AUS sets new passenger record

[LoneStarMike]

Although ABIA hasn't issued their official press release yet, they did post the December Activity Report earlier today

pdf file

December 2006 saw 687,084 passengers, an increase of 8.73% over last December.

Last year's total of 7,683,545 was an all time record and - as predicted - this year AUS topped out at 8,261,310 passengers, the first time in history that AUS has surpassed the 8 million mark.

2006's additional 577,765 passengers represents an increase of 7.5% over last year's totals.

Good. These new visitors will help fill up all the new hotel rooms recently completed and planned for the future.

[Mopacs]

VERY good news! What do you think contributed the most to the increase in traffic? Business or Tourist/Leisure flyers? I'm guessing with the improving economy, its the former, more so than the latter.

[Greggklar]

Not a surprise since the West and East coast continue to relocate here, that followed by job growth will continue to trend of more travelers through ABIA.

[rad707]

this is a national trend, not specific to austin.

does anyone know when the airport will reach capacity? i wonder when they will expand the terminal...we could probably reach a projection based on current growth rates (and assuming another plane isn't hijacked).

[potts]

AUS is doing quite well! I believe last year AUS surpassed big brother SAT in terms of number of passengers. AUS certainly has better nonstops than SAT with service to cities such as BOS, SEA, SJC, JFK, LGA, and regional cities like LBB, AMA, and MFE. Good for Austin!

[LoneStarMike]

Originally Posted by Mopacs

VERY good news! What do you think contributed the most to the increase in traffic? Business or Tourist/Leisure flyers? I'm guessing with the improving economy, its the former, more so than the latter.

I think getting JetBlue at AUS, an improving economy and more business travelers were responsible for much of the growth.

Just for kicks I went to the DOT Consumer Air Fare Report and compared AUS-NYC and AUS-BOS O&D statistics for Q2 2005 - several months before JetBlue launched AUS service to Q2 2006 a few months after they arrived here.

AUS - NYC

In APR - JUN 2005, NYC was Austin's second most popular destination with an average of 695 daily passengers on the route. The average fare (among all carriers) was $269.63. CO was the market share leader with a 40.20% share and an average fare of $307.81. AA was the "low fare" leader with a 37.87% share and an average fare of $258.63

Fast-forward to APR - JUN 2006.

NYC is still Austin's second most popular destination (behind Dallas) with an average of 1192 daily passengers on the route. The average fare (among all carriers) has dropped to $207.53. JetBlue's avg. fare was $167.51 and their market share was 36.42% making them both the market share leader and the low fare leader on this route.

AUS - BOS

In APR - JUN 2005, BOS was Austin's 21st most popular desination with an average of 227 daily passengers on the route. The average fare (among all carriers) was $285.85. AA was the market share leader with a 56.70% share and an average fare of $299.83. CO was the "low fare" leader with a 15.14% share and an average fare of $270.80

Fast-forward to APR - JUN 2006.

BOS is now Austin's 11th most popular destination with an average of 431 daily passengers on the route. The average fare (among all carriers) has dropped to $218.39. JetBlue's avg. fare was $178.30 and their market share was 39.40% making them both the market share leader and the low fare leader on this route.

These were all the markets from AUS that had at least 20 passengers per day flying between the two cities as of Q2 2006.

