DFW area attracting 2 million people by 2030?

[JManc]

Originally Posted by CherryCreek

Overall Tax Burden by State
1 New York

This doesn't surprise me and it's no secret the state is hemorrhaging population as people can't move out of there fast enough. You are bombarded with taxes on all fronts; federal, state, city, village, town, country, school, etc. And you get very little in return.

[jd3189]

That’s one of the main problems with NY State. And to think it doesn’t have to be this way. It was at one point the most populous state, which Buffalo, Rochester, and a few other cities holding their ground against an always dominant NYC. Despite the winters ( which affects all the NE/Midwestern states), I would say that New York is interesting regardless.

The landscape is varied with rolling hills, sizable mountains in the Adirondack and Catskills that can be used for winter sports, and water areas Hudson River valley, Erie Canal, Niagara Falls, and access to two Great Lakes.

Urban wise, you have access to both the NE megalopolis and Canada’s version of it. Not to mention a good amount of small towns.

Weather and opportunities are probably the main dealbreakers. Despite that, I wouldn’t mind living in upstate NY.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by jd3189

Urban wise, you have access to both the NE megalopolis and Canada’s version of it. Not to mention a good amount of small towns.

The allure of the Canadian version probably escapes everyone but the people who actually live in upstate NY. The Quebec City - Windsor corridor (22 million+ people) is still off the radar of most Americans. You'd expect its continued rise to eventually lift upstate NY with it but that hasn't happened yet.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by jd3189

That’s one of the main problems with NY State. And to think it doesn’t have to be this way. It was at one point the most populous state, which Buffalo, Rochester, and a few other cities holding their ground against an always dominant NYC. Despite the winters ( which affects all the NE/Midwestern states), I would say that New York is interesting regardless.

The landscape is varied with rolling hills, sizable mountains in the Adirondack and Catskills that can be used for winter sports, and water areas Hudson River valley, Erie Canal, Niagara Falls, and access to two Great Lakes.

Urban wise, you have access to both the NE megalopolis and Canada’s version of it. Not to mention a good amount of small towns.

Weather and opportunities are probably the main dealbreakers. Despite that, I wouldn’t mind living in upstate NY.

Weather is bad but at least for me, I would have never left had the economy been decent. And I hate the cold. Easier to fixate on long harsh winters with a bombed out economy.

[Crawford]

Also, I'm not clear why immigration to, say, Toronto, would impact the economy in, say Buffalo.

What do Canada's immigration practices have to do with population/economic trends in Upstate NY? An immigrant to Canada cannot easily move to the U.S., and if they did, it isn't clear why they would head immediately next door.

And Upstate NY near Montreal is mostly empty wilderness. Adirondack Park is never gonna see major changes.

[Docere]

Dallas and Houston seem pretty damn similar to me in terms of size and demographics. What's the likelihood of one pulling away from the other?

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Also, I'm not clear why immigration to, say, Toronto, would impact the economy in, say Buffalo.

What do Canada's immigration practices have to do with population/economic trends in Upstate NY? An immigrant to Canada cannot easily move to the U.S., and if they did, it isn't clear why they would head immediately next door.

And Upstate NY near Montreal is mostly empty wilderness. Adirondack Park is never gonna see major changes.

I think it was Richard Florida that came up with the concept of Tor-Buf-Chester lol

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Also, I'm not clear why immigration to, say, Toronto, would impact the economy in, say Buffalo.

What do Canada's immigration practices have to do with population/economic trends in Upstate NY? An immigrant to Canada cannot easily move to the U.S., and if they did, it isn't clear why they would head immediately next door.

And Upstate NY near Montreal is mostly empty wilderness. Adirondack Park is never gonna see major changes.

The state has largely banned commercial development there and thankfully so.

Originally Posted by Docere

Dallas and Houston seem pretty damn similar to me in terms of size and demographics. What's the likelihood of one pulling away from the other?

I think Dallas will eventually pull away; Houston is poorer/more blue collar and still too exposed to oil and gas fluctuations while Dallas has more (non energy) corporate HQ's and seems to be pulling in more. We lost most of ours via mergers and failures.

[lotuseater]

Originally Posted by isaidso

The allure of the Canadian version probably escapes everyone but the people who actually live in upstate NY. The Quebec City - Windsor corridor (22 million+ people) is still off the radar of most Americans. You'd expect its continued rise to eventually lift upstate NY with it but that hasn't happened yet.

I think trade has provided an economic stabilization of Western New York that would not have been there following the rapid disinvestement "rust belt" de-industrialization, of the region from 1970s through the 1990's

trade between Southern Ontario and the US is in the billions per day. much of it going through Niagara / Buffalo. This article : "With NAFTA on table, Canadians tout cross-border trade" By Matt Glynn in the "Buffalo News" (Published May 19, 2017) highlights some of the economic opportunities and existing economic development in western NY State resutling from that trade. https://buffalonews.com/2017/05/19/n...-border-trade/

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Also, I'm not clear why immigration to, say, Toronto, would impact the economy in, say Buffalo.

What do Canada's immigration practices have to do with population/economic trends in Upstate NY? An immigrant to Canada cannot easily move to the U.S., and if they did, it isn't clear why they would head immediately next door.

And Upstate NY near Montreal is mostly empty wilderness. Adirondack Park is never gonna see major changes.

I wasn’t even thinking about that. I was just concerned with tourism and visa related traveling/commuting across the border, similar to what might be going on between Detroit and Windsor, San Diego and Tijuana, El Paso and Ciudad Juarez, and maybe Seattle and Vancouver.


