Manitoba Provincial Election | 2016

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by Chrisforpm

I think the bigger struggle for the NDP in the interim is to get their fundraising machine in order. The loss of the voter subsidy is going to hit them hard, as they have relied on it heavily (the PC's don't take it). So next election, even though it's 4 years away is going to be tough for the NDP. Depending on how well or not Pallister does, we could see the NDP win back a handful of traditional ridings or witness what happened in Saskatchewan and see them lose further seats.

Depends how mad the unions get at Pallister.

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by Andy6

Maybe. I tend to think that the Interlakes and Dauphins of this world might be gone forever, just like the party now barely registers in its former stronghold of Lac du Bonnet. The old Slavic/Icelander/Francophone rural base that the NDP used to draw from seems to have realigned with the rest of rural Manitoba.

The NDP only registers where people are dependent on govt., look at the electoral map after the last election with the lone rural Liberal seat being the exception.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by Andy6

Maybe. I tend to think that the Interlakes and Dauphins of this world might be gone forever, just like the party now barely registers in its former stronghold of Lac du Bonnet. The old Slavic/Icelander/Francophone rural base that the NDP used to draw from seems to have realigned with the rest of rural Manitoba.

The same thing has happened here in Saskatchewan. Areas like Yorkton used to be pretty strong NDP but now they are toast there.

I think that when all those 1/4 section or 1/2 section farmers sold out and moved to town or to the city, they lost the people who would vote NDP. The larger farmers who bought out the small guys are not big fans of the way the NDP (in its rhetoric at least) looks down its nose at corporations or big business (the dreaded Corporate Farm is 99% family operations that became corporations due to taxation and succession planning reasons not because they are run by some nefarious off-shore entity mining the land and using cheap labour). Then there are the people who live in the small towns and cities in rural SK or MB. They are the most part business owners or non-union labourers for construction, electrical, plumbing entities in the town. And once again the NDP rhetoric does not seem to be very compatible to these people's values.

So far be it from me to give advice to the NDP on how it can regain relevance in areas outside of the downtown core of Winnipeg, Regina and Saskatoon, but here it is:
Tone down the bloody anti-business, anti-GMO, anti conventional farming aspect of your message. Yes you can still critique them, but don't make blanket statements that they are the devil and should be fought tooth and nail. As soon as a NDP rep gets on a stage at foaming at the mouth anti Monsanto rally, the majority of the rural prairie people just tune them out.
Yes farmers and ranchers have issues with Monsanto, they can be a bully at times. But they also have issues with the CPR/CNR, RBC/BMO/TD Bank, Viterra/ADM/Cargill and Dow/Pfiezer. But they also know that these companies are essential to their continues success.

So NDP instead of saying - "Corporate Farms are destroying wetlands due to their mining of the land for offshore profits!":
Maybe say "Downstream flooding in urban areas due to the lack of water holdback is putting a strain on the financial health of the province. How can we work with landowners to retain wetlands to mitigate the annual cost of flooding clean-up" (I'm actually hoping the Palliser government is considering this)
You are still getting your point across, but the message isn't poisoned with an anti-farmer rhetoric.

The Conservatives in Manitoba and especially the Sask Party in SK have made their respective rural areas their fortresses. And they have made significant inroads into the Suburbs and are starting to nip at the urban core. The NDP have to adjust their message to reach out to these outlaying areas or they will be on the outside looking in for quite awhile.

This all my humble opinion of course!

[Urban recluse]

Originally Posted by rrskylar

The NDP only registers where people are dependent on govt., look at the electoral map after the last election with the lone rural Liberal seat being the exception.

Unions in today's society protect ineptitude and laziness. 100 years ago, they were instrumental in fairness and rights. They are obsolete today, and enable ineffective people from being let go easier.

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by Urban recluse

Unions in today's society protect ineptitude and laziness. 100 years ago, they were instrumental in fairness and rights. They are obsolete today, and enable ineffective people from being let go easier.

Like that Pallister has already said they will amend the laws on voting for unions, back to a secret ballot like it should be!

[Tacheguy]

Originally Posted by Urban recluse

Unions in today's society protect ineptitude and laziness. 100 years ago, they were instrumental in fairness and rights. They are obsolete today, and enable ineffective people from being let go easier.

Except in Germany?

[Urban recluse]

Isn't it relative to the higher costs of doing business there?

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Urban recluse

Unions in today's society protect ineptitude and laziness. 100 years ago, they were instrumental in fairness and rights. They are obsolete today, and enable ineffective people from being let go easier.

That is as simplistic as saying that corporations do nothing but enable greed and avarice. Why shouldn't employees have the right to work together to protect their interests?

The fairness and rights that employees enjoy today exist largely because of what unions were able to accomplish.

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by esquire

That is as simplistic as saying that corporations do nothing but enable greed and avarice. Why shouldn't employees have the right to work together to protect their interests?

The fairness and rights that employees enjoy today exist largely because of what unions were able to accomplish.

I think Urban acknowledged that unions had their day, but now they are a useless appendage past their best before date!

The union movement today is a bloated bureaucracy that only servers itself off the back of workers forced to pay exorbitant union dues with next to nothing in return!

