Southern California leads state’s 1st population gain since 2019

[kittyhawk28]

https://www.ocregister.com/2024/04/3...in-since-2019/

Article about California's population stabilizing and growing again. State grew by 67,100 people last year to 39.13 million, the highest figure since 2021.

There's an interesting divergence between the Northern and the Southern parts of the state. Calculating from the chart, Greater LA/SoCal region grew by around 35000 people to 18.42 million people, while the Bay Area still lost over -10000 people to 7.58 million people during 2023. It's a bit unusual since for the past 15-20 years the Bay Area/Norcal had a stronger economy and much faster growth than Greater LA/Socal, but it seems remote work hit the Bay Area much harder, especially since its economy is reliant on tech. Remains to be seen if this trend lasts, but interesting nonetheless.

[TWAK]

Ohhh the area that is growing in the CV also has the HSR alignment, well now ain't that satisfying on the transportation argument front! My county gained 303 people it looks like, not bad...but that sorta ruins the affordability if everybody starts coming up here!

[LA21st]

I'm pretty sure some of the loss in the previous 3 years was covid related and its people just moving back. I wouldnt be surprised if more people are looking to move back as it was temporary.

[benp]

Originally Posted by LA21st

I'm pretty sure some of the loss in the previous 3 years was covid related and its people just moving back. I wouldnt be surprised if more people are looking to move back as it was temporary.

Or just not as many people dying from COVID related causes, so the birth/death ratio became more positive. California had 30k excess deaths in 2021, 45k in 2022.

[homebucket]

It looks like most if the growth is happening in the Inland Empire as well as San Joaquin County. Most likely people from LA and the Bay Area are moving further out to more affordable but still relatively close areas.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by TWAK

Ohhh the area that is growing in the CV also has the HSR alignment, well now ain't that satisfying on the transportation argument front! My county gained 303 people it looks like, not bad...but that sorta ruins the affordability if everybody starts coming up here!

Yeah looks like there’s growth in Fresno and Kern Counties. Which is where HSR will run through.

[ChrisLA]

I was going to add that most of the growth was probably in Southern California. Traffic was already awful before Covid but now it’s even worse. I also suspect with a of people of the teleworking there are more people are running errands through out the day that typically was done during lunch or after work. So it just feels more crowded throughout the day.

I can’t explain the weekend traffic, again it was already pretty bad but even worse now.

[LA21st]

Its def worse now

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by benp

Or just not as many people dying from COVID related causes, so the birth/death ratio became more positive. California had 30k excess deaths in 2021, 45k in 2022.

Theres been alot of noise on social media of people moving back the last 2 years. I didnt notice until florida tik tok realtors were saying "californians are moving back" . This was like last june


Just like there was alot of noise during 2020-2021
Its reversed.
Gonna be interestiing to see next few years

[sopas ej]

From the Long Beach Post:

California’s population is growing again — but not in Long Beach

by Jeremiah Dobruck


The marine layer starts to burn off Monday morning above the bike and walking paths along the beach in Long Beach Monday, May 11, 2020. Photo by Thomas R. Cordova.

More people are moving to California and fewer people are leaving, a trend that helped grow the state’s population last year for the first time since 2019, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration announced Tuesday.

That trend, however, did not hold true for Long Beach. The city’s population shrank by about 800 people — or 0.2% — according to a report released by the chief demographer for California’s Department of Finance.

Long Beach’s population is now estimated to be 458,813.

The report said a rebound in legal immigration, fewer people leaving the state and more people moving here from other parts of the country helped drive up California’s population. The declining number of deaths since the peak of the pandemic also helped.

Only three of California’s 10 biggest cities — Long Beach, Oakland and San Jose — shrank in 2023.


Data from the State Department of Finance’s Demographic Research Unit shows estimated population changes in 2023.

One factor that likely kept more people from moving to Long Beach was its slower-than-average housing growth. The state added 115,933 units as a whole, but officials estimated only 631 new homes were built in Long Beach — a growth of just 0.3%. (Long Beach says that number is slightly higher, closer to 750.)

[...]

