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Originally Posted by 240glt
^ I'm not sure if I agree, but my impressions are based on the media's reporting of the conference in Red Deer, and who seems to be popping up in support of the AP on social media. There may be a smattering of liberals there, but that's really not a lot of people here in Alberta
I think you're way off in suggesting moderate NDP'ers are jumping to the AP. I think the moderate NDP'ers are actually quite happy with the current government. It's the more ideological, less pragmatic NDP supporters that are probably not happy.. and those folks are going to be even less happy with the AP. As a moderate NDP member myself, that's how I see it.
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My impressions of the AB Party conference in Red Deer are formed by the over 50 people I know who made the trek to RD, most on the same bus. I Also looked at a tonne of twitter photos to see who is in the picture.
So when I talk about the Federal Liberal Party of Canada invading the AB Party, this is really through the Calgary political scene lens. Most of the faces I saw in photos from the RD event are the war room staff, volunteers, and campaign organizers.
I find social media photos to be better than mass media photos. If you're a political operative or even just veteran of one political campaign; you know how to avoid getting in the background of mass media photos. This is much harder to do with social media photos.
When I say moderate NDPers are jumping ship to AB Party, I'm talking about Calgary based support. I don't have any insight into Edmonton or rural AB. In Calgary, a lot of moderate NDP see themselves getting wiped out in 2019. The suburban Calgary electorate is mostly looking at 2015 as a big gigantic mistake that can only be fixed with a flux capacitor carrying Delorean going 88 mph.
That is why moderates like Karen McPherson are going from NDP to AB Party. This is a response to the civic election results where very conservative Jason Kenny supporter candidates were elected in the same communities that went
NDP in 2015. The same analysis of civic election results is why Ric Fraser (elected PC, now independent) is hesitant to become the 3rd AB Party MLA. Fraser's riding mirrors most of ward 14, which voted 86% to UCP/Kenny supported Peter Demong.