Rank/City/Avg. daily passengers

01. Dallas/Fort Worth, TX - 1653
02. New York, NY - 1192
03. Chicago, IL - 886
04. Los Angeles, CA - 731
05. San Jose, CA - 676
06. Las Vegas, NV - 624
07. Houston, TX - 595
08. Phoenix, AZ - 535
09. Denver, CO - 521
10. Baltimore, MD - 473
11. Boston, MA - 431
12. Washington DC - 420
13. Atlanta, GA - 405
14. Seattle, WA - 358
15. El Paso, TX - 391
16. San Diego, CA - 354
17. Nashville, TN - 287
18. Lubbock, TX - 284
19. Raleigh/Durham, NC - 244
20. Orlando, FL - 243
21. Philadelphia, PA - 236
22. Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN - 233
23. San Francisco, CA - 208
24. Tampa, FL- 197
25. Portland, OR - 194
26. Kansas City, MO - 190
27. Albuquerque, NM - 185 {tie}
27. Oakland, CA - 185 (tie)
29. Harlingen, TX - 181
30. Detroit, MI - 178
31. Fort Lauderdale, FL - 177
32. Sacramento, CA - 169
33. New Orleans, LA - 166
34. Midland/Odessa, TX - 156
35. Santa Ana, CA - 153
36. Amarillo, TX - 148 (tie)
36. Salt Lake City, UT - 148 (tie)
38. Cleveland - 143
39. Oklahoma City, OK - 133 (tie)
39. St. Louis, MO - 133 (tie)
41. Ontario, CA - 132
42. Indianapolis, IN - 121
43. Columbus, OH - 120
44. Tulsa, OK - 119
45. Little Rock, AR - 106
46. Hartford, CT - 100
47. Pittsburgh, PA - 99
48. Jacksonville, FL - 98
49. Charlotte, NC - 92
50. Norfolk, VA - 84
51. Miami, FL - 78
52. Buffalo, NY - 75
53. Burbank, CA - 74
54. Reno, NV - 72
55. Manchester, NH - 70
56. Cincinnatti, OH - 67
57. Birmingham, AL - 65 (tie)
57. Providence, RI - 65 (tie)
59. Richmond, VA - 63
60. Albany, NY - 58 (tie)
60. Tucson, AZ - 58 (tie)
62. Omaha,NE - 56
63. Fort Meyers, FL - 53
64. West Palm Beach, FL - 51
65. Milwaukee, WI - 50
66. Jackson, MS - 49
67. Boise, ID - 45
68. Colorado Springs, CO - 41 (tie)
68. Lexington, KY - 41 (tie)
70. Spokane, WA - 38
71. Syracuse, NY - 37
72. Baton Rouge, LA - 36
73. Fayetteville, AR - 35 (tie)
73. Rochester, NY - 35 (tie)
75. Greensboro/High Point, NC - 34
76. Louisiville, KY - 30 (tie)
76. Savannah, GA - 30 (tie)
78. Burlington, VT - 29 (tie)
78. McAllen, TX - 29 (tie)
80. Billings, MT - 27
81. Knoxville, TN - 26
82. Huntsville, AL - 25 (tie)
82. Memphis, TN - 25 (tie)
84. Des Moines, IA - 24 (tie)
84. Fresno, CA - 24 (tie)
84. Islip/Long Island, NY - 24 (tie)
87. Cedar Rapids, IA - 23 (tie)
87. Charleston, SC - 23 (tie)
89. Grand Rapids, MI - 22 (tie)
89. Madison, WI - 22 (tie)
91. Portland, ME 21
92. Wichita, KS - 20

Seattle had been Austin's most popular destination that didn't have nonstop service by any carrier, but of course AA recently announced one daily roudtrip beginning in April. Once that happens, Philadelphia will be the most popular destination from Austin with no nonstop service. Maybe when US Airways works out all the kinks with it's merger with America West, we'll see service to there. I hope.

I would love to see Air Tran come to Austin. Right now, Delta is the only carrier offering nonstop flights to Atlanta and in Q2, 2006 the average one-way fare in that market (among all carrirs) was $307.87. That works out to about 37.9 cents per mile.

Delta's market share was around 60% and their avg. fare was $343.72 (42.3 cents per mile)

American was the "low fare" leader on this route (via a connection at DFW). Their market share was 20.5% and their avg. fare was $224.79 or about 27 cents per mile.

AirTran would most likely fly the route nonstop and have an avg. fare of around 23 cents per mile like they do out of HOU and DFW. If that were to happen, I think you'd see traffic between Atlanta and Austin increase, just like what happened in the Boston and New York City markets after JetBlue came here.

[Trae]

JetBlue is really helping out AUS. How is San Antonio's airport doing?

[potts]

Originally Posted by TraeSlab713

JetBlue is really helping out AUS. How is San Antonio's airport doing?

San Antonio International Airport is doing quite well, actually. It is currently in the midst of a multimilion dollar expansion program that will include a new terminal, an extension of one of the existing runways, and a series of elevated roadways that will improve access to the airport. Aeromexico also recently began nonstop 737 flights to MEX (a flight that AUS recieved as well). Last year, United Express attempted to begin a mini-hub at the airport with a bunch of oddball routes such as OMA, TUL, COS, and OKC among others. These routes were quickly dropped. There is much speculation that JetBlue Airways will announce nonstop service to JFK and possibly BOS or IAD in the near future, but I'll believe that when I see it.

