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  #181  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2014, 4:57 AM
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Originally Posted by craneSpotter View Post
3. The LNG companies will have rather small offices in Vancouver (there is no ongoing exploration and likely little expansion) - they say 100-250 employees each. So, counting the spinoff jobs in engineering, financial and legal I guess I would hope there is enough demand for space to absorb what they are/will build DT over the next few years. That is if 3-4 plants go ahead.
As was explained at a recent NAIOP event, much of the jobs are already taking place elsewhere: Calgary, London UK, etc., where the real skill-sets lie. Yes, some jobs will be placed in Vancouver, but not nearly as many as people would hope or like.
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  #182  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2014, 6:45 AM
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Originally Posted by craneSpotter View Post
3. The LNG companies will have rather small offices in Vancouver (there is no ongoing exploration and likely little expansion) - they say 100-250 employees each. So, counting the spinoff jobs in engineering, financial and legal I guess I would hope there is enough demand for space to absorb what they are/will build DT over the next few years. That is if 3-4 plants go ahead.
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Originally Posted by s211 View Post
As was explained at a recent NAIOP event, much of the jobs are already taking place elsewhere: Calgary, London UK, etc., where the real skill-sets lie. Yes, some jobs will be placed in Vancouver, but not nearly as many as people would hope or like.
Is this the right way to go, keeping all the jobs in Calgary? I was hoping that the LNG boom would bring more head offices to Vancouver and increase overall wages, triggering a feedback loop--more VC and more head offices, more people coming here to make money.

Instead, I think we'll continue to be a city for people who have made money elsewhere. Pity.

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Originally Posted by craneSpotter View Post
However, if a few plants go ahead the NDP don't have much hope of winning the next election... unless some kind of 'event' happens to disgrace the BC Libs.
Why are you so sure that the NDP will lose in 2017 if LNG exploration is successful? John Horgan is pro-energy and doesn't have the old-guard stink of Adrian Dix or Mike Farnworth. If he's smart enough to attack the BC Liberals' scandals (like BC Rail), cuts to MSP, Pharmacare, ICBC and Translink, plus their strong-arming of public school teachers, and if he can do this without looking like he's too close to the unions or environmentalists, The Liberals' victories are not exactly decisive; this is not like the prairies, where the Alberta PCs and Saskatchewan Party are literally invincible.

Anyway, this is not the politics subforums, so I will stop here.
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  #183  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2014, 6:58 AM
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Originally Posted by s211 View Post
As was explained at a recent NAIOP event, much of the jobs are already taking place elsewhere: Calgary, London UK, etc., where the real skill-sets lie. Yes, some jobs will be placed in Vancouver, but not nearly as many as people would hope or like.
Yupp, meanwhile high-tech expansion continues in Vancouver bringing real jobs to the city. Job creation in general is actually quite good in Vancouver and has been over the last few years, going off of the most recent Stats Can numbers. If LNG busts, which isn't entirely unlikely, it will hurt BC's future outlooks but I don't know if it will have as significant a negative impact on Vancouver. It would obviously be nice if LNG was a boon to the province, and created a lot of jobs in Vancouver, but if that isn't going to happen then at least one can take comfort in the fact that the city has not vested its future in LNG. Unlike what the government in Victoria seems to have done.
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  #184  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2014, 7:45 AM
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The thing about BC is, it is a lot more than just Vancouver.

Even if LNG adds only 500 to 1000 office jobs in Vancouver through 4 or 5 projects directly (which is still nothing to sneeze at) it will also add many spin off jobs in the metro-area.

The real winning locations will be the communities that the LNG facilities themselves will be located in, supplying many full time permanent good salary positions. And again, such industrial complexes will also add spin off jobs as well (blue and white collar).

It is annoying how people always only think about Vancouver.

And there are plenty of risky unstable industries that Vancouver has vested its future into, welcome to the real world. Vancouver just has the benefit (thanks to its size) of having a more diversified economy, but a crash in real-estate prices could devastate the city, much more than other locations in the province
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  #185  
Old Posted Dec 1, 2014, 8:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Metro-One View Post
The thing about BC is, it is a lot more than just Vancouver.

Even if LNG adds only 500 to 1000 office jobs in Vancouver through 4 or 5 projects directly (which is still nothing to sneeze at) it will also add many spin off jobs in the metro-area.

The real winning locations will be the communities that the LNG facilities themselves will be located in, supplying many full time permanent good salary positions. And again, such industrial complexes will also add spin off jobs as well (blue and white collar).

It is annoying how people always only think about Vancouver.

