Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[L'homard]

He might just sit as an Independent and, when push comes to shove, he could "reluctantly" support whatever reforms are proposed in the end, because the Tories will surely make some compromises in their plans, even if only token ones.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by L'homard

MLA Robert Gauvin, PC, is likely to resign tomorrow morning. So I'm told.

Originally Posted by L'homard

He might just sit as an Independent and, when push comes to shove, he could "reluctantly" support whatever reforms are proposed in the end, because the Tories will surely make some compromises in their plans, even if only token ones.

It's official and he is sitting as an independent.

Robert Gauvin has resigned as deputy premier in the Progressive Conservative government and will sit as an independent MLA.

Gauvin made the announcement in Shippagan this morning.

He said he was quitting over recently announced health reforms, including the nighttime closure of six hospital emergency rooms. One of them is in the Enfant-Jésus Hospital in nearby Caraquet, where Gauvin was born.

"This reform is an attack on rural New Brunswick," he said, describing calls he received from people in other affected communities, including Sackville and Sussex.

[Taeolas]

It's all over Facebook, but Higgs has read the chickenbones and decided to cancel the healthcare reform until they can do some community consultations.

Personally I suspect he was realizing he's about to lose confidence in the legislature and he's trying to save his government. We'll find out if that's enough soon I guess.

[Bishop2047]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...uvin-1.5466877

Looks like we will have an election.... Sigh.

If someone is already saying they will down the budget (despite it not even being presented yet) we will be casting our ballets sooner rather than later.

This was a poorly executed plan but the idea was not governments, it was the health region's. Perhaps a slower roll out would have garnered less hate and created less division but we will never know. See you at the polls.

[JHikka]

Disappointing to see a government have to pay the price, and then backtrack, for doing something that's ultimately necessary and instructed to them by experts in the field. Eventually there'll come a time where the rural areas don't have so much clout.

[Taeolas]

It's not a sure thing yet but it is certainly looking more and more probable that we'll go to the polls.

As is we need 24 against the budget to fail it. Liberals and Greens have 23 (if the speaker steps down or if there is a tie) and Gauvin as an independent would be the 24th.

But it's a very tight confidence motion. Higgs might have enough wiggle room to court a vote from the Greens or even the Liberals to let the budget pass.

Ultimately it will depend on how the winds are blowing. Higgs is in major damage control right now, which will make it harder to garner even token support. If he can throw in a few candies to the budget to get some extra support and/or he can get public opinion back on his side, he might hold on for now.

As for the health care reform; he says he wants to do more talks and studies in March/April, which will mean a report in the summer and implementation in the fall most likely. Putting the same plan back up would be suicide; but if he does want to downgrade ER services, he better make sure he's on top of the story and saying how those services will be handled elsewhere, or you can be sure Vickers will have the No-Confidence motion back on the table just as fast.

[Marty_Mcfly]

^ Meet you all at the polls

[drewber]

Guaranteed election. The liberals will vote along party lines and the greens and independent will vote against it too. Hell the people's alliance may even vote it down to help with the upcoming election results. Guessing an election the end of April first week of May. Minority governments allow for compromise but don't last long sadly

[McKay]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Liberals and Greens have 23 (if the speaker steps down or if there is a tie) and Gauvin as an independent would be the 24th.

In the event of a tie the Speaker would, by convention, vote to maintain confidence in the government, so would vote to pass the budget.

[drewber]

Originally Posted by McKay

In the event of a tie the Speaker would, by convention, vote to maintain confidence in the government, so would vote to pass the budget.

But the speaker already said he would step down in order to pass a vote of non-confidence so its a non-issue.

[Taeolas]

Well, looks like it will be an interesting week in NB Politics.

Coon is signalling he might support the budget in light of COVID-19.

I can understand the reasoning for not toppling the government right now, but it will probably make for some interesting optics. What will be especially telling is if Higgs does hold on, is how he handles when COVID does finally show up here. You can be sure the opposition will be hammering him about the healthcare reform he backed off of even if Emergency Room coverage likely wouldn't have changed how COVID hits us one way or another.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Narrative Research Atlantic Canada Quarterlies - Provincial Politics Polling

Nova Scotia (+/- since last polling in November)

LIB: 43% (+1)
PC: 27% (+1)
NDP: 21% (0)
GRN: 10% (+1)


New Brunswick (+/- since last polling in November)

PC: 39% (+2)
LIB: 28% (-3)
GRN: 20% (-1)
NDP: 8% (+1)
PA: 4% (+1)


Newfoundland & Labrador (+/- since last polling in November)

LIB: 37% (-5)
PC: 35% (+2)
NDP: 26% (+2)
GRN: 2% (+2)


PEI (+/- since last polling in November)

PC: 45% (+7)
GRN: 28% (-1)
LIB: 21% (-5)
NDP: 6% (0)

[Marty_Mcfly]

Plotted poll-by-poll results for NL based on strength of win (2019 Federal Election)






Detailed district breakdowns, community maps, etc. start from this post:
https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...24#post8896224

[MonctonRad]

Well, this is good news.....

DBRS Ltd., has confirmed New Brunswick's issuer rating and long-term debt rating at A (high) and its short-term debt rating at R-1 (middle).

"This reflects New Brunswick's progress in recent years to restore fiscal balance and reduce debt, leaving the province in a much better position entering the pandemic," the credit rating agency said in a news release.

New Brunswick's 2020 budget was passed on March 13. Since then, DBRS has said the province's fiscal and economic outlook have deteriorated markedly, though the full extent of the deterioration is still uncertain.

"While considerable downside risk remains, New Brunswick's economy is expected to be less affected than Canada as a whole, reflective of a greater reliance on the public sector, and at the time of writing, the coronavirus pandemic appears to have been less severe in New Brunswick relative to other provinces."

[theshark]

Yes, lower debt means better credit rate, means lower interest rates, means millions less in interest to pay, means millions more to keep the wheel turning!

That is really good news

[Taeolas]

Well, there goes all the goodwill Higgs built up during the pandemic.

A General Election will be on September 14th.

This is a horribly bad idea IMO. Things were going fine, and the opposition was working with him. But apparently that wasn't enough.

I guess this will be interesting to say the least.

[MonctonRad]

I'm not a big fan of calling an election at this point in time either. This could come back to bite Higgs. He's riding high in the polls right now, but that could change in an instant, especially if a second wave hits at the same time as election day.

[Dengler Avenue]

I was shocked to learn the news too.

[gehrhardt]

Higgs is doing well in the polls at the moment. The Conservatives approached the other parties with a plan to stay in power either for the remainder of their term, or until the pandemic is under control. The Liberals said no.

It looks like they think they can get a majority and won't need the support of the other parties.

Whether or not this works is still up in the air.

[NB_ExistsToo]

Originally Posted by gehrhardt

Higgs is doing well in the polls at the moment. The Conservatives approached the other parties with a plan to stay in power either for the remainder of their term, or until the pandemic is under control. The Liberals said no.

It looks like they think they can get a majority and won't need the support of the other parties.

Whether or not this works is still up in the air.

I'm under the impression he's "riding high in the polls" too, but I heard on the radio this morning how they mentioned there's been no polling the last few months because of Covid. So it's all speculation he's doing well?

Also, there's the thought he could be doing well because more people approve of the cooperation between all the parties during the pandemic, rather than just specifically Higgs and the cons.

I was happy with the way things were, not happy with Higgs claiming he had no other choice, but I do like things about him. I'll have to wait and see over the next month to see how I'll vote