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  #101  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2014, 6:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Boris2k7 View Post
2.5% of 4,000,000 people is a lot more people than 4% of 1,000,000. If anything, it's a wonder that we can maintain these kinds of rates.

Yeah that is true. How amazing would it be to see our growth increase to 4%/annum again? It would probably be scary too. The province can already barely keep up with infrastructure. More people means a bigger tax base though, so maybe it's worth it in the long run. Look at Western Calgary's current situation with the sewage and water main lines being past capacity though.
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  #102  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2014, 7:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
Yeah that is true. How amazing would it be to see our growth increase to 4%/annum again? It would probably be scary too. The province can already barely keep up with infrastructure. More people means a bigger tax base though, so maybe it's worth it in the long run. Look at Western Calgary's current situation with the sewage and water main lines being past capacity though.
Starting with a population of about 4 million, 10 years of 4% annual growth would mean adding nearly 2 million people. Not only would that be rather unlikely, it would be VERY problematic. Probably more trouble than it would be worth. I don't know if "amazing" would be the best term.
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  #103  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2014, 7:38 PM
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Yeah, I didn't necessarily mean for ten years straight, just like a couple years or something. You are right though, that would be fucking mental.
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  #104  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2014, 8:52 AM
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Yeah, I didn't necessarily mean for ten years straight, just like a couple years or something. You are right though, that would be fucking mental.
I figured you meant for just a couple years. But even a year or two of that would mean adding significantly more population than current growth rates.
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  #105  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2014, 6:08 PM
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Metro Calgary is already growing at 56 000/ year. That is 4.1% per year the last couple years.

56 000 is 4.11% of 1 364 000.


The province of Alberta grew by 137 000 over the last year. That is 3.4% growth, not quite 4% but pretty close.
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  #106  
Old Posted Mar 28, 2014, 6:41 PM
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According to this spreadsheet, the population grew by 21 852 over the last 3 months... by the next quarterly estimate, we will be well past 4.1 million.

http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistic...y_pop_prov.pdf
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  #107  
Old Posted May 9, 2014, 2:35 PM
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4.2 million by Q4? I think so.
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  #108  
Old Posted May 11, 2014, 1:12 AM
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When do you think we will surpass B.C.'s population?
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  #109  
Old Posted May 11, 2014, 7:17 AM
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Probably around the 2021 Census.
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  #110  
Old Posted May 12, 2014, 5:31 PM
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It all depends. It's very hard to forecast, especially considering the impending boom in BC which may have just started over the past 6 months. Alberta will almost certainly surpass BC eventually, but if it's by 2021 or 2031 is anyones guess at this point. One thing is sure though, the west is definitely showing its muscles, with two provinces set to hit 5 million within the next 10 years!
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  #111  
Old Posted May 12, 2014, 7:35 PM
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People keep mentioning this "impending" boom in BC, after these rough few years, but you can't rely on that until it actually happens. I doubt 5 years ago British Columbians were expecting to enter 5 years of very slow growth.
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  #112  
Old Posted May 12, 2014, 7:50 PM
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Well it already has started, there is data to prove it. I can't find it right now, but it was posted somewhere in the Vancouver section by LeftCoaster last week. BC apparently added more jobs than Alberta so far this year.
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  #113  
Old Posted May 12, 2014, 7:59 PM
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Then it is no longer impending . But yeah, I'd love to see the stats as I don't read the Vancouver section much.
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  #114  
Old Posted May 12, 2014, 8:02 PM
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BC is in for some mixed times. The boom that people keep referring to has much to do with the proposed LNG terminals on the west coast and the associated activity in NE BC from the gas production that would go with it. Keep in mind that the number of terminals that have been formally approved by energy producers, applied for, and approved by the government is exactly zero. The same goes for the number of pipelines needed to get the gas to the west coast. In other words nothing has officially happened yet and this boom is all speculation. Now hopefully some of the projects will come to pass and the province will see the benefits of this activity but let's not get ahead of things.

Secondly there is going to be a painful adjustment in many small towns that rely on the forestry sector. As the pine beetle infestation works it's way through the system there are going to be a lot of mills closing and towns hurting.
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  #115  
Old Posted May 12, 2014, 8:02 PM
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It depends what is driving immigration to BC. Alberta benefits a bunch from the double bump, immigrants then babies.
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  #116  
Old Posted May 12, 2014, 8:22 PM
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My ears were burning. Here's the post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeftCoaster View Post
Some absolutely fantastic figures from StatsCan for BC to start off the year:

Looks like BC had an incredible month, adding 18,300 jobs from Feb 2014 to Mar 2014, that's roughly 5,000 MORE than red hot Alberta. As a result the provincial unemployment rate has dropped some 60 basis points from 6.4% to 5.8%.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...fss01c-eng.htm
This was only a small snap shot in time, and personally I don't expect BC to outpace Alberta for the rest of the year, but it is certainly some badly needed good news for BC. If it can even keep pace that would be astounding, as I dont know anywhere going like Alberta is right now.