And there are plenty of risky unstable industries that Vancouver has vested its future into, welcome to the real world. Vancouver just has the benefit (thanks to its size) of having a more diversified economy, but a crash in real-estate prices could devastate the city, much more than other locations in the province
This is a good point. The benefits in Vancouver are minimal compared to the enormous benefits to some of the communities in the northern part of the province that currently have high unemployment rates. The decline in the forestry industry (as well as a few other resource based industries) has been hard in a lot of regions outside of Vancouver.

You don't notice it unless you leave the Lower Mainland, but a lot of people in BC are frustrated with how dominant Vancouver is in the province. I don't blame them. If you think about it, BC is one of the most unipolar provinces, and easily the most unipolar of the most populated provinces. The top 6 largest cities in BC are all in the Lower Mainland. Kelowna and Victoria don't even come close. Even in Ontario, where Toronto is "the centre of the known universe" :roll eyes: there is at least Ottawa to balance it out.

In a nutshell, who cares if it creates jobs in Vancouver... There are plenty of jobs being created there. What matters more is that jobs will be created in some of the smaller struggling communities.
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  #186  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 3:13 AM
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First shoe has dropped

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Originally Posted by craneSpotter View Post
Thanks! Promising info. Import terminal to be located in Fukushima beside future 1200 MW gas generating facility.
Some announcement, petronas has postponed their decision. Cost estimates coming in to high, LNG prices Falling with price of oil, this project is in trouble. If they have to make serious cost reductions could be a total resizing of the plant/pipeline and a couple year delay.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle21923667/
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  #187  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 3:35 AM
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I bet the projects have missed the window. Even before the drop in prices (LNG has traditionally been priced by energy value equivalent to oil) it was iffy BC could make the window. If I remember correctly the market should tighten up in the middle of the next decade again.
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  #188  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 6:01 AM
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Well, firstly the current short-term oil price blip (6 months - 2 years) really does not have much to do with same. Petronas proposed LNG facility would not come on stream until 2019 in any event. That is another 4+ years.

Secondly, most LNG contracts linked to the JCC are oil-indexed yet they are typically S-Curve contracts. IOW, the price of oil has a basement of roughly $45 per barrel and a ceiling of $85 per barrel in these LNG contracts in order to protect and hedge both the seller and buyer.

And these are long-term 30+ year facilities. Not dependent upon todays short-term oil price flux.

Most LNG facilities are also contracted out for 80% - 90% of their capacity. Leaves another 10% - 20% available for spot sales based upon the then prevailing market.

In any event, none of the foregoing matters much to the proposed Petronas LNG facility as both Petronas and its partners are all end-users to boot. Unlike Shell or Chevron which are not-end users.

Petronas also intends to pool some of the production for its other existing contractual obligations.

I always assumed that a firm FID was not in the cards this December. Yet I certainly suspected that they would go for a soft FID. BTW, December, 2014 has always been the timeline date for their FID since the get go a few years back.

The reason? Petronas still requires its federal CEAA environment certificate. The 365 day clock stopped back in May (day 167) and only recently restarted. Means that the CEAA certificate will not be issued until sometime in April, 2015.

Cannot proceed with hard FID until that has been received. Albeit, it has been reported that they are quite confident that they will receive same based upon media reports. And since then they have satisfied the outstanding juvenile salmon issue with respect to Flora Bank (utilizing a 1.6 km suspension bridge instead of trestle requiring no dredging that would disturb the sensitive eelgrass beds on Flora Bank).

Petronas is also now apparently completely satisfied with the BC government with regards to all aspects under their control. Even the BC preem and LNG industry minister Coleman were mentioned in their press release today confirming same.

Another major current obstacle appears that Petronas wants the bidding contractors to sharpen their pencils after relatively recently receiving their bids.

Quote:
Financial Post - “It’s both fiscal and regulatory certainties that we’re trying to run to ground here,” Pacific NorthWest LNG president Michael Culbert said in a telephone interview following the announcement.
In obvious reference to the delayed CEAA environmental certificate and construction bids higher than expected.

But this tidbit certainly stands out:

Quote:
Financial Post - “We still want to move this forward at a very aggressive pace so we haven’t set a date forward on purpose,” Pacific NorthWest LNG president Michael Culbert said.
And will say one thing. Petronas has been quite aggressive from the get go - ever since they purchased Progress Energy.

Right now, I would wager that Petronas will make their FID sometime in mid-April, 2015. After they have received their CEAA certificate and finalized the financial terms with their contractors.

PS. When the head of Petronas late last week was quoted as saying that 75% of the checklist had been completed toward their FID, the other 25% obviously still remained outstanding.

