BC Political Discussion: Election 2020 and Beyond

[red-paladin]

Let's wrap up the previous thread and continue here as a new election has been called.

[logicbomb]

Copy and paste

Feeling good about a Liberal win.

The last election saw razor thin margins in several swing ridings. The BC NDP have pissed off cab drivers, non-union trades and medium businesses. Lumber industry has been decimated as well.

They just need 1 more riding to get a majority and I can see them getting Courtenay-Comox and 2 of the Surrey ridings.

You just need to campaign on the following:

Originally Posted by logicbomb

If I am the Liberals I platform on 4 things:
1) Massey Bridge and Valley Freeway Infrastructure
Improvements with 2025 completion
2) Toughen up on crime and the issues in the DTES
3) Privatize auto insurance. Sell off all ICBC assets to balance the budget and provide relief for taxpayers.
4)Additional funding for Skytrain to Langley

They will get the rural and interior votes regardless of what they do. They just need 3-4 Metro Vancouver ridings to take control.

[bluefox]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Copy and paste

Feeling good about a Liberal win.

The last election saw razor thin margins in several swing ridings. The BC NDP have pissed off cab drivers, non-union trades and medium businesses. Lumber industry has been decimated as well.

They just need 1 more riding to get a majority and I can see them getting Courtenay-Comox and 2 of the Surrey ridings.

You just need to campaign on the following:

I agree there will be some softening of NDP support because many will see this as cynical, but where do those votes go? Certainly not to the Liberals. Voter memories are not that short, 2017 is not that long ago. More importantly, Wilkinson is not the man to overcome a 25-point deficit in the polls. For whatever qualifications he has, he has zero personality and his mouth gets him in trouble just as often as Horgan's does. At this point I don't really see any way for Wilkinson to overcome the reputation he has made for himself in the public view as a stiff-arsed onepercenter.

What voters will consider when they vote is not always what you think it's going to be.

The third major variable, besides public sentiment and how COVID goes over the next month, is how efficient the vote will be for each party. Historically the NDP has not had as efficient of a vote, so even though they are ahead that won't necessarily translate into a landslide.

If the election were today I would predict mid-40s for the NDP, mid-to-high-30s for the Liberals, 10-12% for the Greens. Seatswise, probably 50-55 seats for the NDP, 30-35 seats for the Liberals, and 1-2 for the Greens. Sonia is in the best position to keep her seat, Adam is in trouble and OBGH will go NDP or Liberal.

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Copy and paste

Feeling good about a Liberal win.

The last election saw razor thin margins in several swing ridings. The BC NDP have pissed off cab drivers, non-union trades and medium businesses. Lumber industry has been decimated as well.

They just need 1 more riding to get a majority and I can see them getting Courtenay-Comox and 2 of the Surrey ridings.

You just need to campaign on the following:

I appreciate your comments and I feel much the same.

can I get a .......

GO WILKINSON GO!

[rofina]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

I appreciate your comments and I feel much the same.

can I get a .......

GO WILKINSON GO!

As someone who has voted Liberal since I have come into this province 20 years ago - with the exception of the last election, I voted NDP, what can you possibly find compelling about the Liberals today?

Wilkinson is about as interesting of a leader as soggy bread is a compelling meal.

What have the Liberals done over the last 3 years to earn a vote?

This is a genuine question. They have been invisible this whole NDP term, and any information that has come out just showcased more incompetence and corruption under the C.Clark government.

Right now I don't see a reason to not vote NDP again.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by rofina

As someone who has voted Liberal since I have come into this province 20 years ago - with the exception of the last election, I voted NDP, what can you possibly find compelling about the Liberals today?

Wilkinson is about as interesting of a leader as soggy bread is a compelling meal.

What have the Liberals done over the last 3 years to earn a vote?

This is a genuine question. They have been invisible this whole NDP term, and any information that has come out just showcased more incompetence and corruption under the C.Clark government.

Right now I don't see a reason to not vote NDP again.

They'll win or lose on the news cycles leading up to voting. Like you said it was easy to vote NDP in the last election. I guess Horgan is depending on the Covid response and subsequent positive polling to win.

And the likelhood that Green-NDP let alone a Green-Liberal coalition government anytime in the near future? Nil?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

I appreciate your comments and I feel much the same.

can I get a .......

GO WILKINSON GO!

No, but I can give you a...

GONE WILKINSON GONE!

[rofina]

Originally Posted by whatnext

No, but I can give you a...

GONE WILKINSON GONE!

Liberals are going to have one tough road back. There isn't much to salvage here.

Split and renaming dont seem impossible.

