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Originally Posted by StoOgE
Yeah, but I will say that the financial collapse at that time froze financing at a very high level and specifically funding for large scale projects came to a screeching halt nationally. I was still working in finance back then, and it was a real wacky moment.
Assuming whatever recession we enter in the next 4-5 years looks like is a more normal correction and not something that catastrophic there will be capital available for projects in off-cycle sectors or regions.
The last recession (hopefully) isn't a useful predictor of normal downturns. Though, all out trade wars and protectionism is a fun thing was haven't really seen at scale since pre-WWII. So, hopefully we get away from this stupidity and get back to free trade.
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I have a pretty simple reason for fearing a recession's effects less in Austin in particular, and that's because so much of the boom in the city is tech-driven.
The last time tech was the cause of a recession (the dot-com bubble), so much more of the money going through Silicon Valley was speculative and the entire industry itself was in its infancy. There had not yet been much proof of profitability. Even since the Great Recession, the tech industry has matured so much and seems to run on its own set of principles that preclude some of the more volatile aspects of the economy.
We haven't yet seen how the tech industry would respond to a contraction of activity now that literally everyone has a smartphone, and Amazon and other online retailers are monumental money-printing machines. None of these companies are going anywhere this time, and Austin has firmly established itself as both a tech and tourism hub in the decade since 2008. Even if a recession causes the average American to keep the purse-strings tighter, phones, tablets, and the Alexas and Siris of the world aren't going anywhere.
Also, it has already been stated that if anything will tip the US into a recession, it won't be a real estate bubble this time, but either the bubble of student and credit card debt, the current trade war or continued volatility in the federal government that will do it. These big new projects coming online have shown that they are going ahead with tenants and numbers that prove their viability, and honestly, the Texas economy itself is such a steamroller that it would take more than a normal cyclical correction to destabilize everything locally. I'm not so worried at the moment.
Also N90, thank you for the new rundown, I'm weeping tears of joy at these towers. YAAS