City demographic stats that don't jive with outsiders' perceptions

[Steely Dan]

in a recent thread where black flight was being discussed, chicago's southside was painted with a very broad brush as little more than a big monolithic black ghetto that is going to entirely implode.

the problem with that is the fact that the southside is GIANT. at 118 sq. miles, it's larger in land area than the other two sides of chicago combined, and is home to all kinds of different neighborhoods that are going through various stages of neighborhood life cycle - decay, stability, and rebirth.

but what's perhaps even more interesting to those not familiar with the southside of chicago is that it's not even all that black. as of 2015 (the most recent neighborhood level estimates i could find) the southside was home to 1,041,720 people, 553,605 of whom were black, or 53.1%. and with black flight still at crisis levels in chicago, that percentage might have even fallen below the 50% mark by now.

my guess is that the "southside of chicago" is a lot more black in the mind of the average joe than it is reality.



what demographic stats about your city might go against the grain of generally held but misguided perceptions?

[Crawford]

Boston is perceived as not very black, but the % black is higher than NYC. Granted, this is city-proper only, by metro NYC has a higher % than Boston.

The West Coast is thought of as the Chinese mecca, but there are more Chinese in NYC metro than anywhere on the planet outside of Asia. NYC, overall, is more Asian than popularly perceived, and less Italian and African American than popularly perceived. Everyone knows about Flushing, but South Brooklyn, in particular, is becoming Asian plurality (or majority?) outside of the Jewish enclaves.

Also, the NYC Jewish population is misunderstood. Yes, NYC is very Jewish, but there are almost no major Conservative or Reform populations left outside of the gentrified precincts. NYC Jews are very Orthodox these days. If you're looking for "traditional delis" and Fran Drescher-types, they're in Boca Raton. Jewish NY is more falafel than pastrami these days.

[Gantz]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The West Coast is thought of as the Chinese mecca, but there are more Chinese in NYC metro than anywhere on the planet outside of Asia. NYC, overall, is more Asian than popularly perceived, and less Italian and African American than popularly perceived. Everyone knows about Flushing, but South Brooklyn, in particular, is becoming Asian plurality (or majority?) outside of the Jewish enclaves.

I would also add that Chinese in south Brooklyn are undercounted even if you look at the numbers, and even if they show the area is majority Chinese. A lot of them live in illegal basement apartments, or in illegal subdivisions, so I suspect they don't answer any official censuses or surveys. On the other hand, Italian-Americans are overcounted.
I'd be interested to look at my block on the 2020 census. There is only one Italian-American family left on the block, and I think on the last census it was still majority white. Now its a mix of Chinese, Jews, and Hispanics.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Gantz

I would also add that Chinese in south Brooklyn are undercounted even if you look at the numbers, and even if they show the area is majority Chinese. A lot of them live in illegal basement apartments, so I suspect they don't answer any official censuses or surveys. On the other hand, Italian-Americans are overcounted.

Well, yeah. I mean, anyone who has taken the N or D train recently knows the demographic changes in South Brooklyn. Of course there are still Italians, but the trains appear to be 80% Chinese folks.

Have you seen 18th Ave. or 86th Street lately? There are 10 Chinese businesses for every Italian one. A high proportion of the Italians are elderly.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Crawford

South Brooklyn, in particular, is becoming Asian plurality (or majority?) outside of the Jewish enclaves.

Bay Ridge seems to be holding up as a majority white neighborhood as well, except at its northern fringe.

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

that's one of the biggest differences between predominately latino hoods and predominately black ones. latino areas have way better and way more intact commercial streets. this is what makes a handful of them (avondale, logan, humboldt, pilsen) so enticing to gentrifiers. those mostly intact, active retail streets make a neighborhood billions of times more appealing than the often dilapidated or out-right bombed-out retail streets in many of the city's black neighborhoods.

