2019 Population Estimate U.S. Metropolitan Areas

[C.]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Counties are often fairly arbitrary definitions anyway.

These places are both in Nassau County:

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.7759...7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6236...7i16384!8i8192

Both likely have stagnant or declining populations. The poverty situation is quite different though.

Nassau County - the part of Long Island not in NYC, represents just 7 percent of the metro area's population. Suburban Nassau County is NOT representative of the other areas in the metro area! You just don't get it, do you.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Counties are often fairly arbitrary definitions anyway.

These places are both in Nassau County:

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.7759...7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6236...7i16384!8i8192

Both likely have stagnant or declining populations. The poverty situation is quite different though.

Probably, yeah. But those are very atypical Nassau inner suburbs.

Old Westbury is very wealthy and almost semi-rural despite being an older suburb. Has multiacre zoning and nothing commercial. Probably zero chance of population growth in the coming decades. Its issues are more analagous to the exurban fringe, but with a better location somewhat insulating home values.

Lawrence is an older suburb that is now rapidly becoming an Orthodox Jewish enclave. It might have population growth. There may be some poverty, but mostly due to large household size. It's part of the Five Towns, which are culturally basically Queens. In fact most of the Orthodox schuls are over the Queens line.

[Crawford]

The Five Towns are so Orthodox these days, that basically nothing you see on this commercial street will be open on the Sabbath. And you'll have a hard time finding a non-Kosher restaurant. So not really typical, for Nassau or the metro area.

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6212...7i16384!8i8192

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

They make a lot more sense to me than CSAs, at the very least.

(Aside from a couple weird ones like San Francisco-San Jose or Los Angeles-Riverside being split up into separate metros)

I’m not advocating for CSAs. Both are completely inconsistent, arbitrary garbage.

I support taking a much more scientific approach, one that a population geographer would take. Looking at the core of population density in an area, determining density radii emanating out from that core, and being completely blind to political boundaries.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Counties are often fairly arbitrary definitions anyway.

These places are both in Nassau County:



Both likely have stagnant or declining populations. The poverty situation is quite different though.

Lets look at some LA counties, and LA county is relatively medium in size (area) compared to other CA and western counties.

https://goo.gl/maps/nQoFFusv22MTr89d8

https://goo.gl/maps/UQnfXhsvwWH2b1wq6

https://goo.gl/maps/LDjbdKu6zPt5WuXY7

https://goo.gl/maps/LpNpARQdeRiQtnRu5

https://goo.gl/maps/GzMn6xfohUWHcvWd9

https://goo.gl/maps/gZUSDLUdbcBhBFXn7

Its sort of ridiculous

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by pj3000

I’m not advocating for CSAs. Both are completely inconsistent, arbitrary garbage.

I support taking a much more scientific approach, one that a population geographer would take. Looking at the core of population density in an area, determining density radii emanating out from that core, and being completely blind to political boundaries.

Ideally but as goofy as some of the County based measurements can be they do a relatively good job for the most part.

Even if you get more scientific the bay area is still going to be within a couple thousand of the current CSA count

[JManc]

Originally Posted by chris08876

Incredible figures. Although you guys down in Texas must be feeling that traffic pain compared to 5 years ago. Glad to see great figures for Dallas.

Not only have Houston, DFW and Austin grown a lot, the road construction is unending so yeah, traffic is a horror fest.

[DCReid]

Originally Posted by JManc

Not only have Houston, DFW and Austin grown a lot, the road construction is unending so yeah, traffic is a horror fest.

Why isn't San Antonio growing as fast - or is it?

[N90]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Why isn't San Antonio growing as fast - or is it?

SA was 10th in the US in 2019 growth with 38k. It’s growing pretty fast but gets lost in discussions about TX because DFW, HOU, and ATX all overshadow it.

[Nomad9]

Originally Posted by N90

SA was 10th in the US in 2019 growth with 38k. It’s growing pretty fast but gets lost in discussions about TX because DFW, HOU, and ATX all overshadow it.

Yep. Poor SA isn’t trendy like Austin or massive like DFW/Houston, so it gets overlooked.