[Urban recluse]

Agreed, RR. If they are to exist, they need to be reformed.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by rrskylar

I think Urban acknowledged that unions had their day, but now they are a useless appendage past their best before date!

This is like saying we don't need firefighters because people don't really lose their lives in big fires that often anymore.

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by esquire

This is a bit like saying we don't need firefighters because people don't really lose their lives in big fires that often anymore.

Glad you mention firefighters;

We don't need the number of firefighters we currently sustain, you can thank unions for that, one of the ideas (plans hatched) unions pushed to justify their firefighter numbers was for firefighters to attend to medical distress calls, a firefighter and fire truck show up at a call and luckily one the firefighters might be properly trained as a paramedic while four other firefighters stand around and watch. If it is a serious medical emergency an ambulance and real paramedics are called!

We need more trained paramedics and appropriate response vehicle not a fire truck and five firefighters to attend to a seniors fall, but then again it protects a redundant number of firefighters in the guise of public safety.

[esquire]

^ I'm not going to argue with you that the city has gone too far to appease UFFW, but one bad deal due to political cowardice doesn't mean the entire concept of collective bargaining is flawed.

[Chrisforpm]

Originally Posted by Ando

Chris ... let me guess ... you're running for PM of the Conservative Party?

No, no I spend too much time outside of Canada to ever get elected hahaha.

[cllew]

Originally Posted by Chrisforpm

No, no I spend too much time outside of Canada to ever get elected hahaha.

If it is a property in Costa Rica, it apparently won't hurt your chances.

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN

The same thing has happened here in Saskatchewan. Areas like Yorkton used to be pretty strong NDP but now they are toast there.

I think that when all those 1/4 section or 1/2 section farmers sold out and moved to town or to the city, they lost the people who would vote NDP.

You'd think that, although the rural heartland of southern Manitoba was as hostile to the NDP in the 70s as it is today. It was in some of the more marginal farming areas in the Parklands and across through the Interlake and into the southeast of the province that they did better. In fact, they've never once won a seat other than the Brandon seats west of the Red River and south of Riding Mountain. But that was likely an extension of the differing ethnic composition of those areas. It was similar in the city - in my middle class neighbourhood in St. Vital, most of the NDP voters were either hard-nosed old union guys from England or Ukrainian-Canadians. Among almost everyone else the PC vote seemed to be nearly unanimous.

[Chrisforpm]

Originally Posted by Andy6

You'd think that, although the rural heartland of southern Manitoba was as hostile to the NDP in the 70s as it is today. It was in some of the more marginal farming areas in the Parklands and across through the Interlake and into the southeast of the province that they did better. In fact, they've never once won a seat other than the Brandon seats west of the Red River and south of Riding Mountain. But that was likely an extension of the differing ethnic composition of those areas. It was similar in the city - in my middle class neighbourhood in St. Vital, most of the NDP voters were either hard-nosed old union guys from England or Ukrainian-Canadians. Among almost everyone else the PC vote seemed to be nearly unanimous.

It's interesting to see the change in demographic from the old centre-left voters in many parts of the city and province to the new generation that are more inclined to vote centre or centre right. Never in my life did I think a riding like transcona would go PC. Even at the federal level when elmwood transcona went conservative. I think a lot of young people are getting away from the union/govt should do everything for you mentality to I want to pay less tax. It'll be interesting to see in Manitoba the next election and if the PC's can hang on to those ridings that switched and make headways into say The Maples where they narrowly lost. I think the NDP will have a lot of problems attracting centrist voters. Especially since the Gary Doer's of the world are no longer part of the party.

If they pick from the current pool of MLA's to lead the party, the party shifts left. That will alienate a lot of suburban voters who supported the NDP in the past. I except the NDP to be in the political wilderness for awhile, unless they can select a leader that appeals to the new middle class.

We definitely just had a realigning election that might foreshadow the political future of this province for years to come.

[Tacheguy]

Originally Posted by rrskylar

The NDP only registers where people are dependent on govt., look at the electoral map after the last election with the lone rural Liberal seat being the exception.

Who isn't dependent on government?

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by Tacheguy

Who isn't dependent on government?

I would guess anyone living in Canada from 1867-to around 1968, that's about when the welfare state in Canada began!

[VANRIDERFAN]

Originally Posted by Andy6

You'd think that, although the rural heartland of southern Manitoba was as hostile to the NDP in the 70s as it is today. It was in some of the more marginal farming areas in the Parklands and across through the Interlake and into the southeast of the province that they did better. In fact, they've never once won a seat other than the Brandon seats west of the Red River and south of Riding Mountain. But that was likely an extension of the differing ethnic composition of those areas. It was similar in the city - in my middle class neighbourhood in St. Vital, most of the NDP voters were either hard-nosed old union guys from England or Ukrainian-Canadians. Among almost everyone else the PC vote seemed to be nearly unanimous.

I r to agree on that. I'm from south of Brandon and the NDP get no traction at all in that region.
You are also right that if Palliser doesn't turn into a Filmon (whom I liked BTW) or a Harper to the centre type voter and the NDP turn even farther left, then the Dippers will be on the opposition benches for a while.