What is it like to come home to Canada?

[giallo]

Originally Posted by niwell

I have a friend living in Bali for what was intended as a year. It's been going on 7 now, including COVID times when he decided to stay (not a great time there!). He mentioned the influx of expats post-COVID and as a result moved to a smaller village where things are much cheaper than increasingly obnoxious tourist spots. He's a freelance photographer/videographer and manages to live a decent lifestyle on that. Problem is he's pretty much priced out of coming home unless his recent film gets the funding he expected (his previous documentary received a ton of funding but that tap is drying up globally) - it's too expensive otherwise.

That's always a concern. Living in a place like Bali can offer you a great QOL, but you're not making close to what you would be back home, so any money you save won't really help you if you're planning to move back at some point.

I've met a number of older people over the years that are essentially "trapped" in countries like Thailand, Philippines, and Indonesia. They don't seem to mind, but it's all but impossible for them to move back to the US or Canada, even if they wanted to.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lio45

My point wasn't that they would invade us without our government's approval, my point was that there's a huge reservoir of Fresh New Suckers out there AND that climate change will make it even greater.

In other words, the Ponzi Scheme of Great Landed Gentry Enrichment might be less sustainable if it weren't for the lucky fact that climate change will increase migration pressure in a lot of the world.

Sure. But ultimately the choice to take in more is ours. It's not the same pressure the US or Europe might face. Done right, this is an opportunity to get higher quality migrants. Especially in a world where population growth is starting to reverse.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Migration pressure isn't a real threat for Canada. We've got large oceans keeping us away from most of them. We may actually be able to be pickier with immigrants if the US is suffering more natural disasters.

Too bad Thunder Bay (or Winnipeg) doesn't market itself like Duluth, Minnesota since they were named a top city in America where they will have "more manageable climate impacts".
Lake Superior is a beautiful area.
Although Duluth is more attractive than Thunder Bay from a city perspective from what I've seen
Duluth built up a legacy from a century ago when it was one of the largest ports in North America shipping grain, iron ore, other commodities across the Great Lakes and beyond.

The panel that CNBC interviewed identified these American cities as "climate havens", with one also citing Orlando lol (guess Florida needs one major city remaining above water?)


Lio, go bullish on a Buffalo-Rochester portfolio. Stick to the city propers, the suburbs hose ya in property taxes

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[rousseau]

This is the kind of SSP thread that keeps drawing me back. It's got the comedy...

Originally Posted by Drybrain

Tristin Hopper especially is a right-wing contrarian propagandist disguised as a reporter.

...and things that hit closer to home.

Originally Posted by giallo

That's always a concern. Living in a place like Bali can offer you a great QOL, but you're not making close to what you would be back home, so any money you save won't really help you if you're planning to move back at some point.

I've met a number of older people over the years that are essentially "trapped" in countries like Thailand, Philippines, and Indonesia. They don't seem to mind, but it's all but impossible for them to move back to the US or Canada, even if they wanted to.

During my six years in Taiwan these people were cautionary tales. They were, to a man (it was always men), embittered, dyspeptic drunks keeping expat bars in business as they railed against the host country to any and all who would listen. Or even if nobody wanted to listen.

In the 80s and 90s, teaching ESL in East Asia, what I did, was largely seen as a lark for liberal arts grads wanting to delay the transition to the responsibilities of adulthood for a few years. It wasn't considered a release valve for a younger generation facing the pressure of bad economic prospects. I don't recall any use of the word "exodus" aside from hyperbolic references to the supposed brain drain of highly qualified professionals to the US.

Regardless, Canada was always seen as a haven. Stolid, unexciting, but safe. It's undoubtedly hard to judge these narratives in our age of social media, what with its penchant for creating or amplifying real or imagined trends in the minds of the terminally online, but I can't help but find this anecdotal talk of disaffected and disenfranchised young people a bit frightening.

I also can't help but feel relief at having escaped the expat trap at the right time.

[urbandreamer]

I think we'll see cities decline in population while the middle class moves to small towns and the wealthy continue to inhabit their King Township/Caledon/Innisfil mansions.

Downtown Toronto will become mostly renters.

Meanwhile, I'll either be living in the rural South, Scotland or the outskirts of Bangkok or Manila with my Thai/Filipina wife. Since I can't drink, I'll be sipping on coconut water and bitching about the humidity.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by giallo

I've been following a few exciting bands and the photographers that shoot them in Vancouver. They are mostly made up of young Zoomers (like 19-22 years old). For the last year or so, their Instagram was a window into the "New Underground Vancouver"; very creative people that support each other immensely. It was like watching a new vibrant culture be created in realtime on social media. It was interesting observing this after being away from Canada for so long. It wasn't something you'd see in Seoul, for instance.

Recently, the city shut down their DIY venue. It was where most of these shows were held, and was a safe, cheap space for anyone and everyone. You could tell it was an extremely important gathering place for these people.

Since the closing, the tone of their posts have become a lot more dark. They have nowhere to go that they can afford, so they're on the beaches or in the forest hanging out. There's no more photos of bands playing. No more gig posters about upcoming shows. One photographer posted how she's messed her life up so bad, and has no direction. How she has no choice but to live with her parents even though she's an adult, and should be living on her own.

It's a window into a generation that doesn't understand that it's not their fault. Like, you're not supposed to be able to afford $3000 for a 1 bedroom apartment at 22 years old. They have no reference though. To them, this is how it is, and how it's always been. There's very little historic hindsight when you're 21 years old. You just feel like you're a failure because you can't participate in society like you were shown or taught.

In this regard, Canadian cities have become extremely hostile to younger generations. Getting a job and an apartment are tough enough, but getting a job that pays enough to afford an apartment is even more difficult. So many Gen Zers are all stuck at home, unable to start that next chapter.