Also, Delaware is such an outlier in the northeast/mid-Atlantic. The lower two counties are exploding because of (1) retirees—close to the beach with low taxes—and (2) to a lesser extent, commuters. Of course some commute into the Philly/Wilmington MSA, but from the lower counties it’s possible to super-commute into the DC/Baltimore area.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Why isn't San Antonio growing as fast - or is it?

It is and it and Austin are slowing growing into one another along i35. I just didn't feel like typing out San Antonio.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Nomad9

Yep. Poor SA isn’t trendy like Austin or massive like DFW/Houston, so it gets overlooked.

Also, Delaware is such an outlier in the northeast/mid-Atlantic. The lower two counties are exploding because of (1) retirees—close to the beach with low taxes—and (2) to a lesser extent, commuters. Of course some commute into the Philly/Wilmington MSA, but from the lower counties it’s possible to super-commute into the DC/Baltimore area.

The "Joe Biden" commute?

[Nomad9]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

The "Joe Biden" commute?

Sort of. Biden did Wilmington to DC on Amtrak. These people in lower DE are doing sprawly new construction in a corn field by road to DC.

[Citylover94]

I think it would be interesting if the Census attempted to create an equivalent to New England City and Town Areas (NECTA) for the rest of the country. They are created the same way as the regular MSA designation except that they use towns and cities as the building blocks for the metro areas. They often have different borders and slightly different populations that make more sense because the unit used to make them. The difficulty in using this or other parts of the country is that unlike in New England where aside from the far northern parts of Maine and NH all of the land is contained in towns and cities; whereas, in other areas there are unincorporated areas of counties that would be included in the metro areas.

The NECTA map from the census bureau from 2013. The lightest gray lines are town and city boundaries and the darker dotted grey lines are county boundaries. The grey shaded areas are urban areas.

[liat91]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The NYC area doesn't follow this pattern. The exurban areas have the worst population/economic trends. The inner suburban ring is faring much better than the outer fringe. Westchester is doing better than Fairfield, which is doing better than the inland CT counties, Nassau is doing better than Suffolk, Hudson/Bergen/Essex/Union are faring better than the outer Jersey counties, etc.

There are some metros in the U.S. that follow your pattern. Detroit and Cleveland definitely follow this pattern.

Not sure about doing better. Most of the population increase in the inner counties are immigrants, with a much smaller contingent of upper middle class people, though enough to bring in a lot of noticeable infrastructure improvements. Some wealthy immigrants are buying up condos in Jersey City as well, but also happening on a small scale.

The boom exurbs of NYC are in NEPA. The far outer burbs are very anti development or avoided, due to taxes etc. The middle burbs is where most of the wealth is; NJ wealth belt, Fairfield, CT, Outer Westchester, Princeton area, Suffolk LI Northshore and Northeast Monmouth county. There are a few extremely wealthy inner suburbs.

Outside of Texas, Carolinas, Nashville, Denver, Phoenix, Seattle, Orlando and Tampa metros everything is slowing down.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by liat91

The boom exurbs of NYC are in NEPA.

NE PA has declining population, and silly cheap home prices. It's exactly what I'm talking about. NYC's exurban fringe is stagnant at-best.

[IrishIllini]

TBH I'm surprised PA is growing. NYS, NJ, and CT are all flat and PA's economy is less robust than all of them.

Are any cities in the Midwest or Northeast pushing their urban fringe further into the hinterlands? Maybe Boston?

[Docere]

What are the "inner", "middle" and "outer" suburbs of NYC?

A strict inner could include southern Bergen, southern Westchester and the towns of Hampstead and North Hampstead?

[liat91]

Originally Posted by Crawford

NE PA has declining population, and silly cheap home prices. It's exactly what I'm talking about. NYC's exurban fringe is stagnant at-best.

Pike, Monroe, Northampton and Lehigh all grew between 2017-2018. It’s not a population explosion, but not one of them shrank. Compared to the NJ counties they border, which all shrank.

All other exurban areas shrank or had no growth with the exceptions of Ocean county, NJ and Orange County, NY. Both of which have large orthodox Jewish populations with high fertility/growth rates, without which, would have shrank.

So yes, NEPA is pretty much the only exurban growth area for NY, generally.

[JManc]

2021 Population Estimates of U.S. Metropolitan Areas could be a little higher....

The World Could Be Running Out of Condoms Because of Pandemic

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...se-of-pandemic