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  #61  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2014, 3:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
If we can keep Nenshi in office for the next decade, I think the demographic will shift from the current 80% out - 20% up, hopefully to 50/50. He and council are actually making some pretty good decisions when it comes to curbing our sprawl. They just really need to streamline the process for inner-city redevelopment applications when it comes to small things like tearing down a 60s-era stucco house in order to build a new duplex. I have confidence that this will come in due time though. Also, when I say 50/50 I don't mean that all of those 50%-up will be in towers, but a lot more inner city redevelopment like what I just mentioned with SFH lots being converted into duplexes and stuff like that. There will be a lot of tower developments in the Beltline, Eau Claire, West and East Villages though. Our inner city population could probably double comfortably. Though, I would just settle for it increasing from 150 000 to 250 000.
Gotta say I really like your mayor, he seems like a great guy to me.

Calgary and edmonton are both growing so fast right now, I can't see many negatives happening to either any time soon.

Calgary's proximity to the rockies makes it an attractive destination for skiers as well.

I think Calgary will grow much faster than Edmonton.

I could see Edmonton at 1.6 million, Calgary at 2 million, Greater Vancouver at 3.3 million, Greater Toronto at 8 million, and Montreal at 5 million by 2030.

It's even possible that in the next 50 years, Calgary might surpass Greater Vancouver and become the largest metro in western Canada.

I think Canada in general by 2030 will have around 40 million people, possibly more depending on current growth rates.

I'd say a low of 40 million and a high of 45 million.

Gonna be an exciting 15 years.
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  #62  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2014, 4:40 AM
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I don't think there is any way Montreal will be 5 million by 2030, it took them from 1988 until 2013 just to make it from 3 to 4 million (about 25 years), so maybe by 2040 or later, but the rest of what you said is possible. However, I think Edmonton would still be within at least 200 000 of Calgary though, so Edmonton at 1.8, Calgary at 2, with Ottawa probably around 1.5. We're currently growing by about 6 000/year more than Edmonton and are around 80 000 ahead in population right now.


I just read on a Calgary Region Economic Study that the Calgary Region will reach 3 million by 2076, so that's quite a long time, but that also account for future growth, diversification, and the slowing/ending of the oil boom eventually.
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  #63  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2014, 4:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
I just read on a Calgary Region Economic Study that the Calgary Region will reach 3 million by 2076, so that's quite a long time, but that also account for future growth, diversification, and the slowing/ending of the oil boom eventually.
On the boom, from CERI's Canadian Oil Sands Supply Costs and Development Projects (2012-2046) CERI Study No. 133, May 2013 a pdf.

To get this:

Captureceri1 by Odarwin1, on Flickr

We invest this initially:

Captureceri2 by Odarwin1, on Flickr

And this to keep projects going:

Captureceri3 by Odarwin1, on Flickr

To earn this for our collective nest egg:

Captureceri4 by Odarwin1, on Flickr

So the 'boom' in capital investment ends in the early 2020s, and goes into a sustaining phase.
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  #64  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2014, 4:51 AM
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By 2031, I predict...
1. Toronto (GTA) - 8.1 million
2. Montreal - 4.6 million
3. Vancouver - 3.0 million
4. Calgary - 2.0 million
5. Edmonton - 1.8 million
6. Ottawa - 1.6 million
7. Quebec City - 1.0 million
8. Winnipeg - 0.9 million
9. Hamilton - 0.9 million
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  #65  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2014, 5:04 AM
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Agreed UE.


And Malcolm, sooo... I'm not sure I'm understanding that right. So we will see investment in the oil sands until the early 2030s, so that by the 2040s we'll be seeing between 50 and 70 billion a year in royalties? Fuck me, that would be nice.
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  #66  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2014, 5:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
Agreed UE.


And Malcolm, sooo... I'm not sure I'm understanding that right. So we will see investment in the oil sands until the early 2030s, so that by the 2040s we'll be seeing between 50 and 70 billion a year in royalties? Fuck me, that would be nice.
$50-70 billion in 2012 dollars, so yeah a lot. I was using it to show we can see a transition point in the early to mid 2020s, where investment drops and gives the economy a breather. And royalties go up and up (this is where the structure which encouraged more production over a more immediate royalty pays off big time).

