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  #81  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 3:18 PM
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That diagram must include both completed and u/c since there are three u/c projects shown, but then why doesn't it show "The One" as well?
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  #82  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 3:19 PM
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That's weird, actually. I don't know.

Edit: I do now. On-hold due to a work stoppage on some city bylaw violation. Mizrahi's a cowboy.
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  #83  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 3:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Metra system is vast, but the bulk of ridership is on a few lines..
there are 8 "have" metra lines with great to decent ridership, and 3 "have not" metra lines with abysmally low ridership.

and then there's the south shore, which is also pretty low, but technically not a part of metra.




2017 Annual Metra Ridership By Line:

BNSF ----- 16,227,453 (20.6%)
UP-NW --- 10,910,483 (13.9%)
UP-N ------- 9,028,965 (11.5%)
UP-W ------ 8,332,483 (10.6%)
ME --------- 8,149,693 (10.4%)
RI ---------- 7,923,588 (10.1%)
MD-N ------ 6,818,808 (8.7%)
MD-W ----- 6,349,815 (8.1%)

SWS ------- 2,457,418 (3.1%)
NCS ------- 1,684,357 (2.1%)
HC ----------- 727,202 (0.9%)

TOTAL: 78,610,265


SS - ~3,400,000 (not part of Metra)




Quote:
Originally Posted by Centropolis View Post
having extensive, big boy commuter rail lines seem to be real skyscraper fuel for both toronto and chicago. local mass transit is great and essential for cities but these colossal CBD/centralized skyscraper clusters need suburban-fuel. metra seems to have been the real supercharger to keep downtown chicago in the game...i think without it you would have had a half-detroit situation downtown.
metra is a HUGE reason why downtown chicago weathered the deindustrialization dark ages so much better than downtown detroit did.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Jan 14, 2020 at 3:40 PM.
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  #84  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 3:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I don't think any of this is remotely inevitable. I doubt any of this happens in our lifetimes.

Also, Chicago's population is stagnant, not declining. Even assuming it remains stagnant forever (a dubious proposition) it would still take decades of nonstop booming growth for Toronto to match Chicago's population.

Even taking into account the more conservative metro calculations in Canada, the GTA is on track to surpass the Chicago metro area within the next 15-20 years. I sure hope most of us are still alive by then!



Quote:
Originally Posted by Centropolis View Post
having extensive, big boy commuter rail lines seem to be real skyscraper fuel for both toronto and chicago. local mass transit is great and essential for cities but these colossal CBD/centralized skyscraper clusters need suburban-fuel.

Yep, that's why so much of the new office tower development in Toronto is concentrated in the few blocks around Union station - even more so than important subway junctures like Yonge & Bloor or Yonge & Eglinton.
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  #85  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 3:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
Even taking into account the more conservative metro calculations in Canada, the GTA is on track to surpass the Chicago metro area within the next 15-20 years. I sure hope most of us are still alive by then!
I don't think the GTA will add 3 million people in 15-20 years, nor do I think Chicago will be stagnant during that entire period.
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  #86  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 3:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
Huh?

Central Park Tower is America's tallest U/C tower at the moment, and it's in Manhattan.
Hmm. My bad. I must've had the wrong filter on because it showed 9 Dekalb as the tallest under construction now when I looked.
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  #87  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 3:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I don't think the GTA will add 3 million people in 15-20 years, nor do I think Chicago will be stagnant during that entire period.

The GTA is likely over 7 million now, but you're right, my math was off. I was thinking 9.5-7 left us with 1.5 to go.

If we were to compare Chicagoland to the Golden Horseshoe though, it'll likely be closer to that, if not a bit sooner.
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  #88  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 3:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
It's partially occupied and open, though. The lower part of the building has been open for months, so not sure it still counts as U/C.
ahhhh, i see, it's a semantics thing.

i'm in the construction industry, and we consider a project to be "under construction" until all Certificates of Occupancy have been issued.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
9 DeKalb is probably the tallest building in North America under construction and not topped out.
yes, that appears to be true at the moment.
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  #89  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 3:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I don't think the GTA will add 3 million people in 15-20 years, nor do I think Chicago will be stagnant during that entire period.
canada doesn't have much in the way of large metropolitan "relief valves" in the entire eastern half of the country aside from montreal and ottawa which seem to function in sort of different spheres, so it seems entirely possible to me that toronto could do that (or some other seemingly crazy number).
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Last edited by Centropolis; Jan 14, 2020 at 4:09 PM.
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  #90  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 4:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
I don't think the GTA will add 3 million people in 15-20 years, nor do I think Chicago will be stagnant during that entire period.
The official projections for population by the Government of Ontario can be found here:

https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy...ojections/#s3a

They come with a low-growth, median growth and high-growth scenario.

This is their estimate for the Greater Toronto Area (which is Toronto and its immediate suburbs only, it excludes Hamilton, Niagara, Barrie and Kitchener-Guelph)

"The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, with its population increasing by 3.4 million, or 49.6 per cent, from 6.8 million in 2018 to over 10.2 million by 2046. The GTA’s share of provincial population is projected to rise from 47.8 per cent in 2018 to 51.8 per cent in 2046."