[Cypherus]

Repost to new Thread:

There will be voter backlash against Horgan calling an election during a pandemic in order to capitalize on his polling numbers and obviate any potential for a lower electoral performance next year. I am for one, turned off with his decision as an NDP supporter. It's a self-interested power grab during a time where people lost their jobs, struggling with physical and mental issues, and realigning their schedules to stay afloat and maintain household balance. It's almost Trump-like to call an election early for self-interest pursuits.

Horgan suggesting Covid 19 is hear to stay until next year, so let's have the election now, is farcical. There is a lot that can change between now and then (vaccines, etc.), so that's not a valid reason. As well, it just fuels conspiracies that the government is using Covid to shape politics and societies and that nothing will change between now and then. Lastly, with Dr. Henry inculcating others to be mindful about preventing the spreading of Covid 19, that seems to no longer be important anymore when an election is called and requires people's participation to some degree in the public domain.

[svlt]

Copy pasting to new thread.

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Will come down to turnout rate. Anything less than 55% will see a liberal majority.

Liberal voters will vote regardless of what happens. They protested last time and refused to vote for Christy Clark. Some I knew voted Green but they will vote Liberal

NDP voters will need to come out of they hope to have a chance in hell.

I would have voted NDP but their stupid handling of COVID19, cancellation of the Massey Bridge and now selfish snap election will force me Green.

Eh, COVID-19 isn't what I ding them for, they've done fine thanks to Henry.

I dislike their anti-infrastructure (and by nature the jobs and economic boost that it gives the province) stance and thought their opposition to Site C and TMX were colossal wastes of tax dollars and time, even going around to dicking with the Federal government that approved it and indirectly causing tax paying Canadians to now be owners of a 4.5 billion dollar pipeline. Blank cheques to the legal teams I guess. That and the Massey Tunnel delay as well as halting fixed link explorations I'm not a fan of. The Libs had greenlit most of these projects. Housing costs are still way up and would likely be the same spot it's in now if the election went the other way in 2017.

I'm usually a BC Liberal voter (but Federal Lib) that went NDP for the first time in 2017 in a mildly competitive riding in Metro Van, for the same reasons as many, just to shake out some of the rot and corruption. I don't think my daily life improved as a result of a Horgan government and may go back to Liberals this time because of the terribly ill timing of this call.

Honestly I'm not that partisan in provincial politics, as both Liberals and NDP are competent parties from my observation and can run the province fine, if in different strokes with different weaknesses.

Wilkinson by the way is a doctor, lawyer and Rhodes scholar, the kind of intellectual credentials people praise nowadays in leadership. He just has the personality of a damp towel but that isn't a good enough reason alone to vehemently dislike him.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by svlt

I dislike their anti-infrastructure (and by nature the jobs and economic boost that it gives the province) stance and thought their opposition to Site C and TMX were colossal wastes of tax dollars and time, even going around to dicking with the Federal government that approved it and indirectly causing tax paying Canadians to now be owners of a 4.5 billion dollar pipeline. Blank cheques to the legal teams I guess. That and the Massey Tunnel delay as well as halting fixed link explorations I'm not a fan of. The Libs had greenlit most of these projects. Housing costs are still way up and would likely be the same spot it's in now if the election went the other way in 2017.

I'm usually a BC Liberal voter (but Federal Lib) that went NDP for the first time in 2017 for the same reasons as many, just to shake out some of the rot and corruption. I don't think my daily life improved as a result of a Horgan government and may go back to Liberals this time because of the terribly ill timing of this call.

Honestly I'm not that partisan in provincial politics, as both Liberals and NDP are competent parties from my observation and can run the province fine, if in different strokes with different weaknesses.

Wilkinson by the way is a doctor, lawyer and Rhodes scholar, the kind of intellectual credentials people praise nowadays in leadership. He just has the personality of a damp towel but that isn't a good enough reason alone to vehemently dislike him.

Agree. Their handling of the Massey Bridge was downright criminal. All that work was for nothing. Tens of millions down the drain for nothing. Work had already began and there has been no movement for any replacement since they scrapped it.

Agree on TMX and Site C. Virtue signalling cost us hundreds of millions there.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

Agree. Their handling of the Massey Bridge was downright criminal. All that work was for nothing. Tens of millions down the drain for nothing. Work had already began and there has been no movement for any replacement since they scrapped it.

Agree on TMX and Site C. Virtue signalling cost us hundreds of millions there.

I don't think voters care too much about any of that. We all know how all 3 of those are going forward (more or less).

They aren't going to change anyone's mind IMO.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by svlt

Copy pasting to new thread.



Eh, COVID-19 isn't what I ding them for, they've done fine thanks to Henry.

I dislike their anti-infrastructure (and by nature the jobs and economic boost that it gives the province) stance and thought their opposition to Site C and TMX were colossal wastes of tax dollars and time, even going around to dicking with the Federal government that approved it and indirectly causing tax paying Canadians to now be owners of a 4.5 billion dollar pipeline. Blank cheques to the legal teams I guess. That and the Massey Tunnel delay as well as halting fixed link explorations I'm not a fan of. The Libs had greenlit most of these projects. Housing costs are still way up and would likely be the same spot it's in now if the election went the other way in 2017.

