Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Where did the people go?

It's Not just "Where did they go?" It's also "Why are people only moving to the South?". Populations are growing in Moncton SJ and Fredericton, but have at best stagnated in the North. This leads to the North losing its percentage of population, even if not losing population.

[adamuptownsj]

The four northerly counties lost 24K-- that's half of Westmorland's gain on its own. They lost almost a Dieppe 2023 worth of people.

Westmorland 91: 115K, 15.9%
Westmorland now: 164K, 19.5%

Kent 91: 31.5K, 4.4%
Kent now: 32.5K, 3.9%

Albert 91: 25.5K, 3.5%
Albert now: 30K, 3.5%

[adamuptownsj]

In the interests of completion, here's the rest.

Carleton 91: 26K, 3.6%
Carleton now: 26.5K, 3.2%

York 91: 82K, 11.3%
York now: 100K, 12%

Sunbury 91: 23.5K, 3.2%
Sunbury now: 28K, 3.3%

Queens 91: 12.5K. 1.7%
Queens now: 10.5K, 1.3%

Kings 91: 62K, 8.6%
Kings now: 73K, 8.7%

Charlotte 91: 26.5K, 3.6%
Charlotte now: 27K, 3.2%

Saint John 91: 81K, 11.2%
Saint John now: 80.5K, 9.6%

Other than York growing its share by nearly 1%, Sunbury and Kings barely improving, and Albert staying the same, all the action is in Westmorland. It'll likely close in on 25% of the provincial population by 2036, and Kent and Albert will see some spillover effect. Saint John is recovering from a long downswing and should break 10% again by the next census. York, Sunbury, and Kings should continue their mild growth.

[adamuptownsj]

Musical chairs update: the last question mark about PC incumbents and new seats has been resolved. Moncton Southwest MLA Sherry Wilson, whose seat was basically split between Greg Turner's Moncton South, and Tammy Scott-Wallace's Sussex-Three Rivers, is running in what was Mike Holland's Albert-Riverview. He's retiring on good terms with the PCs. You don't often see MLAs jump into totally new seats, but the odd reconfiguration of Moncton to create Champdore-Irishtown caused a chain reaction that eliminated Moncton Southwest totally. Not surprised she crossed the river.

[Sandbagger]

I was in Caraquet and Tracadie this past weekend and it felt like a ghost town. Dilapidated houses and empty storefronts everywhere. Maybe in the summer it's a different vibe but it just felt gloomy. Pretty much zero new construction happening. On the other hand the roads and highways up there were immaculate in comparison to what we have in the southeast. Not sure what's going on there.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Where did the people go?

Can probably find a bunch of them in local graveyards.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Sandbagger

On the other hand the roads and highways up there were immaculate in comparison to what we have in the southeast. Not sure what's going on there.

The roads in the southeast have been crap forever.

The last couple of years I've noticed they don't even pretend to mow the grass on the sides of the highway any more (at least on the TCH around Moncton). Once you get to the section maintained by MRDC, things suddenly change, but, even other sections of highway elsewhere in the province maintained by the MOT are in much better shape.

[adamuptownsj]

Roads-as-patronage is a big deal in Gloucester and Kent counties.

[gtsoc]

Dorothy Shephard is the latest PC MLA to announce she will not be re-offering in the upcoming 2024 NB election.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-b...ving-1.7150704

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

Originally Posted by gtsoc

Dorothy Shephard is the latest PC MLA to announce she will not be re-offering in the upcoming 2024 NB election.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-<...r /> 1.7150704

And I don't think she will be the last. I expect Holder and Anderson-Mason to annouce their retirements soon. Plus Fitch has strongly hinted he will retire

[gtsoc]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

And I don't think she will be the last. I expect Holder and Anderson-Mason to annouce their retirements soon. Plus Fitch has strongly hinted he will retire

I am hearing the Liberals have a big name tapped to run in Trevor Holders riding He does not have experience in politics, per se, but is definitely familiar with the workings of a government. I think he would make an excellent Minister of Health

[sailor734]

Pretty common knowledge that it is Dr John Dornan

[adamuptownsj]

Holt and Coon bizarrely out of step with public opinion on rampant open drug addiction and homelessness: tents yes, treatment no. Such a weird thing to lean in on in an election year. Halifax as an example on this issue is shocking. https://tj.news/new-brunswick/new-la...problems-higgs

Liberal Leader Susan Holt said she won’t support a law that allows people with addiction issues to be forcibly removed from the streets, and that there are solutions, but that the government doesn’t want to consider them.