[LoneStarMike]

Originally Posted by TraeSlab713

How is San Antonio's airport doing?

There was a press release issued earlier in the year that said SAT was expected to top 8 milion also.

Link (pdf file)

News Release
San Antonio International Airport on Pace to Set Another Passenger Record in 2006
Mid-year count has airport on pace to top 8 million mark for first time

San Antonio
International Airport

The total number of passengers at San Antonio International Airport continues to climb toward uncharted territory with a mid-year total of 3,985,043. That number represents a year-to-date total through the month of June. In 2005 a new all-time record was set in regards to the total number of passengers with the final number landing at 7,425,983.

Now in 2006, it looks as though the record high is going to be shattered yet again. Through the month of June, passenger levels are running about 10% higher than the record-setting pace set last year. If that trend continues, then San Antonio International Airport could very well hit the 8 million mark for the first time in its history.

Passenger Totals at SAT
2000 - 7,305,335
2001 - 6,904396
2002 - 6,714,328
2003 - 6,535,954
2004 - 6,997,659
2005 - 7,425,983
2006 - 3,985,043 (Through June)

Originally Posted by potts

There is much speculation that JetBlue Airways will announce nonstop service to JFK and possibly BOS or IAD in the near future, but I'll believe that when I see it.

I don't think jetBlue at SAT is such a stretch. In fact, I think you'd see them go to SAT before they'd try DFW

Here's info on the SAT - New York City market

SAT - NYC

In APR - JUN 2006, NYC was San Antonio's fifth most popular destination with an average of 633 daily passengers on the route. The average fare (among all carriers) was $260.03. CO was the market share leader with a 57.92% share and an average fare of $262.75. AA was the "low fare" leader with a 20.34% share and an average fare of $261.58.

The figures (IMO) for SAT - NYC right now look like they did for AUS - NYC before jetlue came here.

Although the article below is 18 months old, it's still a good read because it talks about how important New York is to San Antonio.

July, 2005 article

"San Antonio's business community never fought harder than it did in the 1990s for a direct flight to a New York City airport. Continental Airlines took a chance with a nonstop between San Antonio and its Newark, N.J., hub. Passenger volume has been consistently high enough that the route still operates with twice-a-day flights."

CO still flies SAT-EWR, but they're not a low fare carrier. JetBlue could come in an lower the average fare and stimulate new demand on this route like they did at AUS.

I don't think San Antonio has as many high tech travelers as Austin, so if B6 wanted to offer another destination ex-SAT, I think IAD would be a better choice.

Referring again to that July, 2005 article you'll note it says

"What's still missing, despite years of efforts, is a nonstop flight to Washington's Reagan National or Dulles airport. Such a route would make flying easier for the high volume of travelers involved in San Antonio's federal contracting industry. And many national associations that hold conventions are in the Washington area."

A few months after that article came out, United announced that it would begin serving SAT-IAD on Oct 31, 2005. I don't know how many frequencies they currently offer nor what type of equipment they use, but the point is, UA is not a low fare carrier, while jetBlue is. If jetBlue can bring the average fare down in that market, demand will go up.

Southwest flies SAT-BWI, but BWI is it's own market, separate from Washington (DCA/IAD)

Looking at O&D statistics for SAT-WAS for Q2 2005:

In APR - JUN 2006, WAS was San Antonio's ninth most popular destination with an average of 475 daily passengers on the route. The average fare (among all carriers) was $260.03. AA was the market share leader with a 44.72% share and an average fare of $219.90. AA was the "low fare" leader on this city-pair.

I think JetBlue offering SAT - JFK service would have results similar to what they've achieved in Austin should they decide to go there and if they chose to also offer SAT-IAD, I think they could stimulate new demand in that city-pair as well.

Having said all that, here's why I think you won't be seeing jetBlue at DFW anytime soon.

There was a discussion over on the jetBlue forum at Flyertalk about jetBlue and DFW. One of the posters wrote:

"Having worked in the backoffice for AA for a few years - the DFW-LAX is one of thee most profitable routes along with DFW-JFK and JFK-LAX"

Now, while the poster said DFW-JFK was one of AA's three most profoitable routes, I think what he meant was DFW-NYC (JFK, LGA & EWR combined.)

We all saw what happened to AirTran when they offered two daily DFW-LAX roundtrips. AA lowered fares on 39 flights from DFW to all five LA-area airports and AirTran no longer offers DFW=LAX flights.

