Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan
and that's a totally fair concern, but i would also advise you to be mindful that these two projects are on entirely different schedules. there's probably a minimum of 18-24 months before these guys could even start talking about sales (and most likely even longer than that going by other recent supertall projects like trump, waterview), and by that time the spire might already be making a significant dent in the skyline.
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I understand. But it's still "in the pipeline". I think there's a case to be made that the Spire, which was first proposed in the summer of 2005, has had a dampening effect on Trump's ability to sell the final units in his building, even though it had already broken ground in the spring of 2005. It's almost exactly the same differential in timing. And that was before any truly serious concerns around the U.S. real estate market. In my business, people are more skeptical of M&A that would require significant funding from debt due to the backlog from LBOs that exists currently, despite the fact that anything one started discussions around right now wouldn't need to be marketed to investors until at least next summer.
I'm not saying this building will prevent the Spire from being successful, just that it's worth worrying about. I'd rather have the Spire get to 60% pre-sales than have both this and the Spire reach 40%, and neither get built.