Provincial Politics

[PoscStudent]

Eugene Manning released a video this morning stating he’ll make an announcement next week.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Yup, he's running.

I gotta say, he could be the energetic spark the PCs need.

[PoscStudent]

He definitely comes off as having more energy than his opponents thus far. I’m interested to see what he has to say during his launch next week.

Jim Dinn has also announced he’s running to be the permanent NDP leader. The party opened nominations but aren’t serting a date for a leadership vote until finding if there are multiple candidates. So I expect that he’ll be the only candidate, unless a minor candidate puts their name forward.

[PoscStudent]

Eugene Manning made his leadership bid official last night. For someone with a limited public profile he managed to bring together a good number of supporters.

I thought the delivery of his speech was fairly strong, especially considering he’s new to this. I did not see any mention of caucus support in the news.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...race-1.6755507

[Marty_Mcfly]

Pierre Poilievre in the province a few days ago. Looks like the CPC have wisely decided to shift their focus in the province. He visited both Corner Brook (Long Range Mountains) and Clarenville (Bonavista-Burin-Trinity). Smart of the party to stop their tradition of sticking their heads into St. John's East like it's 2004 thinking they could win the seat back.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Pierre Poilievre in the province a few days ago. Looks like the CPC have wisely decided to shift their focus in the province. He visited both Corner Brook (Long Range Mountains) and Clarenville (Bonavista-Burin-Trinity). Smart of the party to stop their tradition of sticking their heads into St. John's East like it's 2004 thinking they could win the seat back.

Not a fan of Poilievre, but it’s nice to see a federal leader put focus on the province. That rarely happens during an election let alone outside of one and I do think people will appreciate that. Also, as cheesy as his latest attack ad running in the province might be at least it’s focused on this province and filmed here.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Q&A with the PC leadership candidates from Equal Voices NL. Some good questions in there.

https://equalvoicenl.ca/2023-pc-leadership/

[PoscStudent]

Looks like we could be headed for an actual interesting by-election in Conception Bay East Bell Island once David Brazil steps down next month. In a seat that has been reliably PC for the last 20 years, the Liberals are expected to run former journalist turned political aid Fred Hutton. PCSP town councillor Tina Neary has announced she’s running for the PC nomination.

It’ll be interesting to see if Hutton’s name recognition can put this seat in play at a time when the Liberal brand is struggling. Would be a major blow to new PC leader Tony Wakeham if his party were to lose this seat. Considering the party’s track record here you would have expected a competitive race for the PC nomination so it’ll be interesting to see what happens for them.

[Marty_Mcfly]

I think Hutton will make it a closer race than we've seen in the district in the past 20 years, but I doubt the Liberals take this one. I think there are suburban districts that the Liberals could win with a strong star candidate, but I don't think this is one of them.

Will see who wins the PC nomination before trying to estimate vote margins. I would guess the by-election will be in January or February.

[PoscStudent]

Furey wasted no time calling the by-election in Conception Bay East Bell Island. Brazil resigned on December 29 and the by-election has now been called for January 29. The Liberals clearly think an earlier vote is better for their chances, I can’t remember ever seeing a by-election called so fast.

[Marty_Mcfly]

By-election in Conception Bay East - Bell Island coming up, along with one likely in the spring for Fogo Island - Cape Freels.

Will provide a projection for CBE-BI at some point. I suspect it will be a PC hold though margins may be tighter than we've seen in a while in that district.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Conception Bay East - Bell Island By-Election Prediction

PC (Neary): 46%
LIB (Hutton): 39%
NDP (Churchill): 11%
IND (Harding): 4%

It's entirely possible that Hutton could pull off what would be a seemingly huge upset. I think this will end up being insanely close.

[RCGA]

Libs will win. Neary hasn't been out campaigning at all.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Conception Bay East - Bell Island By-Election Prediction

PC (Neary): 46%
LIB (Hutton): 39%
NDP (Churchill): 11%
IND (Harding): 4%

It's entirely possible that Hutton could pull off what would be a seemingly huge upset. I think this will end up being insanely close.

It won’t be a great night for the NDP if they only get 11%. They have a stronger candidate than usual and seem to have been putting their resources into being competitive here. 11% wouldn’t be much of an improvement over the last election.

I haven’t heard much about this by-election considering it’s the first one in a number of years and has high profile candidates. Not sure what kind of messaging the parties are using.

[PoscStudent]

And Hutton wins. Bad night for Wakeham.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Hutton did pull it off! Looks like I should have flipped the Liberal and PC numbers in my prediction haha.

NDP pretty strong night, it's hard to know how they'll actually do when they can put all the work in the world into a non-urban district and get zero result out of it. Also expected Harding to pull a bit more of the PC vote away, looks like he did about as good as any other Independent would.

Next by-election will be Fogo Island-Cape Freels. I would expect the Liberals to hold there.

[PoscStudent]

I thought Fogo Island-Cape Freels could be an interesting race but after Conception Bay East Bell Island I’m not so sure. Maybe it was just a Fred-factor that changed the dynamics in that race but you’d have to imagine it’s unlikely that the Liberals would lose it.

Will we see a by-election though or a general election?

[Marty_Mcfly]

Warr is stepping down as MHA of Baie Verte-Green Bay.

This presents itself a very good opportunity for the PC to pick up a seat. This district is heavy conservative territory.

The only thing to consider at this point, with two open seats, is whether the Liberals will call by-elections for both or just call a general election.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Fogo Island - Cape Freels By-election Prediction

LIB: 57%
PC: 40%
NDP: 3%

I can't see a scenario where the PC's win, unless the rural liberal brand has been poisoned by Trudeau more than expected. This isn't really an area of the island where I would expect those results to be as obvious.

I was wrong about Conception Bay East so I could be wrong here, but the Furey Liberals are doing well in spite of their Federal counterparts.

[SuperCat]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Fogo Island - Cape Freels By-election Prediction

LIB: 57%
PC: 40%
NDP: 3%

I can't see a scenario where the PC's win, unless the rural liberal brand has been poisoned by Trudeau more than expected. This isn't really an area of the island where I would expect those results to be as obvious.

I was wrong about Conception Bay East so I could be wrong here, but the Furey Liberals are doing well in spite of their Federal counterparts.

You were right on with your percentages but picked the wrong horse!
PCs 3290 57.7%
Libs 2244 39.3%
NDP 169 3%