CHICAGO | Will the Sox leave US Comiskular Rate Field?

[sentinel]

^^Looks gorgeous, and I really appreciate all of the thought and analysis that went into putting the design together.

[nomarandlee]

The renders and ideas do look great. That said, I would still hedge a large sum of money that if this or the 78 version the Sox are trying to push were realized, the Sox would draw considerably better at the 78, which makes it understandable why they want to move there. Wanting the public to pay for the move, and the entitled nonsense involved, is a whole other discussion.

[twister244]

Again.....

I'm going to repeat my grievance - Serious proposals only please.

This is the second set of fancy renderings of what could be the future of the Sox when we haven't even come to a conclusion of what's to be of the initial pitch to get the Sox to go to 78.

We saw this splash of renderings from Arlington Heights showing a mixed-use development surrounding a future Bears stadium. Arlington Park was demolished.... Then the Bears bitched about taxes.... started touting plans to stay in the city...... There's been tons of headlines about a new stadium adjacent to the existing Soldier Field...... Now all of the sudden the Bears are trying to get a win over AH with taxes.

Like I said - I can't take any of these renderings seriously because we get a new headline three seconds after this stating team X has plans Y now. I'm not saying developers/architects/etc can't release these plans, but let's be a bit real on what exactly is going to go through to completion.

[gandalf612]

The most ridiculous part of the proposal is building an additional Red Line station a block from the one at 35th

[Rizzo]

Originally Posted by twister244

Again.....

I'm going to repeat my grievance - Serious proposals only please.

This is the second set of fancy renderings of what could be the future of the Sox when we haven't even come to a conclusion of what's to be of the initial pitch to get the Sox to go to 78.

We saw this splash of renderings from Arlington Heights showing a mixed-use development surrounding a future Bears stadium. Arlington Park was demolished.... Then the Bears bitched about taxes.... started touting plans to stay in the city...... There's been tons of headlines about a new stadium adjacent to the existing Soldier Field...... Now all of the sudden the Bears are trying to get a win over AH with taxes.

Like I said - I can't take any of these renderings seriously because we get a new headline three seconds after this stating team X has plans Y now. I'm not saying developers/architects/etc can't release these plans, but let's be a bit real on what exactly is going to go through to completion.

This appears to be a concept by non-stakeholders. It’s visionary. Hence the title “what if”. But still a valuable tool that can influence decision making and alternative perspectives.

The 78 needs to work. The Sox want to capture an additional fanbase who will find this location extraordinarily convenient and logistically workable in a busy schedule…whether you live in the city or suburbs.

[ardecila]

I give the Sox a 66% chance of leaving the city. The fanbase is at an all-time high level of disinterest. Reinsdorf has spent years disinvesting in the club and he's gotta be the most checked-out, absentee owner in MLB.

Dude has put as little skin in the game as humanly possible and seems to have one foot out the door already, the play for a 78 ballpark is a hail-mary to see if he can juice the value of the team, at taxpayer expense, before selling it on his deathbed. He's probably not interested in some complicated, 3-way deal with the Bears.

In many ways, renovating Guaranteed Rate and building a ballpark village around it seems to be the path of least resistance - I give that a 30% chance. It can probably be financed privately, the Cubs already showed it can be done, and the only politicians who aren't undecided right now are the ones from Bridgeport who want to keep the team in the neighborhood. If Reinsdorf ever comes around, I think they could get a deal together and city approvals pretty quickly.



For those keeping score, The 78 gets the last 3%... I personally like the plan, it is very well-designed and urban-friendly in a good location but that site is cursed. Plus it can't happen without billions in taxpayer money, and nobody wanted to hand billions to a sports team even before Reinsdorf destroyed his goodwill with fans (who are also voters and taxpayers).

[Steely Dan]

^ 100% agree with your assessment.

Reinsdorf is just playing games to try and cover his ass.

"I tried to build a new stadium here in Chicago for the faithful fans, but they wouldn't give me any free money this time...."


Nashville White Sox here we come.

[Ned.B]

Originally Posted by gandalf612

The most ridiculous part of the proposal is building an additional Red Line station a block from the one at 35th

My original thought was not that they were adding another station but providing a second entrance for the current station. But then I realized that the platform for 35th extends north of the station entrance. Maybe they are just proposing the platform shift south with entrances at both 35th and 37th?

[nomarandlee]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^
Nashville White Sox here we come.

I wonder if Nashville has the stomach to handle 3 pro-teams, especially after they pay out the nose for the new Titans stadium (I think nearly 1.25 billion of it is public money).

My bet is Austin. Tremendous growth in recent decades and projected growth in the near future. Largest US market without a pro-team? Pro baseball wouldn't fight for fans like UofT-Austin basketball or football would. There is lots of wealthy corporate tech money to draw from. They would be a natural rival for both the Astros and Rangers. Summer baseball in Texas does suck, though, so it would have to be an expensive, soulless retractable.

That said, I still hold out some cautious optimism for the 78. Part of that optimism is based on that I just can't figure out another US city that will be eager to give the Sox 500m-1b dollars plus to build them a new park. If the city/state would help pay to reorient the infrastructure (maybe a few hundred million dollars), and JR was to build the actual park (BIG IF), my hunch tells me that it could be politically viable even with the national backlash to these ballpark projects going on.

