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  #21  
Old Posted May 3, 2019, 11:16 PM
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Originally Posted by statbass View Post
I think some of this stems from the unions as well. You can't really blame them either given that many are over-worked, and that can affect quality of care. But this jesting is not uncommon between unions and government and will continue to happen. Don't get me wrong, I don't think we need to hack and slash health care to pieces and cut jobs, that would be detrimental to the province. There are so many inefficiencies in the health care system. I think this needs to be addressed first before throwing more money into filling jobs. But you do make a good point, a significant chunk of people would think throwing more money at it would solve their (not the) problem... but lines start to get blurry when many talk about the system vs themselves. It would be very unfortunate, however, if this was a tactic to drum up more votes. I honestly don't see where the extra money can be budgeted for more jobs. Just my honest opinion.... take it for what it's worth.
No, you're absolutely right. The truth of the matter is that we don't have any more money to spend in health care, even though our health care system needs help immediately. It's just something that I don't think money is capable of fixing.
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  #22  
Old Posted May 4, 2019, 9:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly View Post
No, you're absolutely right. The truth of the matter is that we don't have any more money to spend in health care, even though our health care system needs help immediately. It's just something that I don't think money is capable of fixing.
And sadly the issue can’t even be discussed. Crosbie mentioned looking for savings in heath care and next thing he’s being attacked by unions and the other two parties for wanting to cut health care.
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  #23  
Old Posted May 6, 2019, 1:07 PM
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Abacus Data is finishing up polling and should have some data for us to look at before the end of the week. I'm surprised that polling has been this quiet literally just 10 days before an election, especially considering we got a bunch of polling results back right after Christmas.
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  #24  
Old Posted May 6, 2019, 7:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly View Post
Abacus Data is finishing up polling and should have some data for us to look at before the end of the week. I'm surprised that polling has been this quiet literally just 10 days before an election, especially considering we got a bunch of polling results back right after Christmas.
MQO will have polling tomorrow. I’m guessing the election call also impacted pollsters getting into the field. I’m sure there’s a bit of organizing that takes place, particularly for a smaller region that doesn’t getting polled a lot. Then you need to be in the field for several days, then time to put all the info together. Be interesting to finally see the numbers though.
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  #25  
Old Posted May 7, 2019, 12:54 AM
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MQO will have polling tomorrow. I’m guessing the election call also impacted pollsters getting into the field. I’m sure there’s a bit of organizing that takes place, particularly for a smaller region that doesn’t getting polled a lot. Then you need to be in the field for several days, then time to put all the info together. Be interesting to finally see the numbers though.
My prediction: Liberals have a 4 point lead.

Other prediction: There is still a very large number of undecided voters.
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  #26  
Old Posted May 7, 2019, 5:29 PM
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MQO Poll

Decided voters:

Lib: 48%
PC: 36%
NDP: 11%
Alliance: 2%

Undecided voters: 39%

Big lead for the Liberals among decided voters, but a lot of people really could care less.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...ay-7-1.5125829
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  #27  
Old Posted May 8, 2019, 7:29 PM
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Abacus Data Poll

PC: 42%
Lib: 37%
NDP: 15%
OTH: 6%

Undecided: 21%

https://abacusdata.ca/in-newfoundlan...o-before-eday/
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  #28  
Old Posted May 8, 2019, 7:39 PM
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And for something truly interesting, Abacus also asked people about their federal support. The results are quite shocking:


https://twitter.com/Colettod/status/1126101271423926274
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  #29  
Old Posted May 8, 2019, 9:03 PM
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There’s a big difference in the numbers in both polls, hopefully we’ll see others before next week. I think we’ll see this played out district by district for the most party.
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  #30  
Old Posted May 9, 2019, 12:13 PM
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Originally Posted by PoscStudent View Post
There’s a big difference in the numbers in both polls, hopefully we’ll see others before next week. I think we’ll see this played out district by district for the most party.
Speaking of....

Forum

PC: 42%
Liberal: 40%
NDP: 13%
Other: 6%

Liberals and PC tied in St. John's, PC's ahead in east/central, and Liberals ahead in west/Labrador.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/3...2019_final.pdf
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  #31  
Old Posted May 9, 2019, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly View Post
Speaking of....

Forum

PC: 42%
Liberal: 40%
NDP: 13%
Other: 6%

Liberals and PC tied in St. John's, PC's ahead in east/central, and Liberals ahead in west/Labrador.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/3...2019_final.pdf
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If an election were held today, these results suggest a minority parliament: the Progressive Conservatives would win 19 seats, the Liberals would secure 18 seats, and the NDP would win 3 seats.
That would be three very powerful seats held by the NDP if this plays out!
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  #32  
Old Posted May 9, 2019, 1:21 PM
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Polls during an election should be outlawed ! They only serve to skew opinion. These polls are only useful if they are district by district, that is they way we elect governments, not by overall popularity. One party could win a district with 99% of the vote and lose two more with only 49%...in the long run they had more votes but still lost.