I wonder what this generation is going to look like coming out of the other side of this.

That part is an interesting contrast to Millennials, who are at least old enough to remember when things were a little more attainable and it was possible to live modestly on an entry-level salary or minimum wage, even in the most expensive cities.

Millennials were generally at least able to get their foot in the door before things got too crazy, but as they've worked up the corporate ladder and advanced in their careers they've been greeted with the realization that instead of enjoying the traditional spoils of middle age, that they're just treading water and having to do more to maintain the same lifestyles that they had in their 20s.

In only 7 more years the eldest of the Gen Alphas will also be reaching adulthood. Who knows what sort of country they'll be graduating into: perhaps they just won't ever even think of living on their own as an option.

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I actually do think that we'll see more young Canadians continually dispersing to smaller Canadian communities before flocking to places like Lisbon in huge numbers--though I do think that will happen (and is happening) to a lesser degree.

I agree, though the math is making this option increasingly hard to justify. Even small towns in much of Canada only offer a marginal discount when compared to nearby cities, but with fewer job opportunities and a much lower earning potential. They might make sense if you're cashing out of a big city property for a cheaper small town one; but for a renter there's little upside to moving from say, Vancouver to Campbell River.

There are still a few sizable cities with a low-ish cost of living and decent labour market, like Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Saskatoon; but it's a shrinking list and they're growing fast. The list of expensive places outnumbers affordable ones, and the affordable ones are bound to fill up quickly at this rate.

Originally Posted by whatnext

So why don't they leave? I don't mean this is in a GenX vs Zoomer way but virtually everyone outside of the Native American population is here because life in their old country sucked for some reason so they left. Heck, even the "indigenous" population crossed the Bering Land Bridge because presumably life in East Asia at the time wasn't great.

I imagine many will. And considering emigration is at record highs (and immigrant retention at record lows), it is certainly a growing trend. One that will likely only grow stronger in the coming years.

Still, unless you're a dual citizen emigrating isn't necessarily an easy or viable thing to do for most people.

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Still, unless you're a dual citizen emigrating isn't necessarily an easy or viable thing to do for most people.

It seems like greatest thing I did for my son was not saving for his uni but in giving him an EU passport. Who would have thunk

[905er]

honestly. it's like coming home to India more than anything else these days.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

I agree, though the math is making this option increasingly hard to justify. Even small towns in much of Canada only offer a marginal discount when compared to nearby cities, but with fewer job opportunities and a much lower earning potential. They might make sense if you're cashing out of a big city property for a cheaper small town one; but for a renter there's little upside to moving from say, Vancouver to Campbell River.

It's a trend that's mostly appealing to older homeowners who can cash out and those at a place in their career they are able to work remotely. You can get a decent house 2 hours East of Toronto for less than $500k still - a price that's unaffordable to locals but quite appealing to someone used to Toronto prices and has the means. Rentals in these areas aren't considerably cheaper than the City though, especially when taking into account wages - the big difference is you can get a lot more space. Not exactly appealing to younger people who want what the city offers though.

I feel pretty good about our purchase in Napanee for just over $400k despite the amount of work I've had to put into it, though probably not a great thing in the macro sense. Anecdotally there's a growing trend of Torontonians purchasing houses in the area, which most locals see (rightly IMO) as a double-edged sword. Our neighbours are very happy we're fixing up the place and mostly using it for ourselves (even though we are only there about 1/3rd of each month). But also concerned about investment driving up property costs and the dwindling rental stock. Interestingly there's a bunch of infill in our neighbourhood on empty lots and severances of formerly combined lots - almost all of these are rentals owned by an investment company based out of Kingston.

The dearth of relatively affordable places those in our age cohort were able to get in Toronto as recently as the late 2010s is very concerning for the type of creativity that they foster. Giallo mentioned the music scene above - while it's actually going very strong in Toronto right now it's interesting that the younger bands our friend manages are based out of places like Hamilton or Oshawa with at least some members living at home with parents still. In the past they would be more likely to have a shitty (but cheap!) apartment in Toronto's West End.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by giallo

That's always a concern. Living in a place like Bali can offer you a great QOL, but you're not making close to what you would be back home, so any money you save won't really help you if you're planning to move back at some point.

I've met a number of older people over the years that are essentially "trapped" in countries like Thailand, Philippines, and Indonesia. They don't seem to mind, but it's all but impossible for them to move back to the US or Canada, even if they wanted to.

I think the expat phenomenon (which may accelerate, I agree) can mostly be kept separate from the broader trend of people moving to another country to build a new life.

If you look at Canadian citizens living abroad, there are something like 12 times more living in the US than the next country on the list. (Except for Hong Kong which had a huge Canadians-of-Convenience thing going on post-1997.)

So I think that most people who actually grew up in Canada looking to move will still end up massively going to the US, with a smaller trickle going to the more prosperous countries of Europe and Australia.

As for expats, they exist but remain outliers, and I am not even sure that coming back home and not staying is that much of a new trend for them. I think if you're that personality type there is a hesitancy to come back to Boring Ol' Canada (almost like a personal failure), and the chances of coming back and staying are lessened even further if your life partner is not Canadian, which is the case for many expats and globe-trotter types.

I am very close to two of my first cousins. One literally still lives in the house they grew up in with their family in the Maritimes. The fourth or fifth generation of the same family in that house. All significant others have been Acadian.

My other close cousin is the expat globe-trotter type. At least a bit due to my influence in their youth, I must say. Anyway, I just learned yesterday that they'll be moving on to their fourth expat destination in June. Each move has been to a country even more culturally distanced from the culture they grew up in. Spouse is not Canadian. No kids and won't be having any. No chance whatsoever of them ever coming to live in Canada. Much to the chagrin of my aunt and uncle.