Salt Lake City: Official Development News Thread - Part 5

[Viperlord]

I just received a message from one of my clients, who is President of one of the largest public home builders.....

The main points from his e-mail message are:
-"traffic is down 30+% month-over-month.
-"Apartments have slowed. People still, and maybe more so now, want to get out of apartments. Households are still being created"

[jubguy3]

Originally Posted by bob rulz

I really really hope that you're wrong.

I just read that China went their first day without a single confirmed new case of Covid-19 yesterday. That's just 4 months after their first confirmed case and shows that there is some light at the end of the tunnel.

China, despite brewing the perfect conditions for the virus to spread in humans, has done a tremendous job of controlling the virus every possible way and has thrown its massive resources behind the effort. They are basically the only people on earth to be able to expand their manufacturing capacities that much and to manage the crisis from a top-down approach.

But it has come at a cost. Some of the more conservative estimates like Goldman Sachs are saying their economy has shrunk 9 percent and the bleaker predictions are saying their Q1 growth is -41%. It is hard to know for sure until official numbers start getting put out by the Communist Party. Deutsche Bank is saying that we are about to experience the worst recession since world war II. Economies around the world are withering away even with massive stimulus being pumped into the economy with reserves running low and no end in sight to the crisis. Eventually all of this will come around to impacting SLC’s retail marked as spending plummets and investments go down. We could be seeing many projects put on hold.

[bob rulz]

I just have a hard time believing that the impacts will be worse over the long-term than the Great Recession. It will probably be worse by numbers but for a much shorter period of time.

But hey, I'm not an economist. I also don't know if economists really know either. So much of economics is speculative.

[bob rulz]

Originally Posted by jedikermit

Those of you that aren't local, or haven't seen much coverage of the earthquake damage:

The Rio Grande Depot had significant damage on the interior -- a lot of the plaster mouldings and other historic details in the great hall were destroyed, I'm not sure if the building has been cleared for the offices to move back in yet.

A mobile home/trailer park in West Valley City had 48 homes either severely damaged or destroyed.

Magna (nearest the epicenter of the earthquake, and the high school I teach at) had a lot of historic brick buildings on their Main Street impacted. Much of that street is vacant, but some of the bars and restaurants that were still toughing it out took some big hits. Cyprus High School (my school) had a lot of the bricks peel off the sides of the building. If school had been in session, there would have been a lot of kids injured or worse. 7:09 AM they're all clustered around the outsides of the building or on their way in; it would have been a catastrophe.

I know most of the attention is downtown (and I'm glad we didn't have a crane collapse or anything worse) and on dudes losing their trumpets and whatnot, but there have been impacts not as reported on as much.

Thanks for this. It scared me enough in the Liberty Wells area, but I had no damage in my house, just a couple of things falling off shelves. People in the Magna area probably had a lot of damage to possessions, and being in a mobile home during something like this is especially bad as evidenced by the damage to the mobile home park there.

I certainly do think that it was just a few points of magnitude away from being really destructive. This was a nice wake-up call to all the people who think that the earthquake threat in Utah is overblown.

[delts145]

Thought you guys might get a kick out of seeing this. This historic parking garage in downtown L.A. actually was built to look like this. There are now plans to redevelop it into office space. Wouldn't it be great if they would give the old Walker Bank garage this curtain treatment?

Originally Posted by Tiorted9

Here is a plan to repurpose a parking garage into office space:

https://commercialobserver.com/2020/...ersion/#slide0

[delts145]

Maybe this will be a shorter term disaster. Good news regarding the treatment of corona coming out on the latest news this evening. "Hydroxychloroquine", used since 1945 as a treatment for malaria is showing huge promise in nullifying the negative respiratory effects of corona. Worldwide positive reports from all over the globe are suddenly coming in with very hopeful results. Latest news from New York is that California is even showing good results in treatment of patients who are only pre-symptomatic.

[jubguy3]

Originally Posted by delts145

Maybe this will be a shorter term disaster. Good news regarding the treatment of corona coming out on the latest news this evening. "Hydroxychloroquine", used since 1945 as a treatment for malaria is showing huge promise in nullifying the negative respiratory effects of corona. Worldwide positive reports from all over the globe are suddenly coming in with very hopeful results. Latest news from New York is that California is even showing good results in treatment of patients who are only pre-symptomatic.

That is my hope for all of this too. Many rare infectious diseases are difficult to treat simply because there are few cases of them to guide clinical decisions. Hopefully with a laser focus on this disease for the next year we can identify and test treatments faster than we expected.