I think polls also serve to allow people to fall in behind the party they "think" is going to win...sort of letting people bet on a horse race while it is underway...bet on the horse in the lead (Sorry Maximum Security).

And don't forget the poll that had Hillary Clinton leading by about 5% days before the US election...how did that turn out?
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  #33  
Old Posted May 9, 2019, 2:31 PM
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Polls during an election should be outlawed ! They only serve to skew opinion. These polls are only useful if they are district by district, that is they way we elect governments, not by overall popularity. One party could win a district with 99% of the vote and lose two more with only 49%...in the long run they had more votes but still lost.

I think polls also serve to allow people to fall in behind the party they "think" is going to win...sort of letting people bet on a horse race while it is underway...bet on the horse in the lead (Sorry Maximum Security).

And don't forget the poll that had Hillary Clinton leading by about 5% days before the US election...how did that turn out?
I put no faith in them just due to the small sample size and the margin of error.
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  #34  
Old Posted May 10, 2019, 12:57 PM
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Polls do need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially here where polling sizes are very small. I think it does say something towards the political climate that the Liberals and PC's are tied. No one is going to run away with this election.
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  #35  
Old Posted May 10, 2019, 2:08 PM
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And in one morning the PC party may have shot itself in the foot and ruined their chances at winning.
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  #36  
Old Posted May 10, 2019, 4:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly View Post
Polls do need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially here where polling sizes are very small. I think it does say something towards the political climate that the Liberals and PC's are tied. No one is going to run away with this election.
Looks like there will be a minority government either way. I think the Liberals have the edge since they have 2 more candidates than the PCs.
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  #37  
Old Posted May 10, 2019, 7:39 PM
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Looks like there will be a minority government either way. I think the Liberals have the edge since they have 2 more candidates than the PCs.
Neither of those seats would have been in play either way.

The results are going to be interesting. I thought the Liberals had the edge based on incumbency but recent media coverage is starting to change my mind on how important that is. It has been mentioned in the news that Dwight Ball’s events haven’t been well attended, even though they’re in Liberal held districts. I listened to the CBC pollcast podcast yesterday and it was also mentioned how in western Newfoundland things seemed good for the Liberals but as the campaign moved into central people were angry. I’ve also seen several articles on district profiles that have brought up that constituents feel their MHAs are silent and not visible.

Ches Crosbie and the PCs had a rough day though so who knows how the next few will play out.
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  #38  
Old Posted May 14, 2019, 11:51 AM
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Originally Posted by PoscStudent View Post
Neither of those seats would have been in play either way.

The results are going to be interesting. I thought the Liberals had the edge based on incumbency but recent media coverage is starting to change my mind on how important that is. It has been mentioned in the news that Dwight Ball’s events haven’t been well attended, even though they’re in Liberal held districts. I listened to the CBC pollcast podcast yesterday and it was also mentioned how in western Newfoundland things seemed good for the Liberals but as the campaign moved into central people were angry. I’ve also seen several articles on district profiles that have brought up that constituents feel their MHAs are silent and not visible.

Ches Crosbie and the PCs had a rough day though so who knows how the next few will play out.
Fair point. And now that I think about it more, I don't think a minority is that likely. I can't see the NDP, NL Alliance or Independents getting many seats. Even if they get 3 or 4, one of the other parties could easily still end up with majority.
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  #39  
Old Posted May 14, 2019, 12:12 PM
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Originally Posted by J_Murphy View Post
Fair point. And now that I think about it more, I don't think a minority is that likely. I can't see the NDP, NL Alliance or Independents getting many seats. Even if they get 3 or 4, one of the other parties could easily still end up with majority.
I don't know.... it seems so neck-and-neck between Liberals and PC, all it takes is a win or two from the NDP and maybe an independent or NL Alliance and... BAM... we have a minority government. Anything can swing in one party's favor at any given time, there's too many variables here to be certain, IMO. It's going to be very interesting come Thursday. Even if a majority government is formed, I hope it's not heavily weighted to one side. This province needs a healthy opposition; not to the point of stalling legislation, but challenging to keep gov on track. Party skewness has gone on for a long time with governments in this province.
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  #40  
Old Posted May 14, 2019, 12:37 PM
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I have a complete district-by-district prediction with commentary and map ready to go and share/post. I'm holding out until tomorrow to post it in case one last opinion poll gets published between now and election day. My predictions were....uh....interesting to say the least. They're based off of opinion polling, incumbency, popularity of elected MHAs and/or their opponents, as well as district voting habits.
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