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  #81  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2021, 3:03 PM
Skintreesnail Skintreesnail is offline
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
One thing people I think are not considering is that to the degree some WFH becomes permanent, it will affect suburban knowledge jobs just as much as urban ones. I mean, I don't believe office workers post-COVID will be anywhere near as "transit averse" as they have been over the last year. Thus you sort of return to the pre-COVID norm - where urban offices are just more desirable due to having other convenience surrounding them (restaurants for lunch rather than a corporate cafeteria, after-work nightlife, etc.)

Of course, suburbs do not rely on tax revenue from office parks to the degree that a city like Chicago or NYC relies upon tax revenue from its office areas. On the other hand, repurposing commercial highrises into office space isn't anywhere near as difficult as transforming a suburban office park into something more attractive.
I agree with that; it just seems like if there is any impact it would be more of a general decrease in the need to commute and less desire to be in an office. When I look at it like that what I see as the candidate for most impact after covid are the corporate office parks. Cities with established walkable downtowns with a mix of things to do will continue to be attractive, as well as the suburbs that are less office-park focused and more main street focused. I might be a bit biased since that's the work environment I enjoy. I suppose there are some people that like to drive to a parking lot and just stay in an office building all day.

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Originally Posted by twister244 View Post
I like the previous post discussing office patterns. It's safe to assume that suburban office parks may suffer greatly, but inner city areas may bounce back with younger people wanting to be around people. Instead of seeing companies with a large presence in any given building, you may see large chunks of co-working spaces that companies can fill in when necessary for their employees that may come in a few times a week. Or, you will also see co working spaces for those of us (like myself) that just want a place to go and socialize with other professionals.

It's still very hard to see how exactly this plays out, but it's super interesting to see how companies are evolving right now as it's becoming very obvious we are weeks away from entering the post-pandemic era.
I was thinking the same thing recently about co-working. A lot of the ones I've seen are large and spacious, kind of exactly what I would want in a post-covid world. Plus, I'm assuming companies can save money this way.
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  #82  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2021, 3:12 PM
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Originally Posted by twister244 View Post
While Google and Amazon may be jumping the gun to start telling people to come back, Ford (yes, Ford), announced just a couple weeks ago that they will be letting a huge chunk of their employees work remotely indefinitely.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephan...h=714d00761a1c
That's not what's happening, they're allowing employees the option to come and go into the office in a hybrid model as they please. Which makes sense since this pandemic will linger for god knows how long. The same thing those other companies are doing. Not full remote work.
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  #83  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2021, 3:19 PM
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That's not what's happening, they're allowing employees the option to come and go into the office in a hybrid model as they please. Which makes sense since this pandemic will linger for god knows how long. The same thing those other companies are doing. Not full remote work.
Maybe I didn't read up on Google/Amazon closely enough then. The Forbes article I linked stated that employees may have to come into the office/work if it requires in-person meetings, etc, but otherwise their employees can work remotely indefinitely.

It seemed like Google/Amazon is explicitly saying people will be expected to come back into the office, regardless of meetings/functions/etc.
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  #84  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2021, 3:20 PM
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Originally Posted by twister244 View Post
I don't know.....

I think you're going to see a tug of war now between employees and employers. For some positions, yeah, it's best to be back in the office. But, if you have a good working relationship with your team, your aren't managing people, etc, there may not be a pressing need to get back into the office. It's all going to depend on company culture too.

My company has become so distributed with employees everywhere now that it's going to be really hard to get even half of our people into an office now given they are spread all over the country, and the world.

Some of us have gotten so used to remote work, that we have now carved out a plan for remote work moving forward. I am literally about a month from hopping into my car and working remotely from Chicago this summer before doing Europe/Tel Aviv this fall. I'm sure many others have already made these plans. Once you open those flood gates, it's pretty hard to undo giving people that option.
I mean, while digital nomading might be appealing for employees, employers will probably focus on that one time when something could have been done faster if you were in the office without regard to employee quality of life... (I have to go into lab at least occasionally for my work so it's a moot point for me lol).
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  #85  
Old Posted Apr 6, 2021, 5:50 PM
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
I mean, while digital nomading might be appealing for employees, employers will probably focus on that one time when something could have been done faster if you were in the office without regard to employee quality of life... (I have to go into lab at least occasionally for my work so it's a moot point for me lol).
I can see that being a factor for operational/support type work that is more reactive or might require special equipment, but for basic office project work that is based on deliverables and timelines, it really doesn't matter if you are meeting deadlines at home or from some cubicle, provided you're able to. Also on the operational side of things, it might be beneficial to an employer to know that so-and-so is setup at home/wherever and available at off-hours to do work as needed. Even on the project side of things I see myself working more often outside the normal 9-5 schedule since it's just easy to. Of course all this is under assumption that my electricity and internet are working. Even then I would be on battery power and able to tether to my cell data for at least the interim until reaching some office location if needed.
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  #86  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 5:50 PM
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How are things going in liberal utopia NYC? Let's check in with the New York Post.
Doc Holliday
Apr 9th, 2021 10:16 am



“No man’s life, liberty or property are safe while the Legislature is in session.” That’s how Gideon Tucker — a New Yorker who knew Albany as a former legislator, secretary of state and judge…

Here are some highlights from the nuclear bomb of an article:

The possibility of permanent decline and the ultimate destruction of the New York we know is unmatched in modern memory.

