VIA Rail

[Hybrid247]

Originally Posted by Urban_Sky

If you extrapolate from VIA’s 2019 demand figures in the Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal triangle, population growth alone would demand from 3.6 million in 2019 to 4.1 million in 2030. If you add the decrease in generalized travel time (from higher frequencies and shorter travel times), you would already be at 5.5 million

Firstly, I'd like to say I appreciate your insights and I hope you continue to participate in discussions. With that being said, perhaps you can tell me if I really am out to lunch in doubting the 7M or 3x ridership claims given the above figures?

I understand if you're reluctant given the potential NDA obligations.

Cheers

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Hybrid247

Firstly, I'd like to say I appreciate your insights and I hope you continue to participate in discussions. With that being said, perhaps you can tell me if I really am out to lunch in doubting the 7M or 3x ridership claims given the above figures?

I think you're missing the point in his analysis. He is suggesting that population growth and reduction in travel time would get ridership up to 5.5M in 2030. But there's also the increase in frequency and new cities added, which should hopefully add 1.5M. Heck, done right, the Kingston hub should also boost ridership on the Lakeshore.

I am willing to bet that 7M within a decade of launch is going to prove conservative.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Hybrid247

I don't really want to get into the semantics of "skepticism", as that may start a whole other debate, so I'll say this: I can't outright reject the numbers without seeing the methodology, but given the available information, there are a few aspects that don't fully add up, which I've previously stated. Of course there may be factors I've not considered, but my impression is that the 3x and 7M figures were tied to the initial purported run time of 2.5hrs for Tor-Ott. I don't think it's a coincidence that they seem to have dropped that ridership figure since they've revised the run-time to about 3.25-3.5hrs.

I actually haven't seen the new lower riderhip figures. Do you recall what the most recent projection is?

[Hybrid247]

All they seem to be saying now is 9.9M for the entire corridor. Nothing about TOM ridership since they changed the run times from 2.5hrs to 3.25-3.5hrs.

Edit: Whether the 9.9M figure still includes the 7M for TOM is unclear.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I actually haven't seen the new lower riderhip figures. Do you recall what the most recent projection is?

The project has gone through several iterations. When it started, it was $3B on just Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal, with a projected ridership of 7.35M (3.5 x 2.1.... Taken from the slide). But since then, travel times have gone down, but the budget has gone to to $4B and Quebec City has been added. Their infographic also says Corridor ridership of 9.9M by 2030. But that includes Corridor West. In 2019, Corridor East had ~3.63M and Corridor West had ~1.15M. So that would imply roughly 7-8M riders for HFR depending on how Corridor West and Kingston Hub/Lakeshore ridership is modeled post HFR.

[Hybrid247]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I think you're missing the point in his analysis. He is suggesting that population growth and reduction in travel time would get ridership up to 5.5M in 2030. But there's also the increase in frequency and new cities added, which should hopefully add 1.5M. Heck, done right, the Kingston hub should also boost ridership on the Lakeshore.

I am willing to bet that 7M within a decade of launch is going to prove conservative.

Ya that seems plausible.

To be clear, my initial doubts were in response to Nouvellecosse's comment about the 3x ridership figure rather than the 7M figure itself. IIRC, the 7M and 3x ridership figures for TOM were being touted for ~2023 back in 2015. Obviously, 7M by 2030 is more likely than 2023 simply as a result of population growth, but the 3x ridership certainly doesn't seem to apply anymore if the 2019 ridership is up to 3.6M. Still not sure about 7M by 2030, but I'm certainly not as doubtful about that as I am about the initial 3x ridership claim.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Take Moncton to Halifax. If the whole line of Ocean was 2x a day, that part would be the busier part.

Good example of thinking in network terms for transportation. The current train from Halifax to Montreal that runs a few times a week is nearly useless as part of the transportation network within the region. There is not really any kind of trip that you could plan in the abstract, look at the options including VIA, and then elect to take VIA based on cost in dollars or time. It is just there to tick the "technically has train service" box and for novelty or tourism purposes. You could put a similar useless 20+ hour long train ride anywhere in Canada and produce mediocre ridership and operating losses.

