COVID-19 Manitoba

[Danny D Oh]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

It is definitely time to restore the isolation requirements for Saskatchewan and Alberta.

I think we need to determine travel restrictions and hold them until the pandemic is nominally over.

Going back and forth month by month is worse than being over restricted. We aren't going to be somehow spared of this pandemic as a region and we need to ensure travellers don't create outbreaks. People can still travel just with restrictions.

I think we should be working to develop methods to isolate that are less restrictive, for example traveller can isolate a week before they arrive and a week when they do arrive.

[jmt18325]

We don't need to wait that long anymore. A vaccine with 90% effectiveness is in sight. We should be leaving isolation requirements in effect until that time.

[Festivus]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

We don't need to wait that long anymore. A vaccine with 90% effectiveness is in sight. We should be leaving isolation requirements in effect until that time.

Some of the vaccine trials early data does seem promising, but we are along ways off from actually receiving shots. The very earliest candidates (Oxford's is the most far-ahead, as far as I know) have only just entered Phase II/III of the trials, with the actual testing to be completed this fall/early winter. The actual analysis of the data likely won't be completed until early 2021.

Assuming that it goes well, the Oxford candidate has already begun manufacturing with a partner in India, and could have 10-20 million doses ready for late 2020/early 2021. The main issues is going to be scaling that up.

The first doses will undoubtedly go to the UK, and first to doctors/nurses, and then to the most at risk, and then to the public in general. The most optimistic assessments are that the general public in rich, western nations won't receive the vaccine until late 2021, with the developing world not receiving it until 2022 or 2023. Billions of doses will be required, and it is likely that everyone will require two shots (initial plus a booster a few weeks/months later).

We are still years away from normalcy, I think.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by Festivus

Some of the vaccine trials early data does seem promising, but we are along ways off from actually receiving shots. The very earliest candidates (Oxford's is the most far-ahead, as far as I know) have only just entered Phase II/III of the trials, with the actual testing to be completed this fall/early winter. The actual analysis of the data likely won't be completed until early 2021.

Phase 1 and 2 showed 90% of people developing neutralizing immunity with one dose. That was with more than 1000 people.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-07-20...mmune-response

It will take time, but as soon as the first group of people begin to be vaccinated, some regions will be able to return to a sense of normal.

The point is that there's an end in sight. We need to wait this out as best we can.

[Danny D Oh]

The scary part will be what we don't know about the vaccine in terms of side effects that we will learn along the way. I'm definitely not against vaccines but this is moving really fast, we still learn about vaccines we've been using for decades, their effectiveness and side effects. As a for instance if my wife was pregnant I'd be really hesitant about her receiving a vaccine rushed out so quickly.

[zalf]

Originally Posted by Danny D Oh

The scary part will be what we don't know about the vaccine in terms of side effects that we will learn along the way. I'm definitely not against vaccines but this is moving really fast, we still learn about vaccines we've been using for decades, their effectiveness and side effects. As a for instance if my wife was pregnant I'd be really hesitant about her receiving a vaccine rushed out so quickly.

The speed of development here has much more to do with the enormous economic upside than cutting corners on safety.

Vaccines for a lot of pathogens are slow to develop not because we couldn't do it faster if we put our collective minds to it, but because R&D costs are huge and the ROI isn't certain*. For SARS-CoV-2, the R&D costs are still huge, but the winner gets a money printer.

* For some organisms, it's just fundamentally difficult, like syphilis / Treponema pallidum

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by Danny D Oh

The scary part will be what we don't know about the vaccine in terms of side effects that we will learn along the way.

We know a lot about vaccine basics. That's really not a concern.

[Danny D Oh]

Originally Posted by zalf

The speed of development here has much more to do with the enormous economic upside than cutting corners on safety.

Vaccines for a lot of pathogens are slow to develop not because we couldn't do it faster if we put our collective minds to it, but because R&D costs are huge and the ROI isn't certain*. For SARS-CoV-2, the R&D costs are still huge, but the winner gets a money printer.