I'm not surprised with the other three, but is Humboldt Park really gentrifying? I also thought it was about a 50/50 Black/Latino split. Unless you're counting areas east of the park, which I always thought was West Town.

[Steely Dan]

Uu

Originally Posted by eschaton

Unless you're counting areas east of the park, which I always thought was West Town.

Yeah, I'm talking about division east of the park, which isn't technically in the Humboldt CA, but is historically Puerto Rican enough that I lump it into it. Sorry for the confusion.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I'm not surprised with the other three, but is Humboldt Park really gentrifying? I also thought it was about a 50/50 Black/Latino split. Unless you're counting areas east of the park, which I always thought was West Town.

Humboldt Park is slowly gentrifying. Not overnight the way Logan Square did, but probably I’d say more slowly and steadily like Pilsen.

It’s biggest disadvantage is lack of rail access

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Bay Ridge seems to be holding up as a majority white neighborhood as well, except at its northern fringe.

True, but Bay Ridge now has a huge Middle Eastern population, which Census counts as "white". There has definitely been ethnic transition from Italian-Irish-Norwegian to Middle Eastern.

Also, even though Bay Ridge is far from Manhattan, it has always had a professional class and some upscale corners, and those areas are now attracting the white gentrifying crowd looking for more living space for the money.

5th Avenue from about 65th to 85th streets is sometimes called Little Egypt. It isn't all ME, but they're probably the majority in that corridor. 3rd Avenue is very different, more upscale and more traditional white ethnic/gentrifiers. There's also an upscale, super-tight Greek mini-enclave, with giant mansions and Greek schools/churches/community centers near 3rd. Also many Russians/Ukranians in big apartment buildings in the southern end (Fort Hamilton area).

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Crawford

True, but Bay Ridge now has a huge Middle Eastern population, which Census counts as "white". There has definitely been ethnic transition from Italian-Irish-Norwegian to Middle Eastern.

Also, even though Bay Ridge is far from Manhattan, it has always had a professional class and some upscale corners, and those areas are now attracting the white gentrifying crowd looking for more living space for the money.

5th Avenue from about 65th to 85th streets is sometimes called Little Egypt. It isn't all ME, but they're probably the majority in that corridor. 3rd Avenue is very different, more upscale and more traditional white ethnic/gentrifiers. There's also an upscale, super-tight Greek mini-enclave, with giant mansions and Greek schools/churches/community centers near 3rd. Also many Russians/Ukranians in big apartment buildings in the southern end (Fort Hamilton area).

Yeah, I knew there was a "gentrifier set" in Bay Ridge these days. I have to say I wonder if Sunset Park will be tenable as a Latino neighborhood in the longer run, between gentrifiers on either side of it on the R and the Chinese community a few blocks inland.

I know Brighton Beach is a lot of Russophone emigres these days (many Jewish, but secular) but who lives in Sea Gate, Manhattan Beach, Gerrittsen Beach, Marine Park, Mill Basin, Bergen Beach, etc?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Yeah, I knew there was a "gentrifier set" in Bay Ridge these days. I have to say I wonder if Sunset Park will be tenable as a Latino neighborhood in the longer run, between gentrifiers on either side of it on the R and the Chinese community a few blocks inland.

I know Brighton Beach is a lot of Russophone emigres these days (many Jewish, but secular) but who lives in Sea Gate, Manhattan Beach, Gerrittsen Beach, Marine Park, Mill Basin, Bergen Beach, etc?

Sea Gate and Manhattan Beach are former Soviet.

Gerritson Beach is still old-school white ethnic Irish-Italian. It's like 1980 there.

Marine Park, Mill Basin and Bergen Beach still have plenty of white ethnics, but are fast becoming majority Orthodox Jewish. That's where young Orthodox families generally buy.

[yaletown_fella]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Boston is perceived as not very black, but the % black is higher than NYC. Granted, this is city-proper only, by metro NYC has a higher % than Boston.