The same thing would happen to jetBlue if they offered DFW-JFK service. I think you'd see AA lower it's fares not only on DFW-JFK flights, but on DFW-LGA and DFW-EWR as well.

And if jetBlue tried DFW-LGB, AA wouldn't have to becessarily go back to LGB. They'd just lower fares from DFW to LAX, BUR, ONT and SNA.

If jetBlue wants to continue to expand to other Texas cities, SAT is a much safer bet. It's a way for jetBlue to siphon off some of AA's conecting DFW passengers originating in the spoke cities.

All this, of course is IMHO.

[Trae]

So I guess SAT will be close to Austin's number by the end of this year. I don't think JetBlue will ever be in the DFW area, unless Fort Worth builds its own airport.

[Mikey711MN]

Thanks for the post, LoneStarMike!

As for future AUS developments, keep an eye on the following:
* ExpressJet is launching an airline to operate independently from the Continental Express operation with point-to-point service primarily in the South and West. Routes that are too thin for Southwest such as, say, AUS-ABQ would be prime candidates for the smaller regional jets.
* Midwest Airlines has signed an agreement with SkyWest for them to provide Midwest Connect service on CRJs. AUS is heavily rumored to be one of the first cities to receive new service, presumably on a nonstop route to Kansas City, Midwest's "western hub".

[GoldenBoot]

Whenever VA gets off the ground; Austin, Dallas & Houston are on their proposed route system...

"Where will Virgin America fly?

Our first route is from San Francisco to New York-round trip, of course. Beyond that, we're thinking initially about cities like Seattle, Portland, Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Denver, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Dallas, Austin, Houston, New Orleans, Tampa, Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Orlando, Atlanta, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Boston. Keep coming back for updates about specific routes as we get closer to launch."


Virgin America

Let VA Fly

[Trae]

Let them fly!

[tmathis]

Originally Posted by TraeSlab713

JetBlue is really helping out AUS. How is San Antonio\'s airport doing?

I believe between 8.2 and 8.3 million.

[GoldenBoot]

Originally Posted by tmathis

I believe between 8.2 and 8.3 million.

My bet is between 7.9 and 8.15 million for San Antonio. AUS has sustained a steady 100,000-250,000 PAX lead on SAT over the past few years. And, their both growing at roughly the same rates.

[LoneStarMike]

^ I think that's a pretty good guess

SAT posts their traffic statistics here:

http://www.sanantonio.gov/aviation/statistics_2006.asp

Each month is a separate pdf file with monthly and y-t-d totals.

Through October (which is the most recent month reported) SAT had 6,594,109 passengers and traffic through October was up 7.32% over the same period in 2005.

They'd need slightly over 700,000 passengers in both November and December to hit 8 million.

Looking on the bright side, though, SAT has always surpassed Austin in the amount of international passengers it handles.

If I'm not mistaken, Aero Mexico's SAT-MEX service is daily, whereas in AUS it only operates 4 days a week. And Aero Mexico is currently Austin's only international carrier, not counting the occasional charter flight.

I believe there are other carriers offering service to Mexico from SAT besides Aero Mexico.

No matter what SAT's final passenger count for 2006 turns out to be, one things for sure. It will be a new all-time record for them.

[potts]

Yes, San Antonio does have significantly more int'l fights than AUS (This is to be expected as San Antonio is 65% hispanic as opposed to Austin's 35% hispanic population) In addition to Aeromexico's daily flights, Mexicana provides nonstop service to both Monterrey and Mecixo City. Also, Aeromexico's regional subsidiary Aerolitoral does the short hop to Monterrey as well. I read recently that SAT is trying hard to lure Air Canada with Toronto service. Given San Antonio's status as a major tourism city, I would not be surprised to see this service begin in the near future.

[LoneStarMike]

Originally Posted by Mikey711MN

As for future AUS developments, keep an eye on the following:

* Midwest Airlines has signed an agreement with SkyWest for them to provide Midwest Connect service on CRJs. AUS is heavily rumored to be one of the first cities to receive new service, presumably on a nonstop route to Kansas City, Midwest's "western hub".

I think that rumor will probably come true. Midwest has served SAT for several years now (with mainline jet service, I think) to MCI.

Here's an old press release on ABIA's website from November, 2002 that said Midwest Express (as they were formerly known) began serving Austin from Gate 25 with two daily roundtrips to Kansas City.

