Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread - Page 19

Taeolas · #**361** Posted **Sep 9, 2020, 6:49 PM**

Quote:

Unofficial figures released today from Elections New Brunswick indicate a 50 per cent jump from the previous election during two days of early voting in the country's first election since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The agency says a total of 133,000 people voted on Saturday and Tuesday, an increase of 45,000 from advance polling in 2018.

The total is about one third the number of people who voted in the last provincial election.

Hopefully this means the election will have a good overall turnout, despite the pandemic. I don't have time to go vote today, so I'll be out next Monday, hopefully not needing to wait long in lines to vote. I'm sure the good weather we had on Saturday and Today are helping.

JHikka · #**362** Posted **Sep 9, 2020, 6:54 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Hopefully this means the election will have a good overall turnout, despite the pandemic.

I think turnout will be more or less flat. Pandemic will scare some people away but will also provide some more free time for others to get out to vote. I don't think this current election is as energeizing for the public enough to push turnout higher, although I will gladly be willing to be proven wrong on this one.

lirette · #**363** Posted **Sep 9, 2020, 7:28 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I would be interested to hear what people think about the value of having star candidates have on the course of an election, at least at the local riding level.

For example, in Moncton, the PCs have two star candidates running - Greg Turner and Daniel Allain. Personally, I think Greg Turner is popular enough that this will push him over the top in terms of his election bid. Daniel Allain though is much less certain. His riding is traditionally Liberal (and largely francophone). Although he is francophone himself, I think the animus most francophones have for Blain Higgs will make this a difficult win for the Tories.

Thoughts?????

I'm interested to see how Mark Black does for the liberals...he might also fit the "star" candidate but is brand new to politics. Obviously a polished speaker and many would be familiar with him as he did inspirational speaking gigs at nearly every school, and many at workplaces. My understanding is that he has been going hard on door-to-doors for a few weeks.

Moncton Northwest was pretty close last time..

Also for the liberals in Miramichi they are running Josh Mccormack who is a linesman in the QMJHL, and played Junior A hockey locally, big member of the community.

adamuptownsj · #**364** Posted **Sep 9, 2020, 8:43 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lirette

I'm interested to see how Mark Black does for the liberals...he might also fit the "star" candidate but is brand new to politics. Obviously a polished speaker and many would be familiar with him as he did inspirational speaking gigs at nearly every school, and many at workplaces. My understanding is that he has been going hard on door-to-doors for a few weeks.

Moncton Northwest was pretty close last time..

Also for the liberals in Miramichi they are running Josh Mccormack who is a linesman in the QMJHL, and played Junior A hockey locally, big member of the community.

I don't think the Liberals are picking up anything other than S-L-M and maybe Conroy's Miramichi seat if the PCs end up around 40% and the Liberals 33%.

Marty_Mcfly · #**365** Posted **Sep 9, 2020, 9:44 PM**

September 9th Forecasting Projections

338 Canada

PC: 37.2%
LIB: 33.7%
GRN: 17.5%
PA: 7.6%
NDP: 3.1%

PC: 26 seats
LIB: 18 seats
GRN: 4 seats
PA: 1 seats
NDP: 0 seats

PC Majority

Lean Tossup

PC: 38%
LIB: 32%
GRN: 19%
PA: 7%
NDP: 4%

PC: 24 seats
LIB: 20 seats
GRN: 4 seats
PA: 1 seats
NDP: 0 seats

PC Minority

-----------

Interesting that LT has the PCs 1% above and the Liberals 2% below the 338 models but have the Liberals winning 2 more seats.

JonHiseler · #**366** Posted **Sep 10, 2020, 3:49 PM**

https://www.conservationcouncil.ca/w...rt_Sept8-1.pdf

New opinion poll from OraclePoll Research:

PCs: 42%
Liberals: 33%
Greens: 18%
NDP: 6%
PA: 2%

MonctonRad · #**367** Posted **Sep 10, 2020, 4:04 PM**

I doubt the PCs are at 42%. High 30s perhaps.

