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  #361  
Old Posted Aug 1, 2018, 5:31 PM
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Originally Posted by ILUVSAT View Post
In fact, Austin's market will be larger than ours in 2040.
Not true at all. Will the gap be smaller, yes. Larger, no.
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  #362  
Old Posted Aug 1, 2018, 7:27 PM
JRG1974 JRG1974 is offline
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Originally Posted by sirkingwilliam View Post
Not true at all. Will the gap be smaller, yes. Larger, no.
I agree. Austin gets all the love when it comes to talk on growth. Thing is that San Antonio is having growth that would be the envy of most cities in this country.

If you look at this link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_areas

You can see that we are the 24th largest metro area in the country. By 2030, we should overtake Baltimore and St Louis, and we would be really close to overtaking Charlotte. That would make us the 21st market in the country, with little chance of other areas catching up. Taking the rate that Austin is closing the gap, they would not catch up until the year 2054. After 2050, it will be Austin and SA at 21 and 22 in metro size. Of course, no one has a crystal ball of the future, and things can always change. Especially since SA has actually decreased the rate that Austin is catching up when comparing the 1st decade to this second. It may end up taking Austin beyond 2060 to catch up.

But lets face it, the reality is that they are 2 markets with a lack of pro sports. In the end, they will probably be split between the two with San Antonio having football and basketball, and Austin having MLS, and Hockey. Baseball will be up in the air. Like the article mentioned, it will come down to the ownership group.
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  #363  
Old Posted Aug 11, 2018, 10:57 PM
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Not sure if any of you will care any more than I do, but there are rumors of "Real Housewives: San Antonio", although unconfirmed by Bravo.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/enterta...s-12973383.php

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  #364  
Old Posted Aug 11, 2018, 11:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Restless 1 View Post
Not sure if any of you will care any more than I do, but there are rumors of "Real Housewives: San Antonio", although unconfirmed by Bravo.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/enterta...s-12973383.php

Charles Barkley's gonna love it.
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  #365  
Old Posted Aug 11, 2018, 11:53 PM
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Originally Posted by JRG1974 View Post
I agree. Austin gets all the love when it comes to talk on growth. Thing is that San Antonio is having growth that would be the envy of most cities in this country.

If you look at this link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_areas

You can see that we are the 24th largest metro area in the country. By 2030, we should overtake Baltimore and St Louis, and we would be really close to overtaking Charlotte. That would make us the 21st market in the country, with little chance of other areas catching up. Taking the rate that Austin is closing the gap, they would not catch up until the year 2054. After 2050, it will be Austin and SA at 21 and 22 in metro size. Of course, no one has a crystal ball of the future, and things can always change. Especially since SA has actually decreased the rate that Austin is catching up when comparing the 1st decade to this second. It may end up taking Austin beyond 2060 to catch up.

Not so fast (or should I say it would be a wiser bet that you would be wrong). If one takes the growth of both cities between the 2010 census and the July 1, 2017 estimate (according to the Census Bureau), and extrapolate that same growth out from July 2, 2017 to July 1, 2050, Austin's metro will have over 1 million more people than SA's (~6.197 million to ~5.065 million respectively).

Of course, nobody can see the future.

Oh - never quote Wiki. Heck, anyone can go in there and change the numbers.
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  #366  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2018, 2:05 AM
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Originally Posted by ILUVSAT View Post
Not so fast (or should I say it would be a wiser bet that you would be wrong). If one takes the growth of both cities between the 2010 census and the July 1, 2017 estimate (according to the Census Bureau), and extrapolate that same growth out from July 2, 2017 to July 1, 2050, Austin's metro will have over 1 million more people than SA's (~6.197 million to ~5.065 million respectively).

Of course, nobody can see the future.

