Confederation Line (Stage 1) | In Service

[lrt's friend]

Manconi is saving face for the city to prevent another postponement. The comment about the loss of ridership is alarming. We have never been presented with that before. Earlier projections this year suggested that ridership was growing again after being pretty flat for a number of years. They figure that they can get away with 13 trains, as simple as that. Don't expect that pleasant a ride during peak hours, when at least half the passengers will be standing.

We also know that concerns with coupling and decoupling means that the 4 spare train cars is really only 2 pairs. That is probably one of the reasons why they need to keep two more out of service. Of course, there is the train reliability issue as well. How reliable are these trains? How often do they need to be taken out of service for repairs?

There are those two other trains sitting at Belfast that are not fully complete and not certified for service. When will they be able to finish them and how long will it take? Didn't they purchase them because they feared 15 trains were not enough? Another reason to assume that we are saving face when we agree to start-up with a guarantee of only 13 trains.

We have bought enough trains for current demand (hopefully), but if ridership grows significantly, as most are hoping for, how do we address this? It is becoming clear that it takes years to purchase, assemble, test and certify additional trains.

[CityTech]

Bear in mind the ridership estimate they used for calculating desired capacity was probably made in 2011 (when the contract was being tendered) and they probably assumed ridership would grow continuously from 2011 to 2018 and used a projected 2018 number rather than the 2011 number. Ridership today could easily be 10% less than that projection.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by CityTech

15 seconds is probably more than enough at all stations except for the busiest ones. At stations like Cyrville and Lees 10 seconds or less is probably enough. 15 seconds is probably a good average.

To get back up to 25 from 21, they'd have to stop for 35 seconds on average at each stop and there's no way. Even the busiest stations at rush hour won't need that long.

Some stations will have dwell times higher than 15 seconds (St-Laurent, Hurdman, uOttawa to Lyon, Bayview as long as Trillium is running) however, we could get away with less (maybe 10 seconds) for others like Cyrville, Tremblay and Lees. What's the standard in other cities?

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Manconi is saving face for the city to prevent another postponement. The comment about the loss of ridership is alarming. We have never been presented with that before. Earlier projections this year suggested that ridership was growing again after being pretty flat for a number of years. They figure that they can get away with 13 trains, as simple as that. Don't expect that pleasant a ride during peak hours, when at least half the passengers will be standing.

We also know that concerns with coupling and decoupling means that the 4 spare train cars is really only 2 pairs. That is probably one of the reasons why they need to keep two more out of service. Of course, there is the train reliability issue as well. How reliable are these trains? How often do they need to be taken out of service for repairs?

There are those two other trains sitting at Belfast that are not fully complete and not certified for service. When will they be able to finish them and how long will it take?

We have bought enough trains for current demand, but if ridership grows significantly, as most are hoping for, how do we address this? It is becoming clear that it takes years to purchase, assemble, test and certify additional trains.

We have the advantage of having multiple Stage 2 trains nearly ready for service. I think that it's relatively plausible to ramp up service to 16-18 trains within the next 6-8 months if need be. If we look at the under-built Canada Line, it was near capacity from the start. Only in 2017 did they order additional vehicles and they are expected to be delivered this Fall.

I'm more worried about up-keeping the service post-Stage 2. Hopefully, we find ourselves in a similar situation, where we start stocking up on Stage 3 trains years before the Kanata and Barrhaven extensions open.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Bear in mind the ridership estimate they used for calculating desired capacity was probably made in 2011 (when the contract was being tendered) and they probably assumed ridership would grow continuously from 2011 to 2018 and used a projected 2018 number rather than the 2011 number. Ridership today could easily be 10% less than that projection.

Sometimes you have to wonder about the experts who make these projections. Common sense after a protracted strike, a significant service cut, budgetary restrictions that prevented strategic transit improvements and slower service due to the closure of the Transitway all pointed towards flat ridership at best. I predicted a ridership decline during LRT construction and I was correct.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Some stations will have dwell times higher than 15 seconds (St-Laurent, Hurdman, uOttawa to Lyon, Bayview as long as Trillium is running) however, we could get away with less (maybe 10 seconds) for others like Cyrville, Tremblay and Lees. What's the standard in other cities?



We have the advantage of having multiple Stage 2 trains nearly ready for service. I think that it's relatively plausible to ramp up service to 16-18 trains within the next 6-8 months if need be. If we look at the under-built Canada Line, it was near capacity from the start. Only in 2017 did they order additional vehicles and they are expected to be delivered this Fall.