* For some organisms, it's just fundamentally difficult, like syphilis / Treponema pallidum

I'm not at all suggesting corners would be cut, much of what we come to know simply cannot be known without the passage of time and decades of knowledge/data

[roccerfeller]

Originally Posted by Danny D Oh

The scary part will be what we don't know about the vaccine in terms of side effects that we will learn along the way. I'm definitely not against vaccines but this is moving really fast, we still learn about vaccines we've been using for decades, their effectiveness and side effects. As a for instance if my wife was pregnant I'd be really hesitant about her receiving a vaccine rushed out so quickly.

Not really

There are ways you develop vaccines and trial them. They require approval from governing bodies and need to show evidence.

On a primary care level, There are guidelines physicians follow for pregnant women. Trimester is important as are whether the vaccine is live or not. It would not be possible for you to get your pregnant wife such a vaccine from a licensed health care provider if it didn’t fall within guidelines


On the actual science level, beyond the cell and microbiology, and immunology, There is a lot about vaccine development itself we know.

Unfortunately general public has little education on this and unwarranted fears propagate as a result.


Not sure what side effects you’re also referring to.

[Wpg_Guy]

Originally Posted by roccerfeller

Not really

There are ways you develop vaccines and trial them. They require approval from governing bodies and need to show evidence.

On a primary care level, There are guidelines physicians follow for pregnant women. Trimester is important as are whether the vaccine is live or not. It would not be possible for you to get your pregnant wife such a vaccine from a licensed health care provider if it didn’t fall within guidelines


On the actual science level, beyond the cell and microbiology, and immunology, There is a lot about vaccine development itself we know.

Unfortunately general public has little education on this and unwarranted fears propagate as a result.


Not sure what side effects you’re also referring to.

Viruses mutate very rapidly, like the seasonal flu vaccine a Covid-19 one will more than likely be no more then 50% effective.

In terms of side effects, vaccines elicit an immune response that in itself can be unpredictable in every subject. Like the vaccines trialed for SARS-CoV-1 that resulted in immune diseased subjects organ damage and death.

The world has never seen a Corona virus vaccine despite on going work since 2003 with SARS-Cov-1 and MERS.

[CoryB]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

We know a lot about vaccine basics. That's really not a concern.

Originally Posted by roccerfeller

On a primary care level, There are guidelines physicians follow for pregnant women. Trimester is important as are whether the vaccine is live or not. It would not be possible for you to get your pregnant wife such a vaccine from a licensed health care provider if it didn’t fall within guidelines

All indications are even if a vaccine can be developed quickly and stop the virus before it mutates to the point a single vaccine cannot contain it, the first public versions will be a live virus version. Due to a range of reasons there is a significant portion of the population that will be medically excluded from receiving that version.

The other harsh reality here is if we could go into a full global lockdown for 14-21 days it should be possible to completely eradicate the virus without the need for a vaccine.

[yveseluj]

Originally Posted by Wpg_Guy

Viruses mutate very rapidly, like the seasonal flu vaccine a Covid-19 one will more than likely be no more then 50% effective.

In terms of side effects, vaccines elicit an immune response that in itself can be unpredictable in every subject. Like the vaccines trialed for SARS-CoV-1 that resulted in immune diseased subjects organ damage and death.

The world has never seen a Corona virus vaccine despite on going work since 2003 with SARS-Cov-1 and MERS.

Man, this is incredibly misleading on a number of fronts.

Originally Posted by Wpg_Guy

Viruses mutate very rapidly, like the seasonal flu vaccine a Covid-19 one will more than likely be no more then 50% effective.

Yes, viruses mutate rapidly, this is why the vaccine will likely need to be administered every year or every other year - similar to the seasonal flu vaccine - but 50% is a lower figure than essentially every vaccine in clinical trials is estimating for efficacy. I don't know where you got this figure from - I'd love to see some citations.

Originally Posted by Wpg_Guy

In terms of side effects, vaccines elicit an immune response that in itself can be unpredictable in every subject. Like the vaccines trialed for SARS-CoV-1 that resulted in immune diseased subjects organ damage and death.