[Merewether]

For those still out and about at appropriate distances perhaps these self-guided tours from Preservation Utah will provide inspiration. Could also be an in-house review for those more constrained in their movements.

https://preservationutah.org/experie...our-brochure-2

[Old&New]

Originally Posted by Utah_Dave

I wonder if the Theater on Main Street that we have talked about suffered more damage. Perhaps the earthquake makes the decision to demo the theater easier. There has been quite a bit of water damage to buildings due to pipe bursts. Any project that hasn’t started wont for some time now. It will be interesting to see how much demand for housing slows and how pricing reacts. There will be pent up demand 3-7 years out and perhaps the start of another building boom around then. It’s hard to wrap your head around all the problems this will pose to the economy and the way our government can respond to it. I hope we can finish a few of the projects in process. I’m worried about Liberty Sky finishing, just my opinion though.

Also Jugbug, is the 50% fatality rate accurate for those who require ICU treatment accurate? Can you break that down further for different age groups?

Why would you still want to demo the Pantages Theater? That highrise proposal is now dead in the water.

More important questions are:

What's to become of the Convention Center Hotel and Convention Center in general if we can't hold any conventions?

What's to become of the half completed airport with possible damage from an earthquake at a time when the airline industry cannot support itself, let alone pay airport fees meant to pay down the bonds?

[Stenar]

Originally Posted by Old&New

Why would you still want to demo the Pantages Theater? That highrise proposal is now dead in the water.

More important questions are:

What's to become of the Convention Center Hotel and Convention Center in general if we can't hold any conventions?

What's to become of the half completed airport with possible damage from an earthquake at a time when the airline industry cannot support itself, let alone pay airport fees meant to pay down the bonds?

It may delay phase 2 of the airport by a year or so, but the first phase is more like 90+% completed, not "half completed."

[billbillbillbill]

Originally Posted by Old&New

What's to become of the half completed airport with possible damage from an earthquake at a time when the airline industry cannot support itself, let alone pay airport fees meant to pay down the bonds?

If anything, the earthquake should be a big reminder of why they are building the new airport in the first place. The sooner they are not using those 1960's era concourses the better.

The new terminal and concourses are practically done. They just have a few more jet bridges to complete, paving of the area where terminal E was, and finish the circle ramps to the new parking garage. During a tour a few months ago, they were already testing the baggage screening areas and soon to be installing the TSA infrastructure. Short term it is going to be painful but SLC is definitely behind this and I sure hope they don't have any interruptions.

Also, 3 great drone shots from the end of Feb. were posted on teh airport website and if you click then then open in a new tab, they are very high resolution (I wouldn't dare try posting them on here!)

https://www.slcairport.com/thenewslc...gress-gallery/

[Makid]

Originally Posted by Old&New

Why would you still want to demo the Pantages Theater? That highrise proposal is now dead in the water.

More important questions are:

What's to become of the Convention Center Hotel and Convention Center in general if we can't hold any conventions?

What's to become of the half completed airport with possible damage from an earthquake at a time when the airline industry cannot support itself, let alone pay airport fees meant to pay down the bonds?

Even if for some reason that the virus restrictions were extended for 2 years, housing is still needed, the Airport needed to be reconstructed and things will return to normal.

The only impact on the housing side will be for housing in the lower affordable range, 60% and lower. These units are primarily workers at the restaurants, bars, and retail positions that will be impacted by prolonged isolation. Market Rate housing and those at 70% and up for AMI generally are able to work from home and are very likely to see nearly zero short or long term impact. These people will still need housing.

International migration will decrease, we may even see a decrease in migration between the States but Utah does get most of its growth internally. This growth will increase as people are working at home. Close confinement has been shown to spur baby booms 9 months later.

The only project either under construction or planned that will see any potential longer term impact will be the CCH. Even then, the convention and meeting industry will return fairly quickly. Costs will come down as convention centers seek to have conventions return.

This return will help ensure that airlines are quick to respond. This will be on top of all the families that will take vacations to cure their cases of cabin fever.

Overall, I think there will be minimal impacts to projects and the population. I do think that there will be a push towards medicare for all (universal healthcare) and paid time off for all workers. We may even see a lasting form of a basic income.

These protections will help the lower income people while also boosting retail and restaurants and bars as people will have more disposable income. This will help to boost the overall economy and speed up the overall recovery.

[Old&New]

Originally Posted by Makid

Even if for some reason that the virus restrictions were extended for 2 years, housing is still needed, the Airport needed to be reconstructed and things will return to normal.

The only impact on the housing side will be for housing in the lower affordable range, 60% and lower. These units are primarily workers at the restaurants, bars, and retail positions that will be impacted by prolonged isolation. Market Rate housing and those at 70% and up for AMI generally are able to work from home and are very likely to see nearly zero short or long term impact. These people will still need housing.

International migration will decrease, we may even see a decrease in migration between the States but Utah does get most of its growth internally. This growth will increase as people are working at home. Close confinement has been shown to spur baby booms 9 months later.

The only project either under construction or planned that will see any potential longer term impact will be the CCH. Even then, the convention and meeting industry will return fairly quickly. Costs will come down as convention centers seek to have conventions return.