I'm more worried about up-keeping the service post-Stage 2. Hopefully, we find ourselves in a similar situation, where we start stocking up on Stage 3 trains years before the Kanata and Barrhaven extensions open.

With everybody so focused on Phase 1 opening, what is the real state of train car assembly? We know that 2 trains were purchased ahead of the main Stage 2 order and those are the trains that are sitting at Belfast, not fully finished. But has any progress been made on Stage 2 train assembly? We know that train assembly will eventually move out of Ottawa and only part of the Stage 2 order will be assembled here.

[lrt's friend]

Question: Will Bayview station have down escalators? This is important for when the airport connection is completed. Riders with luggage should not have to wait for elevators.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Sometimes you have to wonder about the experts who make these projections. Common sense after a protracted strike, a significant service cut, budgetary restrictions that prevented strategic transit improvements and slower service due to the closure of the Transitway all pointed towards flat ridership at best. I predicted a ridership decline during LRT construction and I was correct.

Growth projections are not an exact science. When making projections for future capacity requirements, it is better to over estimate ridership than under estimate it.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Growth projections are not an exact science. When making projections for future capacity requirements, it is better to over estimate ridership than under estimate it.

Agreed

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

With everybody so focused on Phase 1 opening, what is the real state of train car assembly? We know that 2 trains were purchased ahead of the main Stage 2 order and those are the trains that are sitting at Belfast, not fully finished. But has any progress been made on Stage 2 train assembly? We know that train assembly will eventually moved out of Ottawa and only part of the Stage 2 order will be assembled here.

Hybrid247 and Corvulpes have addressed this partially. Both have worked on the project and have proved to be reliable sources (they posted about the 13 trains before the official announcement Friday).

And an unofficial update on a few Stage 2 trains from PHrenetic.

Originally Posted by PHrenetic

Good Day.

Yep, by what I saw of the 4 LRVs (two double trains) 1135-1138 of the advance build of Stage 2 vehicles in early July (they were at the rear / back of the storage barns just sitting there), and the photos of them more recently, they are still unfinished and need about 2 more months of work, and then 2 + months of testing and certification before we see them.
Absolutely the focus was on completing the Stage 1 contract vehicles. So, February at the earliest, IMO.

My 2 cents.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Question: Will Bayview station have down escalators? This is important for when the airport connection is completed. Riders with luggage should not have to wait for elevators.

Anywhere we have single escalators, such as Bayview, they will only be up escalators. The only two stations with double (I assume one up and one down, maybe 2 up during the AM) are Rideau, because of its depth, and Parliament, where there is only one set of doubles based on pictures posted in the past (assuming Heritage Place, after going down the stairs on the corner of Queen and O'Connor and turning the 180 corner at the Winners level, but not 100% sure).

To make the parallel with the Canada Line once more, they also opted for single escalators at the time as part of value-engineering efforts and experienced congestion issues at the stations early on. I'm expecting the same in Ottawa at many of our busiest stations. In addition, they also made the decision to only build one entrance per station. Luckily, Ottawa didn't go that far. Vancouver is currently adding escalators to the three downtown stations (Yaletown-Roundhouse is complete, working on City Centre, Waterfront is next in line). Translink has since changed their policy so that any new transit line is built with double escalators from the get-go (and likely a minimum of two entrances).

One problem in Ottawa though, is that we don't seem to have left enough space for additional escalators OR elevators anywhere in Parliament or Lyon (or Rideau for that matter, but I'm confident we have sufficient vertical circulation in that station). Vancouver did. If we have severe bottlenecks, we will need to build additional station entrances.

The stations I foresee such issues are Tunney's and Blair (only until Stage 2 is complete), Bayview (post-Stage 2 South), Parliament and Lyon (entrances to concourse only, concourse to platform seems adequate), uOttawa and maybe Hurdman.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Manconi is saving face for the city to prevent another postponement. The comment about the loss of ridership is alarming. We have never been presented with that before. Earlier projections this year suggested that ridership was growing again after being pretty flat for a number of years.

Originally Posted by CityTech

Bear in mind the ridership estimate they used for calculating desired capacity was probably made in 2011 (when the contract was being tendered) and they probably assumed ridership would grow continuously from 2011 to 2018 and used a projected 2018 number rather than the 2011 number. Ridership today could easily be 10% less than that projection.

As recently as Spring, Manconi was saying 15 trains. It's pretty clear this whole business of "a drop in ridership" is BS. Show me a rail transit system that doesn't gain ridership in the months after launch. Especially when fed by a feeder bus network.

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

They figure that they can get away with 13 trains, as simple as that. Don't expect that pleasant a ride during peak hours, when at least half the passengers will be standing.