A Halifax-Moncton train running a few times a day would be useful to all kinds of people for many different trips including for people connecting on to other places with flights or buses that already exist (or would in normal non-covid times). It would maybe even be the primary intercity travel option in winter on the busy 102 corridor. Trains could be a primary option for the Maritimes. They were up until the early 90's or so. I think trains could become more attractive in the 2020's because in Halifax now you can get Uber so arriving with a car is less essential.

Ridership of a semi-reasonable transportation service around that area would be dramatically higher than today. Like maybe 20x more riders from rejigging the service and investing 2x more.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by someone123

Good example of thinking in network terms for transportation. The current train from Halifax to Montreal that runs a few times a week is nearly useless as part of the transportation network within the region. There is not really any kind of trip that you could plan in the abstract, look at the options including VIA, and then elect to take VIA based on cost in dollars or time. It is just there to tick the "technically has train service" box and for novelty or tourism purposes. You could put a similar useless 20+ hour long train ride anywhere in Canada and produce mediocre ridership and operating losses.

A Halifax-Moncton train running a few times a day would be useful to all kinds of people for many different trips including for people connecting on to other places with flights or buses that already exist (or would in normal non-covid times). It would maybe even be the primary intercity travel option in winter on the busy 102 corridor. Trains could be a primary option for the Maritimes. They were up until the early 90's or so. I think trains could become more attractive in the 2020's because in Halifax now you can get Uber so arriving with a car is less essential.

Ridership of a semi-reasonable transportation service around that area would be dramatically higher than today. Like maybe 20x more riders from rejigging the service and investing 2x more.

Makes me wonder how much more it would achieve to have it continue on to Saint John. And of course, how expensive it would be.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Makes me wonder how much more it would achieve to have it continue on to Saint John. And of course, how expensive it would be.

I think in a country with semi-reasonable infrastructure there would be a 200 km/h train running from Saint John to Moncton and Moncton to Halifax. Saint John to Halifax would be a 2.5 hour trip and Moncton to Halifax would be 90 mins. It would be the default way to travel between these cities and the half a dozen or so larger towns along the route (which have a significant percentage of the total population; it is not just 3 cities and wilderness). Truro would be within the commuter shed of Halifax.

There would also be a Halifax to Montreal train and it would serve Saint John and cross Maine (serving Sherbrooke and maybe Bangor). A train like this used to exist. Passengers could pre-clear on either side as if they were visiting the US in the absence of a special agreement.

Maybe in the medium term in Canada there could be a train that's comparable to driving time-wise and runs a couple times a day between the 3 cities. I think that would still be worthwhile. VIA said they were considering it in 2016, plus a train up to northern NB somewhere, but I don't think there have been any updates.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by someone123

I think in a country with semi-reasonable infrastructure there would be a 200 km/h train running from Saint John to Moncton and Moncton to Halifax.

Agreed. But we're way too cheap to fund reasonable infrastructure in this country.

If we actually cared, we'd have HFR like regional rail services in several corridors in this country. Saint John-Moncton-Halifax being one of them.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

VIA has not claimed that HFR would be profitable. They clearly acknowledge that it will, like most forms of public transportation in the West, require significant operating subsidies. Any investor profit will be based on a PPP whose terms ensure the private partner receives an investment return based on the public sector providing sufficient funding. Here's a screen grab from one of their promotional videos where the CEO gives a presentation on the proposal. It clearly shows, as the CEO states, that the subsidy with HFR is expected to be 7x higher than 2014 corridor average but much lower than with HSR. In other words, not a new business model that magically makes public transport profitable, just a way to improve the service without the much higher cost of HSR.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=4m11...ature=youtu.be

That being said, skepticism is indeed neutrality - not as a final conclusion, but as an intermediate state awaiting more information. It is the act of not accepting a claim as true until more information is provided. If someone feels they already have enough information to draw an opposing conclusion before seeing the information behind an assertion, that isn't skepticism; it's disagreement or opposition. Obviously there's nothing wrong disagreement is wrong as a general principle. I just feel skepticism is appropriate in this instance. You're welcome to disagree of course but that's my position.

If somebody tells me that millions of voting machines were hacked by Venezuelans, I am not going to be neutral while I await further details. What you’re asking for is gullibility.

The infographic floating around this thread says no subsidies would be needed for the HFR route, that means it needs to at least break even. Also, VIA officials and fanboys on this thread have repeatedly said this project will attract private investment, which requires some sort of profit (to provide a return to investors).