The PANB is certainly more than 2%. That number is way off. 5% is bare minimum for them.

I think it will be 50/50 whether it will be another PC minority or a PC majority. If it's a PC minority, then Higgs could be in some legislative trouble as I doubt the PANB will get more than 1-2 seats this time around. Higgs would have to get GRN support to govern, and Coon is a less natural bedfellow than Kris Austin. In this scenario, Higgs will have outfoxed himself.

BTW, is anyone else impressed by how well MacKenzie Thomason has performed as NDP leader in this election? He is only 23 years old, and was only serving as a placeholder party leader at the time the election was called, but he has shaken off any nerves he might have had, and has impressed me with his courage under the circumstances. I would never vote for him given philosophical differences, but kudos to him for greatly exceeding expectations.

lirette · #**368** Posted **Sep 10, 2020, 4:43 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

BTW, is anyone else impressed by how well MacKenzie Thomason has performed as NDP leader in this election? He is only 23 years old, and was only serving as a placeholder party leader at the time the election was called, but he has shaken off any nerves he might have had, and has impressed me with his courage under the circumstances. I would never vote for him given philosophical differences, but kudos to him for greatly exceeding expectations.

Yes absolutely,

I understand how someone on the right would likely never support NDP as they promise a lot and have a huge vision, similar to progressive democrats in the US like AOC, but I would love to see Thomason get a seat based on his performance alone so they could at least have a voice in the system with fresh ideas. If our electoral system was different than FPTP there would be a lot more NDP voters.... If you are part of a vulnerable community, a younger voter, student etc. You are not getting much of a voice with the PC's or really the liberals for that matter who essentially do the bare minimum to go left of the PC's.

Having the NDP's with 1 or 2 seats would give them enough momentum to wait for a wave of a new generation of voters in 5-10 years, who have shown to be far more active in politics.

lirette · #**369** Posted **Sep 10, 2020, 4:50 PM**

The PC's finally released their platform today, 4 days before election day after 100,000 already voted. 2018 turnout was 381,000

MonctonRad · #**370** Posted **Sep 10, 2020, 5:11 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lirette

I understand how someone on the right would likely never support NDP as they promise a lot and have a huge vision, similar to progressive democrats in the US like AOC, but I would love to see Thomason get a seat based on his performance alone so they could at least have a voice in the system with fresh ideas.

Well, partisanship should never get in the way of civil and constructive political discourse, and all voices should be heard. I may not agree with Thomason as far as his general political philosophy is concerned, but he obviously has talent, and he should be encouraged to run for the permanent party leadership. Perhaps some day he will have a chance to advance his agenda in the House.

Bishop2047 · #**371** Posted **Sep 10, 2020, 5:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonHiseler

https://www.conservationcouncil.ca/w...rt_Sept8-1.pdf

New opinion poll from OraclePoll Research:

PCs: 42%
Liberals: 33%
Greens: 18%
NDP: 6%
PA: 2%

Pretty small sample size but probably pretty in in-line with how the election will go. I agree with MonctonRad, PCs most likely don't end up with that anything in the 40% range.

Green Party of NB looks like they may end up being a big winner this election. Increase their seat total, Coon may end up being the face of the opposition until the Libs find a new leader, and they are in a way cementing themselves as the "third party" over the PA.

JHikka · #**372** Posted **Sep 10, 2020, 9:38 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Pretty small sample size but probably pretty in in-line with how the election will go. I agree with MonctonRad, PCs most likely don't end up with that anything in the 40% range.

It's possible if Liberal vote support deteriorates enough and PANB voters move (back) to PCs. Only one of five polls in the past few weeks has had PCs under 40 (Mainstreet's).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bishop2047

Green Party of NB looks like they may end up being a big winner this election. Increase their seat total, Coon may end up being the face of the opposition until the Libs find a new leader, and they are in a way cementing themselves as the "third party" over the PA.

I really don't think PA were seriously considered the third party over the Greens. Mostly a blip on the radar and some fortuitous timing.

