Stop with the dreams/conversation of Houston passing 20 million - Page 2

Sun Belt · #21 Posted **Oct 26, 2019, 11:16 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThePhun1

Population is such a girth measuring contest, do you think New York is worried about the international metros and municipalities that have passed it? If so, it's a big pile of "who cares?"

I hope that never happens in Houston. First, there's the very legit concern of logistics in evacuating people for hurricanes or the threat of massive casualties as people shelter in place for them. Second, no matter how much better it gets, Houston is not built to be a city that can easily accommodate so many more people unless the growth rate slows down.

I'd rather the city slow down and gradually build into a more mature, tighter and urban environment. There's a large enough base to build that. I personally hope the area maxes out at 10 million for various reasons. 12 million would be fine but I hope that come relatively no time soon. (I better be more than 100-years old e.g. 70 years from now).

So in other words:

Stop Dreaming people. Stop thinking BIG and outside the box.

-----

Hey, you never know what the future will bring. Heck, one day we might return to our homeland -- Mars -- once we figure out how to grow potatoes in Martian soil and reintroduce liquid water to the planet that was vaporized by our very ancient ancestors.

ThePhun1 · #22 Posted **Oct 26, 2019, 11:19 PM**

If it happens, I hope it happens in a smart, sustainable way. And in this case, hurricanes are the elephants in the room. If Houston grows into a mega metro...you may know where I'd finish that. We're relectant to evacuate for hurricanes anymore. Think about that.

Sun Belt · #23 Posted **Oct 26, 2019, 11:28 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThePhun1

If it happens, I hope it happens in a smart, sustainable way. And in this case, hurricanes are the elephants in the room. If Houston grows into a mega metro...you may know where I'd finish that. We're relectant to evacuate for hurricanes anymore. Think about that.

I don't discount nor dismiss Texas for anything. If there is one place in the US that'll do it, it's Texas. NY, forget about it. CA, coastal commission and housing crisis.

isaidso · #24 Posted **Oct 26, 2019, 11:29 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAYNYC

Not the least bit true.

+1

Brits (and some other people) are obsessed with propagating the idea that London is New York's equal but that hasn't been the case since around 1940. London has made huge strides since the 1970s and the West's #2 but New York is far ahead of it on many levels.

galleyfox · #25 Posted **Oct 26, 2019, 11:36 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bailey

London and Paris once said the same thing about 'colonial' New York City and then watched NYC pass them in almost every measurable category a dominant Alpha City.

Will it happen someday...who knows?? But Houston is not land locked like the others and it is WAY further along than NYC was when it was only 183 years old!

Good grief, this was the argument of every single Midwestern city a hundred years ago, and they had even faster rates of growth in their heyday. They all fell hard after the boom ended, and the economic activity that was due to population growth itself faltered.

New York City was the economic capital in an era of high birth rates, mass immigration, and the transformation of America from rural to urban. Those factors don't really exist in America anymore, or at least not nearly to the same degree. Its growth will never be repeated save for a catastrophe elsewhere on the continent that triggers a mass migration.

bigstick · #26 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 12:02 AM**

Sorry but Houston is a HELL HOLE...If anything it might start loosing population in the next decades, put some Hurricanes in the mix..

craigs · #27 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 1:10 AM**

Barring an unforeseen catastrophe, I don't expect we will live to see greater Houston fail or shrink, but I do expect to see its growth rate slow down as it matures and aligns more with the growth rates of similarly-sized metros at similar points in their respective histories. That is to say, when greater Houston hits, say, 9.5 million I expect it to grow at around the same rate as DC and the Bay Area are currently.

Only one CSA in all of American history ever hit or exceeded 20 million people, and every living American has known NYC to be our greatest, most populous urban agglomeration by far. None of our other population centers has ever hit or exceeded that mark. Because it is such an extreme metric, it's kind of silly to pick a random CSA less than one-third greater New York's size and float the idea it will be only the second metro to make the grade.

If any other CSA were to hit 20 million in our lifetimes, and I don't know there will be one, I would expect it to be greater Los Angeles. The argument for that is the CSA will likely have grown by a million people between the 2010 and 2020 Censuses, and if that rate were to hold the same or similar going forward, we'd see the Southland at 20 million in 2040 or so. The more persuasive argument, however, is that we cannot simply assume that the population growth of the past shall last forever. And that is also true of Houston, and every other city in the world.