Last edited by Stingray2004; Dec 4, 2014 at 6:14 AM.
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  #189  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 3:19 PM
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Originally Posted by jawagord View Post
Some announcement, petronas has postponed their decision. Cost estimates coming in to high, LNG prices Falling with price of oil, this project is in trouble. If they have to make serious cost reductions could be a total resizing of the plant/pipeline and a couple year delay.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle21923667/
Yup, certainly the delayed federal approval and a drop in oil prices give them reasons to see if they can't wring out a few more $$ from the province and demand more foreign workers. No doubt a drop in oil will have a downward pressure on all energy products and put all new large capital intensive projects on shaky ground.

Canada is a high cost environment (energy) for construction of energy infrastructure and it may take delayed projects and layoffs to bring down the rates.

China is expected to significantly ramp up LNG imports over the next ten years and surpass Japan as the world's largest importer, I have read that they have started construction on another 4-5 new LNG import terminals this year... somebody knows something... we'll see.

and on the heels of that....looks like oil will go down further. Canada may need the LNG terminals and the associated construction jobs more than ever....

Saudis escalate oil price war, sending crude slumping again

Dec 4, 2014 - Globe and Mail

Quote:
The moves are key to Canada, of course, given its reliance on oil production. Already, economists say, Canada can expect a small hit if the rout in the market is sustained.

It’s a tale of two economies, however, because Alberta would suffer while central Canada enjoys lower energy costs and the benefits of a currency sliding along with oil prices.

At a minimum, said chief currency strategist Camilla Sutton of Bank of Nova Scotia, today’s move by Saudi Arabia adds to the sentiment of lower oil prices for longer.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle21948473/
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Last edited by craneSpotter; Dec 4, 2014 at 4:03 PM.
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  #190  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 3:32 PM
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Originally Posted by s211 View Post
As was explained at a recent NAIOP event, much of the jobs are already taking place elsewhere: Calgary, London UK, etc., where the real skill-sets lie. Yes, some jobs will be placed in Vancouver, but not nearly as many as people would hope or like.
Yup, that's why I said 'small' offices in Vancouver. As explained before the LNG companies are consortiums of multi-national energy companies and will create (some have already) head offices in Vancouver for administration services. So, if 3-5 plants go ahead Vancouver would see ~2000+ jobs created downtown including spinoffs. Plus - thousands of jobs will be created during the years-long construction phase in Engineering etc. On the pipeline, gas exploration/drilling and supply end - stuff like engineering will mostly happen in Calgary where it is already established, but the majority of the (construction) jobs will still be here in BC.

The biggest impact will be the plant themselves, which will create thousands of ongoing production jobs in the northeast (export terminals) and northwest (NG supply) parts of the province.
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  #191  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 6:43 PM
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I was so happy when I saw gas at 116.9 this morning, which I haven't seen since before the Arab Spring. Then I opened today's paper...

I wonder how much this will impact carbon tax revenues. Will Christy's dream of replacing the Patullo, or Dianne Watts' dream of LRT, be delayed also?
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  #192  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2014, 7:41 PM
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I was so happy when I saw gas at 116.9 this morning, which I haven't seen since before the Arab Spring. Then I opened today's paper...

I wonder how much this will impact carbon tax revenues. Will Christy's dream of replacing the Patullo, or Dianne Watts' dream of LRT, be delayed also?
If anything it might raise revenues from the carbon tax. Lower prices in theory should increase demand and increased demand means more carbon tax collected. Worst case is it will be revenue neutral in all likelihood.
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  #193  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 2:58 AM
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I'm sure this office will expand even more in the years to come This office is just gravy (10 jobs to start heh) and about time they finally figured it out...

National Energy Board to open office in Lower Mainland for community outreach and pipeline inspections


Vancouver Sun - Dec 4, 2014

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Nat...394/story.html
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  #194  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2014, 6:42 PM
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Yup, certainly the delayed federal approval and a drop in oil prices give them reasons to see if they can't wring out a few more $$ from the province and demand more foreign workers.
So the drop in oil prices gives Petronas less cash to invest next year, so they want cheaper construction/engineeriing costs.

And, like mentioned, more foreign work:

Petronas wants engineering work for B.C. LNG venture to be shifted offshore

VANCOUVER — The Globe and Mail - Dec. 04 201

Quote:
Petronas plans to push contractors to shift more engineering work for a proposed B.C. liquefied natural gas venture to lower-cost centres offshore as the Malaysian energy giant squeezes suppliers.

Of the total $11.4-billion in estimated construction costs for the Petronas-led Pacific NorthWest LNG export terminal at Lelu Island, there would be $8-billion worth of imported goods and services spread over a five-year period....

