City Murder Rates

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

Thanks for that cliffhanger!

Surely it can be discussed...

Sweden (and Scandinavian Countries as a whole) has seen an uptick in immigration, specifically from Middle East/African Countries, and in many instances are creating animosity with the native swedes; crime/violence being one example why many in Scandinavian Countries do not welcome African / Mid East people.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

Sweden (and Scandinavian Countries as a whole) has seen an uptick in immigration, specifically from Middle East/African Countries, and in many instances are creating animosity with the native swedes; crime/violence being one example why many in Scandinavian Countries do not welcome African / Mid East people.

We all knew this. It's just something you can't say. We'll see if it doesn't get deleted lol

[ilcapo]

To give some perspective:

Malmö, which is the city in Sweden with the highest percentage of immigrants and also considered the worst affected by gun crime has for the past 10 years or so had an average rate of 4 per 100.000, which would still be on the lower part of the list among American cities together with cities such as Seattle, St Paul and Portland.

Stockholm would be top 10 bottom, even under that of "safe" cities such as San Diego.

Oslo and Copenhagen would be at the very bottom.

[bossabreezes]

Are we sure it's the native swedes causing the violence, or could it be the new arrivals?

[dc_denizen]

Native Swedes are not causing the violence

Interesting so New York City has half the gun violence rate of Malmö?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

To give some perspective:

Malmö, which is the city in Sweden with the highest percentage of immigrants and also considered the worst affected by gun crime has for the past 10 years or so had an average rate of 4 per 100.000, which would still be on the lower part of the list among American cities together with cities such as Seattle, St Paul and Portland.

Stockholm would be top 10 bottom, even under that of "safe" cities such as San Diego.

Oslo and Copenhagen would be at the very bottom.

This is not to bash on Sweden (several Canadian cities have similar issues right now) but I think it's more relevant to compare the situation in Stockholm or Malmo to how things were not that long ago. As opposed to comparing them to troubled American cities like Detroit or Baltimore.

I mean, Baltimore and Detroit's homicide rates actually look pretty good compared to somewhere like San Pedro Sula, Honduras.

If I look at Canada not that long ago a city like Toronto had a homicide rate similar to that of Western European cities like Paris or London, or like the major Australian cities such as Melbourne or Sydney. In the 1 to 1.5 per 100,000 range.

But in recent years in Toronto it's generally hovering around the 3 per 100,000 range, or sometimes a bit above or a bit below that.

Now that New York City has undergone such a huge drop in murders, its rate and Toronto's are about the same. I believe in one recent year Toronto's rate was even higher than NYC.

When I was a kid in the 80s and 90s if you would have told me Toronto would have a higher murder rate than NYC, I would have sent you to have your head examined.

[ilcapo]

The people in these criminal organizations are very often 2nd generation immigrants.

Among those arrested for murder, especially gun-crime within criminal groups, its quite rare for them to be "newly arrived" immigrants.

Many of them are under 18.

I think the Canada-Sweden-comparision is quite fair as they are similar countries in many ways.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Acajack

If I look at Canada not that long ago a city like Toronto had a homicide rate similar to that of Western European cities like Paris or London, or like the major Australian cities such as Melbourne or Sydney. In the 1 to 1.5 per 100,000 range.

But in recent years in Toronto it's generally hovering around the 3 per 100,000 range, or sometimes a bit above or a bit below that.

Not really the case.




Accounting for population growth, the homicide rate has generally stayed pretty flat if not gone down slightly, with of course the occasional year where things spike (1991, 2007, 2018, etc), usually somewhere around ~2-2.5/100,000.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ilcapo

The people in these criminal organizations are very often 2nd generation immigrants.

Among those arrested for murder, especially gun-crime within criminal groups, its quite rare for them to be "newly arrived" immigrants.

Many of them are under 18.

I think the Canada-Sweden-comparision is quite fair as they are similar countries in many ways.

Yes, in Canada the cities that have seen a recent upsurge in gun crime (Toronto, Ottawa) the perpetrators and victims tend to be 2nd and 3rd generation Canadian-born kids of immigrant origin. Not actual immigrants themselves. And definitely not all immigrant groups. (In actual fact, the vast majority of immigrant groups have very low crime rates across all age groups and demographics.)

The main exception is Winnipeg where violent crime disproportionately affects the Indigenous population.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Not really the case.



Accounting for population growth, the homicide rate has generally stayed pretty flat if not gone down slightly, with of course the occasional year where things spike (1991, 2007, 2018, etc), usually somewhere around ~2-2.5/100,000.

Indeed - I was looking for a similar graph. The homicide rate during the 90s in Toronto would have been a bit higher than now accounting for growth. A lot of areas that are now gentrified were definitely on the sketchy side back then (where I live, for instance). I'm not sure about gun crime, and suspect that there have been recent peaks on that front.

When it comes to NYC comparisons it's more that their murder rate has dropped dramatically.

[suburbanite]

It's worth noting that while the murder count for the City of Toronto is relatively steady, violence has spilled from the notorious neighborhoods on the fringe of the city into nearby Peel and York. The chart for the 905 would look a lot different.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

It's worth noting that while the murder count for the City of Toronto is relatively steady, violence has spilled from the notorious neighborhoods on the fringe of the city into nearby Peel and York. The chart for the 905 would look a lot different.

