How do you see Detroit in 20 years?

[the urban politician]

I actually haven't been to Detroit since a wedding last summer, but I kind of want to know what your predictions are regarding Detroit's hoped for "revitalization"?

We are seeing the beginnings of sustained revitalization of its downtown, and jobs are definitely moving in. Here's just another new office with 500 tech jobs coming to Corktown:

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/logi...0-job-tech-hub

For many, the journey is daunting, and for some, maybe impossible. But I view Detroit as being perhaps analogous to where Chicago was 30 years ago (albeit from a MUCH worse starting point, but same concept--starting downtown and revitalizing outward from there). The downtown is reborn, and perhaps people start building communities and revitalizing properties adjacent to this.

Where do you guys see Detroit in 20 years? Will it be recognizable, or do you think things will still look pretty bombed out in the downtown adjacent hoods? Any predictions?

[RowanGrad]

It will look like this.


Credit goes to Sony Interactive Entertainment.
https://www.sonyers.com/detroit-beco...ucion-ps4-pro/

[uaarkson]

I think Detroit is a unique case, albeit with similarities to Chicago. The thing about Detroit is that its core neighborhoods are completely gone - they are literally a blank slate. This could be a playground for developers, and I hope Detroit in general becomes sort of a testing ground for innovative urban design. The utter absence of NIMBYs is a big advantage. With that said, the current pace is not going to continue without a sustained effort to bring new, quality jobs into the city.

[eschaton]

The best-case scenario for Detroit is more akin to Philly than Chicago, IMHO. As we discussed in another thread, Chicago's North Side is totally unlike anything else in the Midwest, in that it's an intact, high-density, high-wealth band of neighborhoods running from Downtown almost all the way up to Evanston.

Philly though, is to a certain degree Center City - or at least "Greater Center City" surrounded by less wealthy/desirable areas. Even here the analogy doesn't totally hold though. I mean Northeast Philly and South Philly didn't really go through any major decline. And much of Northwest Philadelphia remained as a "favored quarter" even during the worst period for the city.

[Crawford]

We're talking the city proper, only? Detroit proper won't ever truly be a mini-Chicago, because the most urban neighborhoods are mostly eviscerated. The region, as a whole, kinda feels like a Chicago mini-me, though.

If there's a long-term boom, there would probably be lots of Sunbelt-ish urban infill, like you see in Uptown Dallas and the like. But I'm skeptical, given that A. Much of the current revitalization is due to one man and company and B. The region has had record auto profits for years now, and the boom is gonna end badly (as it always does).

That said, downtown and surroundings are clearly on an upward trend and Metro Detroit is (arguably) currently the healthiest major Great Lakes metro overall, with modest growth, strong economy and significant wealth accumulation (though all owing to the current auto boom).

[The North One]

Originally Posted by Crawford

We're talking the city proper, only? Detroit proper won't ever truly be a mini-Chicago, because the most urban neighborhoods are mostly eviscerated. The region, as a whole, kinda feels like a Chicago mini-me, though.

If there's a long-term boom, there would probably be lots of Sunbelt-ish urban infill, like you see in Uptown Dallas and the like. But I'm skeptical, given that A. Much of the current revitalization is due to one man and company and B. The region has had record auto profits for years now, and the boom is gonna end badly (as it always does).

If you follow the development thread really none of the infill has been "sunbelt" esque, looks nothing like Dallas. They usually involve underground parking or hidden parking or request variances for less parking all together, mixed use mid-rises and retail/units that directly front the streets and carriage homes that front the alley.

People always talk about the neighborhoods being decimated but if you've actually been to them yourself and explored you realize there is still a tremendous amount of prewar development and good urbanism to build off of, much of it is patchy but there is still an advantage to new development as it has context to build off of and the city's alleys make it much easier to hide things like parking.

I think the biggest problem to Detroit's urbanism are the highways, much of them need to go or be capped and then you have slumlords like the Ilitchs who just sit on property speculating it. And then there's public transit, but I think that will come once dinosaur leaders like Brooks Patterson are gone (which will be very very soon).