The state's take raises the total budget about to be adopted to $212 billion, some $18 billion higher than the fiscal year that just ended. Florida, which has 2 million more people, will make do with spending $97 billion this year.

Despite the bailout, and the December pandemic stimulus, and the ones before that, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and lawmakers are launching $4 billion of new tax hikes. Apparently being the highest-taxed state by most measurements doesn't satisfy them. They want to be No. 1 across the board.

What business would want to come here now? Why should existing ones continue to pay more and more for dangerous and dirty streets and arbitrary pandemic shutdowns?

Murder [in NYC] climbed nearly 45 percent last year and is up an additional 13.5 percent this year. The increases translate into an additional 153 New Yorkers shot, stabbed and strangled. Shootings are up 72 percent in two years, and car thefts are up a staggering 91 percent. The city is in a death spiral, with unprovoked attacks and subway pushings adding more reason for rational fear.

Albany's answer: Put more handcuffs on cops, turn just about every criminal suspect loose, empty the prisons and raise taxes. Also, let's give money — $2.1 billion, to be exact — to illegal immigrants by creating an "excluded workers' fund."


So why do people stay in New York City?

For many, just because it's home. It's where they were raised.

For many others, sadly, because they can't leave. They lack the means.

And their government is doing everything they can to keep it that way.

If things keep going the way they are now, NYC's future is dire, indeed.
https://notthebee.com/article/how-ar...-new-york-post

Just so you know!
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  #87  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 5:56 PM
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Originally Posted by twister244 View Post
It's safe to assume that suburban office parks may suffer greatly, but inner city areas may bounce back with younger people wanting to be around people. Instead of seeing companies with a large presence in any given building, you may see large chunks of co-working spaces that companies can fill in when necessary for their employees that may come in a few times a week. Or, you will also see co working spaces for those of us (like myself) that just want a place to go and socialize with other professionals.

It's still very hard to see how exactly this plays out, but it's super interesting to see how companies are evolving right now as it's becoming very obvious we are weeks away from entering the post-pandemic era.
Working from home may seem attractive now, but after the spouse has said: "Honey, you're not going to the office any more and will be home all day so how about going to the grocery store, making sure the cleaning lady doesn't miss the baseboards and can you throw a load of diapers in the laundry? And by the way, little Pamela needs to be picked up at school and taken to ballet class," one too many times it may not seem anywhere near as attractive.
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  #88  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 5:57 PM
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The worst thing about rich people threatening to leave "liberal utopias" is that they won't shut the fuck up about it. They have to make sure everyone knows that the place where they willingly chose to spend most of their lives is indeed a Hell hole, lol.
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  #89  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 6:01 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
The worst thing about rich people threatening to leave "liberal utopias" is that they won't shut the fuck up about it. They have to make sure everyone knows that the place where they willingly chose to spend most of their lives is indeed a Hell hole, lol.
Quote:
Summers Says New York’s Millionaires Tax Risks ‘Downward Spiral’
Christopher Condon
April 9, 2021, 8:38 AM MST

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said New York state’s new budget deal, which raises taxes on millionaires, may backfire, especially if Congress doesn’t repeal the federal cap on state and local tax deductions.

Millionaires “deserve to pay more taxes -- it should happen,” Summers said in an interview with David Westin on Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week.” “But New York City and New York state can’t do it alone without substantial consequences in this environment” . . . .
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...weekendreading

It may not be a "hell hole" but many of them are probably at the stage of their lives where they were considering a move to someplace more "resort-like" anyway and this pushes them over the edge. Besides, they don't have to abandon New York. They just have to live there less than half the time and move things like car registrations, voting, professional licenses and so on out of the state. New York for a month or two in Spring and Fall, Florida in winter, maybe Tuscany in summer doesn't sound so bad.
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  #90  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 6:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
New York is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They have to pay for all the things that those millionaires and billionaires find attractive about the city. I don't understand how people expect that to happen without tax increases, considering the city and state have been put into a huge financial hole because of the pandemic.
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  #91  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 6:22 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
The worst thing about rich people threatening to leave "liberal utopias" is that they won't shut the fuck up about it. They have to make sure everyone knows that the place where they willingly chose to spend most of their lives is indeed a Hell hole, lol.
Because it's all bullshit. They're just saying shit to fearmonger. They will push any lie to get out of paying their fair share in taxes. Nobody with half a brain is buying this garbage.
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  #92  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 6:25 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
New York is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They have to pay for all the things that those millionaires and billionaires find attractive about the city. I don't understand how people expect that to happen without tax increases, considering the city and state have been put into a huge financial hole because of the pandemic.
I think that's just it. The things millionaires and billionaires find attractive do not so much depend on tax money. 3-star Michelin restaurants aren't tax funded. Neither are cars with drivers always at the ready. Nor the services in private residential buildings. Certain high cultural activities may be partially tax funded but the billionaires can keep the opera/symphony/ballet performing if need be, even if they get less tax money.