Sun Belt · #28 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 1:21 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by craigs

Barring an unforeseen catastrophe, I don't expect we will live to see greater Houston fail or shrink, but I do expect to see its growth rate slow down as it matures and aligns more with the growth rates of similarly-sized metros at similar points in their respective histories. That is to say, when greater Houston hits, say, 9.5 million I expect it to grow at around the same rate as DC and the Bay Area are currently..

Why? Houstonia can sprawl forever within the Great State of Texas -- Well except to it's eastern flank, unless we drain the Gulf of Mexico one day.

galleyfox · #29 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 6:42 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

Why? Houstonia can sprawl forever within the Great State of Texas -- Well except to it's eastern flank, unless we drain the Gulf of Mexico one day.

Too much sprawl defeats the entire point of a city, which is connecting the most amount of jobs with the most amount of people within a reasonable commute time. At about 90-min commute, either land prices begin skyrocketing in the center, and families looking for cheap housing move to another region, or the city splits into two -a rich side with all the jobs where sprawl continues and a poor side that employers have abandoned.

Traffic and commuting are the limiters of city growth.

maru2501 · #30 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 12:58 PM**

I think houston's peak will be around chicago MSA size, with hopefully more urbanization around the core. Still seems to need land-use help to get there

benp · #31 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 1:52 PM**

Houston has had net negative domestic migration the last 2 years, and the overall working age population has not kept up with the total population the last 5 years. Total births per year has been falling even though the total population has increased, while the deaths per year increased by almost 40%, and the death rate per capita increased almost 15%. Houston is getting older.

Houston is still a boom or bust kind of town.

Centropolis · #32 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 2:10 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

Why? Houstonia can sprawl forever within the Great State of Texas -- Well except to it's eastern flank, unless we drain the Gulf of Mexico one day.

you've just described chicago...which was a hell of a lot harder charging economic and environmental free for all than houston during its boom.

the midwest is prologue to many of todays boom cities. as before some will shake out as having lasting growth and influence but many others will not...some will level off and some will rot.

dktshb · #33 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 4:16 PM**

Yeah, aren't Americans moving less now? Couple that with lower birth rates and a huge slowdown of immigrants coming to this country. Wouldn't all that sort of put an end to most cities seeing any large booms in their populations? Probably at the end of this century when most all of us are gone there may be huge influxes of movement internally and from other countries do to a warming climate.

iheartthed · #34 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 4:32 PM**

Speaking of Houston, it has been the nation's fourth largest city for going on 4 censuses, which is, historically speaking, a bad sign for whether it will ever grow beyond the position. Philadelphia, Boston and Detroit are the only other cities in U.S. history to hold that position for 3 or more consecutive U.S. censuses. They all eventually fell out of the top 5 either immediately or soon after.

OTOH, L.A. and Chicago both only spent one census at #4. Chicago has been in the top 3 since 1890, and L.A. since 1960.

It will be pretty fascinating to see how this response ages, lol.

C. · #35 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 5:10 PM**

A lot of hate for Houston. It's one of the more diverse major cities in the United States. Housing is relatively affordable.

With climate change, NYC is also one Cat 5 hurricane away from oblivion, too.

Houston is an interesting experiment in the United States. I'm curious how the city will continue to develop. Will it be chocked by sprawl, probably? Will the lax development regulations lead to urban infill, that could happen too.

dubu · #36 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 5:24 PM**

i think all big cities are a interesting experiment. cars have been in us cities for 100 years and we are watching the end product.

JAYNYC · #37 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 6:20 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigstick

Sorry but Houston is a HELL HOLE...

Says someone posting from Atlanta, which today is essentially what Houston resembled 20 years ago.

iheartthed · #38 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 6:27 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by C.

A lot of hate for Houston. It's one of the more diverse major cities in the United States. Housing is relatively affordable.

With climate change, NYC is also one Cat 5 hurricane away from oblivion, too.

Houston is an interesting experiment in the United States. I'm curious how the city will continue to develop. Will it be chocked by sprawl, probably? Will the lax development regulations lead to urban infill, that could happen too.

NYC is susceptible to stronger storms, but nowhere near as susceptible as Houston to a powerful hurricane. That's a false equivalence.

Cat 5 hurricanes need 80F water temps to sustain that intensity. This doesn't happen in the open ocean near NYC. But the Gulf of Mexico is often that warm for most of hurricane season.

bigstick · #39 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 7:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaynyc

says someone posting from atlanta, which today is essentially what houston resembled 20 years ago.

hardly....

dc_denizen · #40 Posted **Oct 27, 2019, 7:31 PM**

is this so terrible?

River Oaks-Houston Skyline-ROBB-Mabry Campbell by Mabry Campbell, on Flickr