Also, that chart uses older estimates. They would not be able to make similar claims with more recent numbers.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by milomilo

I think those points of skepticism you make are fair and I remember comparing HFR to similar British routes and confirming that HFR's journey time estimates are optimistic compared to something like the ECML. I also agree that the chance of this being profitable are slim. Railways rarely operate at a profit (otherwise why isn't the private sector building them?).

That said though, I don't care about that and just want it to be built. It's a virtual guarantee the line will be overbudget, be protested, have some controversy, NIMBY opposition, Conservatives saying it's both too much and not enough etc. But then it will be built and everyone will forget all that and think it's great.

But the more likely scenario is once the true costs become known the Government will pull the plug and Via will have wasted years.

[p_xavier]

Ridership could really soar if Greyhound is really dead in Canada. Ottawa-Montréal by bus had huge ridership.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by p_xavier

Ridership could really soar if Greyhound is really dead in Canada. Ottawa-Montréal by bus had huge ridership.

I doubt Greyhound is actually dead. But some other bus co will fill that void if they are. It's not like the route can go years without service while HFR is under construction, possibly disrupting current service. The pressure will come when HFR is in service with shorter travel times.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by acottawa

But the more likely scenario is once the true costs become known the Government will pull the plug and Via will have wasted years.

I don't think that's likely. 4B or 8B, what does it matter? You can't go to Walmart and compare the cost of a rail line to another, when the government budgets something, you often have to just accept that that is the cost. The Green Line in Calgary has effectively doubled in cost, yet we still plan on building it.

If VIA wasted years, I'm not sure what other option there was? The status quo is only going to get more unsustainable, and HSR has been rejected multiple times.

[milomilo]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I doubt Greyhound is actually dead. But some other bus co will fill that void if they are. It's not like the route can go years without service while HFR is under construction, possibly disrupting current service. The pressure will come when HFR is in service with shorter travel times.

HFR should be good for bus companies. Sure the core route would face competition, but now you have network effects - buses to train stations become more viable.

Ideally we'd have regulated routes and an integrated ticketing system, but I'm not that much of a dreamer.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by milomilo

If VIA wasted years, I'm not sure what other option there was? The status quo is only going to get more unsustainable, and HSR has been rejected multiple times.

Somebody is just throwing shade because they are concerned about the impact to their employer funded frequent flyer status and the flight offerings in Ottawa. HFR and REM to Dorval makes self-transfer to YUL very easy. This makes YOW aviation fanboys uncomfortable.

Originally Posted by milomilo

HFR should be good for bus companies. Sure the core route would face competition, but now you have network effects - buses to train stations become more viable.

Ideally we'd have regulated routes and an integrated ticketing system, but I'm not that much of a dreamer.

Absolutely. There's real opportunities for integration here. Just might not be the same companies that win.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I doubt Greyhound is actually dead. But some other bus co will fill that void if they are. It's not like the route can go years without service while HFR is under construction, possibly disrupting current service. The pressure will come when HFR is in service with shorter travel times.

Greyhound Canada is only out of service right now because of the pandemic, isn't it?

Or are they using Covid-19 as an excuse to implement cuts similar to what they did in Western Canada in 2018?

If Greyhound Canada doesn't come back, I certainly see some opportunities for private operators or even agencies like GO or Ontario Northland to beef up service in at least Ontario. There's no reason VIA couldn't offer buses either - after all, they are at their core a transportation company and they have run buses before in a couple locations - wasn't there one connecting Moncton with the old ferry to PEI back in the 80s? I know Amtrak offers some bus services in the US in addition to its rail services as well.

[esquire]

^ I noticed that Ontario Northland has started running to Winnipeg which I don't think was happening pre-Greyhound cuts. They must really be expanding their network.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by esquire

^ I noticed that Ontario Northland has started running to Winnipeg which I don't think was happening pre-Greyhound cuts. They must really be expanding their network.

After Greyhound disbanded their national service, Northwestern Ontario had very limited bus service. Instead of reinstating the Northlander train to parallel an existing bus service in Northeastern Ontario, they decided to expand their bus network.

The right decision IMO.

I've no idea if Greyhound is ever coming back though in the rest of Ontario.