Housing market

[HillStreetBlues]

Originally Posted by LRTfan

I feel like much of what we've seen has just put Hamilton back a few years to where certain neighbourhoods were a gong show, but other parts of the city were more calm...my downtown/west end hood is seeing some ridiculous prices in recent listings and sales going full price.

Hamilton is NOT Vancouver or TO. If council stopped pandering to whiners, and actively pursued 10,000 new housing units to be built in the city ASAP, we would see a balancing of price points and rental vacancies. But Hamilton is still anti-business and the ON government is just a joke that couldn't operate an ice cream truck if it had to.

Although I agree that rules about new housing (especially intensification in already built-up areas) should be relaxed to allow for new units, I don't think local or even provincial governments can be blamed for the housing bubble, for the simple reason that it is not restricted to one or even a few regions. Cities as disparate as Victoria, Saskatoon and Hamilton have seen rapid run-ups in price completely divorced from any fundamentals.

It has to be due to low interest rates and the high-leverage financing that has been allowed by the federal government. So, while the provincial government's measures last year spooked some participants, it's rising interest rates, and eventual deleveraging, that will keep this market (not just Hamilton, most Canadian real estate markets) declining.

[bigguy1231]

It appears prices in Hamilton have increased even with the decrease in sales.

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/8...ver-last-year/

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by bigguy1231

It appears prices in Hamilton have increased even with the decrease in sales.

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/8...ver-last-year/

Yep, as I stated a few posts back - not seeing the price budging much... and apparently it's still increasing.

[HillStreetBlues]

That's comparing Q1 2017 to Q1 2018. With that comparison, prices are up (but sales way down).

The Spec could choose any data point at all to feature as their headline, and I guess it makes sense that they would use the one indicating increasing prices.

From that same article: "Residential sales fell by 37.8 per cent in March 2018 compared to a year ago. Sale prices fell by 13.8 per cent, meaning the average in Hamilton-Burlington was $530,843 last month, compared to $615.776 in March last year."

Prices are falling.

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by HillStreetBlues

That's comparing Q1 2017 to Q1 2018. With that comparison, prices are up (but sales way down).

The Spec could choose any data point at all to feature as their headline, and I guess it makes sense that they would use the one indicating increasing prices.

From that same article: "Residential sales fell by 37.8 per cent in March 2018 compared to a year ago. Sale prices fell by 13.8 per cent, meaning the average in Hamilton-Burlington was $530,843 last month, compared to $615.776 in March last year."

Prices are falling.

The problem with using the average is that this could just mean that smaller/lesser quality houses sold more. If more bungalows were sold and less 2-story/bigger homes - then the average price is down, but it doesn't mean the price of the same type of houses were down. What's needed is an apples-to-apples comparison.

Like I said, I'm following the market closely and am barely seeing any price reductions for the same type of homes. My area has new homes and the price seems to be increasing.

[HillStreetBlues]

That's true, the sales mix could be the culprit. On the way up, some people contended that the sales mix was only making it seem that way.

Unfortunately, apples-to-apples is not really possible in real estate, since every property is unique. New tract homes are an exception- which area are you referring to?

[ScreamingViking]

Are Torontonians driving up Hamilton house prices?
On the Toronto to Hamilton exodus, real estate professionals are all over the map, writes Jeff Butters

by Jeff Butters
The Hamilton Spectator
April 15, 2018

Everyone knows that Torontonians are coming to Hamilton in droves and pushing home prices sky high.

Now, Hamilton has become the sixth worst community in the country to buy a home (The Spectator, March 2018).

Where affordability is measured with a home-price-to-income level of 3:1, because of you Toronto, Hamilton is now unaffordable to many, with a home-price-to- income level of 15:1 (6:1 in a two-person household).

Here's what the professionals are saying:

Abdul Kargbo (Market Analyst with CMHC) states, "Slightly over 30 per cent of homes sold in the Hamilton CMA (Burlington/Hamilton/Grimsby) are purchased by Torontonians.

Broker of Record Conrad Zurini calculates that 23-27 per cent of home purchasers in Hamilton are from Toronto.

Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) past-president Lou Piriano says it is 15 per cent (including Burlington sales).

Broker of record Judy Marsales states, "All the hype you hear about Toronto coming to Hamilton is just that — hype."

Er, wait a minute. These professionals are all over the map.

...

read more

[ScreamingViking]

Re: the assertion in that story that the Greenbelt is the cause -- Hamilton is nowhere near being built out yet, and is about to add thousands of homes and residents in the southeast (Elfrida) and the eastern portion of lower Stoney Creek. So the supply argument doesn't hold water for me, unless it's the real estate industry taking advantage of that far future limitation as an excuse to drive up prices.

Should add that Burlington is at the point of build-out, so I could see that argument working in that portion of the market... moving forward. Grimsby still has room for growth too though.

[CaptainKirk]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

Re: the assertion in that story that the Greenbelt is the cause -- Hamilton is nowhere near being built out yet, and is about to add thousands of homes and residents in the southeast (Elfrida) and the eastern portion of lower Stoney Creek. So the supply argument doesn't hold water for me, unless it's the real estate industry taking advantage of that far future limitation as an excuse to drive up prices.

