod is not going to look better than this. (not to mention they aren't going to be running in the beltline ROW for the full length as planned, there will be some portions street running)

autonomous trains (DLR, vancouver skytrain etc) i'm all for. autonomous cars are a pipedream and forever "a couple of years" away. it's been that way ever since tesla announced FSD in 2016

i'd be interested to see a poll of the age of those who support trams on the beltline versus those who are putting their weight behind autonomous pod vaporware.

[Username123]

[QUOTE=Julien;10192719Just imagine how much it would cost to cover all 33 miles of the Beltlne.[/QUOTE]

But it’s 22 miles, right?

[Julien]

Originally Posted by cabasse

people complain about the possibility of a streetcar ruining the "vibe" of the beltline.


....

...autonomous cars are a pipedream and forever "a couple of years" away. it's been that way ever since tesla announced FSD in 2016

i'd be interested to see a poll of the age of those who support trams on the beltline versus those who are putting their weight behind autonomous pod vaporware.

Don't think anyone said it would ruin the vibe. By far the BEST thing is to just complete The Beltline as is. FORGET Streetcars, EV Pods or any other mode. The Beltline is about recreation and NOT transportation. A Streetcar on The Beltline will just be mostly to completely empty for the reasons I have stated already. If anything just add segregated bike/scooter/skate board lanes and it will be a treasure.

Also autonomous robotaxis are not a "pipe dream" and are in operation in 3 US cities today and coming to ATL soon. Also as stated I can drive through/around Midtown, Downtown, GA Tech and West Side without ever having to do a thing in my car.

Here is a paid Waymo ride in Phoenix as proof and a Tesla FSD drive in San Francisco without intervention:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLOxEkcjAVo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43Lrrhn0CMk&t=876s

[montydawg]

Originally Posted by stepover

Good point! Let's see them run the numbers, I could basically ask almost identical questions for Beltline rail. Let's see the numbers and pros/cons of multiple options before dropping $1 billion plus into a legacy technology that won't be fully delivered in less than 10 years.

BTW, if anyone has ever done Risk Assessments - cost is a major factor in making decisions on risk. So without running the numbers you can't just guess the level of risk to the city.

The numbers for streetcar are all laid out in the studies they have done for the streetcar extension. There are several transit agencies in the USA with 50+ years of history to get real world numbers from to get reasonable estimates. They don’t have any comparable numbers for these emerging and unproven technologies.

[stepover]

Originally Posted by cabasse

people complain about the possibility of a streetcar ruining the "vibe" of the beltline.





a concrete path for the occasional goofy looking autonomous pod is not going to look better than this. (not to mention they aren't going to be running in the beltline ROW for the full length as planned, there will be some portions street running)

autonomous trains (DLR, vancouver skytrain etc) i'm all for. autonomous cars are a pipedream and forever "a couple of years" away. it's been that way ever since tesla announced FSD in 2016

i'd be interested to see a poll of the age of those who support trams on the beltline versus those who are putting their weight behind autonomous pod vaporware.

A poll of people that have personal or professional experience in AI/ML/Computer Vision/Image recognition would be a more valuable poll for this discussion in my opinion. Given this is an old school message board I'm guessing most people on here are north of 40. I did a project 5 years ago in medical image ML analytics that took 2 months to analyze the images, the same project could be done in a day today. The biggest limiting factor in AI/ML autonomous systems is more/cheaper GPU to process the training data images then anything else. Most of these algorithms/mathematics have been around for decades, it's really the processing power available now that revolutionizing the field.

Anyone that deals in absolutes about AI or autonomous systems does not understand what's happening today. You also don't seem to understand the difference between level 5 city driving (much more complex problem) and geofenced or controlled pathways designed for autonomous vehicles. Geofencing has basically been solved, as in an autonomous vehicle is safer than a human driver.

Anyways, I'm not sure the point of discussing this more. My opinion is I'm closer to what Beltline transit will look like then others expecting Rail but, I guess we'll see in 5 years who's guess is closer.

[stepover]

Originally Posted by montydawg

The numbers for streetcar are all laid out in the studies they have done for the streetcar extension. There are several transit agencies in the USA with 50+ years of history to get real world numbers from to get reasonable estimates. They don’t have any comparable numbers for these emerging and unproven technologies.