It's not even close to a war zone image or to the point where they'd avoid it but it's definitely true that many many people (residents and visitors alike) would say that the GTA doesn't feel as safe as it did not that long ago.

And I don't think that's simply related to the city getting bigger, me getting older or people getting more racist, etc.

People also feel this way about Ottawa at the moment, though not about Montreal or Vancouver in my observation.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yes, in Canada the cities that have seen a recent upsurge in gun crime (Toronto, Ottawa) the perpetrators and victims tend to be 2nd and 3rd generation Canadian-born kids of immigrant origin.

I mean, that's basically a truism when pretty much the entire population are either immigrants or 2nd and 3rd generation Canadians. Who else would it be?

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's not even close to a war zone image or to the point where they'd avoid it but it's definitely true that many many people (residents and visitors alike) would say that the GTA doesn't feel as safe as it did not that long ago.

And I don't think that's simply related to the city getting bigger, me getting older or people getting more racist, etc.

Lots of people have always had thoughts like this about many places. Whether or not it's true is another matter.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

I mean, that's basically a truism when pretty much the entire population are either immigrants or 2nd and 3rd generation Canadians. Who else would it be?
.

That's kinda sidetracking things though. Immmigrants (the foreign-born) from whatever country, X, Y or Z, anywhere in Canada, typically aren't involved in any violent crime at all.

When you get to their Canadian-born offspring, those whose parents are from X and Y aren't generally involved in violent crime either, but for whatever reason, in certain cities, kids from group Z very often are.

[Crawford]

I've watched the Toronto nightly local news, and it seems the demographic of GTA shooters/victims is overwhelmingly black, not really different from urban America. The main difference is the sobbing friends/relatives are more likely to have Carribean or West African accents.

Given that the GTA black population is almost entirely immigrant-derived, it could be a correlation/causation issue. The assimiled generation(s) assume established norms, which unfortunately for young black males means a higher rate of involvement in gun violence.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Lots of people have always had thoughts like this about many places. Whether or not it's true is another matter.

Yes, we're all familiar with Dr. Everythingwillbeallright.

Still, I don't understand why Toronto would necessarily have murder rates twice or three times as high as those in the 1.5 or 1 per 100,000 range that you typically see in cities like London and Paris, or Sydney and Melbourne, and even Montreal.

The same goes for the frequency of shootings I am sure.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yes, we're all familiar with Dr. Everythingwillbeallright.

Still, I don't understand why Toronto would necessarily have murder rates twice or three times as high as those in the 1.5 or 1 per 100,000 range that you typically see in cities like London and Paris, or Sydney and Melbourne, and even Montreal.

The same goes for the frequency of shootings I am sure.

Canada in general tends to have a murder rate on the higher side amongst it's peer nations. The GTA's rate is pretty much in line with that national average though. The city proper being higher of course, but still outpaced by several other Canadian cities in any given year.

Still, even in safe, prosperous countries there exist many cities with higher-than-average murder rates either consistently or for a few years at a time during outbreaks of gang violence. European cities like Amsterdam, Berlin, Naples, Malmö, and others all have or have had homicide rates in line with Toronto. Or, remember when Montreal used to have 100+ murders per year?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Canada in general tends to have a murder rate on the higher side amongst it's peer nations. The GTA's rate is pretty much in line with that national average though. The city proper being higher of course, but still outpaced by several other Canadian cities in any given year.

Still, even in safe, prosperous countries there exist many cities with higher-than-average murder rates either consistently or for a few years at a time during outbreaks of gang violence. European cities like Amsterdam, Berlin, Naples, Malmö, and others all have or have had homicide rates in line with Toronto. Or, remember when Montreal used to have 100+ murders per year?

And murders have gone down from over 100 to the 25-30 range in Montreal over the past couple of decades.

Why wouldn't one want that to happen in Toronto? Instead of the opposite trend?

[Doady]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

It's worth noting that while the murder count for the City of Toronto is relatively steady, violence has spilled from the notorious neighborhoods on the fringe of the city into nearby Peel and York. The chart for the 905 would look a lot different.

In the past, immigrants came directly to Toronto. Now they come directly into Peel and York instead of Toronto. So not surprisingly the murder rate has shifted also. You can also see the cost of immigration reflected in the increased transit ridership in Peel and billions being spent on LRT and BRT there. It's just more cost to taxpayer for policing and transit that maybe could have been easily avoided with different immigration policy.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Doady

In the past, immigrants came directly to Toronto. Now they come directly into Peel and York instead of Toronto. So not surprisingly the murder rate has shifted also. You can also see the cost of immigration reflected in the increased transit ridership in Peel and billions being spent on LRT and BRT there. It's just more cost to taxpayer for policing and transit that maybe could have been easily avoided with different immigration policy.

As we've said before, it's not immigrants (and even more precisely, not even the children or grandchildren of all immigrants) who are usually involved in violent crime.

So while there is as you say a spread of the demographic impact of immigration to the suburbs, the violent crime impact is not spread out equally at all.

It's noticeably higher in Peel (to the west) than it is in York (north) and Durham (east).

It all depends on (in terms of origins) who is moving where.