Manitoba Provincial Election | 2016

[BigG]

Here's how every election should be, especially this year's:

https://youtu.be/NKpn_rg2bdw?list=PL...PSJAzEDN&t=328

From last night's Jimmy Fallon Show.

[Chrisforpm]

Anyone care to make a prediction now that we're near the end of the campaign? Just a pure guess based on the polls - PC 42, NDP 14, GRN 1, LIB 0. Bokhari loses in Fort Rouge and Gerarrd narrowly loses in River Heights.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Chrisforpm

Anyone care to make a prediction now that we're near the end of the campaign? Just a pure guess based on the polls - PC 42, NDP 14, GRN 1, LIB 0. Bokhari loses in Fort Rouge and Gerarrd narrowly loses in River Heights.

I think we're pretty well on the same page although I don't think the Greens will win a seat. Lib shutout seems realistic given that the leader's atrocious performance has decimated their appeal as a legitimate alternative for government to the PCs, taking down Gerrard in the process.

I'd say PC 42, NDP 15. That's based on looking at a results map from 2011... I predict that nearly every swing seat will go to the PCs this time around.

[Riverman]

PCs take every seat except Elmwood and St. Johns. Greens take Wolseley.

You heard it here first!

[Tacheguy]

Originally Posted by Riverman

PCs take every seat except Elmwood and St. Johns. Greens take Wolseley.

You heard it here first!

I don't know if the PCs take St Boniface. They are running an interesting candidate though.

[Chrisforpm]

Originally Posted by Riverman

PCs take every seat except Elmwood and St. Johns. Greens take Wolseley.

You heard it here first!

I'm actually interested to see what happens to the NDP vote. If you look at the past two elections, NDP backed candidates got pummelled (Judy took 24% in the mayoral election and last year's federal election they took just under 14% province wide). I would argue that a lot of people took their frustrations out on the NDP at both levels. Now it's the source of the problem, the provincial NDP's turn.

If they come up with around 25% of the vote and the Liberals have a bad night, we might see history made. The last time any provincial party has won over 50% of the vote was back in the 1915 election. If that happens, you might see a landslide.

[biguc]

Originally Posted by Riverman

PCs take every seat except Elmwood and St. Johns. Greens take Wolseley.

You heard it here first!

I wish. I'd love to see real progressive politics prevail in Wolsely and finally break the NDP's grip on that neighborhood. But Wolselyites know which side of their bread is buttered and love the NDP because it pays them.

[hexrae]

You think the PCs take Minto? Swan has been incumbent for quite some time now. I ask selfishly because it is my riding.

Historically at the Federal level, the riding (albeit larger) has been NDP with Martin and now Liberal with Ouellette.

Meanwhile in the Civic election it's been Smith for so long, then recently changed with Gilroy getting in.

I suppose the constant is a long serving politician getting ousted in the most recent election, but I wonder if Squance (PC) or Balaktsis (Lib) has what it takes to get elected (Who knows, maybe Woodstock can shock the province ). Swan taking part of the cabinet resignation issue clouds the situation too.

I'm definitely looking forward to the election coverage come Tuesday.

[StNorberter]

I'm interested to see what Selinger's response will be on Tues. evening.

Will he step down in his concession speech? Will it matter if he wins his seat?

My guess is that if he wins his seat, his ego won't let him step down as part leader.

If he doesn't win his seat, he'll get pushed out as they'll need a legislative leader anyway.

[bomberjet]

Selinger will win his seat again. Many in St. B don't know who the PC candidate is, even though he's been around for a while.

[cheswick]

I could see the liberals retain River Heights or possibly take Burrows. Lamoureux's father was a popular MLA and won Inkster as an independent one election.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by StNorberter

I'm interested to see what Selinger's response will be on Tues. evening.

Will he step down in his concession speech? Will it matter if he wins his seat?

My guess is that if he wins his seat, his ego won't let him step down as part leader.

If he doesn't win his seat, he'll get pushed out as they'll need a legislative leader anyway.

It would be downright absurd if Selinger attempted to stay on after what will certainly be a crushing electoral defeat. If he tried to do that, I'd expect that even the few friends he has left in the NDP caucus would turn on him.

[Cyro]

Originally Posted by esquire

It would be downright absurd if Selinger attempted to stay on after what will certainly be a crushing electoral defeat. If he tried to do that, I'd expect that even the few friends he has left in the NDP caucus would turn on him.

Do you know, or anyone else, if he has a nice little place tucked away in Machu Picchu for just this day ?

