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  #441  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2020, 7:18 PM
psychlotron psychlotron is offline
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I think there may be a significance, maybe just psychological, to Austin reaching 1 million population in city limits while also entering the top 10 nationally. Milestones like that would likely contribute to the momentum of the long-speculated Austin - San Antonio CSA.
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  #442  
Old Posted Jun 17, 2020, 7:26 PM
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The following are all below 600,000 in city proper population as of July 1, 2019 (U.S. Census):

#30 Baltimore
#31 Milwaukee
#36 Sacramento
#37 Atlanta
#38 Kansas City, MO
#42 Miami
#46 Minneapolis
#48 Tampa
#50 New Orleans
#53 Cleveland
#64 Cincinnati
#65 St. Louis
#66 Pittsburgh
#71 Orlando
#73 Newark, NJ
#115 Salt Lake City
#142 Fort Lauderdale, FL
#143 Providence, RI
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  #443  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2020, 6:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBoot View Post
That has been coming for some time. Nonetheless, I don't put too much stock in city populations. A true record of how massive a "city" is would be to analyze its metro (and even its CSA - if applicable).

Austin might become the nation's tenth largest city (proper) soon. However, it's the nation's 29th largest market (by metro population) according to the U.S. Census 2019 estimates.

Conversely, according to the same source, Atlanta is the nation's 37th largest "city." But, its metro is ranked #9 (CSA is #11).
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Originally Posted by urbancore View Post
lost a $20 bet once on that. Dude told me Atlanta had less than a million people in the city proper. I thought for sure he was wrong. This was long before smart phones of course.

I'll never think of Austin as a top 10 city, its very misleading. NYC has 4 boroughs that are FAR larger than Austin.

I can't take someone seriously who mentions Austin is anywhere near a top 10 city.
San Jose is a perfect example of why city versus metro population matters. I would never consider San Jose to be a bigger city than Austin, and even though it has a larger population than San Francisco does, it's much less of a city than both San Francisco and Austin are. Round Rock is a position to pass Waco, if it hasn't done it already, but Waco is clearly more of a city than Round Rock is, even if Round Rock has more urban options available to it being closer to Austin.
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  #444  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2020, 3:47 PM
paul78701 paul78701 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by psychlotron View Post
I think there may be a significance, maybe just psychological, to Austin reaching 1 million population in city limits while also entering the top 10 nationally. Milestones like that would likely contribute to the momentum of the long-speculated Austin - San Antonio CSA.
Yep. Entering the top ten and/or going over 1 million garners eyeballs and attention. Therein lies the significance. It's easy, free advertising for the city and region.
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  #445  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2020, 6:04 PM
lonewolf lonewolf is offline
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The Austin-San Antonio CSA is not a maybe. It will happen 2040~

Austin and San Marcos are crawling towards each other. San Antonio and New Braunfels are nearly there if not already.
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  #446  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2020, 10:35 PM
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Urbanization between Austin & San Marcos is almost equivalent to that of San Antonio to New Braunfels. However, the growth between Austin & San Marcos cannot truthfully be described as "crawling." If I'm not mistaken, Hays county is at least the second fastest growing county in Austin's metro area (I don't have the current data in front of me). But, it's growing faster than the gap between SA & New Braunfels.
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  #447  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2020, 7:18 AM
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I'm in Kyle. I think we just hit 50k, and we're supposed to hit 100k by 2040. It's exploding down here.
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  #448  
Old Posted Jun 19, 2020, 1:18 PM
lonewolf lonewolf is offline
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Originally Posted by ILUVSAT View Post
Urbanization between Austin & San Marcos is almost equivalent to that of San Antonio to New Braunfels. However, the growth between Austin & San Marcos cannot truthfully be described as "crawling." If I'm not mistaken, Hays county is at least the second fastest growing county in Austin's metro area (I don't have the current data in front of me). But, it's growing faster than the gap between SA & New Braunfels.
from a geographic advancement point of view they are literally crawling TYVM
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  #449  
Old Posted Aug 10, 2020, 7:18 AM
paul78701 paul78701 is offline
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Austin officially pops onto list of U.S. cities with 1 million residents or more:
https://austin.culturemap.com/news/c...ast-1-million/
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  #450  
Old Posted Aug 10, 2020, 12:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by psychlotron View Post
I think there may be a significance, maybe just psychological, to Austin reaching 1 million population in city limits while also entering the top 10 nationally. Milestones like that would likely contribute to the momentum of the long-speculated Austin - San Antonio CSA.
Legal definitions for CSA and MSA should be included in this discussion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metrop...atistical_area
MSA is based upon counties in most of the USA, and upon townships in New England. A central county is a county in which 50% of its population lives in urban areas of at least 10,000 in population, or where a population of 5,000 are located in a single urban area of at least 10,000 in population where that urban area is split between more than one county. Additional surrounding counties, known as outlying counties, can be included in the MSA if these counties have strong social and economic ties to the central counties as measured by commuting and employment. Outlying counties are included in the MSA if 25% of the workers living in the county work in the central county or counties or, conversely, 25% of the employment in the county is held by workers who live in the central county or counties. All counties in a MSA must be contiguous, and a county can only be included within one MSA.

