Spirits are as buoyant as housing sales in Saskatchewan's largest city, as expats tired of the hustle and hassle of Alberta's hot economy are heading home
Alan Kellogg, The Edmonton Journal
Published: July 15, 2007 2:22 am
Hans Van Norren and Jenny Craddock moved to Edmonton from Saskatoon nine years ago.
Now they're back.
For the first time in decades, more people are leaving Alberta for Saskatchewan than the reverse. The figures are modest in the extreme: a net Saskatchewan gain of 800 souls over the last two reporting quarters of 2006. It might not last. But then, simply stemming the diaspora represents a seismic shift in itself, to mix a metaphor prairie-style.
It wasn't so long ago that the so-called smart money was on Saskatchewan virtually drying up and blowing away like so much chaff. The top provincial leadership looked at the trends and the road ahead seemed grim. Most commodity prices -- from grain to potash to uranium -- were down. Like disappearing Wheat Pool elevators, the family farm was becoming a relic of the past, as towns and hamlets withered.
The future seemed to belong to major urban centres and the province didn't really have one. In fact, the dirty little not-so-secret secret imagined the province's two medium-size cities seething with violence and racial tension, given projections of a majority aboriginal (read: young, uneducated, frustrated) population.
Then there was the mixed blessing of sharing a long border with Alberta, one of the hottest economic engines on the planet. Needless to say, the exodus west already long in progress only accelerated, as Saskatchewan citizens of all walks sought opportunities in the oilfields, classrooms, plants and office towers in their neighbouring backyard. And unlike emigres from Newfoundland or the Philippines, the action was right next door -- only a day's drive back home for Christmas, summer holidays and family reunions.
It would be reckless to pronounce Saskatchewan's current upturn in fortunes as profound and guaranteed sustainable. Most of the weaknesses that existed during the worst times are still lurking behind the current curtain of relative prosperity. Scratch the surface on the employment front, for example, and the top-rank jobs now and likely in the future are highly prescribed.
But it would also be foolish to underestimate the proportions of the turnaround. Statistics are one thing. But as an old Saskatoon hand who returns often, I can safely report there has been a dramatic shift in mood, even among the crustiest local observers.
Things, as they like to say, are looking up for a change, and that feels good to townies. It's been a while.
No one can deny the rise in real estate prices.
Saskatoon ReMax broker Trent Lipka -- 11 years in the biz -- says he tries to avoid the "B" word. He sells all kinds -- farm and ranch, residential, commercial, recreational, you name it. It's all rising. "You hesitate to say it, but I don't know what else to call what is happening than a boom, definitely a boom.
"If it continues at this pace, I'll double my volume this year compared to last. As of June 30, I sold more than in all of 2006."
If diversified, Lipka's biggest area of activity remains in single-family homes. Like many of his competitors, he advertises in The Journal and other Alberta newspapers looking for investors. He says he's finding some, especially for smaller apartment blocks. And he is well aware of the local buzz that Alberta speculators are driving up the prices.
"But at least for me, the majority of people from Alberta buying are Saskatchewan people cashing in and moving back home. They're tired of the 45-minute commutes, the hassles. They've got huge equity, and can still find a comparable house here for much less than in Edmonton or Calgary.
"You guys are well over $400,000 for an average single-family home. We're up, but at $235,000."
As to whys and wherefores, Lipka cites the same factors as everyone else you ask. Commodity prices are up, oil and gas and mining continue to move, and job prospects are improving via facilities such as the University of Saskatchewan's Canadian Light Source synchrotron, a football-field-size research tool that uses extremely bright light to peer inside atoms and molecules.
The synchrotron -- a rare magnet for diverse clients in other countries -- is Canada's biggest scientific research project in 30 years. Business is apparently good. You can watch what's going on there online in real time.
On the other hand, Lipka reckons a degree of natural economic law is at hand.
"It happened to you in Edmonton. I believe a lot of this is just a market correction. There was this pent-up demand that finally popped. When you look at the disparity between us and other cities in Canada, where not much is really going on, I think you can conclude that we haven't hit the ceiling yet."
Not surprisingly, Saskatchewan Finance Minister Pat Atkinson would like to remind voters that her NDP government -- far down in the polls of late after nearly 16 years in power -- has had something to do with the good news. Fourteen consecutive balanced budgets have been served up, along with 16 credit rating upgrades.
"In 2001, Premier Lorne Calvert declared that there could be no further social progress without economic progress. So we set about to encourage that, by lowering the provincial income tax, implementing a change in the heavy oil royalty structure, investing in research and development and post-secondary education, adjusting mining taxes, lowering the provincial sales tax. If you go all the way back to 1991, we had to begin by erasing deficits and working on the debt.
"The opposition likes to say we have no plan, but anyone can see we're reaping the results of sound planning."