Oh - never quote Wiki. Heck, anyone can go in there and change the numbers.
It's probably not worth trying to determine which metro will be bigger than the other in my opinion. Both metros are, for all intents and purposes, similarly sized metropolitan areas, and will continue to be near the same size as each other (regardless of who leads in absolute numbers) for the foreseeable future. If the two metros ever do grow together, it will not be along Dallas-Fort Worth lines - They will be equally balanced population centers. At least at the beginning.
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  #367  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2018, 2:52 AM
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Originally Posted by ILUVSAT View Post
Not so fast (or should I say it would be a wiser bet that you would be wrong). If one takes the growth of both cities between the 2010 census and the July 1, 2017 estimate (according to the Census Bureau), and extrapolate that same growth out from July 2, 2017 to July 1, 2050, Austin's metro will have over 1 million more people than SA's (~6.197 million to ~5.065 million respectively).

Of course, nobody can see the future.

Oh - never quote Wiki. Heck, anyone can go in there and change the numbers.
I agree on both counts.

Never quote Wiki

Predicting 32 years into the future on absolutes, or based on past performance, is limited in it's usefulness. Hell, there might be a linear park from San Antonio to Dallas by then.

Safe to say both cities will grow, as well other cities elsewhere, and in between, and that growth better be planned for, both for the cities, and the region as a whole.
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  #368  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2018, 2:56 AM
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Charles Barkley's gonna love it.
Yup, Sir Charles, the King of self awareness.
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  #369  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2018, 3:08 PM
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Originally Posted by ILUVSAT View Post
Not so fast (or should I say it would be a wiser bet that you would be wrong). If one takes the growth of both cities between the 2010 census and the July 1, 2017 estimate (according to the Census Bureau), and extrapolate that same growth out from July 2, 2017 to July 1, 2050, Austin's metro will have over 1 million more people than SA's (~6.197 million to ~5.065 million respectively).

Of course, nobody can see the future.

Oh - never quote Wiki. Heck, anyone can go in there and change the numbers.
I was quoting the table in wiki that is based on the table from the census bureau. This is not really an opinion piece that someone entered.Here is where the numbers came from (US Census Bureau Factfinder Site).

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...xhtml?src=bkmk
Hope this helps clarify things.

It shows that Austin is catching San Antonio by about 10k people a year. The same numbers were showing 12k from 2000 to 2010. My point is that San Antonio is growing rapidly as well, but people only seem to see Austin as growing. The metro areas are 360k apart. Not sure about how you extrapolated you data, but I would see it taking 30+ years for Austin just to break even. Again this is about San Antonio having explosive growth as well. San Antonio may even shrink the rate that Austin is catching up by even more.

Can you send me the sites you were getting you information from?

Even taking your higher numbers into account, maybe we are 19 -20 instead of 20-21 (surpassing Detroit). In the end, my main point was that both cities will be about the same size and will mostlikey split teams. The area will be large enough to support a full compliment of pro sports. I can't wait to see how it all plays out.

As far as my numbers being wrong, I would agree. Mainly because there are no numbers that can predict the future. I would say that you are wrong as well based on how I calculated my numbers, only time will say who is right. Either way there is no prize fr the winner.
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  #370  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2018, 5:25 PM
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Yup, Sir Charles, the King of self awareness.
(like button)
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  #371  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2018, 11:40 PM
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Paul in S.A TX Paul in S.A TX is offline
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Originally Posted by JRG1974 View Post
I agree. Austin gets all the love when it comes to talk on growth. Thing is that San Antonio is having growth that would be the envy of most cities in this country.

If you look at this link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_areas

You can see that we are the 24th largest metro area in the country. By 2030, we should overtake Baltimore and St Louis, and we would be really close to overtaking Charlotte. That would make us the 21st market in the country, with little chance of other areas catching up. Taking the rate that Austin is closing the gap, they would not catch up until the year 2054. After 2050, it will be Austin and SA at 21 and 22 in metro size. Of course, no one has a crystal ball of the future, and things can always change. Especially since SA has actually decreased the rate that Austin is catching up when comparing the 1st decade to this second. It may end up taking Austin beyond 2060 to catch up.

