Politics in Manitoba

[Only The Lonely..]

The new face of the Tories? Maybe
Mon Feb 4 2008

Dan Lett | Winnipeg Free Press

THERE is a well-worn theory circulating among Manitoba Progressive Conservatives suggesting the real reason they can't knock off the NDP is that too many Tories moved to Alberta.

Could it actually be possible that of the thousands of Manitobans who fled to the black-gold province, the gross majority were Tories? In an electoral battleground where a few hundred votes here or there could change the outcome profoundly, it's fascinating just to consider the possibilities.

In the context of that theory, the hiring of Doug Schweitzer as the new chief executive officer of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party is an intriguing development.

A graduate of the University of Manitoba law school, Schweitzer fled to Calgary to find his fortune. Now, the 29-year-old is returning to Manitoba to take a full-time gig with a party that has been "first runner-up" in the last three elections.

Schweitzer is being touted as the new face of the Tory party and, in many ways, he is that. Young and professional, he is the kind of guy you want fronting a party desperately in need of a makeover.

A cynic might point out at this point that Schweitzer was not the party's first choice. McFadyen tried to lure loyalist Brent Olynyk away from the City of Winnipeg. But after announcing the hire, the Tories were thwarted by a very late and considerably sweeter offer from the city that Olynyk couldn't refuse.

The loss of Olynyk and the hiring of Schweitzer demonstrate the challenge that many conservative parties face.

A former provincial Tory candidate, Olynyk is a career public servant, a senior city manager and vice-president of the Winnipeg Association of Public Officers. He is, in many ways, very similar to the career bureaucrats and lifelong political operatives that form Premier Gary Doer's much-celebrated inner circle.

Schweitzer, on the other hand, is more typical of the pit-stop professionals found in conservative back offices. Although he has a healthy dose of front-line political experience, and is reputed to be a keen intellect, most of his professional life is still ahead of him and there are no guarantees he's in it for the long haul.

And there is the rub. Conservative parties attract just as many smart people as any party. But it seems Liberal and NDP parties are better stocked with people who make politics a career. Like the "all-the-Tories-moved-to-Alberta" theory, there is no empirical proof of this.

Why is it different for Tories? A prominent Progressive Conservative supporter suggested that given their ideological bent, many of the best conservative minds are simply reluctant to forgo the private sector's bigger paycheques to pursue political power.

In Manitoba, one of former Tory leader Stuart Murray's biggest problems -- and he had a few -- was a lack of quality political staff. Unfortunately for Murray, after former premier Gary Filmon left politics following the 1999 election, most of his key people left as well. Murray had to rebuild a team from thinned ranks short on experience.

In contrast, McFadyen hired former Filmon wunderkind Jonathan Scarth, a signal the new leader wasn't about to fall into the same trap that claimed Murray.

Tories like to disparage the lifers who toil for the NDP, suggesting they remain in politics because they "couldn't make it in the private sector." And that may be true, but when it comes to succeeding at politics there is no substitute for experience and prior success.

The fact is, no party succeeds if its best people approach politics as a high-risk, career-boosting stop on the way to greater fortune in the private sector. Every leader deserves to be surrounded by people who find enough honour and nobility in politics to view it as a career.

Perhaps Schweitzer came back to Manitoba on a mission to save us from the NDP. Or, perhaps he realized that Calgary is an impossible, uninteresting place in large part because it has no extremely long skating rinks to boast about.

The more important question is, how long will Schweitzer stick with McFadyen? The "new face" of the party is little more than lipstick and rouge if it isn't around for the long haul.


dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

[Only The Lonely..]

Is the doctor in?
Liberal party insiders wonder if it's time for Gerrard to hit the road
Mon Feb 4 2008

By Mary Agnes Welch | Winnipeg Free Press

ONE decade after Jon Gerrard became the leader of the Manitoba Liberals, some party members are beginning to quietly muse about replacing him.

