Hamilton created 32,075 new jobs in 2017 but economy is moderating
Hamilton’s economy peaked in 2017 and has been tailing off with more moderate growth since then, the Conference Board of Canada says in a new report.
https://www.thespec.com/news-story/9...is-moderating/
Hamilton's economy peaked in 2017 and has been tailing off with more moderate growth since then, the Conference Board of Canada says in a new report.
The Metropolitan Outlook report that was released yesterday says real GDP growth in Hamilton hit a 17-year high last year at 3.6 per cent, "but this feat will not be repeated in the near term, as economic growth is forecast to moderate to 2.6 per cent this year and to 1.9 per cent in 2019.
"Although economic growth in Hamilton is moderating, the (census metropolitan area) will still be a growth leader among major Canadian cities this year, ranking behind only Montreal and Winnipeg," the board says.
The local economy has seen a lot of construction activity and a vibrant real estate sector — up until early this year when government measures to slow down escalating prices kicked in along with rising interest rates. As well, there has been a rebounding steel industry in defiance of American tariffs — at least among large steel companies such as Stelco.
The board said, "Hamilton's all-important steel industry continues to face uncertainty, but high steel prices are mitigating some of the impact from tariffs imposed by the United States."
There was a record-breaking 32,075 net new jobs in 2017, but the conference board is predicting the labour market to shed about 3,050 jobs this year and next.
"It helps reinforce the fact that we have been on a pretty good run over the past few years," said Keanin Loomis, CEO of the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce. "You look at the numbers and they are pretty superb."
He feels two things are essential to continue growth — the construction on the $1-billion LRT project, or some similar construction-intensive project, and the elimination of the 25 per cent tariff on steel exports to the U.S.
The prediction that the local economy will moderate, he said, "points to the need to boost investment by doing something like building the LRT project. I think a billion-dollar infusion into the economy will help us maintain the growth figures that we have been able to experience over the past few years."
The tariffs that were imposed in the summer continue even though a deal to replace NAFTA has been struck between Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. More recently, Stelco reported very strong third-quarter results largely because of high steel prices. But Loomis says smaller players have not done nearly as well.
McMaster University business professor Marvin Ryder says steelmakers — both large and small — will come to feel negative repercussions of the tariffs if they stay in place into next year.
Ryder also noted that municipal predictions by the conference board have a much higher margin of error than national numbers, and can be swayed by unforeseen developments such as political decisions by governments in Canada and the U.S.
"It's very difficult making predictions because you really don't know what lies ahead," he said.
Conference board spokesperson Alan Arcand says moderating economic growth this year and next after strong growth in 2017 "is a trend across Canada. So Hamilton is not alone."
2017
3.6 per cent: Economic growth
418,000: Total employment
4.9 per cent: Unemployment rate
$48,707: Household income per capita
787,000: Population
2,893: Housing starts
2018
2.6 per cent: Economic growth
413,000: Total employment
4.9 per cent: Unemployment rate
$49,172: Household income per capita
796,000: Population
3,253: Housing starts
2019
1.9 per cent: Economic growth
415,000: Total employment
4.8 per cent: Unemployment rate
$50,040: Household income per capita
805,000: Population
2,820: Housing starts
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