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  #1461  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2020, 4:25 PM
Hackslack Hackslack is offline
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From the Global Sea Level Graph, from my rough take off, between 1880 to 2010, the sea level rose 200 mm, which equates to 1.5 mm per year.

Per the link below from Smithsonian, over the past 20,000 years the sea level rose 120,000 mm, which equates to 6 mm per year on average.

https://ocean.si.edu/through-time/an...of%20mountains.
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  #1462  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2020, 5:23 PM
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From that link provided, under the Additional Resources section there are cool links to the NASA Images of Change and NASA Climate Time Machine which shows the impact of climate Change over the past few decades... cool visual of the already known impacts.

Actually a lot of great info in there. For me one that stood out was that Thermal Expansion of the oceans in that obviously water expands as it heats up, while on a minuscule level it really is not detectable, but when we're talking about the size of the ocean, even from a few degs change, the thermal expansion has a significant impact... anyway, cool info to learn about
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  #1463  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2020, 5:42 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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Originally Posted by Hackslack View Post
Actually a lot of great info in there. For me one that stood out was that Thermal Expansion of the oceans in that obviously water expands as it heats up, while on a minuscule level it really is not detectable, but when we're talking about the size of the ocean, even from a few degs change, the thermal expansion has a significant impact... anyway, cool info to learn about
Yes, it's huge. That is what contributes to sea level rise, not melting ice caps.
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  #1464  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2020, 6:23 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
Yes, it's huge. That is what contributes to sea level rise, not melting ice caps.
I need to read up on this more, but I'll ask the question anyway, and may seem very elementary, so forgive me... does anyone know to what depth the change in sea level temperature reaches to a point where there is no noticable difference. I mean, 4 deg C change in thermal expansion within 50 mm of ocean surface will be significantly more than at 1,000 mm or 10,000 mm.
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  #1465  
Old Posted Jun 24, 2020, 6:45 PM
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In addition to thermal expansion there is thermal absorption, which is much more threatening as it is compounded.

As sea ice melts in the summer, it exposes the dark ocean surface. Instead of reflecting 80 percent of the sunlight, the ocean absorbs 90 percent of the sunlight*. More melt, more absorption, thus more melt, more absorption....a vicious cycle (aka, positive feedback loop). Also with permafrost melting, more methane trapped in the permafrost is released, which in turn raises temperature, thus melting more permafrost....

*https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/seaice.html
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  #1466  
Old Posted Jun 30, 2020, 1:07 AM
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Apocalypse Never

Apocalypse Never - An environmentalists comes clean, writes mea culpa new book!

On behalf of environmentalists everywhere, I would like to formally apologize for the climate scare we created over the last 30 years. Climate change is happening. It’s just not the end of the world. It’s not even our most serious environmental problem. 

I may seem like a strange person to be saying all of this.I have been a climate activist for 20 years and an environmentalist for 30. 
But as an energy expert asked by Congress to provide objective expert testimony, and invited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to serve as Expert Reviewer of its next Assessment Report, I feel an obligation to apologize for how badly we environmentalists have misled the public.

Here are some facts few people know:
* Humans are not causing a “sixth mass extinction” 
* The Amazon is not “the lungs of the world”
* Climate change is not making natural disasters worse
* Fires have declined 25% around the world since 2003
* The amount of land we use for meat — humankind’s biggest use of land — has declined by an area nearly as large as Alaska
* The build-up of wood fuel and more houses near forests, not climate change, explain why there are more, and more dangerous, fires in Australia and California
* Carbon emissions are declining in most rich nations and have been declining in Britain, Germany, and France since the mid-1970s 
* Netherlands became rich not poor while adapting to life below sea level
* We produce 25% more food than we need and food surpluses will continue to rise as the world gets hotter
* Habitat loss and the direct killing of wild animals are bigger threats to species than climate change
* Wood fuel is far worse for people and wildlife than fossil fuels
* Preventing future pandemics requires more not less “industrial” agriculture
*
I know that the above facts will sound like “climate denialism” to many people. But that just shows the power of climate alarmism. 

In reality, the above facts come from the best-available scientific studies, including those conducted by or accepted by the IPCC, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and other leading scientific bodies. .......

Why were we all so misled? Environmental groups have accepted hundreds of millions of dollars from fossil fuel interests. Groups motivated by anti-humanist beliefs forced the World Bank to stop trying to end poverty and instead make poverty “sustainable.” And status anxiety, depression, and hostility to modern civilization are behind much of the alarmism. Once you realize just how badly misinformed we have been, often by people with plainly unsavory or unhealthy motivations, it is hard not to feel duped. 


http://environmentalprogress.org/big...-climate-scare
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  #1467  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:05 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Electric car sales this year resist Covid-19’s blow to global car market

15 June 2020

The number of electric cars on the road is expected to reach almost 10 million this year, as sales grow this year despite the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a new report by International Energy Agency.