There may never be a stronger urban sprawl connection between Montreal and Plattsburgh, but the land between Toronto and Buffalo is developed sufficiently with a few cities within like Hamilton. It has the potential to increase in growth.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by jd3189

I wasn’t even thinking about that. I was just concerned with tourism and visa related traveling/commuting across the border, similar to what might be going on between Detroit and Windsor, San Diego and Tijuana, El Paso and Ciudad Juarez, and maybe Seattle and Vancouver.

Buffalo is too far from Toronto for daily commuting. And salaries are generally lower in Canada. I don't doubt that some Americans work in Canada but probably not a huge number.

Canada to U.S. commuting is probably more common. I bet you some Canadian nurses work in Buffalo-Niagara, because there's a big salary differential with medical jobs.

[ssiguy]

I think Dallas will continue to grow at a decent clip and significantly faster than the national average over the next 10 years but the rate of growth will slow from it's current dizzying pace.

Dallas has the benefit of being oil rich, low tax, affordable housing, an emigrant magnet, and a younger population and especially those who are still in their reproductive years. The slower growth will come due to a generally much slower growth rate nationwide, far fewer immigrants especially those from Latin America, and a slow but very steady decline in oil production and significance as the world moves to greener technologies.

DFW's significance on the national scale will continue to increase as it quickly catches up and eventually surpasses Chicago although whether it overtakes Chicago in influence is up for debate.

[Antares41]

When the USD to CD currency rates are favorable, Western NY and specifically the Buffalo-Niagara Metro area receives a tremendous boost in retail sales from Canadian shoppers. There are even buses from Canada that stop at specific shopping locales. Also, the Buffalo-Niagara airport also receives a significant amount of Canadian travelers.

[Docere]

Which city is stronger in terms of cultural amenities?

[JManc]

Originally Posted by jd3189

I wasn’t even thinking about that. I was just concerned with tourism and visa related traveling/commuting across the border, similar to what might be going on between Detroit and Windsor, San Diego and Tijuana, El Paso and Ciudad Juarez, and maybe Seattle and Vancouver.


There may never be a stronger urban sprawl connection between Montreal and Plattsburgh, but the land between Toronto and Buffalo is developed sufficiently with a few cities within like Hamilton. It has the potential to increase in growth.

Even if there was, it's poor up there. Plattsburgh had a pretty big set back when the AFB closed years ago and the biggest employers now are probably SUNY Plattsburgh and the nearby prison. Otherwise it's meth central up in that area. I lived up there when I was a kid while my mom was in college.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by lotuseater

I think trade has provided an economic stabilization of Western New York that would not have been there following the rapid disinvestement "rust belt" de-industrialization, of the region from 1970s through the 1990's

trade between Southern Ontario and the US is in the billions per day. much of it going through Niagara / Buffalo. This article : "With NAFTA on table, Canadians tout cross-border trade" By Matt Glynn in the "Buffalo News" (Published May 19, 2017) highlights some of the economic opportunities and existing economic development in western NY State resutling from that trade. https://buffalonews.com/2017/05/19/n...-border-trade/

Good points. On the surface it looks like proximity hasn't had an impact. Western New York is treading water today but could very well be hemorrhaging if if wasn't for the large population right across the border. Over the long term, Western New York's location may start being seen as a positive rather than a negative. Besides lying between 2 big population corridors the area itself has a lot going for it imo.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Buffalo is too far from Toronto for daily commuting. And salaries are generally lower in Canada. I don't doubt that some Americans work in Canada but probably not a huge number.

Buffalo to Toronto is too far today but I doubt we'll be saying the same thing 20 years from now. GO is undergoing a $20 billion upgrade and expansion. Frequent, all day, every day service all the way to Niagara Falls is part of that build out. It's not hard to see that eventually extended right into Buffalo. The global trend of tie ups between cities on different sides of an international border is only gathering steam. Toronto - Buffalo may not be that big of a thing today but Buffalo's future lies there. It will increasingly get sucked into Toronto's economic orbit. Besides, a daily commute from Buffalo to downtown Toronto isn't the gauge of whether one will start significantly impacting the other.

Labour movement? People from Buffalo already move to Toronto for work. I run into them from time to time and the numbers are only going to increase going forward. Even if gross pay is lower (haven't looked into it), there are lots of non-financial considerations that factor in people's decisions. There are more opportunities on the Canadian side. There just is.

Over the long term, Buffalo will benefit from its location more than places like Cleveland or Syracuse.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by JManc

I think Dallas will eventually pull away; Houston is poorer/more blue collar and still too exposed to oil and gas fluctuations while Dallas has more (non energy) corporate HQ's and seems to be pulling in more. We lost most of ours via mergers and failures.

What would you argue is better in Houston over Dallas? If it's not long term economic prospects is it real estate prices, entertainment/culture, etc? Are there benefits for being on the Gulf of Mexico?

[Tom In Chicago]

Originally Posted by isaidso

What would you argue is better in Houston over Dallas? If it's not long term economic prospects is it real estate prices, entertainment/culture, etc? Are there benefits for being on the Gulf of Mexico?

Sure. . . if you like the beach. . .

. . .

[R1070]

New data from Cushman & Wakefield stated that DFW is expected to grow by another 1,393,623 residents between 2020-2029. The area was stated by them to have grown by 1,349,378 between 2010-2019. That's a reasonable amount stated. I'm not sure where the 2 million estimate was mentioned, I haven't seen any projections showing 2 million growth over the next 9 years.

Link: http://dallas.culturemap.com/news/ci...man-wakefield/