What happens then, who knows. We will have lots of skilled trades to help us continue to build our cities and other infrastructure. Whatever is coming out of the incubators at that time should have a real chance to succeed and stay in Alberta, not that we will ever be a low cost jurisdiction. But businesses won't have to fight an ever growing dominant industry anymore.

Alberta has problems yeah, but even if we follow the low-case line we will be doing incredibly well for our collective selves.
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  #67  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2014, 9:50 AM
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Originally Posted by ue View Post
By 2031, I predict...
1. Toronto (GTA) - 8.1 million
2. Montreal - 4.6 million
3. Vancouver - 3.0 million
4. Calgary - 2.0 million
5. Edmonton - 1.8 million
6. Ottawa - 1.6 million
7. Quebec City - 1.0 million
8. Winnipeg - 0.9 million
9. Hamilton - 0.9 million
I think Vancouver will be closer to 3.2 million by 2031. Thats based off of the most up to date metro growth estimates.

It's currently at 2.5 million so growing by 700k isn't hugely off the table.

Each census seems to add about 200k and they occur every 5 years.

so
2.6 million in 2016
2.8 million in 2021
3 million in 2026
3.2 million in 2031.

For Calgary I think it will be anywhere from 1.8 million on a lower growth scenario to possibly 2.2 million in a high growth scenario.

It'd be interesting to see if Calgary will ever overtake Vancouver as Canada's 3rd largest metropolitan region.

at 2 million as a single city it'd be pretty large, possibly within the city limits you might overtake montreal by 2031 making Calgary Canada's 2nd largest city and 4th largest metropolitan area.

Either way, good times for Calgary growth.

I can't wait for the GTA to reach 10 million but that probably won't happen until the 2040s to 2050s.
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  #68  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2014, 4:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Oliver Klozov View Post
When it comes to attracting corporate headquarters, Edmonton has one thing going for it .... Calgary's mayor!

He's quite similar to the kind of mayors Edmonton had back in the 50s and 60s that chased out the headquarters (moved to Calgary).
Which headquarters are leaving Calgary because of Nenshi, and what specifically is he doing to chase them out?
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  #69  
Old Posted Mar 6, 2014, 9:16 PM
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I'm also quite curious on the growth between Calgary and Banff National Park.
In the past 20 yrs the combined population of Cochrane and Canmore has gone from 11,000 to 30,000. I feel like Canmore is almost built out, so I'm wondering if currently tiny areas like Dead Man's Flats and Exshaw are going to explode. I see from their planning docs they already have an area that's several times the size of their current built area planned for future residential. And you look at Dead Man's Flats where the entire hamlet is only a few blocks large, but are building developments like this:

https://maps.google.com/?ll=51.04007...09.26,,0,-4.11
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  #70  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2014, 9:45 PM
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I'd love to see a greater connection between Calgary and Canmore, even Banff. I'm surprised that there haven't been new settlements popping up along/near the TransCanada. Are new settlements not allowed to happen? I'm not sure what the law is. It would be nice to see a more populated foothills corridor though.


Also, a few weeks ago, there was a discussion in the Canada section about the most updated population estimates and how Calgary's CMA is cut off at the southern border of the city, so Blader actually did a revised count for our extended or geographic CMA. The population as of July 1, 2013 was 1 427 000 (compared to 1 365 000 in our federally recongized CMA), with a yearly growth in the CMA between 2012 - 2013 of 57 000, and in the extended CMA around 60 000. If that growth continues, the Calgary area will be around 1.48 million this year, and well over 1.5 million next year. Even the actual CMA will be over 1.4 million by this years estimates. To think the CMA only passed 1 million a decade ago...


I wonder if they will include Okotoks et al. into our CMA by the next federal census... hopefully.
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  #71  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2014, 10:08 PM
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^ What would be the point of new settlements? They wouldn't serve any purpose that Cochrane or Canmore already serve, aside from some sprawl fantasy of a completely urban Calgary-Banff corridor. IMO it would be more realistic to just see Calgary/Cochrane/Canmore continue to sprawl outwards to each other than to have new towns and cities incorporated just for the sake of.