That said, the total provincial debt (including Crown corporations) remains formidable, projected by the government to stand at $11.2 billion by March 2008.
All the more reason, says Atkinson, "for the federal government to honour its commitment (to not cap resource royalties), treating us the same as Alberta was once treated. As we recently told (federal Finance Minister) Jim Flaherty, Saskatchewan wants to pay its way, to continue being a "have" province. We're only asking for fairness.
"The challenge now for us is to address the labour shortage, to reinvest in infrastructure, to significantly invest in affordable housing. The boom is partly speculation, but it's real, too. And we have a big template next door teaching, in many ways, how not to handle it."
Kerry Westcott of the United Brotherhood of Carpenters regional council has no doubt the local economy is genuinely hot.
"In this field, you know instantly when that's happening at negotiations time. Only three years ago, the (contractors association) was offering us a three-year contract of zero, one and one per cent. This time, it's six, six and six per cent. And we got it in about an hour. That speaks volumes."
There aren't many downsides, he figures, "although we have gone from a low-wage, low-cost economy to a situation where costs are rising and wages will be chasing that. It's going to be tough on people waiting to afford to buy a house. They may be waiting a long time."
Shuyler Jansen and his family moved to Saskatoon from Edmonton two years ago. They liked Edmonton, but there were welcoming Saskatchewan familial connections for his wife, Angie Hogan, and Alberta housing prices were already too expensive for the young family.
"We lived around Argyll and 109th (Street) and it would have cost around $250,000 to buy something before we left. Now it would be like, $500,000. We got in here just at the right time. We're in a nice Saskatoon neighbourhood and it cost us under $200,000.
"It's true that we could have found something affordable at the time around (Rexall Place). But we've got three kids and didn't want to be trailblazers."
As to work opportunities, he reports that has also worked out. A lab tech at the University of Alberta, Angie has found a sales position at a scientific supply company in Saskatoon. As for Jansen, for years a staple with the band Old Reliable, his solo musical career continues apace. A new CD is forthcoming, and he's now working with Deep Dark Woods, his Saskatoon-based backup band.
"It's a slower pace here, more old-fashioned. And we like that. It also seems a bit like a new era, less competitive. And there are a lot of younger people around, who are staying or have come back."
As to what he misses about the old hometown, it's a familiar refrain.
"The food! The availability of different cultures so close at hand, which is so great about Edmonton. Of course you also miss friends and neighbours, the festivals, the town itself."
Van Norren, who worked for an Edmonton software firm, and Craddock, a contract teacher at NorQuest College, packed up and left on spec. They also have family connections in Saskatoon, evidenced in a favourable, if limited, lease on a small fixer-upper on a pleasant street not far from the city's lively Broadway district. With the old folks getting older, being close to parents was a major issue.
"Alberta wasn't the land of opportunity for me," says Craddock, surveying the roaring traffic on Saskatoon's Idylwyld freeway from her new-found, funky porch. "In an oil boom, who needs an education? Edmonton has got too big, too dirty, too busy, too stupid and too long a commute."
She admits she'll miss the food, the diversity -- and friends -- too. And she doesn't yet have a job.
Van Norren, Dutch by birth, is more measured. For one thing, it seems as if he's walked from one boomtown to another.
"Saskatoon wasn't my first choice. And we may not stay here, although this interim move makes sense. Our (Strathcona) landlady was decent. But our $850-a-month apartment will rise to $1,500 this month for the new tenant.
"Nothing against Edmonton, really. We'll miss things. But we used to love walking along Whyte Avenue. Now it's turning into a greasy strip. And my degree doesn't count for much in a place that needs engineers."
The same, he reasons, might hold true in Saskatoon.
No one who knows Guy Vanderhaeghe would pin the Esterhazy-born, Saskatoon-based novelist as a chamber of commerce type. Something's happening alright, he agrees, but we've seen it before.
"In Saskatchewan, these periods, from the early 1920s -- probably the best years -- to the war, postwar and the '70s, were, as today, driven by commodity prices.
"As we know, they fluctuate wildly. But when you are hewers of wood and drawers of water, it's always time for some minor optimism when the world actually wants to pay a fair price for wood and water, as it were. At least our resources are more diversified this time.
"The question is whether we can move to areas that are relatively immune from other pressures. The synchrotron is a hopeful example. If you're a scientist and need to use one, there are very few in the world. And we should certainly now be in position to train the doctors, nurses and teachers we need, offering some incentives to stay.
"I can't even guess what the prognosis might be. On how valid and sustainable this growth is, time will only prove. But even someone like me has to admit some progress is being made, since you can actually see the activity going on.
"And that's a nice feeling we haven't seen for a long time."
akellogg@thejournal.canwest.com
© The Edmonton Journal 2007
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