As examples, she pointed to Nova Scotia, which is supplying Arctic tents with heating capacity. Holt also noted Miramichi’s recent move to provide trailers for homeless people, which provide a “private,” safe space.

“I think the premier is out of touch with what’s happening in communities right now, and the best ways to help New Brunswickers,” she said. “We have the minister of mental health talking about the need for community supports and treatment options, and we have the premier and the minister of public safety saying we should put people in jail.”

The Tories’ proposal is “crazy” and “problematic,” Coon said.

“There’s already legislation where people who are a danger to themselves or others to be … taken off the streets,” Coon said. “We’ll see what the bill says, but the way it’s being presented, it sounds like it goes way too far. And it’s not going to solve problems.”

There's a million other things to go after Higgs on, you'd think, but I doubt the average voter wants infinite tents and more drug/fire deaths forever. Who's advising these guys?

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Holt and Coon bizarrely out of step with public opinion on rampant open drug addiction and homelessness: tents yes, treatment no. Such a weird thing to lean in on in an election year. Halifax as an example on this issue is shocking. https://tj.news/new-brunswick/new-la...problems-higgs





There's a million other things to go after Higgs on, you'd think, but I doubt the average voter wants infinite tents and more drug/fire deaths forever. Who's advising these guys?

Well, Holt was Gallant's close advisor so maybe the apple doesn't fall far from the tree............

[NB_ExistsToo]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Holt and Coon bizarrely out of step with public opinion on rampant open drug addiction and homelessness: tents yes, treatment no. Such a weird thing to lean in on in an election year. Halifax as an example on this issue is shocking. https://tj.news/new-brunswick/new-la...problems-higgs





There's a million other things to go after Higgs on, you'd think, but I doubt the average voter wants infinite tents and more drug/fire deaths forever. Who's advising these guys?

I don't know why it's such a shocker they're pushing back. The Cons are treading very closely to what is considered forcible detainment (not saying that's what they're doing). Even if you ignore the potential Charter of Rights concerns, pretty much every piece of literature on Earth states people with addictions aren't going to improve through force.

In Finland, they've tackled their homelessness and addition issues by offering shelters/homes with no strings attached, which seems to have helped extensively. I don't know their program or resources well enough to say it would work here, but I know force has never returned long-term benefits.

edit: also, you mention about "treatment no". I think both parties are completely on board with treatment, how they go about that appears to be the difference. But even addiction facilities in NB are saturated with long wait-lists, so realistically, there should be a push to be able to accommodate more people seeking treatment.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by NB_ExistsToo

I don't know why it's such a shocker they're pushing back. The Cons are treading very closely to what is considered forcible detainment (not saying that's what they're doing). Even if you ignore the potential Charter of Rights concerns, pretty much every piece of literature on Earth states people with addictions aren't going to improve through force.

In Finland, they've tackled their homelessness and addition issues by offering shelters/homes with no strings attached, which seems to have helped extensively. I don't know their program or resources well enough to say it would work here, but I know force has never returned long-term benefits.

edit: also, you mention about "treatment no". I think both parties are completely on board with treatment, how they go about that appears to be the difference. But even addiction facilities in NB are saturated with no wait-lists, so realistically, there should be a push to be able to accommodate more people seeking treatment.

I agree with much of what you say. We should have it so people who reach the decision to seek treatment get admitted in very short order (hours or days not months). Take care of all those who want to be helped before worrying about those that don't.

Also, lets not lose sight of the fact that a certain percentage of the homeless have serious mental health issues as well. We can't even provide quality physical heallthcare for the average New Brunswicker so I'm not sure how realistic it is to suggest big improvements on the mental health side.

[CharlotteCountyLogan]

I just saw that Trevor Holder who is the longest serving MLA has annouced he will retire. This is not suprising at all considering his feuds with the premier. This brings the PC retirement number up to 9 I believe plus Cardy. I think the exodus will end soon with only Anderson-Mason and Fitch flirting with retirement.
Here's a quote from the CBC article "Holder is the tenth PC MLA elected in the 2020 provincial election to either quit or decide not to run in this year's campaign."