And Calgary passed 1 million a decade ago around those 'federally recognized' CMA counts, not the extended one Blader provided. With including Okotoks et al, Calgary would've passed 1 million earlier.
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  #72  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2014, 10:13 PM
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There would be no point to them except to serve the upper commuter class, similar to what Rockyview County does, except this would be in a more organized, less shitty and unprofessional manner. Calgary's sprawl to the west and northwest is already slowing to a crawl (completely ended in the NW), so that won't happen. Don't know about Cochrane. Canmore has a population cap.

Yeah, no kidding. 400 000 in 10 years is still amazing, which is what I was saying. It's also almost as amazing as 500 000 in 12 years is.
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  #73  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2014, 10:13 PM
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It goes from park land, to Seebe, to reserve.


Capturesir by Odarwin1, on Flickr
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  #74  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2014, 8:36 PM
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So, as usual, I've done another calculation

Using the Q1 2014 numbers... Alberta has grown by 404 000 people since the 2009 yearly estimates (July 1). That is 404 000 people in only 4.25 years. Conversely, BC's population grew by 199 000 during the same period. If this trend continues, how long would it take us to overtake BC? As we are currently 527 000 behind them.
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Last edited by Chadillaccc; Mar 19, 2014 at 8:50 PM.
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  #75  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2014, 8:41 PM
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^ Do you want us to solve it? Chad, if you're turning this thread into a math class, ya gotta let me know now so I can get the fuck outta here !
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  #76  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2014, 8:47 PM
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Well I just did the simple math... if this trend continues, we won't overtake them within the 2010s decade.

If Alberta grows by 606 000 (404 000 x 1.5) over the next 6 years, we will be at 4 689 000, while if BC grows by 298 000 (199 000 x 1.5) over the next 6 years, they will be at 4 908 000, still 219 000 ahead of us. I doubt we could keep up our current growth rate for another 6 years, let alone longer, nor do I think BC will remain in its current slump for that long. It doesn't look like we will overtake them in population, unless they have a negative year or two while we have a couple 100 000+ growth years. Which again, is not likely.
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  #77  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2014, 11:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
Well I just did the simple math... if this trend continues, we won't overtake them within the 2010s decade.

If Alberta grows by 606 000 (404 000 x 1.5) over the next 6 years, we will be at 4 689 000, while if BC grows by 298 000 (199 000 x 1.5) over the next 6 years, they will be at 4 908 000, still 219 000 ahead of us. I doubt we could keep up our current growth rate for another 6 years, let alone longer, nor do I think BC will remain in its current slump for that long. It doesn't look like we will overtake them in population, unless they have a negative year or two while we have a couple 100 000+ growth years. Which again, is not likely.
Plugging my numbers into an Excel sheet, using the same period (Q4 2009-2013), Alberta comes out with an average of 2.53% (which is less than our current growth rate) and B.C. at 0.85%. If we assumed the same average growth rate going forward, we pass B.C. in 2020. If we continued growing at our current pace and B.C. doesn't pick up, we pass in 2019. In any case, we will almost certainly pass B.C. in the next decade.

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  #78  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2014, 11:57 PM
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Omg really!?! Yayyy Boris!! Boo Math!!

Things changing is fun. However, I wish BCs growth would pick back up to 2000s levels again though, as Western growth is good for all of us. We need more balance in this country. I'm sure their growth will come back up sooner than later though, but the trend is pretty clear that Alberta has been growing faster for quite some time, and it's only inevitable that we will surpass them.
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  #79  
Old Posted Mar 19, 2014, 11:58 PM
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^ I'm actually glad to see growth more focused in the Prairies for a change, it reduces the emphasis on BC within Western Canada. Moreso Saskatchewan and Manitoba, as Alberta's been growing steady for awhile now.
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  #80  
Old Posted Mar 20, 2014, 12:10 AM
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Even Saskatchewan has grown at a healthy boom-style clip since 2009. They've grown by about 83 000 people, with Manitoba at 63 000. In total, Western Canada has grown by approximately 750 000 over the last 4 years and a bit. Our total population now including the territories is 11.2 million. Not friggin bad! Eventually we may even have the collective political power of Ontario!
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