If I remember correctly, this was shortly after Vanguard Airlines, which also served Kansas City from Austin, filed for bankruptcy. I think the Midwest service only lasted through the Spring of 2003.

One thing that helps both AUS and SAT is that there is a good mix of air carriers and neither city is a "fortress hub" heavily dominated by one carrier. Southwest is the largest carrier at both AUS and SAT and I believe they account for about a third of the traffic at each airport.

Another thing that helps AUS and SAT is that we both have a higher percentage of low-fare carriers than at places like Memphis or Cincinnatti or Charlotte. In AUS, Southwest, Frontier, and JetBlue combined account for about 40% of all the traffic. It's probably similar in SAT which also has service from Southwest and Frontier. That helps keep airfares down in both cities which makes us popular with visitors and convention planners.

To a lesser extent, another thing that might help increase passenger counts at AUS and SAT is the fact that last fall Congress loosened the restrictions of the Wight Amendment.

For those unfamiliar with the Wright Amendment, it was a federal law passed by Congress in 1979 that limited the destinations that could be served nonstop from Dallas Love Field. Aircraft with more than 56 seats (think Southwest) could only fly from Love Field to other cities in Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Louisiana, and Arkansas.

The law also prohibited "through-ticketing" meaning that if a passenger wanted to fly from Love Field to a city outside the perimeter, they had to purchase two separate tickets -- one from Love Field to another city within the Wright perimeter and a seceond ticket from the intermediate city to their final destination outside the perimeter. The passenger was also responsible for claiming and rechecking any checked luggage at the intermediate city.

The law was enacted as a way to protect the interests of the then-new DFW Airport.

In 1997, the Shelby Amendment was passed adding Alabama, Mississippi and Kansas. In late 2005, Missouri was added.

This past fall, Congress enacted legislation that would remove the "through-ticketing" restriction, meaning that someone can now fly DAL-AUS or DAL-SAT and then onward to another city outside the perimeter (like LAX BWI, TPA or PHX) without having to purchase the trip as two separate tickets and without having to claim and recheck their luggage in the intermediate city before continuing to the final destination.

In 2014, the perimeter restrictions will be abolished entirely meaning that Southwest could offer nonstop service from Love Field to LAX or BWI, etc. Until then, the passenger still has to make a stop and/or connection in one of the other cities within the perimeter before continuing to their final destination, but it's a lot easier.

The elimination of the clause prohibiting "through-ticketing" has the potential to generate additional connecting traffic in both AUS and SAT. It won't be a huge amount of passengers in the overall scheme of things, but hey - every little bit helps.

[tennreb]

I was at AUS a few months ago, and I was highly impressed by the airport, both by it's location and its design. However, I was expecting it to be larger than it was. You could walk from end to end in a few minutes. Is there another terminal? Are they planning for additions to the terminal or another terminal in the future?

[texastarkus]

Originally Posted by tennreb

I was at AUS a few months ago, and I was highly impressed by the airport, both by it's location and its design. However, I was expecting it to be larger than it was. You could walk from end to end in a few minutes. Is there another terminal? Are they planning for additions to the terminal or another terminal in the future?

The airport is in the process of revising the master plan. Originally there was a plan to build a second terminal on the south side of taxiways Hotel and Golf - near the current maintenance ramp - but the cost has proven too much. Now they're looking at expanding on the same or slightly increased footprint.

As for new airlines, the JetExpress news release from the Houston Business Journal shows it is starting but it doesn't give any idea of the scale.

ExpressJet takes wing with regional service
Houston Business Journal - 5:20 PM CST Wednesday
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ExpressJet Holdings Inc. intends to roll out an independent regional jet service to 24 cities across the country.

Houston-based ExpressJet (NYSE: XJT), which operates regional flights for Continental Airlines Inc. (NYSE: CAL), said Wednesday that it has 44 aircraft in place to launch the small-market regional service in April in the West, Midwest and Southeast portions of the country.
ExpressJet will unveil the new route system, to include free XM Satellite radio, advanced seat assignments and snack and meal service on longer flights, on Feb. 1 when it releases its ticket pricing system.

Separately, the company said that it has gone to arbitration in a dispute with Continental over 2007 rates related to its capacity purchase agreement, expected to be resolved by the third quarter.

The company also said that its new corporate aviation division operated its initial charter flight on Dec. 31, with six aircraft dedicated to that fleet, with plans to expand to 15 aircraft.