The West Coast is thought of as the Chinese mecca, but there are more Chinese in NYC metro than anywhere on the planet outside of Asia. NYC, overall, is more Asian than popularly perceived, and less Italian and African American than popularly perceived. Everyone knows about Flushing, but South Brooklyn, in particular, is becoming Asian plurality (or majority?) outside of the Jewish enclaves.

Also, the NYC Jewish population is misunderstood. Yes, NYC is very Jewish, but there are almost no major Conservative or Reform populations left outside of the gentrified precincts. NYC Jews are very Orthodox these days. If you're looking for "traditional delis" and Fran Drescher-types, they're in Boca Raton. Jewish NY is more falafel than pastrami these days.

As far as I know, currently, some upscale Long Island and CT suburbs/exurbs have a higher % of secular jews than NYC.

Sort of like how Oak Ridge, Maple, Thornhill are more jewish than Toronto nowadays.

On a percentage-of-the-total-population wise, Vancouver is still the most Chinese major city in North America.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

As far as I know, currently, some upscale Long Island and CT suburbs/exurbs have a higher % of secular jews than NYC.

The thing is, over half of secular Jews outmarry these days, meaning the entire idea of a "secular Jewish" ethnicity is going to basically cease to exist in another two generations or so.

[MonkeyRonin]

I find that minority enclaves in general tend to be exaggerated. As a local example, the GTA suburbs of Brampton and Markham are usually thought of as being overwhelmingly Indian and Chinese, respectively.

In reality though, Brampton is 44% South Asian and Markham 45% Chinese. They're the dominant groups to be sure, but still a long way from singularly defining the demographics. In contrast, Toronto is 48% white but is certainly not thought of as being a "white city".

Anything that deviates from the norm is just more likely to be noticed and whatever characteristic that is most exceptional is what people are going to run with.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

I find that minority enclaves in general tend to be exaggerated. As a local example, the GTA suburbs of Brampton and Markham are usually thought of as being overwhelmingly Indian and Chinese, respectively.

In reality though, Brampton is 44% South Asian and Markham 45% Chinese. They're the dominant groups to be sure, but still a long way from singularly defining the demographics. In contrast, Toronto is 48% white but is certainly not thought of as being a "white city".

Anything that deviates from the norm is just more likely to be noticed and whatever characteristic that is most exceptional is what people are going to run with.

Well, 44% Asian/Indian is huge, though, for any city in the western world.

Also bearing in mind just how quickly Toronto changed in the past 30-40 years from being a predominantly white city to one that is so heavily dominated by immigrants from abroad.

[Capsicum]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Also bearing in mind just how quickly Toronto changed in the past 30-40 years from being a predominantly white city to one that is so heavily dominated by immigrants from abroad.

White doesn't mean non-immigrant nor does non-white imply immigrant though.

30-40 years ago, Toronto had a high foreign born population too (though not as high as today) including Italians, other continental Europeans and still even a sizeable proportion of British (British continued to immigrate to Canada in large numbers up until even the 60s, unlike most US cities, which didn't get much British immigration to big cities after colonial times).

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

White doesn't mean non-immigrant nor does non-white imply immigrant though.

30-40 years ago, Toronto had a high foreign born population too (though not as high as today) including Italians, other continental Europeans and still even a sizeable proportion of British (British continued to immigrate to Canada in large numbers up until even the 60s, unlike most US cities, which didn't get much British immigration to big cities after colonial times).

^ Ahhh okay, I stand corrected.

[memph]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

I find that minority enclaves in general tend to be exaggerated. As a local example, the GTA suburbs of Brampton and Markham are usually thought of as being overwhelmingly Indian and Chinese, respectively.

In reality though, Brampton is 44% South Asian and Markham 45% Chinese. They're the dominant groups to be sure, but still a long way from singularly defining the demographics. In contrast, Toronto is 48% white but is certainly not thought of as being a "white city".