[ardecila]

Design is moving forward on some of the infrastructure work for The 78, it's not conditioned on the ballpark but that has added some urgency. Taylor St Bridge, St Charles Air Line bridge, etc. Wells-Wentworth is already completed of course, and I believe the design for the Metra relocation and 15th St underpass is done just awaiting funding.

DPI is out for construction bids and we should see an award in May or June and maybe advance work this fall.

[nomarandlee]

Originally Posted by ardecila

Design is moving forward on some of the infrastructure work for The 78, it's not conditioned on the ballpark but that has added some urgency. Taylor St Bridge, St Charles Air Line bridge, etc. Wells-Wentworth is already completed of course, and I believe the design for the Metra relocation and 15th St underpass is done just awaiting funding.

DPI is out for construction bids and we should see an award in May or June and maybe advance work this fall.

This is important background info, for sure. The timing does put the squeeze on the Sox to not pussyfoot and make plans for the 78 if it is to happen. If nothing moves forward by the end of the summer maybe put a fork in the idea?

[animositisomina]

Perhaps Jerry reads this forum because he's now offering to chip in $200 million

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/spor...te-sox-stadium

In a written statement, a source close to Reinsdorf said that, despite earlier media reports indicating Reinsdorf wants the Illinois Sports Facilities Authority to front the entire $1.25 billion said to be needed for the new ballpark, “We never said there would not be White Sox investment in the potential development.”

“To the contrary,” the statement continued, “We have been looking at several scenarios which would, under the right conditions, involve significant private investment. But as everyone knows, this is an evolving situation, and once we have a clear, definitive path, we will have a clear, definitive commitment.

The statement added, “We are aware of the importance of the overall package, beginning with the incredible benefits a new stadium at The 78 would bring to the city.”

The statement did not define “significant.” But sources close to negotiations say Reinsdorf has mentioned a figure of $200 million or more.

[animositisomina]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ 100% agree with your assessment.

Reinsdorf is just playing games to try and cover his ass.

"I tried to build a new stadium here in Chicago for the faithful fans, but they wouldn't give me any free money this time...."


Nashville White Sox here we come.

There is no chance the White Sox are moving to Nashville since the White Sox can't move until after 2030 and Nashville is in line for a new expansion team which could be awarded to them by next year.

I don’t know what the future holds for the White Sox, but there aren’t a lot of great options for MLB teams in terms of MSAs to move to. All of them are either too small or have a lot of transplants who are fans of other teams.

I would argue that Denver was the last MSA that needed an MLB team, and they didn’t get one until 1993 because of the thin air. Washington DC is a fine market for MLB, but they had two franchises leave that city before they received the Expos. Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami have proven to be rather underwhelming markets for MLB and they are all significantly bigger than Nashville, Las Vegas, Charlotte, Salt Lake City, etc.

The value of the White Sox will certainly go down if they move out of the area.

Ideally, Reinsdorf sells the team to an individual or group who is committed to keeping the franchise in the area, since he clearly can't finance a new stadium. Alternatively, he can find a way to make it work at the location the White Sox have been at for over 120 years.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by animositisomina

There is no chance the White Sox are moving to Nashville since the White Sox can't move until after 2030 and Nashville is in line for a new expansion team which could be awarded to them by next year.

No need for absolutes. Multiple cities are going to lose out on expansion. Courting the Sox would be the obvious next move for those cities. Current odds on favorites for new franchise are Nashville, Charlotte, San Antonio, Salt Lake, Orlando, and Portland. No stadium would be ready before 2030 anyways, that actually helps the Sox.

Originally Posted by animositisomina

I would argue that Denver was the last MSA that needed an MLB team, and they didn’t get one until 1993 because of the thin air.

Nashville and Charlotte are far bigger today than Denver was in 1993, like 20-50% larger.

Originally Posted by animositisomina

The value of the White Sox will certainly go down if they move out of the area.

An MLB that draws 30k a game in a brand new stadium is worth more than one that draws 20k a game in an old stadium.

Originally Posted by animositisomina

Ideally, Reinsdorf sells the team to an individual or group who is committed to keeping the franchise in the area, since he clearly can't finance a new stadium. Alternatively, he can find a way to make it work at the location the White Sox have been at for over 120 years.

It has been said over and over by Reinsdorf himself, the team is being sold when he dies. When that happens, it will likely go to the highest bidder regardless of location as his kids don't care about the team or keeping it here.

[animositisomina]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

No need for absolutes. Multiple cities are going to lose out on expansion. Courting the Sox would be the obvious next move for those cities. Current odds on favorites for new franchise are Nashville, Charlotte, San Antonio, Salt Lake, Orlando, and Portland. No stadium would be ready before 2030 anyways, that actually helps the Sox.

Nashville is a lock for an expansion team. They have a group that is headed by Dave Stewart and MLB very much wants to be there. The White Sox may move, but it won't be to Nashville.

Most of these other cities will be horrible markets for the MLB.