Gilbert is far from the only person investing at this point. I think I can confidently say now that it has serious momentum and a life of it's own now. You've got thousands of tech related jobs coming in, major banking HQ's, institutions like UofM now finally taking note and moving in, a lot of international attention. Obviously the city will still need titans like Gilbert to make big things happen but this is beyond just billionaires playing sim city. Also the auto boom already ended, the city is years away from those record profits and yet Michigan still hits job growth records.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by The North One

If you follow the development thread really none of the infill has been "sunbelt" esque, looks nothing like Dallas. They usually involve underground parking or hidden parking or request variances for less parking all together, mixed use mid-rises and retail/units that directly front the streets and carriage homes that front the alley.

First, none of this is true. I'm not gonna go project by project, but I'm well aware what's being built in Detroit, and almost nothing has "underground or hidden parking". There are very few new construction projects in Detroit in this economic cycle, BTW, at least to this point. The tallest buildings built in the last few decades are casinos.

Second, you need to re-read my post. I wasn't responding to what has been built, but what may be built, going forward, assuming economic conditions remain bright.

Originally Posted by The North One

People always talk about the neighborhoods being decimated but if you've actually been to them yourself and explored you realize there is still a tremendous amount of prewar development and good urbanism to build off of, much of it is patchy but there is still an advantage to new development as it has context to build off of and the city's alleys make it much easier to hide things like parking.

I've explored Detroit probably as much as anyone on SSP, by foot, bike and car, and know your statement is categorically nonsense. Detroit has lost like 80-90% of its prewar fabric within the old city boundaries (slightly beyond Grand Blvd.). There's very little left. This is why, if the city truly boomed, the urban infill would be analagous to Uptown Dallas - it would be placemaking from (almost) scratch.

Originally Posted by The North One

Also the auto boom already ended, the city is years away from those record profits and yet Michigan still hits job growth records.

It's pretty clear you're not in the industry. The Big 3 (and their suppliers, which employ far more regionally) had record profits this last calendar year, and the record bonus checks are just hitting people's accounts right now, or in the coming month or so. Not sustainable.

[The North One]

Originally Posted by Crawford

First, none of this is true. I'm not gonna go project by project, but I'm well aware what's being built in Detroit, and almost nothing has "underground or hidden parking". There are very few new construction projects in Detroit in this economic cycle, BTW, at least to this point. The tallest buildings built in the last few decades are casinos.

Nope, city modern has all hidden or underground parking, Hudson site is all underground and requested variances for less parking, Monroe block is all underground, the corktown development almost finished has no visible parking, statler city has only underground parking, all the new Brush Park proposals have no above ground parking. You don't seem to be aware at all, anybody who simply follows the compilations thread knows what I'm talking about. Detroit is seeing a good deal of new development maybe not as much as the fastest growing ones but the city also had to renovate an absolute shit ton of pre-war buildings in the last ten years when that's finally all done you'll see lots of more new construction.

I've explored Detroit probably as much as anyone on SSP, by foot, bike and car, and know your statement is categorically nonsense. Detroit has lost like 80-90% of its prewar fabric within the old city boundaries (slightly beyond Grand Blvd.). There's very little left. This is why, if the city truly boomed, the urban infill would be analagous to Uptown Dallas - it would be placemaking from (almost) scratch.

Outside of the main core Southwest, Corktown, West Village, Jefferson Chalmers, North End, Woodbridge, North End, New Center are all full of pre-war urbanism and also seeing new urban friendly development. You pulled this 90-80% thing out of thin air.

It's pretty clear you're not in the industry. The Big 3 (and their suppliers, which employ far more regionally) had record profits this last calendar year, and the record bonus checks are just hitting people's accounts right now, or in the coming month or so. Not sustainable.

Source your claim, auto sales peaked in 2016 and have fallen ever since.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/us-a...ince-2014.html

Auto sales aren't the driving force for re-investment in urban Detroit anyway.

[uaarkson]

Originally Posted by The North One

Auto sales aren't the driving force for re-investment in urban Detroit anyway.