[sopas ej]

Here's the actual California Department of Finance report, which I think is very interesting:

STATE’S POPULATION INCREASES WHILE HOUSING GROWS
PER NEW STATE DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT

Some tidbits:

The population increased in 31 counties, largely in the Bay Area, Central Valley, and the Inland Empire. Los Angeles County and Orange County grew by 0.05 and 0.31 percent in population, respectively.

• Five counties had growth above one percent: Sutter (1.9 percent), Imperial (1.8 percent), Glenn (1.4 percent), Yuba (1.1 percent), and San Benito (1.1 percent), due to housing gains. The next largest in percentage growth were San Joaquin (0.96 percent), Madera (0.9 percent), Tulare (0.9 percent), Monterey (0.8 percent), and Merced (0.7 percent) counties.

• Nine of the ten Counties with populations over 1 million saw increases in population comprising 72 percent of the state’s total population. Riverside County led with an increase of 13,800.

County housing highlights include:

• Yuba had the highest housing growth (2.0 percent) of all counties, followed by: Placer, Madera, Butte, San Benito, Glenn, Tulare, Yolo, Riverside, and Solano.

• Eleven counties gained housing at or above 1.0 percent.

• Ranked by net housing gains, Los Angeles (21,698), San Diego (5,720), Unincorporated Riverside County (2,458), San Francisco (2,277), and Oakland (1,972) added the most housing units in 2023.

• Larger densely populated urban areas built most of the multi-family housing throughout the state. Los Angeles led the state gaining 14,207 multi-family units, comprising 65.5 percent of their net housing growth, followed by San Diego (4,255 for 74.4 percent), San Francisco (2,019 for 88.7 percent), and Oakland (1,674 for 84.9 percent).

• Conversely, single family housing is more likely to be built further inland in typically more suburban cities. Cities with a high proportion of single-family growth include Roseville (1,315 for 96.3 percent), Menifee (1,180 for 100 percent), Bakersfield (1,074 for 89.4 percent), and Fresno (963 for 65.8 percent). Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) are included in the single family category of housing and comprised 19.7 percent of the state’s new housing, adding 22,802 units.

[chris08876]

That's great news. Yeah if the state can live up to its housing goals and continue to be aggressive when it comes to housing, it'll continue to grow. That's the big key driver of growth... housing. Its why folks leave in the first place. Too expensive to live! Not enough housing... not enough inventory for folks actually seeking to settle down without paying ridiculous prices due to low inventory.

Those Cali metros in theory should be having tremendous booms just due to the demand. If they build... good things will happen. Just up to the state to make the framework feasible and encourage development. If they make it hard and fight tooth and nail when it comes to everything, and allow the NIMBYS in Laguna Beach and Long Beach and Snob Hill in SF to say no to everything, bad things will happen. But if they think towards the future, with the prosperity of the common man, woman and dog in mind... good things will happen!

Frankly, Los Angeles should be booming. Imagine 50 to 80k units a year being built! Now that would be something. City is so expensive yet I bet everyone and their mother wants to live there. Would be nice. The American Tokyo should be booming is all I'm saying... tons of potential.

[Chisouthside]

I know of a few people from the Bay area that preferred to make a move to central valley cities than to move to arizona or texas.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by kittyhawk28

There's an interesting divergence between the Northern and the Southern parts of the state. Calculating from the chart, Greater LA/SoCal region grew by around 35000 people to 18.42 million people, while the Bay Area still lost over -10000 people to 7.58 million people during 2023. It's a bit unusual since for the past 15-20 years the Bay Area/Norcal had a stronger economy and much faster growth than Greater LA/Socal, but it seems remote work hit the Bay Area much harder, especially since its economy is reliant on tech. Remains to be seen if this trend lasts, but interesting nonetheless.

The population losses in the Bay Area are likely the result of the tech recession.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

I know of a few people from the Bay area that preferred to make a move to central valley cities than to move to arizona or texas.

I'd imagine most folks in California would rather stay there. I mean going from arguably a superior state both in climate, topography, economic prowess to an arguably inferior and boring state that is not California.