Orlando? Have you paid attention to what has happened in Tampa and Miami? Both markets have proven to be horrible for MLB.

Salt Lake City has an MSA of 1.25 million, which makes it much smaller than the current smallest MSA with an MLB team, Milwaukee.

Charlotte has shown little to no interest in attracting an MLB team, while Portland would be a challenging market given how close it is to Seattle.

San Antonio/Austin are full of transplants and has shown no interest to date in trying to land an MLB team. The recent success of the Rangers and Astros probably means that a lot of the people there who are baseball fans probably support one of those franchises right now.

Nashville and Charlotte are far bigger today than Denver was in 1993, like 20-50% larger.

Denver has an isolated MSA which made it far more attractive and viable for MLB since the entire MT could adopt it as their own MLB team. It has proven to be a fantastic market for that very reason. They would have had an MLB team far earlier than 1993 if it wasn't for the thin air.

An MLB that draws 30k a game in a brand new stadium is worth more than one that draws 20k a game in an old stadium.

There is no guarantee that any of these markets can attract 30k every night beyond the honeymoon period. Tampa had exactly one year where they averaged over 30,000, and that was 1998. Miami hasn't drawn over 30k since 1994, and they have a brand-new stadium. Arizona hasn't averaged over 30k for a full year since 2008:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/t...D/attend.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/t...A/attend.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/t...I/attend.shtml

I have no idea why you think any of these other markets can consistently draw 30k. What do you base that on? The above are all bigger markets than the ones that you mentioned.

It has been said over and over by Reinsdorf himself, the team is being sold when he dies. When that happens, it will likely go to the highest bidder regardless of location as his kids don't care about the team or keeping it here.

I have no doubt that the team will be sold after he dies, but I don't own a crystal ball and can't predict who will buy it, and neither can you. These threats are being made to drum up some kind of support for a publicly financed stadium, and it's failing miserably. He deserves no money, especially since the state paid for the last one. It's not the taxpayer's fault that he built a stadium that became dated the second Camden Yards opened.

It'll be a wonderful day when the White Sox are out of the grips of Reinsdorf and his family, who most certainly can not finance a new stadium on their own. If they leave the market, so be it, but it'll be a very short sighted move that will ultimately diminish the value of the franchise. However, it's most certainly possible for an individual or group with local ties to keep the White Sox in Chicago.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by animositisomina

Nashville is a lock for an expansion team. They have a group that is headed by Dave Stewart and MLB very much wants to be there. The White Sox may move, but it won't be to Nashville.

They are certainly the favorites to land one of the teams, especially since Vegas is getting the A's. I think you are overlooking the part about how MLB will open up two spots for expansion at a $2 billion price tag.

Once that happens, a bunch of these cities will get very serious about their offers, but only two will be chosen. Then when the Sox look to sell, the other cities will already have ownership groups and stadium sites ready to go from their expansion proposals.

A city like Charlotte hasn't done the legwork of Nashville, but likely will as the expansion slots become available.

Originally Posted by animositisomina

Orlando? Have you paid attention to what has happened in Tampa and Miami? Both markets have proven to be horrible for MLB.

Orlando isn't anything like Tampa (worst stadium in pro sports) or Miami (a famously disinterested fan base, the Dolphins struggled to sell out for years). I'm not saying it is guaranteed to work, but some of your logic feels a little circular.

Originally Posted by animositisomina

Charlotte has shown little to no interest in attracting an MLB team, while Portland would be a challenging market given how close it is to Seattle.

Charlotte needs better organization, but they have the 21st largest TV market and considerable ties to the White Sox organization with the Triple-A team there.

Portland is farther from Seattle than Milwaukee is to Chicago. Being so close is considered a benefit for those teams in terms of team travel and fans filling the stadium.

Originally Posted by animositisomina

San Antonio/Austin are full of transplants and has shown no interest to date in trying to land an MLB team.

What do you base the "full of transplants" logic on? Denver is full of transplants, so are Seattle and DC. Those places do pretty well.

Originally Posted by animositisomina

Denver has an isolated MSA which made it far more attractive and viable for MLB since the entire MT could adopt it as their own MLB team. It has proven to be a fantastic market for that very reason. They would have had an MLB team far earlier than 1993 if it wasn't for the thin air.

Based on this logic, Salt Lake would be a shoe-in. It is the same size as the Denver MSA was in 1993, has an active ownership group, specific ballpark locations, and is isolated.

Originally Posted by animositisomina

I have no idea why you think any of these other markets can consistently draw 30k. What do you base that on? The above are all bigger markets than the ones that you mentioned.

Because, as your own data shows, it isn't entirely about market size. Milwaukee draws well, St. Louis draws incredibly well. The White Sox are in a huge market and can't draw at all. Phoenix is the 10th largest MSA in the country and has trouble drawing.

Originally Posted by animositisomina

I have no doubt that the team will be sold after he dies, but I don't own a crystal ball and can't predict who will buy it, and neither can you.

Nobody tried to predict it. We are going off Jerry's word that it will likely go to whomever offers to pay the most. The wrinkle is the other owners having to approve it.