Manitoba Provincial Election | 2016

[vid]

If I were voting in Manitoba, I'd probably just eat my ballot.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Chrisforpm

So the final two polls came out tonight.

Insightrix
PC 49
NDP 22
LIB 19
GRN 9

Insights West
PC 53
NDP 28
LIB 10
GRN 7

These are cheap opt-in on-line panel pollsters and Insights West is from BC. Not even the media here in BC report opinion polls by Insights West.

And Mainstreet is also a cheap IVR pollster.

Based upon polling history, these guys can be quite off in terms of "actual" results.

What I am curious about is what happened to long-time, Winnipeg-based pollster Probe Research in this election? They are an expensive yet quite accurate (relatively-speaking) CATI pollster. First time that Probe Research has not released MB provincial public opinion polls, during an election campaign, in decades. Perhaps just too expensive, as a CATI pollster, these days. I dunno.

That said, yep, looks like a PC majority tomorrow night.

[trebor204]

My Prediction:
PC 46
NDP 10
LIB 1

[Chrisforpm]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

These are cheap opt-in on-line panel pollsters and Insights West is from BC. Not even the media here in BC report opinion polls by Insights West.

And Mainstreet is also a cheap IVR pollster.

Based upon polling history, these guys can be quite off in terms of "actual" results.

What I am curious about is what happened to long-time, Winnipeg-based pollster Probe Research in this election? They are an expensive yet quite accurate (relatively-speaking) CATI pollster. First time that Probe Research has not released MB provincial public opinion polls, during an election campaign, in decades. Perhaps just too expensive, as a CATI pollster, these days. I dunno.

That said, yep, looks like a PC majority tomorrow night.

Probe did a poll at the end of March/beginning of April and then suddenly stopped. Not sure why. In any event, mainstreet was the only one to call Trudeau's majority correctly.

[Urban recluse]

It really comes down to lies, and taxing Manitobans to death with no real improvement in anything: NDP.

[bomberjet]

Lies? I wouldn't vote for Pallister if you're worried about lying. That goes for basically every politician there is. They all lie, all the time.

Hopefully everyone gets out and votes today. No complaining about how shitty the government is if you didn't vote!

[The Unknown Poster]

It will be fun watching the returns tonight.

Ill be most interested in seeing Wab lose and hopefully Cryin Dave in St Norbert loses too!

[Urban recluse]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

Lies? I wouldn't vote for Pallister if you're worried about lying. That goes for basically every politician there is. They all lie, all the time.

Hopefully everyone gets out and votes today. No complaining about how shitty the government is if you didn't vote!

Ladies and gentlemen, Bomberjet does not mind another percentage point or two added to the PST. What am I saying, Selinger would never, ever do that. Give your head a shake. Selinger is a lying prick. It does not get any worse than him.

[bomberjet]

Like I said, all politicians are liars. I'm fine with the PST the way it is. By the way; I don't support Sellinger, Pallister or Rana.

You know Pallister arranged phony candidates for opposing parties back in the 90's right? So PC's had a better chance at winning. Rigging elections. Bigger lie than anything Sellinger's done.

[drew]

I have a sneaking suspicion that Pallister will not be able to follow through on his promise to reduce the PST down to 7% once the economic realities of MB become clear.

And if he still does it, I don't think we will be all that happy with the cut-backs necessary to make it happen.

[bomberjet]

Pallister says he will cut back the PST within his first term. So in 4 years, maybe, is what's they've said. But he still wants to build infrastructure, etc, etc. So we'll see if he can find the money. I hope it happens, but like I said don't have a problem if the PST stayed right where it is.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by drew

I have a sneaking suspicion that Pallister will not be able to follow through on his promise to reduce the PST down to 7% once the economic realities of MB become clear.

And if he still does it, I don't think we will be all that happy with the cut-backs necessary to make it happen.

Harper cut the GST even though it didn't make sense because he badly needed momentum to break through the minority logjam. Pallister doesn't need to worry about that... he'll have a solid majority, and Manitoba politics being what it is, he can probably count on a second majority as long as he doesn't screw up catastrophically. So I could see him kicking the PST can down the road to the last possible moment before the next election... he could get traction in two elections with one PST cut!

That said, cutting the PST right now is misguided.

[bomberjet]

Maybe Pallister will play off Sellinger tactics. Keep using the same announcements over and over to look like he's doing good!

[Cyro]

Thread Poll closes at 8:00 pm CST ! Get your vote in now...

Actually I think esquire mentioned what the poll would have looked like if we re-set it a week ago or yesterday for that matter..Liberals would not be sitting at 18 at his point, NDP, 10, again much less. The no vote other party selection could have been much higher...Let's see what the PC's can do in the next 4 years..

[Urban recluse]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

Like I said, all politicians are liars. I'm fine with the PST the way it is. By the way; I don't support Sellinger, Pallister or Rana.

You know Pallister arranged phony candidates for opposing parties back in the 90's right? So PC's had a better chance at winning. Rigging elections. Bigger lie than anything Sellinger's done.

Whoopee. Where's your proof anyway?

[Andy6]

PC 48 NDP 7 Lib 1 Grn 1

[Danny D Oh]

Originally Posted by Chrisforpm

So the final two polls came out tonight.

Insightrix
PC 49
NDP 22
LIB 19
GRN 9

Insights West
PC 53
NDP 28
LIB 10
GRN 7

Expect a shift of epic proportions tomorrow. With our first past the post system and the PC's at, near or above 50% we should see something similar to what happened in SK. A lopsided win for the govt (in this case PC) and a small and ineffective opposition.

Terrifying prospect given that the PC's have done nothing in this campaign to earn that kind of result. The only thing going for them is that they aren't the other guys. Too bad we don't have enough parties to actually have a chance of electing a minority government.

[vjose32]

Pallister is an idiot who will privatize things left and right and cut others imo. His refusal to deny anything regarding privatization is a clear sign of this.

[Festivus]

Originally Posted by Danny D Oh

Terrifying prospect given that the PC's have done nothing in this campaign to earn that kind of result. The only thing going for them is that they aren't the other guys. Too bad we don't have enough parties to actually have a chance of electing a minority government.

It's basically like the NDP in Alberta (in that they simply weren't the other guys). Only I consider the Manitoba PCs much worse for Manitoba than the NDP are for Alberta.

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by Festivus

It's basically like the NDP in Alberta (in that they simply weren't the other guys). Only I consider the Manitoba PCs much worse for Manitoba than the NDP are for Alberta.

I believe it will be an advantage for the province to have a government that's focused on the growth of the province rather than on the growth of the government. There may be the possibility of starting to pick off businesses that aren't enjoying life in Alberta so much anymore, reversing the trend of the past 40 years -- at least a little bit.