Anything that deviates from the norm is just more likely to be noticed and whatever characteristic that is most exceptional is what people are going to run with.

Brampton and Markham are far from uniform though. They still have their older neighbourhoods built prior to large scale Asian immigration, and those neighbourhoods still have large white populations. Peel Village in Brampton is about 85% white, Heart Lake and Old Brampton are around 70%, Markham Village and Thornhill Village also around 70% white.

But when someone is looking to buy a house, the majority of homes available will be in new neighbourhoods, since the old areas have fairly low turnover. That low turnover keeps relocating white Canadians from moving into those areas just the same as Asian immigrants. And the new subdivisions are mostly 5-20% white, sometimes even less, only a few new urbanist type communities have more whites, so I don't think it's too surprising that they're perceived that way.

Ex

Census tract 5350576.59 (Egypt Dr. area, Brampton)

South Asian: 70.2%
Blacks: 12.2%
Whites: 3.2%
Other: 14.4%

Census tract 5350576.60 (Sir Issac Brook Public School area, Brampton)

South Asian: 74.0%
Blacks: 10.0%
Whites: 3.8%
Other: 12.2%

Census tract 5350403.09 (William Berczy & Castlemore, Markham)

Chinese: 81.3%
South Asian: 9.3%
White: 3.8%
Other: 5.6%

Census tract 5350401.20 (Ingram Dr., Markham, not as new as the other three)

Chinese: 61.3%
South Asian: 22.7%
White: 2.3%
Other: 13.7%

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

in a recent thread where black flight was being discussed, chicago's southside was being painted with a very broad brush as little more than a giant monolithic black ghetto that is going to entirely implode.

the problem with that is the southside is GIANT. at 118 sq. miles, it's larger in land area than the the other two sides of chicago combined, and is home to all kinds of different neighborhoods that are going through various stages of neighborhood life cycle - decay, stability, and rebirth.

but what's perhaps even more interesting to those not familiar with the southside of chicago is that it's not even all that black. as of 2015 (the most recent neighborhood level estimates i could find) the southside was home to 1,041,720 people, 553,605 of whom were black, or 53.1%. and with black flight still at crisis levels in chicago, that percentage might have even fallen below the 50% mark by now.

my guess is that the "southside of chicago" is a lot more black in the mind of the average joe than it is reality.



what demographic stats about your city might go against the grain of generally held but misguided perceptions?

For Chicago, the fact that it's so heavily Hispanic is also not well known outside of urbanist circles. People still view it as a Polish/Italian sausage and Blues kind of city, not really the city of tamales. And its large Puerto Rican population goes unrecognized.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

For Chicago, the fact that it's so heavily Hispanic is also not well known outside of urbanist circles. People still view it as a Polish/Italian sausage and Blues kind of city, not really the city of tamales. And its large Puerto Rican population goes unrecognized.

very true. across the board, chicago is less black and more latino than most outsiders realize. latinos now outnumber blacks in the city.

and that dovetails into another common chicago misconception: the west side is also nothing but a bombed-out black ghetto.

the truth (as of 2015): the west side is home to 482,761 people, 205,025 of whom are black, or 42.5%, roughly the same percentage as the city of milwaukee as a whole.




that said, now i want some tamales for lunch, but i brown-bagged it today (leftover pasta fagioli).

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

very true. across the board, chicago is less black and more latino than most outsiders realize. latinos now outnumber blacks in the city.

and that dovetails into another common chicago misconception: the west side is also nothing but a bombed-out black ghetto.

the truth (as of 2015): the west side is home to 482,761 people, 205,025 of whom are black, or 42.5%, roughly the same percentage as the city of milwaukee as a whole.




that said, now i want some tamales for lunch, but i brown-bagged it today (leftover pasta fagioli).

Very interesting thread!

How are Hispanic neighborhoods doing in Chicago btw? Are they poor, middle-class, upper-class and how is the crime situation in predominately Hispanic areas?