I'm usually a BC Liberal voter (but Federal Lib) that went NDP for the first time in 2017 in a mildly competitive riding in Metro Van, for the same reasons as many, just to shake out some of the rot and corruption. I don't think my daily life improved as a result of a Horgan government and may go back to Liberals this time because of the terribly ill timing of this call.

Honestly I'm not that partisan in provincial politics, as both Liberals and NDP are competent parties from my observation and can run the province fine, if in different strokes with different weaknesses.

Wilkinson by the way is a doctor, lawyer and Rhodes scholar, the kind of intellectual credentials people praise nowadays in leadership. He just has the personality of a damp towel but that isn't a good enough reason alone to vehemently dislike him.

The NDP is only "anti-infrastructure" if you don't consider hospitals and public transit as "infrastructure".

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by Cypherus

Repost to new Thread:

There will be voter backlash against Horgan calling an election during a pandemic in order to capitalize on his polling numbers and obviate any potential for a lower electoral performance next year. I am for one, turned off with his decision as an NDP supporter. It's a self-interested power grab during a time where people lost their jobs, struggling with physical and mental issues, and realigning their schedules to stay afloat and maintain household balance. It's almost Trump-like to call an election early for self-interest pursuits.

Horgan suggesting Covid 19 is hear to stay until next year, so let's have the election now, is farcical. There is a lot that can change between now and then (vaccines, etc.), so that's not a valid reason. As well, it just fuels conspiracies that the government is using Covid to shape politics and societies and that nothing will change between now and then. Lastly, with Dr. Henry inculcating others to be mindful about preventing the spreading of Covid 19, that seems to no longer be important anymore when an election is called and requires people's participation to some degree in the public domain.

HERE HERE! well put. I know multiple NDPers who are pissed and will be voting Green. nice break down one things.

all I can do is hope we get a whole bunch of Comox Valley NDPers to vote Green!

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by hollywoodnorth

HERE HERE! well put. I know multiple NDPers who are pissed and will be voting Green. nice break down one things.

all I can do is hope we get a whole bunch of Comox Valley NDPers to vote Green!

Anyone contemplating Green should recall Weaver's parting shot against the party he led.
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/ex-b-c-green-p...tter-1.4954239

Sonia Furstenau comes across as a dour, adult Greta Thurnberg. No thanks.
And we all know they will not form government.

The NDP has cleaned up a lot of the BC Liberal messes like ICBC and taken aim at money laundering. I'm just sad Carole James is leaving as she has done a good job as Finance Minister, being very pragmatic for an NDP government.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Anyone contemplating Green should recall Weaver's parting shot against the party he led.
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/ex-b-c-green-p...tter-1.4954239

Sonia Furstenau comes across as a dour, adult Greta Thurnberg. No thanks.
And we all know they will not form government.

The NDP has cleaned up a lot of the BC Liberal messes like ICBC and taken aim at money laundering. I'm just sad Carole James is leaving as she has done a good job as Finance Minister, being very pragmatic for an NDP government.

Yes the BC Greens just elected an eco-socialist as leader, instead of Brewer, a late entry into the race who did quite well. He is definitely more market-aligned, with a big Green agenda of course. A breath of fresh air, but alas.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Yes the BC Greens just elected an eco-socialist as leader, instead of Brewer, a late entry into the race who did quite well. He is definitely more market-aligned, with a big Green agenda of course. A breath of fresh air, but alas.

But in the grand scheme of things does it really matter? No leader was going to propel them into 15 seats let alone 5.

[WarrenC12]

I disagree with most of your points, but agree the Liberals have a chance (less than 50% IMO).

Their leader is a boat anchor and has stuck his foot in his mouth numerous times in his limited engagement thus far.

It will be interesting to see what the Liberals propose for economic recovery, that should be their strongest point.

[osirisboy]

Can someone put up a poll for who will people vote for

[chowhou]

Going into this election, I don't think anyone even knows Site C or TMX even exist anymore. Ultimately this will be a referendum on handling of COVID (including calling an early election), and even more than usual "the economy, stupid".

Transportation infrastructure is probably absolutely a non-issue for most people right now, since traffic and transit congestion are way way down (for obvious reasons). Hell, I live on the North Shore and congestion on the Second Narrows seems like a distant memory.

Originally Posted by logicbomb

They just need 1 more riding to get a majority and I can see them getting Courtenay-Comox and 2 of the Surrey ridings.

Those Surrey ridings are some hard flips. On the other hand, the NDP could very easily take back Burke Mountain, and False Creek has consistently trended towards an NDP slant.