Manitoba Provincial Election | 2016

[Danny D Oh]

Originally Posted by esquire

Yeesh. At this point they might as well keep saying whatever comes to mind, maybe eventually something will catch on.

The most interesting part of this election is probably the internal politics of the provincial Liberals. Most of their competent staff have already found the lifeboats or are looking to hop into one ASAP. Rana wants to be a one woman army, and she's about to find out what that actually looks like. She's basically to the Liberals what Trump is to the Republicans, minus the billions of dollars and sycophants.

[bomberjet]

At this point, I've had it with the PC's. All they do is attack others, the NDP mostly. How about just say what you're going to do. Instead of "the NDP f'ed up". That's all the PC's have done is whine and moan about the NDP. It's old and tired. Just like Pallister.

Pretty much my vote will go to waste this year. I'll choose the "no good candidate" on my ballot.

[Urban recluse]

With good reason: The NDP has demonstrated a complete lack of respect for taxpayers. This needs to be thrown back at them in spades.

[bomberjet]

True, of course. But maybe move on a bit from the constant bashing though. On their website, every single thing is how bad the NDP is. They don't just talk about what the PC government would do. It's all about what the NDP has done or not done. I won't vote for that type of campaigning, when it's last as long as Pallister has been leader.

I'll say it again, I have no affiliation with any party. I would love for the PC's or Liberals to take over and make things utopian. I just don't see it with any of their current tactics. Liberals were wooing me a bit (slightly), but they're a mess is right.

Critics were saying that voter turnout will be extremely low this election because all the parties suck and there is no good outcome for Manitoba.

[Urban recluse]

I would argue the opposite: I think voter turnout will be significant because so many people are angry.

[Chrisforpm]

Originally Posted by Urban recluse

I would argue the opposite: I think voter turnout will be significant because so many people are angry.

I agree, I think voter turnout will be higher (well 60-65% which is sadly considered high). The general feeling I get from friends, family, coworkers is that they are angry and willing to go to the polls to take their frustrations out on the current govt. We shouldn't overlook the fact that Selinger is really disliked. Most people I talk to are willing to bite the bullet and vote PC just to kick the bums out for a term. Unfortunately any talk of the liberals becoming an alternative is fading fast, unless they can get their act together quick.

[bomberjet]

We will see. Don't forget Manitoba loves their NDP.

[YWG-RO]

Slim majority for PCs.

PC 31
NDP 24
Lib 2

[Urban recluse]

They have proven this in the past; this election, much like in Alberta, change is in the air.

[Chrisforpm]

Originally Posted by YWG-RO

Slim majority for PCs.

PC 31
NDP 24
Lib 2

I'm going to predict the following:

PC 37
NDP 16
LIB 4

The reason the PCs are so high is because we face a split opposition. They are going to dominate outside the city (polls have them around 60 to 15 a piece for the Libs and NDP). This gives them around 22 seats. Inside the city they are leading 40 to 27 for the NDP and 24 for the Libs. With these numbers they should get another 15 seats. Depending on the split between the liberals and NDP the PC numbers have the potential to get into the 40+ seat range.

[Danny D Oh]

PC 30
NDP 26
Lib 1 (maybe, more likely 0, Rana comes 3rd in River Heights)

PC's carry the rural vote, add a handful of city seats, NDP carries the city and north.

[Ando]

And Bokhari just keeps getting loopier and loopier. She's going to privatize liquor sales but turn fresh food marketing into a provincial crown corporation that would compete with fresh food markets like Neechii Commons. You can't make stuff like this up.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/spe...374302511.html

[Ando]

Originally Posted by Danny D Oh

PC 30
NDP 26
Lib 1 (maybe, more likely 0, Rana comes 3rd in River Heights)

PC's carry the rural vote, add a handful of city seats, NDP carries the city and north.

Probably much more realistic. PCs often have higher overall poll ratings because of their rural support but the city is often their nemesis.

[Chrisforpm]

Originally Posted by Ando

Probably much more realistic. PCs often have higher overall poll ratings because of their rural support but the city is often their nemesis.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/m...tion-1.3464068

The guy is pretty accurate. Plus the latest poll has the Tories ahead in Winnipeg by a large margin
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/pcs-gain-winnipeg/

[Andy6]

The NDP will be lucky to win 15 seats. The Liberals falling apart would probably make it worse for them overall, although it might give the NDP back a few Winnipeg seats that would have gone Tory if the Liberals had siphoned off enough NDP votes. Motivation for NDP voters is going to be at an all-time low (at least since 1988), so you can probably knock off a few points from whatever the poll numbers are showing.

If things go really wrong you could have the NDP down below 10. The situation reminds me of other clapped-out governments that got destroyed after being in office too long - Blakeney in Saskatchewan vs. Grant Devine and Hatfield in New Brunswick being shut out 58-0 by Frank McKenna. Manitoba is the least landslide-prone of all the provinces so it won't be quite on those epic proportions but by local standards it will be a rout.

[Ando]

well, we'll see. If the Liberal vote collapses, there are a lot of Liberals who wouldn't vote for Pallister. And there's still time for Pallister to make one of his patented bone-headed statements - although they're keeping a short leash on him. No question the NDP is in trouble but I wouldn't pin all your hopes on poll results, they don't always pan out, particularly recently.

[Chrisforpm]

Originally Posted by Ando

well, we'll see. If the Liberal vote collapses, there are a lot of Liberals who wouldn't vote for Pallister. And there's still time for Pallister to make one of his patented bone-headed statements - although they're keeping a short leash on him. No question the NDP is in trouble but I wouldn't pin all your hopes on poll results, they don't always pan out, particularly recently.

Polls suggest a 50/50 split in liberal voters. There is always the bandwagon effect as well. If people sense the PC's are gonna win they tend to vote with the party that has momentum. Clearly the PC's do at the moment.

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by Ando

And Bokhari just keeps getting loopier and loopier. She's going to privatize liquor sales but turn fresh food marketing into a provincial crown corporation that would compete with fresh food markets like Neechii Commons. You can't make stuff like this up.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/spe...374302511.html

The liberals don't deserve a single seat after deciding on Bokhari as leader, stay at home daughter Bokhari is about as unsuited to be premier as Dancing Gabe would be to be mayor.

What are Bokhari's qualifications anyway, has she ever held a paid job, what kind of education does she have?

I'm not sure if we have the tin man (Pallister), scarecrow'ess (Bokhari) and lion (Selinger) running or if it's the three stooges!

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

We will see. Don't forget Manitoba loves their NDP.

We will see. Don't forget Manitobans love getting stuff for free from the speNDP!

[cllew]

Originally Posted by rrskylar

What are Bokhari's qualifications anyway, has she ever held a paid job, what kind of education does she have?

Its interesting there is no real BIO for her on the Liberal party web site but I was able to find this about her work history. It appears she only had one job after graduating from Law School

She was a staff lawyer at the Carroll Law Office in Winnipeg.

As for here education here is the Wikipedia BIO;

Bokhari was born on a farm near Anola, Manitoba. As a student she attended the University of Manitoba where she obtained degrees in criminology and psychology. She then went on to complete a degree in law at Robson Hall, focusing on corporate commercial law. While completing her law degree, Bokhari was active in the Manitoba Law Students Association, serving as President in 2012.

Bokhari moved to Pakistan in 2002, living there with her family until she returned to Winnipeg in 2006. Her childhood home and family chicken farm were lost to fire in 2012.