Genuine question what is the published 2024 cost for implementing Rail around the entire 22 mile Beltline? What is the cost for maintenance/service/labor?

[cabasse]

Originally Posted by stepover

A poll of people that have personal or professional experience in AI/ML/Computer Vision/Image recognition would be a more valuable poll for this discussion in my opinion. Given this is an old school message board I'm guessing most people on here are north of 40. I did a project 5 years ago in medical image ML analytics that took 2 months to analyze the images, the same project could be done in a day today. The biggest limiting factor in AI/ML autonomous systems is more/cheaper GPU to process the training data images then anything else. Most of these algorithms/mathematics have been around for decades, it's really the processing power available now that revolutionizing the field.

i'm a software developer myself. i've never trained any AI models before, but i have implemented tesseract in one project. (OCR automation for parsing faxes) i try to follow AI trends pretty closely since my job will assumably be changing quite a lot in the next few years. (though i know a lot of these models were trained via stackoverflow and reddit posts with varying degrees of accuracy and relevance to current versions) AI is advancing at a terrifying rate, but there's still so much testing to do.

there's also this: https://vimeo.com/932562717/5fb3189771 (this is the latest version of FSD!)

Anyone that deals in absolutes about AI or autonomous systems does not understand what's happening today. You also don't seem to understand the difference between level 5 city driving (much more complex problem) and geofenced or controlled pathways designed for autonomous vehicles. Geofencing has basically been solved, as in an autonomous vehicle is safer than a human driver.

i called that out earlier. the plan as currently designed has a significant portion of the route street running, between the beltline and where it is will connect with the current tram downtown.

Anyways, I'm not sure the point of discussing this more. My opinion is I'm closer to what Beltline transit will look like then others expecting Rail but, I guess we'll see in 5 years who's guess is closer.

agree to disagree here. even if and when AI drives perfectly, these vehicles will still feel like a toy and a gimmick, like the morgantown PRT. the beltline is one of the few places in the city where you can escape from constantly being next to cars, and having a concrete path with driverless cars will destroy that feeling.

[Street Advocate]

Julien, please suggest riding a scooter or lime bike as a viable solution for a disabled military veteran or someone less mobile, unable to ride a bicycle, or bound to a wheelchair.

Report back with how the conversation goes! Really looking forward to what is shared!

[ArchKid]

Originally Posted by Julien

Don't think anyone said it would ruin the vibe. By far the BEST thing is to just complete The Beltline as is. FORGET Streetcars, EV Pods or any other mode. The Beltline is about recreation and NOT transportation. A Streetcar on The Beltline will just be mostly to completely empty for the reasons I have stated already. If anything just add segregated bike/scooter/skate board lanes and it will be a treasure.

Also autonomous robotaxis are not a "pipe dream" and are in operation in 3 US cities today and coming to ATL soon. Also as stated I can drive through/around Midtown, Downtown, GA Tech and West Side without ever having to do a thing in my car.

Here is a paid Waymo ride in Phoenix as proof and a Tesla FSD drive in San Francisco without intervention:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLOxEkcjAVo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43Lrrhn0CMk&t=876s

The designer of the Beltline is Ryan Gravel, who proposed transportation requirements from the outset, including a light rail line in the initial design. The Beltline is about transportation and NOT recreation.

[Kenn]

The grass "roadway" Is mentioned somewhere on the Beltline website and in the examples above it's quite stunning, as an anecdote to the standard brutal concrete and, more important, in the context of Atlanta's status as a heavily forested urban environment. Also, as a city whose very existence is predicated on transportation the powers that be should really consider capturing the EV age and create a unique hybrid light rail system with the cars' skates/undercarriage carrying the batteries. Or perhaps having a caboose battery car attached to each train. Unique, sleek, and fun. Not only would the cost of the electrification infrastructure be eliminated, but so would the overhead wires. The current, traditional, streetcar could end with the Ponce City Market extension and the rest of the loop could be built solely with tracks, a far more cost effective and swifter buildout.

[Terminus]

Originally Posted by ArchKid

The designer of the Beltline is Ryan Gravel, who proposed transportation requirements from the outset, including a light rail line in the initial design. The Beltline is about transportation and NOT recreation.