I here it's beautiful there, never been my self..great place to stash a few $$

[Chrisforpm]

Originally Posted by esquire

It would be downright absurd if Selinger attempted to stay on after what will certainly be a crushing electoral defeat. If he tried to do that, I'd expect that even the few friends he has left in the NDP caucus would turn on him.

I see him resigning as leader but remaining the MLA for St. Boniface (assuming he wins his seat, which is likely), for a year or two. Jim Prentice was highly critisized in Alberta last year when he resigned the seat he had just won in the election. I can't see Selinger damaging his own brand anymore than he already has.

To think he could stay on as leader would be foolish. Tom Mulcair lost badly last fall and stayed on. The membership didn't give him the option of staying or going, they showed him the door a few weekends ago. Better for Selinger to allow someone new to lead the opposition until a permanent leader is elected.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Chrisforpm

I see him resigning as leader but remaining the MLA for St. Boniface (assuming he wins his seat, which is likely), for a year or two. Jim Prentice was highly critisized in Alberta last year when he resigned the seat he had just won in the election. I can't see Selinger damaging his own brand anymore than he already has.

To think he could stay on as leader would be foolish. Tom Mulcair lost badly last fall and stayed on. The membership didn't give him the option of staying or going, they showed him the door a few weekends ago. Better for Selinger to allow someone new to lead the opposition until a permanent leader is elected.

Selinger could stay on as MLA but he would get ousted as leader by his party at the first possible opportunity if he didn't make his resignation clear on election night.

As for the Liberal party, I'm assuming Rana will resign too after her dreadful performance, unless she manages to pull an upset and win her seat. The pundits seem to like Cindy Lamoureux's chances in Burrows, and I can tell you from driving around that constituency she is killing it in the sign war. She obviously benefits from being coached by an absolute master of retail politics (her dad, MP Kevin), and she'd be hands down the likeliest next leader of the Liberal party if she wins her seat.

[Chrisforpm]

Originally Posted by esquire

Selinger could stay on as MLA but he would get ousted as leader by his party at the first possible opportunity if he didn't make his resignation clear on election night.

As for the Liberal party, I'm assuming Rana will resign too after her dreadful performance, unless she manages to pull an upset and win her seat. The pundits seem to like Cindy Lamoureux's chances in Burrows, and I can tell you from driving around that constituency she is killing it in the sign war. She obviously benefits from being coached by an absolute master of retail politics (her dad, MP Kevin), and she'd be hands down the likeliest next leader of the Liberal party if she wins her seat.

I thought that about Rana as well. She will have no choice to resign (I see Audrey Gordon winning Ft Rouge with Rana coming in third).

This was the Liberals chance to match or beat Sharon Carstairs performance of 20 seats in 1988. All of the conditions were there to possibly even win government. She blew it big time by not being ready, despite having 3 years to get things in order. If the Liberals have a shot at keeping a seat, it is definitely Cindy Lamoureux in Burrows. She not only has the name recognition, she has an organization on the ground (from her father) which is key to getting out the vote. This will be a race to watch.

Other than that, I see Gerarrd going down to defeat - a swath of liberals will switch to PC in River Heights, enough to unseat him.

[YWG-RO]

My revised tally:

PC 38
NDP 18
Lib 1

Cheers

[drew]

Originally Posted by biguc

I wish. I'd love to see real progressive politics prevail in Wolsely and finally break the NDP's grip on that neighborhood. But Wolselyites know which side of their bread is buttered and love the NDP because it pays them.

Not sure what that means.

If people in wolseley really knew which side their bread was buttered they certainly shouldn't vote in the ndp and sit helplessly on the sidelines for 5 years.

I hope altemyer is kicked to the curb. We need some new political blood around here.

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by Riverman

PCs take every seat except Elmwood and St. Johns. Greens take Wolseley.

You heard it here first!

The wife, the kid and and angry old Skylar hope our con votes make a difference. Maloway has to be one of the most self serving politicians in Manitoba history.

Would also love to see the Greens take Wolseley!

[Chrisforpm]

So the final two polls came out tonight.

Insightrix
PC 49
NDP 22
LIB 19
GRN 9

Insights West
PC 53
NDP 28
LIB 10
GRN 7

Expect a shift of epic proportions tomorrow. With our first past the post system and the PC's at, near or above 50% we should see something similar to what happened in SK. A lopsided win for the govt (in this case PC) and a small and ineffective opposition.