Bingo.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by The North One

Nope, city modern has all hidden or underground parking, Hudson site is all underground and requested variances for less parking, Monroe block is all underground, the corktown development almost finished has no visible parking, statler city has only underground parking, all the new Brush Park proposals have no above ground parking.

Seriously? Every single project you listed, excepting City Modern, doesn't exist. We're talking reality in 2019, not your predictions for the future. I don't care if you're speculating some project in 2025 will or won't have parking, it's irrelevant.

And City Modern is a townhouse development being built by a suburban McMansion developer (with normal driveways and garages, obviously). I have no clue why you would use City Modern as an example of transit-oriented urbanism, as the same stuff exists in practically every suburb in America.

Originally Posted by The North One

Outside of the main core Southwest, Corktown, West Village, Jefferson Chalmers, North End, Woodbridge, North End, New Center are all full of pre-war urbanism and also seeing new urban friendly development. You pulled this 90-80% thing out of thin air.

This is obviously untrue; none of these neighborhoods are remotely intact. Some (Jefferson-Chalmers, North End) are totally bombed out and barely exist.

Originally Posted by The North One

Auto sales aren't the driving force for re-investment in urban Detroit anyway.

Yes, clearly the auto industry has little economic impact on the Detroit region. The fact that the region's fortunes did a 180 at the exact same time the auto industry boomed is totally coincidental. And obviously tech is irrelevant to Bay Area, the financial industry irrelevant to NYC, casinos irrelevant to Vegas and theme parks irrelevant to Orlando...

[lio45]

Originally Posted by The North One

... but I think that will come once dinosaur leaders like Brooks Patterson are gone (which will be very very soon).

He's still around?

I recall reading this (probably on SSP) at the time it was published, and finding the guy... fascinating (in a time capsule way).

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...p-dead-detroit

[The North One]

Originally Posted by lio45

He's still around?

I recall reading this (probably on SSP) at the time it was published, and finding the guy... fascinating (in a time capsule way).

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...p-dead-detroit

Yes unfortunately, he just barely got reelected in 2016 during the trump wave. He's old as dirt and finally retiring and will not win another election even if he wanted to, Oakland county now skews blue and now has more democrats in control than republicans.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The region has had record auto profits for years now, and the boom is gonna end badly (as it always does).

^ In typical goal-post maneuvering fashion, you regularly apply this standard negatively to Detroit ("Oh, well that wealth is just there due to the auto industry! Just wait and see") without doing the same to other cities who are pretty much thriving due to one industry as well (tech).

There are a lot of cities right now booming, and as much as some boosters don't want to admit it, the tech boom isn't going to fuel everything forever.

The good news for the auto industry and Detroit is, it's a very mature industry that's already taken its licks multiple times before and rebounded. And cars just aren't going anywhere--ever.

I totally see some real momentum for Detroit, and it's not just all the work of one guy. That's the stupidest nonsense I've ever heard...

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ In typical goal-post maneuvering fashion, you regularly apply this standard negatively to Detroit ("Oh, well that wealth is just there due to the auto industry! Just wait and see") without doing the same to other cities who are pretty much thriving due to one industry as well (tech).

What are you talking about? Can you please quote when I claimed the Bay Area wasn't in a tech bubble? San Jose MSA will crash harder than Detroit MSA.

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I totally see some real momentum for Detroit, and it's not just all the work of one guy. That's the stupidest nonsense I've ever heard...

Dan Gilbert owns the majority of prime downtown real estate. It's absolute fact. If he ever bought the GM HQ he would own basically everything.

This is an (outdated) map of Gilbert's holdings downtown, which have since expanded. He practically owns the whole freakin thing. He has been great for Detroit, but it's extremely risky to have the city's fate in the hands of an online mortgage guy.

https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hits...by-dan-gilbert

[eschaton]

I mean, what's the best case scenario for Detroit in 20 years? Basically Downtown, Corktown, Midtown, and maybe New Center getting significant infill and population gains?

The other 90%+ of the city is either blighted as hell, functionally speaking suburban (dominated by block after block of detached single-family homes) or both. I could see Mexicantown gentrifying I guess, given it's in decent shape, semi-walkable, and a lot of black people don't live there. But I can't think of any neighborhoods less primed for a renaissance than 80%-90% black and structurally suburban neighborhoods with no real walkable amenities.