Side effects of vaccines are minor 99.9% of the time because of clinical trials. There will not be widespread severe side effects of a covid-19 vaccine, and to suggest otherwise is scaremongering.

Originally Posted by Wpg_Guy

The world has never seen a Corona virus vaccine despite on going work since 2003 with SARS-Cov-1 and MERS.

And yeah, we've never had a coronavirus vaccine, but that's not an indictment on current efforts. It's a red herring. SARS - perhaps the only other coronavirus where a vaccine would be desired - was easily contained because patients were not contagious until they were symptomatic; there was no need for an expedited process for vaccine research like there is now. Given typical resourcing & funding, the vaccine development life cycle is anywhere from 10-20+ years, which we're still within from the initial SARS outbreak.

[jmt18325]

Manitoba had 18 cases today. It's time to roll things back.

[bomberjet]

I would be interested to know how they trace where the virus came from.

Who are these people (not names, just in general terms). What were they doing. Did they travel to hot spots. Did it come from sporting events, grocery store, being at the park. Will they ever know.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

I would be interested to know how they trace where the virus came from.

Who are these people (not names, just in general terms). What were they doing. Did they travel to hot spots. Did it come from sporting events, grocery store, being at the park. Will they ever know.

It would be interesting to know. There is so little of what we'd consider the typical high risk behaviour going on... relatively little travel, no big sports events/religious gatherings/concerts, lots of people working from home, etc. Even restaurants are still really spaced out, it hasn't felt very crowded in the places that I've been to.

For what it's worth these numbers are still really low. We'll see how things go when kids rae back in school.

[Authentic_City]

Originally Posted by esquire

It would be interesting to know. There is so little of what we'd consider the typical high risk behaviour going on... relatively little travel, no big sports events/religious gatherings/concerts, lots of people working from home, etc. Even restaurants are still really spaced out, it hasn't felt very crowded in the places that I've been to.

For what it's worth these numbers are still really low. We'll see how things go when kids rae back in school.

And then there this (an unnamed patio on Corydon):



https://twitter.com/mbjet/status/1289940313398681602

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by esquire

For what it's worth these numbers are still really low.

Sure, but as we see in places like Victoria, Australia, that can change in a hurry.

[trueviking]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

Manitoba had 18 cases today. It's time to roll things back.

For me personally, I only care about Winnipeg’s numbers. The vast majority of this outbreak has been outside of the city, which says to me it is likely racing through Hutterite colonies. If it wasn’t that, it would be bizarre for Winnipeg to have less than 1/5 of Manitoba’s cases with 2/3 of its population.

Controlling rural outbreaks is important but we need to take what is happening in context. We can’t shut down the city again if the cases are not located there. If the numbers in Winnipeg begin climbing, that has very different connotations than isolated rural colonies. The response has to be more nuanced than just looking at province wide numbers. Where and how it is being transmitted matters.

[harls]

Originally Posted by trueviking

For me personally, I only care about Winnipeg’s numbers.

It will take only one Hutterite slipping into Costco to blow that up.

Unless you want to target them at the perimeter?

[trueviking]

Kind of, yes, actually.


We need to be targeting the infected areas to make sure they are not doing that. We should not be ignoring the problem, but I think we need a more nuanced solution than shut down the province again.

I was definitely hiding under my bed for the first few months of this thing and totally believe that it takes a collective effort. Health is more important than the economy, but I do now feel that we need to be more careful with shut downs, trying to avoid them as much as possible. We are facing very serious long term impact for a lot of people. I am very worried that another shut down will plunge many people into poverty and affect the economy so badly that many will struggle for a long time. Many are teetering on losing their businesses and their livelihood.

If you are from an infected Hutterite Colony, you should not be going to Wal-Mart. If you are from an infected rural community, you should not be coming to Winnipeg. Right now (depending on the weekend numbers) there are only 13 people in Winnipeg with the virus. We need to do everything we can to keep it that way.