Exactly. It's NEVER been a recreation corridor.

As trail implementation began in the early 2000s, some folks encouraged Atlanta BeltLine, Inc. to leave tracks/remnants of tracks along the trail - lest the public forget that rail was central to the project. They chose not to.

What's happening now was predicted.

The thing that I wonder about is the Federal funding. If the Federal funding language specifically included infrastructure work for rail transit (which is a big reason the "just a sidewalk" portion takes so long), could the City/ABI could be financially on the hook if rail is removed? I know there is precedent for this in other areas.

[cabasse]

Originally Posted by Terminus

Exactly. It's NEVER been a recreation corridor.

As trail implementation began in the early 2000s, some folks encouraged Atlanta BeltLine, Inc. to leave tracks/remnants of tracks along the trail - lest the public forget that rail was central to the project. They chose not to.

What's happening now was predicted.

The thing that I wonder about is the Federal funding. If the Federal funding language specifically included infrastructure work for rail transit (which is a big reason the "just a sidewalk" portion takes so long), could the City/ABI could be financially on the hook if rail is removed? I know there is precedent for this in other areas.

wow - dickens should hear this specifically. i know it seems like he's been trying to weasel out of his earlier commitment supporting rail, but i wouldn't be surprised to hear if that pressure is actually coming from somewhere else... this would be a great way to say "it's out of my hands, i have to support this or we will no longer receive future funding."

[bryantm3]

The only reason I'm "anti pod" is that it would mean building a road. If they can put the pods on rails or have a train of pods I guess that'd be okay. But we were promised grass tracks, not concrete and asphalt...

[Sojourner_Terminus]

Originally Posted by bryantm3

The only reason I'm "anti pod" is that it would mean building a road. If they can put the pods on rails or have a train of pods I guess that'd be okay. But we were promised grass tracks, not concrete and asphalt...

Yeah, I don't think pod/self driving bus advocates are realizing how much uglier and more intrusive that option would be. Light rail with green tracks is the best option for throughput and aesthetic. Not to mention it will tie into the Marta system. If we really did go with pods, it would just be a tourist transport along the beltline, versus a system that will take you to downtown and other marta stations.

[Sojourner_Terminus]

To go a step further, I think the pod advocacy is really just the first step in trying to cancel transit along the beltline altogether. Pod advocates are primarily anti-beltline-transit advocates, and recommend pods as a way to placate transit advocates. Once they kill light rail in favor of pods, they will have killed transit advocacy momentum. From there its much easier to scrap transit altogether as no one really wants pods and its likely not nearly as feasible as we're being lead to believe.

[lux]

I have to chime in:

1. Autonomous cars: still cars. They're still large and ugly, expensive, inefficient, and require a significant amount of space. That's ignoring the "loud" and "polluting" aspects because I don't want to hear from the EV bros. Even if this imaginary future system may eventually be put in place, and that the autonomous cars can park themselves somewhere outside of the city at the end of the day, they're still expensive (AKA inaccessible to many), and roads and places that accommodate cars are still ugly and unpleasant, point blank.

2. Alternatives to trams on the beltline: I find it audacious that Atlantans think that this is a place for innovation in transit. This city is so many decades behind that I do not see how we are in a place to speak when it comes to "fixing" issues that traditional transit systems have. Your pods are a novelty. Trains and buses have been time-tested and proven how well they serve their purpose. If we invest in a novelty instead of a real streetcar, this city might seriously be unwalkable forever. There are many examples of cost-savings eventually leading to unforeseen circumstances; we are not in a place to make these kinds of bets.

3. Rail on the beltline: It is fantastic that the beltline is currently an oasis for safe mobility, but the goal should be for that to not be the case ASAP. Every artery should serve that purpose. At the end of the day, the Eastside trail it is a busy corridor with housing and jobs, so connecting it to downtown and MARTA is a no brainer. Treating it any differently is to accept that other parts of Atlanta will not eventually be connected, pleasant and walkable enough to share the load of people seeking entertainment and relaxation that we overly rely on the beltline for today. The Beltline just happens to have the right-of-way, density and political will for transit today.