But lets face it, the reality is that they are 2 markets with a lack of pro sports. In the end, they will probably be split between the two with San Antonio having football and basketball, and Austin having MLS, and Hockey. Baseball will be up in the air. Like the article mentioned, it will come down to the ownership group.
Even if the Austin metro ever reaches or surpasses the San Antonio metro population wise, I doubt Travis county can ever surpass Bexar County in population. It is 1.2 million versus about 2.0 million. This shows that San Antonio is much larger the first 500 to 1,000 square miles by nearly 800,000 people. The Austin urbanized area, however, does gain some ground on San Antonio's U.A. once you go beyond the core county, but it is of a lower density type. I am aware that the discussion is about the whole metro population and not just the core county, but all this talk about Austin being almost as big as S.A., It is not. Travis county would have to insert a city the size of Indianapolis around the city limits of Austin for it to be comparable to San Antonio, at least at a population standpoint.
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2018 S. A. Pop.1.51 million
metro 2.5 million/REGION 4.7million
San Antonio economy and largest economic sectors. Annual contribution towards GDP.
U.S. Dept of Defense $48.5 billion/Manufacturing $40.5 billion/Healthcare-Biosciences $40 billion/Finance-Insurance $20 billion/Tourism $15 billion/ Technology $10 billion.

Last edited by Paul in S.A TX; Aug 13, 2018 at 9:00 PM. Reason: Addition to paragraph
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  #372  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2018, 3:35 PM
Rynetwo Rynetwo is offline
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Originally Posted by ILUVSAT View Post
Not so fast (or should I say it would be a wiser bet that you would be wrong). If one takes the growth of both cities between the 2010 census and the July 1, 2017 estimate (according to the Census Bureau), and extrapolate that same growth out from July 2, 2017 to July 1, 2050, Austin's metro will have over 1 million more people than SA's (~6.197 million to ~5.065 million respectively).

Of course, nobody can see the future.

Oh - never quote Wiki. Heck, anyone can go in there and change the numbers.
I'm confused.

Austin grew 433,489 from 2010 to 2017.
San Antonio grew by 368,302 from 2010 to 2017.

With those numbers Austin will outgrow San Antonio by 297,904 which means the metros would be the same size in 2050.
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  #373  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2018, 9:26 PM
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SA 2017 pop. 1.5 mil, pop. increase, 24,208
Austin 2017 pop. 950,715, pop. Increase, 12,515

This is from just 2016 to 2017. So 5 years ago Austin was growing faster. Last year, SA was
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  #374  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2018, 9:34 PM
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Also over the next few years I heard SA may be annexing up to 66 miles around the city, gaining around 200,000 more people. Passing Phoenix & Philadelphia in population.
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  #375  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2018, 10:57 PM
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Originally Posted by UltraDanPrime View Post
SA 2017 pop. 1.5 mil, pop. increase, 24,208
Austin 2017 pop. 950,715, pop. Increase, 12,515

This is from just 2016 to 2017. So 5 years ago Austin was growing faster. Last year, SA was
The rates of growth for both cities could change wildly, while most predictions depend on little to no change for both.

Too many variables to expect accurate predictions of 30 years from now.
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  #376  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2018, 11:23 PM
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You got that right! I actually think this is kind of a pointless conversation, I just wanted to add that for some reason.
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  #377  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 1:28 AM
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You got that right! I actually think this is kind of a pointless conversation, I just wanted to add that for some reason.
I guess, better a pointless conversation than a dead thread. I think your post did illustrate that rates of change are variable, and hard to predict. Even trends can deviate wildly for any number of reasons.
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  #378  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 2:54 AM
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Ahhh... but a different topic would be better than a bad topic & a dead thread.

Food for thought...hmmmmmmm!
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  #379  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 12:34 PM
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Ahhh... but a different topic would be better than a bad topic & a dead thread.

Food for thought...hmmmmmmm!
Hey, I tried in post #357 to change the subject, but hard heads make soft backsides.
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  #380  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2018, 1:43 PM
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ūüĎć
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