JonHiseler · #**373** Posted **Sep 13, 2020, 11:11 AM**

One last poll from EKOS before the election in NB tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/sta...474817/photo/1

MonctonRad · #**374** Posted **Sep 13, 2020, 2:08 PM**

Interesting poll. Thanks for posting.

1) - I am very surprised to see the Tories polling so high in Moncton. With our large Acadian population, we tend to be at least a relative Liberal stronghold.
2) - It is a three way horserace in Freddy. Under the right circumstances, there could be a Green breakthrough in the legislature this election.
3) - The rest of the province is as to be expected.

Higgs is going to win the election. The only question is whether he will have a majority or a minority government. The outcome of the election really rests on what happens in Fredericton.

Since the election is tomorrow, I guess it's time to make predictions. This is what I personally expect:

PC - 26 seats (bare majority)
LIB - 18 seats
GRN - 4 seats
PA - 1 seat
NDP - 0 seats

JonHiseler · #**375** Posted **Sep 13, 2020, 2:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Interesting poll. Thanks for posting.

1) - I am very surprised to see the Tories polling so high in Moncton. With our large Acadian population, we tend to be at least a relative Liberal stronghold.
2) - It is a three way horserace in Freddy. Under the right circumstances, there could be a Green breakthrough in the legislature this election.
3) - The rest of the province is as to be expected.

Higgs is going to win the election. The only question is whether he will have a majority or a minority government. The outcome of the election really rests on what happens in Fredericton.

Since the election is tomorrow, I guess it's time to make predictions. This is what I personally expect:

PC - 26 seats (bare majority)
LIB - 18 seats
GRN - 4 seats
PA - 1 seat
NDP - 0 seats

My prediction is pretty similar to yours, only difference with mine being I think the Greens will squeeze out a win in Fredericton North.

Marty_Mcfly · #**376** Posted **Sep 13, 2020, 3:50 PM**

That's a good poll for the PCs, and the Greens will likely be very happy with their francophone region numbers. This does look like majority territory for the PCs, though it'll only be by a few seats.

Should be one more poll release this evening, as Forum usually throws down a late night (near midnight) report. If they were polling, and they likely were, they'll be the final data point.

Marty_Mcfly · #**377** Posted **Sep 13, 2020, 3:54 PM**

Mainstreet with a small sample size poll showing a very sizable lead for the PCs and the Greens at a healthy 21%

https://twitter.com/JosephAngolano/s...71933043056641

SevenSquared · #**378** Posted **Sep 13, 2020, 4:18 PM**

That Mainstreet poll has some interesting data. Might be some surprisingly close 3-way races tomorrow?

18-34
Green 41.7%
PC 26.5%
Lib 15.1%

35-49
PC 32%
Green 25.3%
Lib 17.1%

Moncton
PC 36.6%
Green 29.1%
Lib 27%

Fredericton
Green 34.2%
PC 25.6%
Lib 20.2%

Taeolas · #**379** Posted **Sep 13, 2020, 5:03 PM**

Well I haven't voted yet, but it looks like when I do, I'll be trying to help Freddy North go green.

I'm disappointed to see a PC Majority, but it's a very weak majority so that should help curb things a bit, especially with some of his mandate still being in "Emergency Pandemic" mode.

It'll be interesting to see how thigns break down tomorrow.

Bishop2047 · #**380** Posted **Sep 13, 2020, 5:15 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by SevenSquared

That Mainstreet poll has some interesting data. Might be some surprisingly close 3-way races tomorrow?

18-34
Green 41.7%
PC 26.5%
Lib 15.1%

35-49
PC 32%
Green 25.3%
Lib 17.1%

Moncton
PC 36.6%
Green 29.1%
Lib 27%

Fredericton
Green 34.2%
PC 25.6%
Lib 20.2%

Those numbers for the 18-49 age groups do not look good for the Liberals. Does not look like Lib majorities will get any easier for them to win, as the years go on.