.

Also, that suburban sprawl style development is heavily subsidized. If they were to pay the true cost to service them their taxes would be much higher.

[LRTfan]

Originally Posted by CaptainKirk

Also, that suburban sprawl style development is heavily subsidized. If they were to pay the true cost to service them their taxes would be much higher.

Hamilton is so far behind the rest of the world it's remarkable. Our lower city population continues to shrink, we are turning down multi million investments in the core, further exacerbating the shrinkage....meanwhile, we approve sprawl projects in our sleep without a peep of debate.

And then our politicians sit around whining about our taxes.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

Are Torontonians driving up Hamilton house prices?
On the Toronto to Hamilton exodus, real estate professionals are all over the map, writes Jeff Butters


...

read more

GTA house price 'spillover' driving up prices as far away as Sudbury, Ottawa: CMHC
CMHC data shows sky-high prices in the Greater Toronto Area are pushing homebuyers further afield
Trevor Dunn · CBC News · Posted: Jan 24, 2017 10:36 AM ET | Last Updated: January 24, 2017

Potential homebuyers thinking that a longer commute is their solution to the red-hot real estate market in the Greater Toronto Area should be prepared to spend more time on the road – or relocate, if the results of a new report are any indication.

The report by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) says house price "spillover" is occurring not only in traditional GTA alternatives like Hamilton and Guelph, but also further afield in cities like St. Catharines and even as far away as Sudbury and Ottawa.

"As people relocate to closer areas like Hamilton, the prices there rise, which forces people to relocate a little bit farther out," Jean Sébastien Michel, principal market analyst with CMHC, said in an interview.…

CMHC analysis shows that the effects would be greatest for those markets that are closer to the GTA.

The report says a one per cent house price shock in the GTA would cause a 1.4 per cent price change in Hamilton.


If real estate data seems to be heavily salted, that's because real estate reporting tends to rely on experts in an industry that is secretive and proprietary, and whose business model incentivizes irrational exuberance.

If realtors and industry orgs like RAHB and CMHC were to make their data sets fully public, journalists would have an option aside from reprinting news releases from the usual suspects.

[thistleclub]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

the assertion in that story that the Greenbelt is the cause…doesn't hold water for me, unless it's the real estate industry taking advantage of that far future limitation as an excuse to drive up prices.

Ontario Liberals undermined own plan to control sprawl: Walkom
(Toronto Star, Thomas Walkom, Nov 8 2013)

Seven years ago, the Ontario Liberal government trumpeted its new law to curb urban sprawl as bold and visionary.

“People want to see action,” David Caplan, the province’s then infrastructure minister, said after announcing the province’s fully fleshed-out Places to Grow Act in 2006.

Acting in tandem with the Liberal plan to create a green belt, Places to Grow was designed to protect farmland in southern Ontario’s so-called Golden Horseshoe.

Unless something drastic was done, an earlier government study had warned, rampant urban development would result in an additional 1,000 square kilometres of mainly agricultural land — an area twice as big as the entire City of Toronto — being paved over by the year 2031.

Caplan called the new law Ontario’s “last chance to build the future we want.”

The Liberals were lionized for the new scheme by both press and public. The government even won a prestigious U.S. planning award.

But seven years later, it is as if nothing had ever happened.

A new study by the Neptis Foundation, an urban think tank, calculates that the amount of prime farmland slated for urban development by 2031 has in fact increased since the government uttered its first, dire warning.

That new total now stands at 1,071 square kilometres.

What happened? As the Star’s Susan Pigg reported this week, Neptis found that the Liberal government simply never bothered to implement its bold new law.

That law, Neptis writes in its just-released report, “has been undermined before it even had a chance to make an impact.”

....

The theory, apparently, was that while the government would grant exemptions that made sense, it wouldn’t allow the act to be subverted.

However, the reality, as Neptis researchers found, was quite different.

In effect, the Liberal government allowed every municipality that wanted to be exempted from the new standards to be exempted.

“There was very little justification given as to why exemptions were permitted,” report co-author Rian Allen told me.

“Those who asked for exemptions appeared to get them.”

Read it in full here

[hamilton23]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

Are Torontonians driving up Hamilton house prices?
On the Toronto to Hamilton exodus, real estate professionals are all over the map, writes Jeff Butters

by Jeff Butters
The Hamilton Spectator
April 15, 2018

Everyone knows that Torontonians are coming to Hamilton in droves and pushing home prices sky high.

Now, Hamilton has become the sixth worst community in the country to buy a home (The Spectator, March 2018).

Where affordability is measured with a home-price-to-income level of 3:1, because of you Toronto, Hamilton is now unaffordable to many, with a home-price-to- income level of 15:1 (6:1 in a two-person household).

Here's what the professionals are saying:

Abdul Kargbo (Market Analyst with CMHC) states, "Slightly over 30 per cent of homes sold in the Hamilton CMA (Burlington/Hamilton/Grimsby) are purchased by Torontonians.

Broker of Record Conrad Zurini calculates that 23-27 per cent of home purchasers in Hamilton are from Toronto.

Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) past-president Lou Piriano says it is 15 per cent (including Burlington sales).

Broker of record Judy Marsales states, "All the hype you hear about Toronto coming to Hamilton is just that — hype."

Er, wait a minute. These professionals are all over the map.

...

read more

The most legitimate source here is Abdul Kargbo (Market Analyst with CMHC) who stated, "Slightly over 30 per cent of homes sold in the Hamilton CMA (Burlington/Hamilton/Grimsby) are purchased by Torontonians.


Is it over 30%? I'm not sure if it's that high just yet. It may be a tad lower, but he's the closest for sure.

And regarding the claim by Judy Marsales.... "All the hype you hear about Toronto coming to Hamilton is just that — hype."

I'm not sure what the context is with this quote.

Does she mean Hamilton is not turning into a Toronto type city? This is obvious. We're unique and our own city. Is she saying that people from Toronto aren't buying property in Hamilton?

Because that's far from the truth. Developers/Investors are buying up large parcels of land, investors are purchasing condos and homes every single day in Hamilton. Are people actually moving from Toronto to Hamilton to live? The answer to this is Yes, but it's not happening like crazy just yet. Toronto residents are buying investment properties in Hamilton more so at the moment, but a lot of them intended to one day live in said investment property.

[Berklon]

All I know is when I was visiting Open Houses for a long period of time, almost all of them would have at least 1 person/couple from Toronto at the viewings.

It was frustrating to know that I was competing against people who thought these 500k+ houses were bargains.

[Sehnsucht]

Originally Posted by Berklon

All I know is when I was visiting Open Houses for a long period of time, almost all of them would have at least 1 person/couple from Toronto at the viewings.

It was frustrating to know that I was competing against people who thought these 500k+ houses were bargains.

The 30 per cent is pretty close to accurate according to my real estate lawyer, who says that he closes a lot of GTA-buyer deals.

Anecdotally, I sold my house to a young Oakville couple last spring--and that was pretty much unheard of even a few years ago.

It's happening and it's a (pretty) good thing.

[LRTfan]

Torontonians are NOT driving up Hamilton's real estate prices.

Hamilton City Hall is by constantly turning down urban housing projects.

[Sehnsucht]

Originally Posted by LRTfan

Torontonians are NOT driving up Hamilton's real estate prices.

Hamilton City Hall is by constantly turning down urban housing projects.

Torontonians are certainly contributing, and other real estate refugees, albeit they're not the only cause. Toronto is hyper-gentrifying, so it's inevitable that all Golden Horseshoe communities will see spillover. Here it comes. So far, the pace and projects are decent. Could be better but not bad.

While I want TV City to happen as planned, its being declined isn't exactly contributing to a housing crisis. It's just now condos are much more attractive because of their cost compared to single-detached homes. And the downtown lifestyle is exponentially superior to what it was even five years ago.

[LRTfan]

Originally Posted by Sehnsucht

Torontonians are certainly contributing, and other real estate refugees, albeit they're not the only cause. Toronto is hyper-gentrifying, so it's inevitable that all Golden Horseshoe communities will see spillover. Here it comes. So far, the pace and projects are decent. Could be better but not bad.

While I want TV City to happen as planned, its being declined isn't exactly contributing to a housing crisis. It's just now condos are much more attractive because of their cost compared to single-detached homes. And the downtown lifestyle is exponentially superior to what it was even five years ago.

TV City is just one project. There are thousands of urban units that have been turned down by city hall, or being dragged out at the OMB simply because entitled home owners nearby complain constantly.

[manny_santos]

Originally Posted by Sehnsucht

Torontonians are certainly contributing, and other real estate refugees, albeit they're not the only cause. Toronto is hyper-gentrifying, so it's inevitable that all Golden Horseshoe communities will see spillover. Here it comes. So far, the pace and projects are decent. Could be better but not bad.

While I want TV City to happen as planned, its being declined isn't exactly contributing to a housing crisis. It's just now condos are much more attractive because of their cost compared to single-detached homes. And the downtown lifestyle is exponentially superior to what it was even five years ago.

I may be one of the next ones coming to join your city. I've been stuck in an isolated Toronto suburb for several years and have been dying to live in a downtown area again, but I simply can't afford to live anywhere desirable in Toronto. Plus I travel into Southwestern Ontario very frequently so Hamilton is a convenient location.

[drpgq]

Where to buy real estate in Hamilton 2018
Ottawa Street is the consensus hot neighbourhood pick for real estate in Hamilton

http://www.moneysense.ca/spend/real-...l-estate-2018/

Hamilton’s real estate market has been on fire for years, but in the first half of 2017, the flames were getting out of control.

Many buyers come to Hamilton looking for relief from Toronto’s overheated market, but Hamilton-based RE/MAX realtor Dorothy Heaslip said they were experiencing the same frustrations. Bidding wars were driving prices up far over asking, leaving Heaslip and her clients disappointed and frustrated.

Then, in April, Ontario passed the Fair Housing Plan, placing a 15-per-cent tax on foreigners buying property in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Within a couple of months, the market had drastically changed.