Historic trends
It's been difficult to get a finger on the pulse of NL federal politics for one simple reason; Danny Williams tainted the well many years ago and there's been no recovery. We have
not had a normal election period since Williams launched his ABC campaign against Stephen Harper before the 2008 federal election, and its repercussions are still being felt today.
Before ABC, things in NL politics were pretty simple. Liberals and Conservatives, neck and neck, with some small fluctuation and some election oddities (1985 and 1993). Liberals were good for 40-50% of the popular vote, Conservatives good for 30-40%, and the NDP sort of just randomly flapping its arms around without making too much of an impact. Seat break down was, usually, either 5 LIB-2 CON, or 4 LIB-3 CON.
And then ABC happened. And it impacted more than just the Conservative party.
In the 2008 election, the Conservative popular vote crashed as the then-popular mecca-God Sir Daniel Williams told the masses to vote anyone but Conservative. And boy, did we ever listen. However, logic would dictate that these voters would flock to the Liberal party, right? It makes the most sense, correct?
Instead,
Conservative voters brought their vote to the NDP party. The Liberal party benefited very little from the ABC campaign, jumping only ~5% in the popular vote, whereas the NDP party jumped ~20%. And much of it was concentrated in the right spot: St. John's East. Jack Harris can thank Danny Williams for his second stint as an MP. Elsewhere, the NDP pulled record high vote shares, but were not near enough to pull off additional seats (though St. John's South was relatively close).
Moving on to 2011, and Danny Williams is out of politics. The provincial government at the time has given the go-ahead for MHA's to campaign with Conservative MP's if they so wish. Danny is still well-beloved, and he's not actively pushing an ABC campaign, but he's also not singing the praises of Stephen Harper. The Conservatives are breaking out all the stops in NL, they're bringing in some big names to run for them: Fabian Manning, John Ottenheimer, just to name a few. The country is growing tired of minority after minority mandate.
What happens on election night? Well, to start....the Liberals collapsed all across the country. In Newfoundland? Not so much. A 9% drop; not unsubstantial, but compared to how the night was going to go across the country, it was nothing. Across the country, however, an Orange wave swept across the country, as Jack Layton and the NDP surged ahead in popularity for some major gains. As the ABC campaign dissipated in NL, some of those NDP voters from the last election went back to the Conservative party. While there was an orange wave across the country, the NDP vote share in the province declined. HOWEVER, that minor drop in provincial Liberal support? That was split; Liberals held well in rural NL, but absolutely tanked in urban NL. This handed the NDP a second seat in St. John's South, and the complete drop in Liberal support, plus tepid Conservative support in St. John's East lead to Jack Harris' second easy victory. Across the island though, Conservative support rebounded, though not to the same degree it was before the ABC campaign. They picked up a surprise seat in Labrador, and came close to picking up Avalon again. (NOTE: If the 2011 election were held under the current Avalon boundaries, the Conservatives would have won).
And then 2015. Danny Williams and his ABC campaign are a thing of the past, and the public perception of Williams in NL is overly negative. However, there is a new ABC campaign arising. One might say that Newfoundland was ahead of the pack on the ABC campaign. What we did in 2008 came to full light across the nation in 2015, as most of Canada had just about enough with Harper and the Conservatives. Not much to say about this; Newfoundland went with the flow of the country in this election. Conservative numbers hit an all-time low, even worse than the 2008 Danny Williams ABC campaign. However, the NDP vote also collapsed as everyone jumped on the Liberal train for some old fashioned strategic voting. Jack Harris, finally facing some stiff competition, couldn't get the job done. Ryan Clearly couldn't hold on to his NDP seat in St. John's South, and every other riding in NL was a complete Liberal blowout. Judy Foote won with one of the highest vote percentages in the country. NL followed suit with the rest of Canada and rid themselves of the Harper Conservatives.
So now enters 2019. We really have no idea what to expect since the last 3 elections were so polarizing. The ABC campaigns were more anti-Harper than they were anti-Conservative, and plenty of people have got behind the Scheer Conservative brand. And Jack Harris is back in for round 4, and the NDP are surging. Basing any projections off the last 3 elections are useless, each election since 2008 has had some external factor poisoning the electoral well in NL (ABC in 2008, 2015, and the collapse of the Liberal party in 2011). The last truly "normal" election was in 2006, and that was so long ago that it's hard to compare present day to that.
So what can we infer from history, even if it may be tainted?
- Liberal strength has often hovered around 45% provincially, even during ABC years. Last elections 65%+ is unsustainable and will drop back to the norm this election.
- The NDP could honestly be anywhere, but will likely be near 20%. They're not being handed Conservative supporters anymore.
- Conservative support is an absolute wildcard that is very hard to predict. If people associate ABC with all Conservatives, then it'll likely stay low. If it was truly an anti-Harper rhetoric, then it may rebound back to the historic average. The 2011 election is a good indicator of what a "sort of ABC but sort of not really" popular vote would look like, near 30%. It'll likely rebound back to near this anyway, with the possibility of going higher.
- The Greens will likely continue to be a non-contender, though they may be able to snag a decent chunk of votes in Avalon thanks to Greg Malone.