Electric car sales are expected to fare better than the overall passenger car market, with EV sales this year to broadly match the 2.1 million sold in 2019, according to the latest edition of the IEA’s Global EV Outlook. This would account for a record 3% of the total global car sales. Based on data from January to April this year, total global passenger car sales this year are set to decline by 15%.
Source: https://www.iea.org/news/electric-ca...bal-car-market
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  #1468  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:08 PM
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Yep, the age of ICE vehicles is coming to an end. It will be decades before they disappear completely (especially for specialty usage), but I could see 25% electrics in five years and 50-60% electrics in 10 years.

Those people in Alberta hanging their hats on the oil industry had better take notice.........
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  #1469  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:13 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
Yep, the age of ICE vehicles is coming to an end. It will be decades before they disappear completely (especially for specialty usage), but I could see 25% electrics in five years and 50-60% electrics in 10 years.

Those people in Alberta hanging their hats on the oil industry had better take notice.........
LOL. That is much more optimistic than even myself. I could see 25% EV sales in 5 years in several developed countries (probably not Canada). But there's a 5-10 year lag between sales and installed base. 25% EV sales in 2025 would mean that total car fleet being 25% electric won't happen till the mid 2030s.

What screws up Alberta's plans though, is the mere confirmation that EVs are viable and people are adopting them. That happens and investment in oil & gas starts drying up really quickly.
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  #1470  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:20 PM
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I would say there's a 50/50 chance my next new car will be an EV (depending on how long my current vehicles last).
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  #1471  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:27 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post


I would say there's a 50/50 chance my next new car will be an EV (depending on how long my current vehicles last).
I'm gonna check out the VW ID4 when it comes to Canada next year. Assuming my condo can figure out charging by then. But there's finally models coming online that are decent and more affordable than their equivalent Tesla.
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  #1472  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 3:45 PM
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Electric Vehicle technology is moving quickly, but I think a new battery technology is needed before we see EV overtake ICE. Lithium batteries are unstable and require a lot of time to charge, and I'm not confident there is enough Lithium for about a billion electric cars.
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  #1473  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 4:51 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Electric Vehicle technology is moving quickly, but I think a new battery technology is needed before we see EV overtake ICE. Lithium batteries are unstable and require a lot of time to charge, and I'm not confident there is enough Lithium for about a billion electric cars.
Meh. These tired lines have been repeated for years. And with every year that passes, they are proven wrong.

There probably will be battery tech that replaces Li-Ion down the road. But that is all but irrelevant to EV sales today as growing battery production capacity keeps cutting battery prices. At $200/kWh, the battery pack becomes competitive with gas cars. And several OEMs are there or will be there in the next few years. The chemical composition of the battery is irrelevant. Only the price is relevant to adoption.

More broadly, this being a North American forum, there's the projection that all driving is like North America and you need 600 km of range in -30C weather for an EV to be useful. Except that most of the world has nowhere near the demands on their cars that we have. So the rest of the world can adopt EVs much earlier than us. The market will be growing elsewhere. We'll be among the last of the developed countries to see EV uptake.
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  #1474  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 4:59 PM
milomilo milomilo is offline
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Stuff like this would be a complimentary industry in places with lots of oil wells:

New tech aims to extract lithium for electric car batteries from oilfield waste
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  #1475  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 5:04 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
Stuff like this would be a complimentary industry in places with lots of oil wells:

New tech aims to extract lithium for electric car batteries from oilfield waste
I've said numerous times before that Canada should be pushing this hard.
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  #1476  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 5:53 PM
WarrenC12 WarrenC12 is offline
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Tesla has a "battery day" investor meeting scheduled in September. It's been long rumoured they have something that's cheaper/lighter/denser (pick 2 of those) that will enable some the performance and pricing they are advertising for the Cybertruck and Semi.

Consumers look at new cars every 5-10 years, but fleets replace en masse a lot faster. I expect the Semi to take off for at least local routes, and hopefully Rivian's delivery vans come online as well. They will start to put a real dent in transportation emissions.

I hope one or more of the OEMs can produce an EV people want to buy in large numbers, but it hasn't happened yet. Musk mentioned a potential smaller Tesla to be produced at the new plant in Germany for the European market.
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  #1477  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 6:07 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post
I hope one or more of the OEMs can produce an EV people want to buy in large numbers, but it hasn't happened yet.
VW is. I think the ID3 will be a gamechanger when it starts shipping in the Fall. Specifically because of the price/value point.


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Musk mentioned a potential smaller Tesla to be produced at the new plant in Germany for the European market.
Tesla "cheap" =\= Mass adoption price. They want to be the BMW of EVs. Hopefully VW will be the VW of EVs.....

The mythical US$35 000 Model 3 kinda shows this. They don't sell it directly. You have to special order it. Can't order it online. It's there for marketing.
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  #1478  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 6:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
Meh. These tired lines have been repeated for years. And with every year that passes, they are proven wrong.