...Engineering firms are expected to revise their plans with a view to greater input from “high-value engineering” offices in countries such as China and India, where labour costs for engineering work are lower than in North America and Europe. Firms wanting to do business with Petronas will be pressed to use their connections with Asian suppliers to get better deals for orders of raw materials.

Subcontractors will be asked to review their costs for an array of building plans, ranging from a work camp in Port Edward to a suspension bridge designed to avoid harming salmon habitat in Flora Bank. Drilling costs are being scrutinized at the Petronas-led North Montney Joint Venture, which has huge natural gas reserves in northeastern British Columbia.

An estimated 88 per cent of the $3.4-billion in project spending in Canada would originate from Canadian suppliers of engineering-related services, mostly from British Columbia....

...“We believe that the deferral is more of a negotiating tool than a reassessment of the viability of the project,” TD Securities Inc. analyst Scott Treadwell said in a research note Thursday.
So , sounds most of the Canadian sourced engineering will be BC based, which is good news. No surprise about the majority of the materials being sourced overseas...cheaper and these are coastal plants so easy/cheap shipping. I still understand there will be some fabrication in North Van as well as on-site.

Also, looks like they will squeeze the Alberta gas well drillers and pipe layers to lower their prices.
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  #195  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2014, 5:41 PM
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A lot of things are changing in the Asian gas market that are pressuring the economics of BC LNG. On the plus side maybe the oil pipeline jobs will start looking better to Crusty as her LNG dreams go poof.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/...sey120614.html

The huge gas export deals that Russia struck with China in May and October—with an agreed-upon price ranging from $8-10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu)—has likely capped investors’ expectations of Chinese natural gas prices at around $10-11 per mmBtu, a level which would make shipping natural gas from Canada to Asia uneconomic.

At these prices, not even British Columbia’s new Liquefied Natural Gas Income Tax Act—which has halved the post-payout tax rate to 3.5% and proposes reducing corporate income tax to 8% from 11%—can make Canadian natural gas globally competitive.

These tax credits are too little, too late, because Canada is years behind Australia, Russia, and Qatar’s gas projects. This means there’s just too much uncertainty about future profit margins to commit the vast amount of capital that will be needed to make Canadian LNG a reality.
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  #196  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2014, 6:45 PM
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Negative comments from Alberta. We must be getting close.
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  #197  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2014, 2:36 AM
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Negative comments from Alberta. We must be getting close.
I know, most of the comments from Alberta are hilarious and are dripping with a bizarre attitude of hoping for failure.
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  #198  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2014, 2:51 AM
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I know, most of the comments from Alberta are hilarious and are dipping with a bizarre attitude of hoping for failure.
Ya. As if BCs LNG success comes at Calgary's expense.
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  #199  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2014, 5:31 AM
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I wouldn't say it is that. It is the BC attitude that this would be easy. In Alberta we have lived this for a long time, and know even vast resources are hard to develop. Outside of the business press the attitude in BC seems to have been 'we're in the money!'.
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  #200  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2014, 5:33 AM
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I know, most of the comments from Alberta are hilarious and are dripping with a bizarre attitude of hoping for failure.
No doubt. Cannot get my head around same. Sound akin to some hard-core enviro Greens in the Metro Victoria area or some hard-left NDP types in east Vancouver.

Guess AB also has its fair share of enviro nutbars as well. Embarrassing for AB quite frankly.

To wit, the previous AB poster linked to an article that is wholly outta the mainstream and factually incorrect. I could respond to same but why bother. Hundreds of other global LNG articles out there, every day, that are also factually incorrect.

For example, Bill Gwozd of Ziff Energy Services of Calgary is renowned as a reputable NA natural gas specialist as well as an Asian LNG specialist who has prepared detailed reports on behalf of LNG proponents at the NEB. Very analytical stuff. Some of the best info out there. Not some poorly researched newspaper article.

Yet we get AB interlopers posting in this thread who deliberately attempt to both derail and mislead for some obvious nefarious purpose.

And, frankly, their ignorance and stupidity is bliss. Am not a type to ad hominem. But sometimes I have just gotta call em out.

Perhaps they are hard-core AB enviros? Perhaps they have some sort of strange grudge against BC for their perceived impressions against pipelines from AB to the coast?

Well they better think again. Just last week Insights West released an opinion poll of BCers and their attitudes of the Northern Gateway pipeline as well as KMs proposed twinning of the Trans Mountain pipeline.

Guess what? The majority of BCers do not oppose same. In fact, only 21% state that KMs TMP efinitely should not proceed. In that same vein, only 28% of BCers state that the NGP definitely should not proceed.

Again, some of the Albertans posting in this thread are either completely ignorant of LNG per se or have some other grudge against BC. Pity them and embarrassing for AB.
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