The key statistic to be met for a county to be included within a MSA is 25% of the workers working in counties they do not live in, commuting across county lines.

With CSA that key statistic to be met is 15% of the workers commuting between MSAs, or other OMB defined statistical areas.
It is going to be a long time before 15% of the workers in Austin's MSA will be commuting to work in San Antonio's MSA because the central cities with 50% of the population of the MSA are so far apart.
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  #451  
Old Posted Aug 10, 2020, 2:30 PM
ATXboom ATXboom is offline
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Originally Posted by electricron View Post
Legal definitions for CSA and MSA should be included in this discussion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metrop...atistical_area
MSA is based upon counties in most of the USA, and upon townships in New England. A central county is a county in which 50% of its population lives in urban areas of at least 10,000 in population, or where a population of 5,000 are located in a single urban area of at least 10,000 in population where that urban area is split between more than one county. Additional surrounding counties, known as outlying counties, can be included in the MSA if these counties have strong social and economic ties to the central counties as measured by commuting and employment. Outlying counties are included in the MSA if 25% of the workers living in the county work in the central county or counties or, conversely, 25% of the employment in the county is held by workers who live in the central county or counties. All counties in a MSA must be contiguous, and a county can only be included within one MSA.

The key statistic to be met for a county to be included within a MSA is 25% of the workers working in counties they do not live in, commuting across county lines.

With CSA that key statistic to be met is 15% of the workers commuting between MSAs, or other OMB defined statistical areas.
It is going to be a long time before 15% of the workers in Austin's MSA will be commuting to work in San Antonio's MSA because the central cities with 50% of the population of the MSA are so far apart.

What about people who live in San Marcos (Austin MSA) and work in New Braunfels (SA MSA) and vice versa? Would they count? ...I guess I don't see distance as the key barrier to CSA but rather proportion of population that must cross-commute from either metro. We are talking about over 300K people at 15%
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  #452  
Old Posted Aug 10, 2020, 3:27 PM
Armybrat Armybrat is offline
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When my family moved to Austin in January, 1959, I recall that the population signs at the city limits said 182,000.

And there was no “metro” area.
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  #453  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2020, 5:28 AM
JoninATX JoninATX is offline
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Looks like the Austin area housing market was even hotter this year than previous years. I also suspect growth hasn't slowed down much if any at all.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sta...emplate=ampart
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  #454  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2020, 5:34 AM
JoninATX JoninATX is offline
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Originally Posted by lonewolf View Post
The Austin-San Antonio CSA is not a maybe. It will happen 2040~

Austin and San Marcos are crawling towards each other. San Antonio and New Braunfels are nearly there if not already.
Give it 10 yrs. As taxes continue to climb in states like California, New York and Illinois we'll start seeing even more people flock here.
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  #455  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2020, 8:04 AM
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Lightbulb

Quote:
Originally Posted by ATXboom View Post
What about people who live in San Marcos (Austin MSA) and work in New Braunfels (SA MSA) and vice versa? Would they count? ...I guess I don't see distance as the key barrier to CSA but rather proportion of population that must cross-commute from either metro. We are talking about over 300K people at 15%
15% of all the workers in one MSA working in a completely different MSA.