There probably will be battery tech that replaces Li-Ion down the road. But that is all but irrelevant to EV sales today as growing battery production capacity keeps cutting battery prices. At $200/kWh, the battery pack becomes competitive with gas cars. And several OEMs are there or will be there in the next few years. The chemical composition of the battery is irrelevant. Only the price is relevant to adoption.

More broadly, this being a North American forum, there's the projection that all driving is like North America and you need 600 km of range in -30C weather for an EV to be useful. Except that most of the world has nowhere near the demands on their cars that we have. So the rest of the world can adopt EVs much earlier than us. The market will be growing elsewhere. We'll be among the last of the developed countries to see EV uptake.
Don't be such a fanboy and actually read the comment you are trying to refute. I said recharging is an issue (which it is, will take about an hour to get back to full charge, longer with bigger batteries) I said volatility is an issue (google thermal runaway and you will see) and I said there are serious concerns about the global supply of Lithium. I never argued against EV's just stated that the next battery tech will be required to surpass ICE. And if you think the developed countries will lead the way, well that's just nuts! There is no way the poorest people will lead the way with a more expensive technology. I think it will be quite a while before you see electric Tuk Tuks plying the streets of the poor tourist cities of the world lol.
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  #1479  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 6:12 PM
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Originally Posted by WarrenC12 View Post

I hope one or more of the OEMs can produce an EV people want to buy in large numbers, but it hasn't happened yet. Musk mentioned a potential smaller Tesla to be produced at the new plant in Germany for the European market.
Polestar is the company I'm watching closely, Volvo has their shit together (my next car is likely a Volvo) but the cost may be the biggest hurdle as these cars look very expensive!
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  #1480  
Old Posted Jul 13, 2020, 6:43 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is offline
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Originally Posted by Calgarian View Post
Don't be such a fanboy
Did grad school work on the topic. Call me a super fanboy if you must. On a military exchange at a US service academy, with the focus on alternative energy tech for combat systems and the strategic implications. I've been lucky enough to get exposure to where the tech is actually going. All that is to say, I'm not somebody coming at this from just watching YouTube videos (though they can be useful!). That's where I'm coming from....

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Originally Posted by Calgarian View Post
I said recharging is an issue (which it is, will take about an hour to get back to full charge, longer with bigger batteries)
Recharging time is not hurting sales at all. It's an issue to those who have never owned one. And here's why: you don't need a full charge every time you step into your car. Just like you don't need a full tank of gas every time you drive. For the average commuter charging times are entirely irrelevant because all charging is done at home or work when the car is not in use.

The only time charging is relevant is on roadtrips. And even there the impact is debatable. Doing a 500km roadtrip? Stop for 30 mins at a fast charger en route and get to 80% and you're covered. Or do two 15 min breaks. And that's about all it would take to get from say Ottawa or Montreal to Toronto. A 10 min piss break would be enough between Calgary and Edmonton or Montreal and Quebec City. Longer than gas? Sure. But for how often people do these trips? Not a huge concern.

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Originally Posted by Calgarian View Post
I said volatility is an issue (google thermal runaway and you will see)
If you've actually googled it, you should have read about thermal management systems and how they are now basic on EVs and have substantially improved over the last few years.

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Originally Posted by Calgarian View Post
I said there are serious concerns about the global supply of Lithium.
This is about as serious as those who say the world is going to run out of oil. Lithium is plentiful. What is lacking is economical sources of it. But those come online as demand for the commodity grow. And long before we reach any real constraint, we'll see alternatives like iron-air batteries commercialized.

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Originally Posted by Calgarian View Post
I never argued against EV's just stated that the next battery tech will be required to surpass ICE.
I'm suggesting that your take is not very informed. Or at least, not up to date.

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Originally Posted by Calgarian View Post
And if you think the developed countries will lead the way, well that's just nuts! There is no way the poorest people will lead the way with a more expensive technology. I think it will be quite a while before you see electric Tuk Tuks plying the streets of the poor tourist cities of the world lol.
I think developed countries will lead the way on consumer level EVs. But developing countries are not going to lag behind substantially. And may lead in some cases. For example, China is the largest EV market in the world today. 40% of all EVs sold in the world are sold in China. Unlike, North America, for developing countries who don't have large oil reserves, importing oil is a major strategic and economic vulnerability. If they can get consumers and public to accept cheap EVs with compromises, it's a win. And the Chinese are starting to do just that and exporting those EVs to other emerging markets.

Your mocking example of electric Tuk Tuks proves my point. Far easier to electrify a rickshaw in India than an SUV in Canada. And the payoff is substantially higher too. So electric Tuk Tuks are catching on in Asia now. Bet you didn't know that there's over a million electric rickshaws in India alone and that they serve 60 million riders a day.

Video Link


Like I said. Too many here project their understanding of driving habits from North America and assume the rest of the world is the same.

Last edited by Truenorth00; Jul 13, 2020 at 7:06 PM.
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