That said I do expect the next 5 years to be good to BC, it is a province that relies heavily on the US economy, moreso than likely every province save Ontario, and with the US about to hit some big growth it bodes well. Add that to the LNG work going on up north and things will be better in BC than they have been over the past 5 years, we'll see if it can keep pace with Alberta though. My personal guess is moderate growth in 2014 for BC but larger in 2015 and onwards with strong growth in Alberta for the next 3 years.
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  #117  
Old Posted May 16, 2014, 3:52 AM
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Alberta will definitely overtake BC.

Alberta is a far, far younger population and BC has a lot of retirees. Many of the people moving to BC are retirees looking for warmer climates while the young are leaving looking for work and a place they can afford to live.
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  #118  
Old Posted May 21, 2014, 6:17 PM
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I just did a calculation of the theoretical metropolitan population of both Red Deer and Lethbridge.


Included in the Red Deer area are:
(populations are approximate)

The City of Red Deer: 97 000
The City of Lacombe: 13 000 (25 km from Red Deer City Hall)
The City of Sylvan Lake: 13 000 (25 km from Red Deer)
The Town of Innisfail: 8 000 (31 km from Red Deer)
The Town of Blackfalds: 8 000 (14 km from Red Deer)
The Town of Penhold: 2 500 (16 km from Red Deer)
The Town of Eckville: 1 200 (45 km from Red Deer)

Total population: 142 000

This number does not include the thousands of rural people in the region, and the thousands of people living in suburbs located just outside of the border of Red Deer city limits.





Included in the Lethbridge area are:
(populations are approximate)

The City of Lethbridge: 91 000
The Town of Coaldale: 8 000 (18 km from Lethbridge City Hall)
The Town of Fort Macleod: 3 200 (49 km from Lethbridge)
The Town of Magrath: 2 400 (37 km from Lethbridge)
The Town of Coalhurst: 2 300 (11 km from Lethbridge)
The Town of Picture Butte: 1 700 (29 km from Lethbridge)
The Village of Stirling: 1 100 (35 km from Lethbridge)
The Village of Nobleford: 1 000 (34 km from Lethbridge)
The Hamlet of Diamond City: 200 (16 km from Lethbridge)

Total population: 111 000
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  #119  
Old Posted May 21, 2014, 7:41 PM
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Would Fort MacLeod really be apart of a Lethbridge CMA? That seems a bit far out.
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  #120  
Old Posted May 21, 2014, 11:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
I just did a calculation of the theoretical metropolitan population of both Red Deer and Lethbridge.


Included in the Red Deer area are:
(populations are approximate)

The City of Red Deer: 97 000
The City of Lacombe: 13 000 (25 km from Red Deer City Hall)
The City of Sylvan Lake: 13 000 (25 km from Red Deer)
The Town of Innisfail: 8 000 (31 km from Red Deer)
The Town of Blackfalds: 8 000 (14 km from Red Deer)
The Town of Penhold: 2 500 (16 km from Red Deer)
The Town of Eckville: 1 200 (45 km from Red Deer)

Total population: 142 000

This number does not include the thousands of rural people in the region, and the thousands of people living in suburbs located just outside of the border of Red Deer city limits.





Included in the Lethbridge area are:
(populations are approximate)

The City of Lethbridge: 91 000
The Town of Coaldale: 8 000 (18 km from Lethbridge City Hall)
The Town of Fort Macleod: 3 200 (49 km from Lethbridge)
The Town of Magrath: 2 400 (37 km from Lethbridge)
The Town of Coalhurst: 2 300 (11 km from Lethbridge)
The Town of Picture Butte: 1 700 (29 km from Lethbridge)
The Village of Stirling: 1 100 (35 km from Lethbridge)
The Village of Nobleford: 1 000 (34 km from Lethbridge)
The Hamlet of Diamond City: 200 (16 km from Lethbridge)

Total population: 111 000
Having lived in the Lethbridge area in the past, never would anyone in Fort Macleod or Picture Butte or Magrath or Nobleford or Stirling or Coalhurst would consider themselves a metropolitan part of Lethbridge. Even Coaldale would be stretching it - that 6 miles of farmland between Coaldale and Lethbridge is going to take 50 years if not more to fill up with development.

So Lethbridge is 91,000 for all purposes - it's not a metropolitan area by any means and won't be for a long time. Same goes for Red Deer and even for Calgary where I would only consider Chestermere and Airdrie to maybe pe a part of Calgary's metropolitan area. Okotoks and Cochrane are still too far out. Edmonton, on the other hand, has a considerable metropolitan area what with many smaller cities/towns right on it's borders - something that Calgary doesn't have with possibly the exception of Chestermere. Even Airdrie's developed area is 6-7 miles from the nearest developed areas of Calgary.

Never the less, too many people get too hung up on metropolitan populations when it comes to many Canadian cities when there's only a few that probably should qualify as true metropolitan areas.
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