This return will help ensure that airlines are quick to respond. This will be on top of all the families that will take vacations to cure their cases of cabin fever.

Overall, I think there will be minimal impacts to projects and the population. I do think that there will be a push towards medicare for all (universal healthcare) and paid time off for all workers. We may even see a lasting form of a basic income.

These protections will help the lower income people while also boosting retail and restaurants and bars as people will have more disposable income. This will help to boost the overall economy and speed up the overall recovery.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...s-covid-135579

[ThePusherMan]

Just went to Harmon's for groceries. People are being cautious but not panicked which was good to see. Crews were absolutely still working on Tower 8.

[Stenar]

I got an email from the airport a week ago saying:

"After weeks of intensive testing, The New SLC baggage inspection system is close to receiving final TSA acceptance and is now awaiting final commissioning...well in advance of the Sept. 15 opening day.

Testing was performed under conditions approaching peak periods expected at The New SLC. About 70 staff were involved in pushing the system to reach its capacity of 3,360 bags per hour...."

Originally Posted by billbillbillbill

...

The new terminal and concourses are practically done. They just have a few more jet bridges to complete, paving of the area where terminal E was, and finish the circle ramps to the new parking garage. During a tour a few months ago, they were already testing the baggage screening areas and soon to be installing the TSA infrastructure. Short term it is going to be painful but SLC is definitely behind this and I sure hope they don't have any interruptions.

...

[bob rulz]

Salt Lake City has conducted extensive surveys on some of the historic buildings in Magna and Salt Lake after the earthquake and found damage to many of them. A few older houses also have suffered some damage. It seems it hit us a bit harder than many of us thought initially. They do seem optimistic that all of the damaged buildings will be able to be saved though as the structural damage is overall relatively minor.

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/03/...e-citys-brick/

Originally Posted by Old&New

Why would you still want to demo the Pantages Theater? That highrise proposal is now dead in the water.

More important questions are:

What's to become of the Convention Center Hotel and Convention Center in general if we can't hold any conventions?

What's to become of the half completed airport with possible damage from an earthquake at a time when the airline industry cannot support itself, let alone pay airport fees meant to pay down the bonds?

How could we have any possible way of knowing that that proposal is dead in the water? We don't know what things are going to look like on the other side of this pandemic.

[airhero]

Good news is that almost all the construction sites are still in full swing. The airport, marmalade, Block 67, Dixon Place, CCH, 95 State, Liberty Sky, The Exchange all had construction workers on site hard at work yesterday. The only sites I went by that didn't were The Birdie, Park Avenue apt building, and Sugarmont (which was already having problems before COVID).

I hear construction workers (who typically work even through a cold) are being told to stay home if they feel any symptoms, so that may lead to some delays, but as long as construction sites remain operational I think we will be okay. I do, however, think there will be delays for projects that aren't permitted yet.

[FullCircle]

Good to hear.

Here is an op ed written by a Stanford epidemiologist about the viral outbreak. I'll try not to rant or get political, but most of what we hear in the news is spin one way or another, and it's odd to me that conservative versus liberal opinion can be so different when talking about something as apolitical as a virus. This seems to me to be an educated and honest opinion about the reality of what we're dealing with and the inevitable tradeoffs for any action or inaction we take on the matter.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

[delts145]

Originally Posted by FullCircle

Good to hear.

Here is an op ed written by a Stanford epidemiologist about the viral outbreak. I'll try not to rant or get political, but most of what we hear in the news is spin one way or another, and it's odd to me that conservative versus liberal opinion can be so different when talking about something as apolitical as a virus. This seems to me to be an educated and honest opinion about the reality of what we're dealing with and the inevitable tradeoffs for any action or inaction we take on the matter.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

There are a number of the most listened to talking heads, politicians, and epidemiologists who are sounding that very same alarm over the past couple of days, that we could very well be pushing a cure that is far worse than the actual disease. That also as of yesterday seems to have become a very pronounced train of thought with the White House. What seems about to happen is this. Get the testing and certain anecdotal treatments up to speed. Yes, continue to exercise extreme caution and isolating measures amongst the elderly and those whose health is at a compromised risk. Allow the overwhelming majority of the healthy population in Middle America to return to some semblance of restarting the economy. I think we're going to see a lot of moves to restart the economy amongst the general populous over the next couple of weeks. This will be accompanied by targeted restrictions toward those who are more at risk.

It will be interesting to see how the communist government of China is dealt with over the next while once we have pulled together a semblance of recovery. One thing has become very clear. We can trade with China fine. However, we can never allow any nation particularly a totalitarian one to monopolize the manufacturing that affects our security and continued existence..

[Rileybo]

The large print rendering of Liberty Sky has disappeared from the construction site, hopefully the design hasn’t been downgraded again.