Exactly. I think what they are banking on here is that they can get to 15 trains before the completion of transition on October 6th.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by CityTech

15 seconds is probably more than enough at all stations except for the busiest ones. At stations like Cyrville and Lees 10 seconds or less is probably enough. 15 seconds is probably a good average.

To get back up to 25 from 21, they'd have to stop for 35 seconds on average at each stop and there's no way. Even the busiest stations at rush hour won't need that long.

If I understand correctly, some stations will have all doors open. And some will have doors open on demand (by pushing the button). If that's the case, 10s is probably too short anywhere.

Keep in mind that stops have to account for the slowest user. Imagine some senior citizen rolling up in a wheel chair, pushing the door open button, rolling on and then the doors close. 15s is probably the minimum. 20s is probably more likely.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Question: Will Bayview station have down escalators? This is important for when the airport connection is completed. Riders with luggage should not have to wait for elevators.

You don't want riders with luggage on escalators. They crowd out and obstruct other users and occassionally get their luggage bits caught and damage the escalators. Far better to either provide an adjacent conveyor for luggage or build a moving walkway/slope. Otherwise compel them to use the elevator.

[Horus]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

They figure that they can get away with 13 trains, as simple as that. Don't expect that pleasant a ride during peak hours, when at least half the passengers will be standing.

Given that seating capacity is less than 50% of the total vehicle passenger capacity, it should be expected that half the passengers would be standing anyway.

Were you expecting peak hour trains to operating at under 50% capacity?

Standing on a train is also significantly easier than trying to stand on a bus.

[ortelius]

Chianello would have stepped out and later reported:
“Train leaves passengers behind. Hair burning like the Amazon”
Residents are furious, with a local Hintonburg resident saying “the train left us so fast, it literally left my hair on fire. In fact, it is still burning, just like the Amazon”. Is RTG delivering to taxpayers?

Follow up by Jon Willing later on the day
Manconi has this to say about a CBC report from earlier today: “if the customer disembarks from the train, he is no longer on the train, he is on the platform. The trains can’t physically pull passengers from the platform into the train. Boston’s system can’t do it; New York’s system can’t do it. Also, there were no residents on the trains that day. Even if there were, our trains are safe and our stations have the highest sprinkler density per capita in North America”.

Originally Posted by roger1818

It makes total sense that they wouldn't open the doors. If they had, I am sure one (or more) of the journalists would have stepped out to take a look around, delaying the ride for everyone.

As for the 15 seconds, that isn't as long as they will stop at most if not all of the stations, so we can probably add a few minutes to the travel time, so we are likely back to the 25 minutes scheduled.

Regarding the 2 do-over days in the 12 day test, I suspect that it was part of the contract and that detail had never been released to the public.

I am more concerned about the 13 trains though. Why are they only providing 13 trains? What will it take to get the 15 (or 17 for growth) trains? All of that is as clear as mud.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

If I understand correctly, some stations will have all doors open. And some will have doors open on demand (by pushing the button). If that's the case, 10s is probably too short anywhere.

Keep in mind that stops have to account for the slowest user. Imagine some senior citizen rolling up in a wheel chair, pushing the door open button, rolling on and then the doors close. 15s is probably the minimum. 20s is probably more likely.

Stops in Toronto and Montreal are typically 10s or less.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Stops in Toronto and Montreal are typically 10s or less.

Those are subways and AFAIK, all doors open at all stations automatically. At outdoor stations, you don't want all doors opening automatically, especially in winter. Calgary and Edmonton might be better examples as they are cities with winters and have outdoor stations.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You don't want riders with luggage on escalators. They crowd out and obstruct other users and occassionally get their luggage bits caught and damage the escalators. Far better to either provide an adjacent conveyor for luggage or build a moving walkway/slope. Otherwise compel them to use the elevator.

All I can say is that the city's plans are not effective for an airport transfer. Much too cumbersome especially if the elevators are ultra-slow, which is what I am expecting. I presume there will only be one elevator at Bayview. I can see people trying to take their luggage down the stairs. Incidentally, I have used escalators many times with luggage. For example at Central Station in Montreal.

[CityTech]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

All I can say is that the city's plans are not effective for an airport transfer. Much too cumbersome especially if the elevators are ultra-slow, which is what I am expecting. I presume there will only be one elevator at Bayview.

There's 2 for each platform. All elevators are doubled up for redundancy to ensure all stations remain accessible when elevators are being serviced.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by CityTech

There's 2 for each platform. All elevators are doubled up for redundancy to ensure all stations remain accessible when elevators are being serviced.

Yup, this was discussed a while back starting at post number #7290.