[adamuptownsj]

I don't think it's a compelling argument to the median citizen that the junkie screaming on their doorstep needs to be enabled with cash and needles, and otherwise left alone. There's a gigantic quality of life issue affecting a lot of people, often poor, OFF the streets here. Break-ins, trespassing, random attacks, and so on have made previously quiet neighbourhoods unpleasant and unsafe to live in. There's an undercurrent of anger replacing sympathy and tolerance.

And is the Liberal plan basically 1) wait for the person to ask for help 2) give them stuff 3) carry on as-is? Pointing to Halifax as a positive example in this is truly shocking. Waiting for people clearly not in their right minds to have a moment of clarity, die, or commit a violent crime strikes me as callous. Unless they present a proactive plan that doesn't involve endless funding of the nascent 'homeless-industrial complex' and ice fishing shacks on every vacant lot, I don't know if saying 'think of the civil rights of people stealing your barbecue and leaving needles on the playground' will have much pull.

Somewhat editorializing but we've had a developing serious homelessness problem here for what, three years? I had NEVER heard people as viscerally angry at the state of our public spaces and the behaviour of the homeless until very recently. People want a solution. I mean, I'm in a two week long argument with the city over the proximity of a deck post to the property line. Then I go outside and see someone smoking crack 10 meters from St Joe's, a constant stream of nocturnal motorcycle traffic to the Exmouth encampment, and increasingly open prostitution. It's not a fair deal to law abiding people.

And yes, I know the majority of homeless people aren't doing this. But the majority of people in tents downtown sure are. The 'invisible homeless' on couches, on a cot in a friend's garage, or in their cars are clearly not the issue. Conflating the two does not make the first group disappear. The second needs housing and support, the first needs to stop making everyone else's lives worse.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

I don't think it's a compelling argument to the median citizen that the junkie screaming on their doorstep needs to be enabled with cash and needles, and otherwise left alone. There's a gigantic quality of life issue affecting a lot of people, often poor, OFF the streets here. Break-ins, trespassing, random attacks, and so on have made previously quiet neighbourhoods unpleasant and unsafe to live in. There's an undercurrent of anger replacing sympathy and tolerance.

And is the Liberal plan basically 1) wait for the person to ask for help 2) give them stuff 3) carry on as-is? Pointing to Halifax as a positive example in this is truly shocking. Waiting for people clearly not in their right minds to have a moment of clarity, die, or commit a violent crime strikes me as callous. Unless they present a proactive plan that doesn't involve endless funding of the nascent 'homeless-industrial complex' and ice fishing shacks on every vacant lot, I don't know if saying 'think of the civil rights of people stealing your barbecue and leaving needles on the playground' will have much pull.

Somewhat editorializing but we've had a developing serious homelessness problem here for what, three years? I had NEVER heard people as viscerally angry at the state of our public spaces and the behaviour of the homeless until very recently. People want a solution. I mean, I'm in a two week long argument with the city over the proximity of a deck post to the property line. Then I go outside and see someone smoking crack 10 meters from St Joe's, a constant stream of nocturnal motorcycle traffic to the Exmouth encampment, and increasingly open prostitution. It's not a fair deal to law abiding people.

And yes, I know the majority of homeless people aren't doing this. But the majority of people in tents downtown sure are. The 'invisible homeless' on couches, on a cot in a friend's garage, or in their cars are clearly not the issue. Conflating the two does not make the first group disappear. The second needs housing and support, the first needs to stop making everyone else's lives worse.

Well said.

I know that personally I would want government funds spent so some 80 year old doesn't die in an ER waiting room after sitting there for 12 hours rather than on new programs to force help on homeless addicts that don't want help.........and don't get me started on people waiting for months or years for a joint replacement while in constant severe pain .........

Government should worry about adequately fund existing programs before starting new ones.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by CharlotteCountyLogan

I just saw that Trevor Holder who is the longest serving MLA has annouced he will retire. This is not suprising at all considering his feuds with the premier. This brings the PC retirement number up to 9 I believe plus Cardy. I think the exodus will end soon with only Anderson-Mason and Fitch flirting with retirement.
Here's a quote from the CBC article "Holder is the tenth PC MLA elected in the 2020 provincial election to either quit or decide not to run in this year's campaign."

I agree that Holder retiring was pretty much a sure thing. Any word on who is waiting in the wings for the nomination?