Others, including former leader Paul Edwards, say Gerrard's profile and his reputation as a smart and honourable man are too valuable to throw away.

Gerrard faces an automatic leadership review in early April at the party's annual general meeting in Winnipeg. That will be the Grits' first gathering since last spring's provincial election that saw the Liberals pick up no new seats and their share of the popular vote slip again. And it could see an internal party discussion that has so far been just a polite whisper get much louder.


Some party insiders say they face two problems, the lack of an obvious successor and a deep desire not to embarrass Gerrard or strong-arm him into stepping down.

"He's such a nice man. I've got so much respect for him," said one party source. "But when you look at the leadership question objectively, it's very hard to say anything but no."

Gerrard's possible successors include Paul Hesse, the young lawyer who ran a strong provincial campaign in Fort Rouge, and St. Vital Coun. Gord Steeves, though he is widely believed to be more interested in a run for mayor or for federal parliament.

But party insiders, even those who are open to a leadership change, are quick to say there is no overt move by any would-be challengers to unseat Gerrard.

Talk of Gerrard's future as leader first surfaced after the May election, when the Grits failed to win more seats despite a campaign that was strong on policy and short on flubs. Party sources say the talk has quietly resurfaced in recent weeks, as Gerrard has begun to meet with Liberals to gauge support and begin work on a four-year plan to revamp the party's constituency organizations and its fundraising process.

The party's share of the popular vote has hovered around 12 or 13 per cent under Gerrard's tenure, and it has slipped slightly every election since 1999.

In May, the Grits walked away with the same two seats they've held for years, Gerrard's River Heights stronghold and MLA Kevin Lamoureux's riding of Inkster. The party came a distant third in 47 ridings and was only competitive in two, Fort Rouge and Minto.

Gerrard acknowledged his own frustration with the party's inability to win more seats, and he said he's willing to look at "anything and everything" that might improve his party's fortunes. But he said he wants to remain in the leader's chair.

"I am committed to staying on if the people in the party decide they want me to," said Gerrard. "Experience counts for quite a bit."

Paul Edwards, the party's leader in the mid-1990s, said he's heard no real rumblings of discontent within the party, and said he wouldn't support any move to nudge Gerrard into retirement.



Gord Steeves
"I think the majority of the party supports him," said Edwards. "He's very, very active. He has an amazingly high profile, given our resources."

Edwards noted, as many opposition politicos do, that it took Premier Gary Doer four tries to get elected to the province's top job.

And the next election could be the Liberal party's chance to surge ahead, especially if voters grow weary of the NDP after a dozen years in office and Tory Leader Hugh McFadyen fails to catch fire with voters.

Another party source said he can't understand why the party has made so little progress over the last decade, especially with a decent platform and a well-respected leader.

"It behooves me to wonder why," he said. "The question is, given his capabilities, why Jon Gerrard would continue to endure it?"


maryagnes.welch@freepress.mb.ca




Paul Hesse
The Jon Gerrard file


* Medical doctor, head of pediatric cancer unit at Children's Hospital and a professor at the University of Manitoba's medical school.

* MP for Portage-Interlake in the mid-1990s.

* Elected provincial Liberal leader in 1998.

* Authored several books on the bald eagle.

* Stopped on the TransCanada Highway to help rescue a car crash victim while driving to a campaign stop in Brandon. The victim did not survive.


Grits at the polls


1999 ELECTION


* Fielded only 50 of 57 candidates

* Won 13.4% of the vote

* Reduced from two seats to one


2003 ELECTION


* Fielded candidates in all 57 ridings

* Won 13.1 per cent of the vote

* Won two seats.


2007 ELECTION


* Fielded candidates in all 57 ridings

* Won 12.3 per cent of the vote

* Kept two seats.

[Spocket]

At this point I'd vote for Gerard (did last time) and that's about it. Doer's likable but naturally I can't stand his party. The Conservatives are my usual choice but their leadership is ...how can I say this ?....'untested'.