The complete area, known as the Greater Golden Horsehoe has a projection, found here in the Province's growth plans, for the year 2041.

https://www.ontario.ca/page/growth-p...ouncil-6412019

"The GGH is a dynamic and diverse area, and one of the fastest growing regions in North America. By 2041, this area is forecast to grow to 13.5 million people and 6.3 million jobs. The magnitude and pace of this growth necessitates a plan for building healthy and balanced communities and maintaining and improving our quality of life while adapting to the demographic shift underway."
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  #91  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 5:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plutonicpanda View Post
I wasn't aware Houston had more skyscrapers than Los Angeles. That is interesting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
Miami likely has more than both
if we're talking 150m buildings, then Miami for sure has more than houston and LA.

miami actually comes in 4th in the US/canada on that metric:


skyscrapers >150m (including U/C):

1. new york - 311
2. chicago - 133
3. toronto - 99
4. miami - 63
5. houston - 39
6. los angeles - 29
7. san francisco - 27
8. boston - 24
9. seattle - 22
10. dallas - 20

source: CTBUH
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Jan 14, 2020 at 5:22 PM.
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  #92  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 5:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Centropolis View Post
canada doesn't have much in the way of large metropolitan "relief valves" in the entire eastern half of the country aside from montreal and ottawa which seem to function in sort of different spheres, so it seems entirely possible to me that toronto could do that (or some other seemingly crazy number).
Yep, that's pretty much correct.

From an American point of view, consider NYC+Dallas+Houston all combined into one city, and then the only other two major cities in the country are Seattle and Boston.

Toronto's in practice American counterpart nowadays is probably more the Texas Triangle than it is Chicago. It's where people relocate to, and where immigrants go.
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  #93  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 5:17 PM
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Montreal could potentially act as a relief valve (after all, it used to be what Toronto now is) but it's not likely, in the current and future political context. (Not necessarily a bad thing.)
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  #94  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 5:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
if we're talking 150m buildings, then Miami for sure has more than houston and LA.

miami actually comes in 4th in the US/canada on that metric:


skyscrapers >150m (including U/C):

1. new york - 311
2. chicago - 133
3. toronto - 99
4. miami - 63
5. houston - 39
6. los angeles - 29
7. san francisco - 27
8. boston - 24
9. seattle - 22
10. dallas - 20

source: CTBUH
Does this include the entire metro area or just city of Miami?
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  #95  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 5:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
Does this include the entire metro area or just city of Miami?
^ those are all just city proper figures.

new york, toronto, and miami would all be bumped up a bit if you did entire metro areas, but the CTBUH doesn't have things listed by MSA.


EDIT:

looking up things manually, i think there are an additional 16 buildings over 150m in metro miami according to the CTBUH:

sunny isles beach - 14
hallandale beach - 1
fort lauderdale - 1


that said, sunny isles beach is ~13 miles north of downtown miami, so including those skyscraper numbers in "miami's skyline" seems a bit dubious to me.

once you're more than 10 miles away from a main skyline cluster, you're getting into the zone of kinda being you're own thing.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Jan 14, 2020 at 5:36 PM.
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  #96  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 5:38 PM
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Considering how small Miami (proper) is, their skyline is pretty insane. It's a wall of residential towers all up and down the waterfront. Then you have all the surrounding cities and towns...
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  #97  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 5:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Centropolis View Post
canada doesn't have much in the way of large metropolitan "relief valves" in the entire eastern half of the country aside from montreal and ottawa which seem to function in sort of different spheres, so it seems entirely possible to me that toronto could do that (or some other seemingly crazy number).

The GTA has been growing by around 150,000/year for the past couple years, so 3 million in 20 years is theoretically possible. Highly unlikely that it'll be sustained though.

After all, it wasn't too long ago where growth was down in the 80-90,000/year range while Alberta was booming and Ontario's economy stagnated. And if nothing else, we're quickly reaching a point where the GTA is prohibitively expensive and infrastructure overburdened which should put a bit of a brake on things.
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  #98  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 5:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Considering how small Miami (proper) is, their skyline is pretty insane. It's a wall of residential towers all up and down the waterfront. Then you have all the surrounding cities and towns...
Its one of the biggest transformations for a city its size, probally in the U.S. in the last 50 years. Like if we look at Miami in 2008 versus now... just 12 years has made a mountainous transformation. Transportation as well, with the addition of rail. Its done quite a lot in the last decade, and 2020 looks like it will see some significant projects rise as well, with a new tallest as well.

The cycle has been slowing down in SoFlo, but its still strong enough to generate continual projects. Like anything else, a period of cooling but I'm hoping it picks up by 2021. Might increase the chance of the 6+ super talls in the pipeline. Tech has been a growing industry for the county, so I'm hoping tech are the future tenants for some of these supertall office towers in the pipeline along with the financial sector.
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  #99  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 6:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Metra system is vast, but the bulk of ridership is on a few lines. GO coverage is kinda pathetic, but has strong ridership. They're probably functionally more similar than different now.

And you could probably make the same observations about Chicago El and Toronto subway.
The L always struck me as odd in terms of its coverage in that there are a couple of instances where lines seem overly close together and other places where there are large gaps. Like the red and green lines in the south where stations like the respective Garfields are only 1.1km apart or the western blue and green lines where their Pulaski stations are only about 1.3km apart. Meanwhile, orange Pulaski is no closer than 5.5km from a station on another line and there's also a big gap between the western green line and the northwestern blue line. I'm assuming there's an interesting story behind it.
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  #100  
Old Posted Jan 14, 2020, 6:04 PM
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Current proposal/construction list for Miami (Note missing some projects but for an idea). Also, only for Miami core, so no Sunny Isles or Miami Beach or surrounding proxy cities. Sunny Isles Beach seeing some significant projects.

Some of these are seeing sales centers rise (taller ones) and some are in demo stage. But still looking optimistic for 2020-2023.


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