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  #81  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 12:24 AM
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^ That'd be nice. I don't foresee us having the weight of Ontario anytime soon and I'm not sure that it's absolutely necessary, but if all the Western provinces held the same weight roughly as all of the Eastern provinces, I think it'd be good for balancing things out and allow neither side to really neglect or feel holier-than-thou towards the other.
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  #82  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 12:36 AM
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I meant all of Western Canada could eventually have the collective political power of just Ontario... as we're currently only 2.3 million behind them now.
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  #83  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 12:41 AM
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^ I'd rather things just be balanced between East-West to mitigate the divide...
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  #84  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 12:44 AM
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I think that one of Alberta's strengths, growth-wise, as that it isn't all focused on one metropolitan area. Although Calgary and Edmonton certainly take credit for a big chunk of it, there is plenty of growth in smaller urban centres.
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  #85  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 12:51 AM
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^ That and our population isn't huddled along the border like every non-Atlantic province.
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  #86  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 1:18 AM
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Another problem is that BC's economy is very sluggish right now so all of our current growth is from retirees and immigration.

The young are packing their bags and leaving.

Reasons for this very from lack of high paying jobs to high cost of living to less amenities.

Unless BC changes course soon (doubtful) I could even see the population of BC in the next 5 years going into a decline instead of a growth period.

Greater Vancouver Growth will only continue due to immigration, most towns in BC are shrinking outside of the big 3, Vancouver, Victoria, and Kelowna.
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  #87  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 1:59 AM
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That is terrible to think of BCs population declining, but I could also see it happening, just because of the absolutely insane cost of housing and lack of decent paying jobs for entry level educated youth. It would be nice to see a major correction in BCs real estate market, but that would also be accompanied by a severe economic recession for the region. Perhaps it needs to happen, in order for the province to have a better future.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Boris2k7 View Post
I think that one of Alberta's strengths, growth-wise, as that it isn't all focused on one metropolitan area. Although Calgary and Edmonton certainly take credit for a big chunk of it, there is plenty of growth in smaller urban centres.
I agree, it's also a strength of Saskatchewan as well, thanks to both provinces having a very wide population distribution throughout their geographic area compared to other large provinces. If we overtake BC by 2020, that would be huge. Hitting 5 million by 2021, who knows, maybe the east may start taking the west seriously as major players? That would be nice, especially since BC likely wouldn't be far behind us hitting 5 million.
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  #88  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 4:53 AM
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Eventually the spare carrying capacity of the province built up lately will be used up and our fundamentals will have to shift to a bit. If we can't prevent another real estate spike population growth will have to moderate. We haven't found a way yet that is acceptable to the populace of keeping up with infrastructure to support growth besides simultaneously complaining about low pace of expansion (in comparison to population and demographic changes) and complaining about the cost of doing what is currently being done.
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  #89  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 5:20 AM
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Also, plugged in the provincial numbers for the last five decades and came up with this chart. Doesn't include the shadow population in the province or "on-reserve" First Nations numbers.

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  #90  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 6:00 AM
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Re: the Banff-Canmore corridor, I wouldn't support more towns due to existing development already being a risk to disrupting wildlife migrations through the valley, but I could see some really interesting densification happening vertically.
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  #91  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 12:56 PM
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Wow Boris so that means we're not even at our highest growth ever? Who knows, maybe we could grow even faster at some point over the next 6 years.
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  #92  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 5:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker View Post
Eventually the spare carrying capacity of the province built up lately will be used up and our fundamentals will have to shift to a bit. If we can't prevent another real estate spike population growth will have to moderate. We haven't found a way yet that is acceptable to the populace of keeping up with infrastructure to support growth besides simultaneously complaining about low pace of expansion (in comparison to population and demographic changes) and complaining about the cost of doing what is currently being done.

Or accommodate growth at a lower marginal cost. Initiatives such as Right to Work, more competitive sourcing for government services (ex. vouchers for education and health care, privately owned and managed mass transit), streamlined land use approvals etc. Could reduce the cost of government.
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  #93  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 5:30 PM
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Quote:
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Or accommodate growth at a lower marginal cost. Initiatives such as Right to Work, more competitive sourcing for government services (ex. vouchers for education and health care, privately owned and managed mass transit), streamlined land use approvals etc. Could reduce the cost of government.
Vouchers are simply another layer of bureaucracy. Right to Work reduces services, especially in governments.
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  #94  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 5:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doug View Post
Or accommodate growth at a lower marginal cost. Initiatives such as Right to Work, more competitive sourcing for government services (ex. vouchers for education and health care, privately owned and managed mass transit), streamlined land use approvals etc. Could reduce the cost of government.
That is a big could. Remember when no company was able to deliver recycling for cheaper than the bid from the union in Calgary?

When there is a big problem of recruiting labour, I don't think we really have a problem with sticky wages.

If you want to look at vouchers, there are plenty of studies looking at the administration costs of medicare (vouchers) vs. veteran affairs health (single payer), and single payers comes out as much more efficient.

As for school vouchers, we already have that with Charter Schools. I don't think there is really much evidence they are any more or less efficient.
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  #95  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 8:57 PM
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Quote:
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It goes from park land, to Seebe, to reserve.


Capturesir by Odarwin1, on Flickr
Looking at that it looks like only the Exshaw area has room to expand, northwards...
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  #96  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 9:09 PM
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Looking at that it looks like only the Exshaw area has room to expand, northwards...
Once more of the mountain is gone, maybe!
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  #97  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 11:02 PM
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Wow Boris so that means we're not even at our highest growth ever? Who knows, maybe we could grow even faster at some point over the next 6 years.
2.5% of 4,000,000 people is a lot more people than 4% of 1,000,000. If anything, it's a wonder that we can maintain these kinds of rates.

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  #98  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 11:04 PM
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Wow Boris so that means we're not even at our highest growth ever? Who knows, maybe we could grow even faster at some point over the next 6 years.
Keep in mind higher population growth percentages happen more easily with a lower population. It's likely the absolute number increase per year will increase with the percentage per year stabilizing or decreasing.

And keep in mind most of the growth projections being made are on the assumption that this boom trend will continue. It is perfectly possible to see a slump in growth (like some of the 80's and 90's) if oil prices drop significantly. It's not necessarily the most likely thing to happen, but it very well could. And with the States producing more, if China's economy slows down more rapidly than expected, I could see an oil glut happening. If it does, Alberta is much more diversified than the last time it happened, but growth will certainly still slow.
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  #99  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 11:15 PM
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Oil would have to trend long term lower. Oil sands growth is very different than conventional oil growth - it is by nature not as cyclical for employment, but just as cyclical for profit / royalties. It makes things harder to manage for the province for sure, but it is a problem any other jurisdiction would love to have. Get a couple pipelines built and we will remain in high investment mode for another decade.
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  #100  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2014, 6:32 PM
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I really hope Energy East goes through. Keystone would be nice, but we can probably do without it. Energy East would be great for the entire country, and our European allies who need to get off Russian oil. Northern Gateway would be great for the economy too, assuming China doesn't collapse. Even still, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Southeast Asia, and Oceania still need oil too.
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