That's part of the issue, the brain drain and people drain. Not that its significant but every loss of a person is a loss for the state. Factor that in throughout the years and that's a lot of lost tax revenue for the state. Its why retention, long term retention is key. And this goes for any state really.

Granted you have folks that move for various reasons, sometimes personal, sometimes opportunity... but the goal of any state should be retention. With housing, if they can increase that, and maybe do anything else that can aid COL, cost of living, long term, it might help to increase retention and even attract newcomers. And its clear that anything that would aid COL will no doubt increase the states coffers and population. The demand is there... a ton of it.

And opportunity for businesses, that too! Why the hell should folks go to Texas or the South... when they can stay in Cali.

If the state has a strong environment for future prosperity, on the individual and business level... folks will stay. Across all wealth sectors.

Frankly, the middle and lower classes need a ton of support and this is where the housing should truly be focused on. For the future generations and not the old guard. Ideally!

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by LA21st

Theres been alot of noise on social media of people moving back the last 2 years. I didnt notice until florida tik tok realtors were saying "californians are moving back" . This was like last june


Just like there was alot of noise during 2020-2021
Its reversed.
Gonna be interestiing to see next few years

Every thread about California eventually got locked since people from outside the state were so mad that we lost population/three Rite Aid stores closed . In the end I think it was like 350k or something left the state and a lot of them already returned.

Originally Posted by chris08876

I'd imagine most folks in California would rather stay there. I mean going from arguably a superior state both in climate, topography, economic prowess to an arguably inferior and boring state that is not California.

Well yeah, the humidity sucks. I moved to where I am now because the bay area was so expensive, although that was pre-covid so I have bragging rights. It's really easy to move to a place that's about half as expensive as well, I don't know why more Californians did it till now (moving to a cheap part of the state).
The whole move from SF to Sac thing has been pretty common and has been happening since at least the 80s.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by TWAK

=

Well yeah, the humidity sucks. I moved to where I am now because the bay area was so expensive, although that was pre-covid so I have bragging rights. It's really easy to move to a place that's about half as expensive as well, I don't know why more Californians did it till now (moving to a cheap part of the state).
The whole move from SF to Sac thing has been pretty common and has been happening since at least the 80s.

Its a beautiful region, Sacramento.

I sort of like Modesto. From a city layout point of view, sort of reminds me of a Midwest layout. Just a blob of urbanity and a separation via farmland until the next enclave of Turlock.

The whole Stanislaus County is beautiful. Yeah if one can land a good opportunity out there, it looks like an ideal area for Cali, at least in these times with prices and all.

I've seen some homes there, we are talking 3000 sq-ft, go for less than 550k. That in some respects is a better price than many parts of NJ. More bang for the buck. Unsure how strong the local economy is there but I suppose between Stockton and Modesto, plenty of opportunity.

With all that said though, hopefully the Cali housing push will really drive growth in the actual big player metros. Bay Area, LA County as examples; versus just stagnation and than people flocking else wear. I'd like to see the bigger cities boom.

[BnaBreaker]

Also, a lot of people who ran off to suburban Huntsville or wherever to 'escape the high taxes' probably had a sudden realization as to what that entails and were like... 'oh okay, I see, I changed my mind.'

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The population losses in the Bay Area are likely the result of the tech recession.

It's why I had to leave. I was planning on being there for a few years but the tech industry is pretty tepid and looking to stay that way for a while.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by TWAK

Every thread about California eventually got locked since people from outside the state were so mad that we lost population/three Rite Aid stores closed . In the end I think it was like 350k or something left the state and a lot of them already returned.


Well yeah, the humidity sucks. I moved to where I am now because the bay area was so expensive, although that was pre-covid so I have bragging rights. It's really easy to move to a place that's about half as expensive as well, I don't know why more Californians did it till now (moving to a cheap part of the state).
The whole move from SF to Sac thing has been pretty common and has been happening since at least the 80s.

Now theyre furious about this.
Theyre just angry, miserable people.
Wait until they realize how temporary covid stuff really was.

Theres some florida youtube channel and theyre in complete denial people are leaving florida.
Its their entire personality.