The very rich probably don't use public transit, view their art at home rather than in a gallery and if they want a picnic, have it at somebody's private estate and not in the city park.

At least this is the way it is in San Francisco which, to some extent, has the same issue although, thank G*d we have no city income tax.
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  #93  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 6:27 PM
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Because it's all bullshit. They're just saying shit to fearmonger. They will push any lie to get out of paying their fair share in taxes. Nobody with half a brain is buying this garbage.
Watch 'em move. They will. There'll be no headline each time one does so it will surprise people like you, but they will. And, as I said, they don't even have to abandon the city's best pleasures entirely. Look at the lifestyle of Jeffrey Epstein. Do you think he paid taxes as a NY City resident? I doubt it--he could have been a resident of NY, the Virgin Islands, New Mexico . . . it was a big choice.
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  #94  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 6:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
Watch 'em move. They will. There'll be no headline each time one does so it will surprise people like you, but they will. And, as I said, they don't even have to abandon the city's best pleasures entirely. Look at the lifestyle of Jeffrey Epstein. Do you think he paid taxes as a NY City resident? I doubt it--he could have been a resident of NY, the Virgin Islands, New Mexico . . . it was a big choice.
If they go, they go. They'll either go because their taxes got raised, or they'll go because quality of life factors have plummeted when the city cuts services to the bone. Either way, I don't find a lot of value in fretting about what they do. But they should be careful about complaining too loudly before they really spark a national anti-elite fever.
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  #95  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 7:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
Working from home may seem attractive now, but after the spouse has said: "Honey, you're not going to the office any more and will be home all day so how about going to the grocery store, making sure the cleaning lady doesn't miss the baseboards and can you throw a load of diapers in the laundry? And by the way, little Pamela needs to be picked up at school and taken to ballet class," one too many times it may not seem anywhere near as attractive.
Most couples are dual income - both working, now, especially not the super wealthy.
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  #96  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 8:37 PM
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Most couples are dual income - both working, now, especially not the super wealthy.
.

That's the point. If one of 'em's working from home and the other isn't or if both are "hybrid" and going to the office on different days, the one at home is not going to be left peacefully alone to "work". They are going to be expected to do all sorts of "chores" since they are "home". And suddenly they may wish they weren't.

And I can't escape believing that the people who spend more time in the office are going to be seen, at least subconsciously, as the more loyal and hard-working employees and are just going to get more face time with the boss meaning more promotions.

This working from home thing does not come free. I watched a discussion of it just the other night on TV and the point several people made is that while you can get routine collaborative work done via Zoom, you can't really be all that creative. Nothing beats an extended in-person brainstorming session.

I think all this will become more and more apparent to all concerned and the "work from home" thing will become the province of a smaller and smaller minority of employees (at least among the better paid and more creative ones).
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  #97  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 8:38 PM
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Despite having 2 million more people, Florida's state budget is HALF the size of New Yorks. Is live twice as good in New York? The data on incoming and outgoing migration would suggest a big fat NO.

And NY is suggesting raising taxes. It's almost as if they are planning on failing at this point.
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  #98  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 8:40 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
The worst thing about rich people threatening to leave "liberal utopias" is that they won't shut the fuck up about it. They have to make sure everyone knows that the place where they willingly chose to spend most of their lives is indeed a Hell hole, lol.
Like it or not, its because they have tons of power.

If a billionaire leaves NYC, the city loses what...tens of thousands of dollars in taxes a day? It's a big deal.
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  #99  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 8:42 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
If they go, they go. They'll either go because their taxes got raised, or they'll go because quality of life factors have plummeted when the city cuts services to the bone. Either way, I don't find a lot of value in fretting about what they do. But they should be careful about complaining too loudly before they really spark a national anti-elite fever.
Why on Earth would you not care about them moving? Who do you think pays for all the massive government programs in NYC? It isn't the poor.
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  #100  
Old Posted Apr 10, 2021, 8:47 PM
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CBRE had a thorough presentation on the impact on resident migration patterns from Covid-19. I'm not sure if I should post it here in this thread or another, or in a few threads, but here it is:
https://www.cbre.us/research-and-rep...ation-Patterns
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