[uaarkson]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I mean, what's the best case scenario for Detroit in 20 years? Basically Downtown, Corktown, Midtown, and maybe New Center getting significant infill and population gains?

The other 90%+ of the city is either blighted as hell, functionally speaking suburban (dominated by block after block of detached single-family homes) or both. I could see Mexicantown gentrifying I guess, given it's in decent shape, semi-walkable, and a lot of black people don't live there. But I can't think of any neighborhoods less primed for a renaissance than 80%-90% black and structurally suburban neighborhoods with no real walkable amenities.

As gentrification creeps outward along the radial avenues I think you can expect to see the inner neighborhoods redevelop. It really is a matter of just growing out from the core, plus time. But you're right, most of Detroit's outer neighborhoods are probably going to just continue to disappear. If the city and developers are smart, they'll redevelop these places denser than they were previously.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I mean, what's the best case scenario for Detroit in 20 years? Basically Downtown, Corktown, Midtown, and maybe New Center getting significant infill and population gains?

I think the absolute best case scenario would be gentrification up Woodward, up to Palmer Park or thereabouts, linking up with the most prosperous, gentrified inner ring suburbs (Ferndale-Berkley-Royal Oak-Birmingham corridor). The Woodward corridor has, by far, the best remaining built form. Woodward was built for the upper classes, and the stuff that remains is extremely high quality, with some amazing art deco apartment buildings.

But again, even Woodward is pretty sparse, especially north of New Center. Highland Park (a city within Detroit) is about as blighted as it gets; like East St. Louis-level troubled.

Originally Posted by eschaton

The other 90%+ of the city is either blighted as hell, functionally speaking suburban (dominated by block after block of detached single-family homes) or both.

Bingo. This is the biggest urban planning challenge. Detroit had lots of neighborhoods with good fabric, but those are the most decimated neighborhoods (but now of course the fastest improving). Detroit had even more neighborhoods with suburbanesque fabric, and those tend to be more intact, but are poor, black and fast-declining. It's not clear how those areas compete with adjacent Detroit suburbs (which look largely the same, but with better schools/services, safer and still dirt cheap).

[JManc]

Totally run by Omni Consumer Products with robot cops patrolling the street. People driving around in 6000 SUX's.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by JManc

Totally run by Omni Consumer Products with robot cops patrolling the street. People driving around in 6000 SUX's.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I actually haven't been to Detroit since a wedding last summer, but I kind of want to know what your predictions are regarding Detroit's hoped for "revitalization"?

We are seeing the beginnings of sustained revitalization of its downtown, and jobs are definitely moving in. Here's just another new office with 500 tech jobs coming to Corktown:

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/logi...0-job-tech-hub

For many, the journey is daunting, and for some, maybe impossible. But I view Detroit as being perhaps analogous to where Chicago was 30 years ago (albeit from a MUCH worse starting point, but same concept--starting downtown and revitalizing outward from there). The downtown is reborn, and perhaps people start building communities and revitalizing properties adjacent to this.

Where do you guys see Detroit in 20 years? Will it be recognizable, or do you think things will still look pretty bombed out in the downtown adjacent hoods? Any predictions?

If there is not a major recession, Detroit will certainly be unrecognizable. Corktown is going to be one of those "never saw it coming" stories. Corktown is the analogy of a Bushwick or Greenpoint in Brooklyn, trendy but still a little rough around the edges (yes, much less intense, I know, please don't respond to tell me that). And, until now, off the beaten path.

For the past decade, most of the energy has been going north along Woodward Avenue from downtown, largely in anticipation of the QLine and stadium projects. Ford's plan for the Michigan Central Station is a huge game changer for Corktown in ways that we probably still don't grasp. The Coyote Logistics news is without a doubt related. Expect to see energy start radiating west of downtown more intensely along Michigan Avenue.

There are also infrastructure projects, like the bridge-to-bridge riverfront project, decommissioning of I-375, and the Joe Louis Greenway, that will materialize in the next 5 years and make the core unrecognizable to an 80s baby native like me.