For example, Dallas and Tarrant Counties lie immediately adjacent to each other. Travis and Bexar Counties have 2 counties in between them directly, Hays and Comal Counties with 2 other counties Caldwell and Guadalupe just to the east of the first two.
Austin's MSA includes 5 counties - Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis, and Williamson Counties.
San Antonio's MSA includes 8 counties - Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina, and Wilson Counties.

Because there are two counties lying between Travis and Bexar Counties, instead of crossing a single county line as in DFW, there would be three county lines to cross. Technically zero feet across a single county line vs 65 highway miles across three county lines along I-35.

To be frank, if there was just one county between Travis and Bexar County, I could see a single CSA being formed between the two MSAs. But with two counties in between, and with at least an hour driving time, getting to that 15% commute will be difficult.
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  #456  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2020, 2:23 PM
Novacek Novacek is offline
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Originally Posted by electricron View Post
15% of all the workers in one MSA working in a completely different MSA.

For example, Dallas and Tarrant Counties lie immediately adjacent to each other. Travis and Bexar Counties have 2 counties in between them directly, Hays and Comal Counties with 2 other counties Caldwell and Guadalupe just to the east of the first two.
Austin's MSA includes 5 counties - Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis, and Williamson Counties.
San Antonio's MSA includes 8 counties - Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina, and Wilson Counties.

Because there are two counties lying between Travis and Bexar Counties, instead of crossing a single county line as in DFW, there would be three county lines to cross. Technically zero feet across a single county line vs 65 highway miles across three county lines along I-35.

To be frank, if there was just one county between Travis and Bexar County, I could see a single CSA being formed between the two MSAs. But with two counties in between, and with at least an hour driving time, getting to that 15% commute will be difficult.
That's not entirely accurate.

MSAs are combined based on employment interchange from _anywhere in the MSA_ to anywhere in the other MSA. So someone who lives in (rapidly growing) Hays County and works in Comal (crossing a single county line) contributes. And vice versa. Because Hays is in Austin's MSA and Comal is in SA's.

In fact, once we're to the point of discussing CSAs, the interior county divisions are basically meaningless. Austin could be a single contiguous county from Georgetown to San Marcos, and it wouldn't make a difference. What matters is the population distribution within the MSA and its commuting patterns.


Also, it's a sum of both directions (meaning it's 15% of a theoretical total of 200%). I don't think it's imminent, but with the infill growth in Hays/Comal it's certainly not impossible.
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  #457  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2020, 4:09 PM
lonewolf lonewolf is offline
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Originally Posted by JoninATX View Post
Give it 10 yrs. As taxes continue to climb in states like California, New York and Illinois we'll start seeing even more people flock here.
i agree, looks like the trend has accelerated
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  #458  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2020, 8:29 PM
StoOgE StoOgE is offline
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Originally Posted by lzppjb View Post
I'm in Kyle. I think we just hit 50k, and we're supposed to hit 100k by 2040. It's exploding down here.
I grew up in Niederwald but went to school in Buda/Kyle - I rightfully grew up in the middle of nowhere country, and its now just a city.
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  #459  
Old Posted Apr 16, 2021, 2:57 PM
paul78701 paul78701 is offline
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Just a quick thread bump as the annual population estimates will start rolling out in about 2.5 weeks:
https://www.census.gov/programs-surv.../schedule.html

It will be interesting to see what (if any) effect the beginning months of the pandemic may have had on the numbers.
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  #460  
Old Posted May 5, 2021, 5:19 AM
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2020 Metro numbers are starting to come out. We are slightly behind Pittsburgh at #29 largest metro. We would have passed Pittsburgh since the census was taken.

Quote:
The population in the five-county Austin metro jumped to an estimated 2,295,303 people as of July 1, 2020, according to U.S. Census Bureau figures released May 4. That was an increase of 3% from the prior year, the fastest population growth among metros with at least 1 million people.
https://www.bizjournals.com/austin/n...opulation.html
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